Death, Taxes, and the sun rising tomorrow are a few of the clichéd
guarantees in life that we have all come to know. In the unpredictable
NFL, there are very few guarantees aside from the refs blowing calls
in favor of Seattle on Monday Night Football games and Bill Belichick
giving a platitudinous post-game interview with reporters.
There are very few times in the course of a season where a player
comes close to being a guarantee. Tom Brady returning to action
against the Browns was the closest thing to a sure bet this season,
with Brady delivering three touchdowns and 400 yards against one
of the league’s worst pass defenses.
With Arizona coming off a bye and the lowly San Francisco 49ers
rush defense coming to town, running back David Johnson appears
to be the next closest thing to a guarantee for DFS owners, even
with his hefty price tag of $8,400 on DraftKings.
To say that San Francisco has been terrible against the run would
be an understatement. Since 2002, only the 2013 Bears have given
up the same gaudy 5.3 yards per carry the 49ers have allowed to
opposing backs.
In addition to giving up yards on the ground, the Niners are
tied with Cleveland for the most rushing touchdowns allowed this
season with 12, and the Browns have played an extra game against
Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys.
Considering the fact that he has averaged 25.3 points per game,
including 36.5 points against the 49ers in Santa Clara Week 5,
David Johnson should be an absolute dominant force in this matchup.
Now it does beg the question of should you play Johnson and his
hefty price tag in cash games and GPPs, as he will likely garner
a significantly high ownership percentage in both?
My advice would be to fade him in GPP’s and hope that Arizona
takes a commanding lead on defensive and passing scores.
In cash games, his high floor and high ceiling are just too enticing
to pass up.
Here are a few other players I am targeting for Week 10.
It's David Johnson Week. Set him in your
lineups and don't worry about his ownership percentage.
Quarterbacks
H2H/Cash - Aaron Rodgers @ Tennessee ($7,400
on DraftKings)
A much maligned player in the fantasy football industry, Rodgers
has been surprisingly effective over the past three weeks and
currently ranks third overall in passing touchdowns.
Although I have been a proponent of fading him more than once
this season, it is tough to pass on his matchup on the road against
the Titans in a game that has the makings of a shootout (50.5
O/U).
Rodgers has averaged just under 29 points per game in his last
three contests, while the Titans have been the third-worst defense
to opposing quarterbacks during that period.
GPP - Carson
Wentz vs. Atlanta ($5,400 on DraftKings)
Recommending a rookie quarterback with only one 20-point game
on the year might appear to be a silly move on my part, especially
one with the limited weapons that Wentz has in Philadelphia.
Just like location is important when buying and selling real
estate, your opponent and game script is equally important in
DFS when identifying inexpensive GPP plays that might breakout.
A positive game script for passing due to the high flying Atlanta
offense should force Wentz and the Eagles offense to pass throughout
the game. Mix in the fact that the Falcons currently own the 32nd
pass defense and could be without their best corner in Troufant,
and you have the recipe for a possible monster game.
Last year’s fantasy darling has been anything but this season,
and may struggle again this week against a KC defense that will
have pass rush reinforcements in Justin Houston and a secondary
that excels in covering the tight end.
If you take away the two 30-point games Newton has scored against
easy opponents like San Francisco and New Orleans, he would average
well under 20 points per game this season. Not exactly superman-like
numbers.
Running Backs
H2H/Cash
- David Johnson vs. San Francisco ($8,400 on DraftKings)
The only feasible way that I can see Johnson fail to produce
a 20-point game is if he gets injured, or the Arizona defense
has multiple pick six touchdowns like they did against Colin Kaepernick
in Week 3 of 2015.
Now that I have sufficiently jinxed Johnson, let me add in the
crazy stat of his usage in the passing game. In Week 7 against
Seattle, Johnson scored 28.1 points without scoring a rushing
or passing touchdown. This was due to the fact that he caught
a whopping eight passes on 13 targets.
Like I said in my opening, he is as close to a sure bet as you
can get, and he will be a staple in my cash game lineups despite
the fact that I anticipate most of my competition owning him as
well.
The folks at DraftKings have been surprisingly slow to respond
to the fact that despite Doug Peterson’s insisting Ryan
Mathews is the lead back in Philly, Darren Sproles is in fact
the top RB in Philly.
The little firecracker continues to impress despite his age and
stature, with double digit points in consecutive weeks in which
he received 20 touches.
