After moping around the house for an hour after the end of the afternoon
games on Sunday with a dejected look on my face, I tried to engage
my wife in conversation to make me feel better about the silly move
I made on my DFS millionaire maker ticket earlier that day. Instead
of trusting my gut and sticking with Brady and a less expensive
complimentary wide receiver, I overthought things and decided to
go with Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin at home in what I thought
would be a get-right game for the Seahawks.
I explained to my better half that if I had just followed my
advice (see my Week 2 preview piece),
I would have won $250 in the GPP contest instead of just $50.
Instead of making me feel better for my bonehead move, she scolded
me for not being happy for making $50 on something as stupid as
fantasy football.
After all, with everything bad going on in the world and so many
people in need, how could I be so shallow about missing out on
$200 from a fantasy football game? In the grand scheme of things,
she is right, and the pain and frustration we all feel when we
lose in a trivial game like fantasy football pales in comparison
to what many deal with on a daily basis. But it doesn’t
change the fact that I felt like an idiot for a few hours on Sunday
evening.
I learned two things that day. First, trust your gut, because
often you are right and it won’t hurt as bad to lose if
you go with what you believe. And second, under no circumstances
will I talk to my wife about losing in fantasy football.
The following lineup is from a $70 winning ticket in the DraftKings
millionaire maker GPP.
Quarterback: Russell
Wilson DraftKings Points: 15.32
Grade: C
My last-minute move to change from Brady to Wilson had more to
do with the fact that I wanted the Seahawk stack of Wilson and
Doug Baldwin. Baldwin torched the Niners for 10/164/1 in Seattle
Week 3 of 2016, and I anticipated that Wilson would force feed
his No.1 wideout after a disappointing game against Green Bay
Week 1.
I expected that Brady would outscore Wilson, but I was not able
to get the lineup to work with Brady’s higher salary. That
decision proved to be a killer, with Brady throwing for over 400
yards and three scores, and Wilson had a pedestrian 198 yards
and a score.
The Seattle offensive line continues to be dreadful, even against
a mediocre defensive line like San Francisco, making Wilson a
risky start until the team gets things turned around.
In my preview piece, I wrote about the likelihood of Beastmode
scoring at least one rushing touchdown in front of his home crowd
in Oakland and the probability that he would not receive more
than 20 touches in what would be a blowout. I was correct about
the rushing touchdown (it could have been two had David Carr handed
him the ball on the goal line instead of throwing a fade to Michael
Crabtree), but Lynch was even more limited than I anticipated
with only 12 carries. In a cash game Lynch makes sense, but in
a GPP where I am looking for home run plays, this was not the
best move.
At just $5,800, TY Montgomery was one of the best values on DraftKings
because he is a dual rushing and receiving threat on a potent
Packer offense. Monty came through big time for my team, with
110 combined yards, two touchdowns, and six receptions, making
him one of the best plays of the week. I like Montgomery going
forward, but he is no longer a steal at his current salary of
$6,900.
How ironic that the one wide receiver that I wanted the most
and the reason why I moved away from Tom Brady to Russell Wilson,
would be the most expensive and least productive member of my
receiving corps.
At $5,800, Keenan Allen looked like a great play for double-digit
targets against a Miami secondary that looked terrible in the
preseason. I anticipated that Rivers would target Gates heavily
in the red zone as the team was clear in their goal of getting
Gates the TD record, but that didn’t scare me away from
a volume player like Allen in a PPR format.
The absence of John Brown and David Johnson made J.J. Nelson
and his $3,800 a must-start in GPP games, as the Cardinals cannot
run the ball and you can pass on the Colts. It did not start off
well, but Nelson finished the day with five catches for 120 yards
and a touchdown. Not too shabby for a near bottom basement priced
wideout.
The squeaky wheel narrative on Baldwin getting fed targets after
just four in Week 1 proved to be correct, but Wilson was erratic
on a rainy afternoon in Seattle and Baldwin managed just 44 yards
on six catches.
Tight End: Rob
Gronkowski DraftKings Points: 26.6
Grade: A
There are times that it is worth it to pay up for the best tight
end in the league, even if that means paying almost $7,000 for
a position filled with viable options for half the price. A bounce-back
game against the Saints on turf is one such time, and Gronk did
not disappoint with six catches for 116 yards and a touchdown
(Very easily could have been two TDs).
Flex: James
White DraftKings Points: 17.6
Grade: A-
When left with $4,000 or less for my flex play, I like to target
inexpensive wide receivers or running backs who will see a large
number of targets in proportion to their salary. White playing
against the Saints in what I anticipated to be a high-scoring
game fit that bill, and the shifty pass-catching back for the
Patriots came through with 8 catches for 85 yards.
Defense/Special Teams: Seattle DraftKings Points: 8
Grade: C
There appeared to be much to like about the Seahawks at home
against the 49ers this week, with Seattle looking to bounce back
after a lopsided loss to Green Bay. The weather looked sloppy,
and the 49ers offense appeared anemic at best. Seattle did manage
two sacks and a pick, but they did not deliver the defensive score
that I anticipated.
