Byes: Houston, Minnesota

Truths

“When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” - Arthur Conan Doylere

1) Christian McCaffrey’s fantasy value is the highest it will be all season and this could be a great sell-high moment.

Probably true. I have many shares of CMC, but I also have some concerns. The main issue is that he isn't running the ball that well and he hasn't run for a touchdown this season. He owns a career-worst 3.1 ypc. My worry is exemplified by a recent first-and-goal situation. The 49ers had it at the 3-yard line against the Rams and gave him the ball on first down. He rushed for two yards. They didn't give him the ball again (they also didn't get the ball into the end zone). McCaffrey's current elite fantasy value is tied to his receiving work. What happens when George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk all return from their injuries? Will McCaffrey's receiving workload shrink? I think... yes.

2) Emari Demercado's mental error was very fantasy expensive.

True. When Adonai Mitchell dropped the ball before the goal line that likely had little effect on fantasy owners as Mitchell is rostered in just 1% of all leagues. But after James Conner suffered a season-ending injury in Week 4, Demercado ended up on 59% of all rosters and started in most of them against a Titans team ranked 29th in RB fantasy points allowed. His goal line drop will likely have lasting effect on his fantasy value, if you saw the chewing out head coach Gannon gave him on the sidelines. As a reference, when Mitchell dropped the ball in Week 4 he played 54 snaps, but this Sunday he played just six offensive snaps. The Cardinals "other" back, Michael Carter saw more rushing attempts (18) this week as the first and second down back and the workload division may be more disproportionate in Week 6 versus Indianapolis. Even Zonovan "Bam" Knight (5) saw more touches than Demercado (3).

3) There might be a changing of the workload in Carolina when Chuba Hubbard (calf) returns from injury.

Fact. It's hard to dismiss the 206 yards rushing and 234 combined yards former Cowboy Rico Dowdle produced against the Dolphins last Sunday. Over the first three games when both backs were healthy the splits were; 58.1% Hubbard, 25.7% Dowdle and 16.2% Trevor Etienne. That's likely to be more balanced between the top-two backs when Hubbard returns. A tasty matchup with the generous Dallas run defense (ranked 28th) and maybe a little revenge motive for Dowdle makes this a great opportunity if the Panthers are without Hubbard in Week 6.

4) The difference between real world football and fantasy football has never been more evident than in the results from Justin Fields.

Fields is averaging a career-high 23 FPts/G (ranking 10th), yet the New York Jets are a winless football team (0-5). In fact, for his career, Fields is 0-26 when his defense gives up 21 points or more, whether that was in Chicago, Pittsburgh or New York. The once-great Jets defense is allowing 31.1 ppg in 2025 and have yet to recover an opponent's fumble or pick off an errant pass. Fields may help your fantasy team, but the Jets win column, not so much.

5) Quinshon Judkins can be a top-10 fantasy running back… when he becomes a bigger part of the passing game.

Judkins has the running part down pretty good (72-347-2) over four games for 86.8 yards-per-game average which ranks fifth overall, but he's third in his running back room in targets behind Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson. When/if he takes over the receiving work, he can become a top-10 fantasy back.

Lies

“It's discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and how few by deceit.” - Noël Coward

1) In Week 3, I was wrong when I said Ashton Jeanty was closer to Nancy Drew than Maurice Jones-Drew.

Over the last two weeks, the team has made a much better effort to get him the ball in space and it shows as he's averaged 5.86 yards-per-rush and 8.43 yards-per-reception. That's much better than the 3.06 yards-per-rush and 0.6 yards-per-reception over the first three games. MJD finished his rookie season ranked eighth and averaging 17.1 FPts/G versus 15.4 FPts/G for Jeanty through five games, so he still has work ahead of him, but he's looked much better recently.

2) The reason the Super Bowl Champions' offense is sputtering is because of Jalen Hurts and OC Kevin Patullo.

No, it's much more basic than that. The reason the Eagles offense is averaging 25 ppg (11th) is the offensive line play hasn't been up to its usual standards. The primary issue is health. Right tackle Lane Johnson has been dealing with a shoulder issue. Left guard Landon Dickerson injured a knee in training camp and an ankle in Week 5 and Jordan Mailata dealt with a concussion at the beginning of the season. The Eagles live and die with their offensive line. They opened huge holes for Barkley last season and allowed Jalen Hurts extra time to find receivers. That hasn't been the case in 2025. Until they get healthy, the offense will sputter. You might be able to "buy low" on some quality talent right now.

3) Derrick Henry has finally hit the wall at age 31.

I think it's a false statement, though I am concerned. The real problem is he's not involved in the passing game and with the Ravens' defense allowing a league-worst 177 points (35.4 ppg), they are always behind on the scoreboard and he's finding himself on the sidelines watching Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell. Last season, Henry was on the field for 48.9% of the time in game the Ravens lost and 61% in games they won. The ratio is similar so far this season. If Baltimore can't play with a lead, Henry's fantasy value will continue to be stifled.

4) Brock Bowers is still an elite fantasy tight end.

Physically, Bowers (knee) has all the tools to be an elite tight end, but he's being done in by his quarterback. Bowers is averaging just 4.75 receptions for 56.3 yards and has not scored yet this season. The issue is his quarterback, Geno Smith, has never had a tight end of this caliber and has never used his tight ends. In his three full seasons as the starter in Seattle, his tight ends never caught more than 50 passes, produced more than 500 yards or scored more than four touchdowns. None of his tight ends averaged even eight fantasy points-per-game. The question you have to ask yourself is whether Smith can quickly learn to lean on his tight end. If you don't believe this, trade Bowers while his name still means something.

5) Jake Ferguson can continue at this pace, which has him leading the position in fantasy points accumulated over the first five weeks (86.2).

Sorry, but his peak fantasy value is right now and he can only go in one direction... back to low-end TE1. Notice that Ferguson didn't turn into an elite tight end until CeeDee Lamb hit the IR with a high ankle sprain. In his first two games alongside Lamb and George Pickens, Ferguson produced 7.3 points and 16.8 points. Good, but not elite. In the three games without Lamb, Ferguson has averaged 10 targets, nine receptions and 20.7 fantasy points-per-game. Lamb has yet to practice, but has resumed rehab work, so could return as early as Week 6, but most likely will be back for Week 7 against division rival Washington. Ferguson has one more game of elite production and then back to "normal." Plan accordingly.