When the news dropped that All-Pro receiver Davante Adams would
reunite with college Derek Carr in Las Vegas last offseason, it
was practically inevitable that the quarterback who threw for
4,804 would only improve. However, that was not the case.
Adams did his thing, becoming an All-Pro once again, but Carr
struggled when searching for other receivers. In 15 games, Carr
threw for 3,522 yards, 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Removing
Adams from the mix, Carr threw for 2,006 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Carr signed a four-year deal in the offseason with New Orleans,
giving him a much different receiving corps. Chris Olave was among
the best rookie receivers last season and when healthy (that’s
a big ask), Michael Thomas has been one of the best in the league.
Thomas has barely played the last three seasons, but did shatter
records during his last full season in 2019. Coming into his age
30 season, injuries have lowered his ceiling and his fantasy value.
However, his experience makes him a very capable receiver and
gives Carr a viable second option in the passing game.
Carr has only topped 30 passing TDs once his career (2015) and
is coming off a career-low in completion percentage (60.8%). He
doesn’t bring much in the rushing department either - barely topping
100 rush yards the last two seasons - which is why he’s being
valued as a middling QB2 in fantasy leagues. In most redraft leagues,
he’ll likely be taken as one of the last bench quarterbacks or
perhaps go undrafted.
Kamara recently pleaded no contest to a misdemeanor battery charge
stemming from an incident in 2022 and will have to pay $100,000
to the victim. We are currently awaiting word from the league
on any disciplinary action.
Last year was the first of his six-year career that Kamara didn’t
make the Pro Bowl. He was a top-10 fantasy running back every
year during that span, but last season he finished 16th as he
only scored 4 touchdowns despite 280 touches. Inconsistent quarterback
play from Jameis Winston who suffered a season-ending back injury
in Week 3 and Andy Dalton - 18 touchdowns and 9 interceptions
in 14 games – didn’t help matters.
Kamara excels in the receiving game and he’ll need Carr to return
to his 2021 form, in order to maximize his fantasy potential.
He’ll also need to battle Jamaal Williams and rookie Kendre Miller
for touches all the while dodging Roger Goodell’s discipline hammer.
These factors are keeping Kamara’s fantasy value in check during
drafting season but he does have low-end RB1 upside in PPR leagues
should he cleanly navigate these obstacles.
Jamaal Williams made a huge fantasy impact last season with the
Detroit Lions, finishing as the RB touchdown king with 17 scores.
However, the majority of those touchdowns were from the goal line
as Lions’ quarterback Jared Goff was the main catalyst when
driving down the field.
Williams still ran for the 10th-most yards in the league (1,066),
but he finds a new home in New Orleans. He’s clearly good
enough to be a starter, but that’s Kamara’s job. Wait
a minute…this sounds familiar. When Kamara was a rookie,
he split carries with Mark Ingram. Ingram got the handoffs and
Kamara hauled in receptions. They both made the Pro Bowl. It’s
uncertain if the Saints will attempt a similar system, especially
since Sean Payton is no longer the coach, but it could be a perfect
match.
This scenario is complicated by rookie Kendre
Miller who could earn playing time with a solid training camp
and be a thorn in the side of both Williams and Kamara. It’s highly
unlikely for Williams to repeat his monstrous TD season from a
year ago, even with a Kamara suspension, and the battle for touches
doesn’t give bode well for a high-end ranking, making Williams
more of an RB 3/4 in fantasy leagues.
WR Chris Olave
(2022 WR Rank – No.24, 13.3 FPts/G)
Chris Olave was hoping to break out last season. The rookie finished
with the 17th-most yards in the league (1,042), but only found
the endzone four times. However, he had one thing fantasy managers
drool over: consistency. Olave finished under 10 fantasy points
just four times in 15 games, and never had under seven fantasy
points. This is crucial and made Olave a reliable start every
week.
Despite the consistency, he only had two games over 20 fantasy
points in PPR scoring which was heavily impacted by his lack of
touchdowns. If he remains the No.1 option in the Saints passing
game and gets a little help from the TD variance gods, he has
the potential to be a WR1 by midseason. A return to form by Michael
Thomas could also be a threat to Olave’s success but it
makes sense to side with youth in this situation.
Michael Thomas was simply a nightmare for defensive backs in
2019. He finished with an NFL record 149 receptions, 1,725 yards
and nine touchdowns. Chris Godwin and Julio Jones tied for the
second-most fantasy points by a receiver that season with 274.1.
Thomas had 374.6.
By now you know the story. A rash of injuries kept Thomas largely
off the field the next three seasons and the NFL community believes
the 30-year-old has passed his prime as a result. They could be
right. Thomas is reportedly healthy ahead of training camp but
is far from being valued as a high-end fantasy asset, largely
being taken in the WR40 range.
With that being said, if he’s able to get out of the gates
quickly and stay on the field, he may have the opportunity to
become a star once again. Olave is expected to lead the Saints
in targets, but Thomas is a worthy option in the middle-to-late
rounds as you fill out your wide receiver depth.
Shaheed was another Saints rookie receiver who defied expectations
last season. New Orleans rotated a plethora of options attempting
to fill the Michael Thomas void, but eventually Shaheed carved
out his role as an explosive threat with a high aDOT. Sure, his
No. 73 fantasy rank didn’t knock your socks off, but he
only started six games (played 13 total), hauling in 28 receptions
for 488 yards and two touchdowns. His yards per catch numbers
were solid (17.4), all on low target volume (34) which is quite
impressive.
He’s shaping up to be the third wide receiver once again
in 2023 but we should expect his numbers to rise with more play
volume. Still, the return of Michael Thomas will keep Shaheed
relegated to the final rounds of most fantasy drafts and he’ll
likely need an injury to either Olave or Thomas to become a reliable
weekly starter.
Among tight ends last season, Juwan Johnson was 19th in receptions
(42), 16th in yards (508), but third in touchdowns (7) which shows
you how much the Saints value Johnson’s role in the redzone and
why fantasy managers shouldn’t overlook him despite the lurking
threat of Taysom
Hill. Hill is designated as a tight end in a lot of leagues
and his usage as a QB/RB/TE is a thorn in the side to all the
other Saints offensive players.
Still, Olave, Thomas, Kamara and even Shaheed are expected to
get a plethora of targets, but Johnson is a worthy late-round
fantasy draft pick, as a backup tight end due to his valuable
role in the offense. If Carr gets him more involved in the passing
game, Johnson could squeeze into the low-end TE1 conversation
in 12-man leagues by mid-season.
