I spend the majority of my bankroll in cash games and multipliers
with the goal of slowly and steadily building up my pot, with the
occasional entry in million dollar GPP’s in hopes of hitting
on a golden ticket of riches.
Considering the fact that I am writing this column and not driving
down the pacific coast highway in a new Porsche, one can easily
figure out that I have yet to hit the big payday.
Although the dream of fantasy millions seems all but unattainable
and that Porsche will need to be earned the old fashion way, I
feel confident in my conservative strategy of bankroll building
using the following strategy that I call fantasy layering.
Each week I try to identify two to three foundation wide receivers
or running backs that will give me a high floor and high celling
of production regardless of cost. The goal is to find a foundation
player at a discount, but like in the case of Todd Gurley in Week
10 or Antonio Brown in Week 9, I feel confident paying even the
highest of salary for a consistent performer with a great matchup.
Once those two to three foundation players have been selected,
I create three fantasy teams with alternate surrounding casts
and enter them in multiplier games, typically $10 multipliers
that pay out $100.
With the remaining budget, I look to fill my roster with other
medium to low cost wide receivers who are target monsters and
will benefit from the full point per reception scoring on DraftKings.
I also look for home run hitting players who are boom or bust
candidates, as I have already built a foundation of core players
to give me a solid baseline of points.
For the quarterback position, I fill one roster with the lowest
cost and highest upside play, which for this past week was clearly
Kirk
Cousins. I fill one roster with a medium cost quarterback
who has a decent salary considering his recent consistent play,
which I chose Derek
Carr at home against Minnesota. And for the third and final
roster I pick a high priced quarterback who should deliver top
tier points, despite forcing me to round out the rest of the team
with cheap roster fillers. This past week I chose Aaron
Rodgers at home against the Lions.
The goal with this strategy is that investing $30 in three games
with a possible payout of $300 will hopefully result in at least
one of the three rosters placing in the money. For this to work,
you need to have your core players hit their expected production,
and the ancillary players on at least one of the three teams to
break out.
I won three multipliers using this strategy in Week 9, netting
a modest $90 on three and five dollar contests. This week did
not pan out as well, as DeAngelo Williams at home against one
of the worst run defenses in proved to be a mistake.
The following is a review of one of my lineups using my layering
strategy. In this particular case, I placed 792 out of 6810 teams,
missing the $100 payout by only three points.
Quarterback: Aaron
Rodgers Points on DraftKings: 25.12
Grade: B-
For my expensive but no-brainer quarterback play for the week
I struggled between Aaron Rodgers at home or Tom Brady on the
road against the Giants. Both plays seemed to be safe plays to
get at least 20 points, but I opted for Rodgers and the $1,100
savings he afforded me to use on other players. Rodgers did give
me top 5 production at the quarterback position and kept me close
to the top players in the contest, however, 300 yards and 2 touchdowns
was a disappointment considering he had a plus matchup at home
against the Lions.
The two core players I selected for all three of my layered lineups
were Williams and Gurley, and both players disappointed to the
tune of only 25.8 combined points. Gurley was ok with just under
100 total yards and a touchdown for 17.9 points, but Williams
killed me with only 7.9 points on 69 total yards and no scores.
My logic on Williams seemed sound as he was playing at home against
the league’s worst run defense and would be relied heavily
upon with Landry Jones under center. I thought he would have a
high floor based on the fact that Jones would dump down passes
to him on a regular basis, even if he didn’t manage to rush
for 100 yards or get a touchdown.
This play proved to be my downfall and cost me the $100 payout,
as I only needed 12 points from him to cash. Cheaper options like
LeGarrette Blount, Lamar Miller, and Jonathan Stewart would have
been a better play. Heck, even Dexter McCluster would have given
me the win. As the old adage goes, hindsight is 20/20.
In my fantasy layering strategy with a roster of high priced
core running backs, it is important to select mid-value wide receivers
who are target monsters. The idea is that even if the player does
not catch a receiving touchdown, his volume of catches will provide
a high floor of production to keep you close to the cash threshold.
My goal here is to get an average of 20 points per player, with
the hope that one of the three wide receivers will bust out with
a huge game. Adams and Evans failed to score, but their 18 combined
catches and 200 receiving yards more than made up for their lack
of TD production. Robinson came through with a TD despite his
poor volume and receiving yardage. Overall, I can’t complain.
Tight End: Jordan
Reed Points on DraftKings: 17.9
Grade: A
With a salary of only $4,600 and a choice matchup at home against
the lowly Saints, Reed seemed like a slam dunk this week. His
45.8% draft ownership rate reflects the fact that I was not alone
on my assumption. I must admit that although he did come through
with 17.9 fantasy points, I thought the majority of his production
would come via volume and yards, not touchdowns. Luckily for me
two of his three receptions for 29 yards came in the end zone.
Flex: Ryan
Mathews Points on DraftKings: 12
Grade C
At this point in building my lineup I had $3,700 to spend on
a flex play and I opted for Mathews over some receiving options
based solely on a gut feeling Mathews would score a touchdown
for a third-straight week. My gut proved to be right as Mathews
vultured a TD from Murray, but Mathews disappointed overall because
he left the game early with a concussion.
Defense: Philadelphia Points on DraftKings: 7
Grade: B-
Philadelphia at home against a struggling Miami team appeared
to be the best low-cost defensive play for the week. The Eagles
managed four sacks and a safety, but they did not give me a much
needed defensive score. In the expensive quarterback lineup finding
a defense can be a challenge. In hindsight the Redskins were the
top inexpensive play, but I failed to see that based on the fact
that Drew Brees had been on fire.
Conclusion
This particular lineup and my other two layered rosters for Week
10 did not pay off because DeAngelo Williams delivered a dud as
one of my two foundation players. This is the risk you run when
you use this strategy. However, I still almost salvaged the day
because of the above average points I received from Aaron Rodgers
and the consistent, but not great games from my high volume WR’s
and TE.
I managed to hit on all three of my layers in the previous week
and I hope to continue to cash going forward. It may not be the
best way to win the million dollar pot we all dream about and
some people may find flaws in the logic, but I believe it can
prove to be a solid strategy for bankroll building.