You will be hard-pressed to find more touches as a discounted
price of $4,300, and the fact that Atlanta’s offense will
likely put pressure on the Philly passing game to score points
makes Sproles a no-brainer play in all formats.
Fade - Devontae
Booker vs. New Orleans ($7,000 on DraftKings)
In two games as the starter for Denver, Booker has underwhelmed
to the tune of 2.2 yards per carry against Oakland and 2.8 yards
against San Diego.
He has been so disappointing, that head coach Gary Kubiak has
said that Kapri Bibbs has earned the right to more carries.
Sure the matchup against the Saints looks choice, but it risky
in the fact that you are not guaranteed volume for a player costing
you a hefty $7,000 price tag.
Wide Receivers
H2H/Cash - Alshon Jeffery @ Tampa Bay ($6,600
on DraftKings)
Jeffery and Cutler will look to continue their solid play from
last week against Minnesota, as only the Atlanta Falcons have
allowed more fantasy points to opposing defenses than the Tampa
Bay Bucs.
If Jeffery and Cutler can connect for four catches for 63 yards
and a score against the Vikings, expecting a floor of that level
of production with a ceiling of 100 yards and two scores is a
reasonable expectation against suspect corners Vernon Hargreaves
and Brent Grimes.
Tyrell Williams has been a consistent performer in nearly every
game this season when the Chargers play someone other than Denver.
Williams caught six of his seven targets for 65 yards and score
last week against the Titans, and seven balls for 140 yards Week
7 against Atlanta.
You can pass on Miami, as evident by the fact that they have
allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers this
year. My only concern here is game flow, as Miami will focus on
shortening the game with a ball controlled run game with Ajayi,
creating a possible negative game script.
This is the first time all season that Marshall’s salary
has dipped below the $7,000 mark, and frankly, I think it is still
way too high considering just how poorly Marshall and the Jets
passing game have played this year.
Left tackle Ryan Clady is out for the year, making an already
suspect line even more porous against a Rams defensive front that
has been on a tear lately. Ryan Fitzpatrick is already hobbled
by a knee sprain and his lack of mobility and defensive pressure
will kill this offense.
Tight Ends
H2H/Cash - Travis Kelce @ Carolina ($5,600 on
DraftKings)
The start your tight end against Detroit mantra you continue
to hear from the fantasy industry on a weekly basis was forced
to take a sabbatical this week as the Lions are on a bye.
Don’t fret my friends, the Panthers have been almost as
putrid against opposing tight ends, making Kelce an attractive
start this week.
KC will likely have difficulty moving the ball on the ground,
and number one wide receiver (I say that in jest) Jeremy Maclin
is likely out with a pulled groin, leaving Kelce as the Chiefs’
main receiving threat.
The question is can Kelce keep his cool and not get kicked out
for unsportsmanlike conduct. I think so, and I think he bounces
back with a pair of scores.
GPP - Zach
Ertz vs. Atlanta ($3,700 on DraftKings)
I wanted to go with Kendricks here, but the horror of his dropped
touchdown pass keeps playing on a loop in my head.
Instead, I decided to go with Zach Ertz against the Falcons,
in what has the makings of a shootout in Philly. Ertz caught all
eight of his targets for 97 yards Week 9 against the Giants, opening
the door to the possibility that he and rookie QB Carson Wentz
are finally getting on the same page.
Don’t anticipate a touchdown, as that is not historically been
a strong point for Ertz and Doug Peterson continues to force balls
to Dorial Green-Beckham in the red zone, despite the fact that
Green-Beckham is terrible and has the ball skills of my labradoodle
puppy.
Fade - Jimmy
Graham @ New England ($5,300 on DraftKings)
The Seattle offensive line is so terrible that the Patriots defense
will be able to shut down the run without allocating much focus
to Michael or Prosise, opening the door for Patricia and Belichick
to do their typical strategy of shutting down the main threat
of their opponent.
After eight catches for 103 yards and two touchdowns, it is clear
that Graham is Seattle’s man offensive threat right now.
Owners expecting similar production this week on the road in
Foxboro will be disappointed.
Defense/Special Teams
Arizona Cardinals vs. SF ($3,700 on DraftKings)
I don’t expect four turnovers and a couple of defensive
scores this week like the last time Colin Kaepernick played the
Cardinals on the road, but one score and a few turnovers is certainly
in the realm of possibility on Sunday.
