Patrick Mahomes is one such player. Even with a below-average WR room and a hobbled Travis Kelce in 2023, Mahomes gave owners top-5 QB numbers among those QBs who aren’t known for their rushing chops. There were just 3 QBs with 400+ completions last season--Prescott (410), Goff (407), and Mahomes (401). This season, Andy Reid will be designing plays with Kelce, Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice, and the 28th-overall pick in this year’s draft, Xavier Worthy (4.21). I’m confident that last year’s numbers represent the floor for Mahomes, and 2024 will provide a nice bump back to the mid- 30s in TDs, nearly 4400 passing yards, and his typical 2 rushing TDs. With Mahomes, I know what’s coming and it’s going to be “worthy.”

Drafting in the later rounds of a season-long league, I’m looking for the WR depth and upside that Curtis Samuel provides. No, really. Remember, I love known quantities. Let’s look at the last three seasons when he played at least 15 games:

In 2020, Samuel’s Panthers struggled to a record of 5-11, and Teddy Bridgewater finished as QB18 in fantasy land. Those 2022 Commanders finished last in the NFC East (8-8-1) with Taylor Heinicke at QB30 and Carson Wentz at QB32 in a timeshare. Last year, those Commanders fell to 4-13 and Sam Howell struggled to a 21/21 TD/INT ratio. Checking out his new QB over those same three years, Josh Allen finished as QB1, QB2, and QB1. I’ll take those significantly-upgraded 90 targets from the Winter General right to the fantasy bank.

Another player of whom I’m sure is Quentin Johnston, WR of the WR-less LA Chargers. At 6’3” and a first-round draft pick last year, and with Keenan Allen in Chicago and Mike Williams in New York he’s ready for a second-year breakout. Right? Not a chance! Q looked absolutely lost at times during his first season in the NFL. He managed only 38 receptions, despite the fact his former coaches (and Justin Herbert) kept feeding him (67 targets for a 56.7% catch rate). His 2023 highlight reel features 50% short gains, and 50% coaches “discussing” drops and broken routes with him on the sideline. A new HC, run-first scheme, three WRs already ahead of him on the current depth chart, and QB Herbert recently diagnosed with a plantar fascia condition in his right foot, tell me everything I need to know. PASS…and not in a good way. I just love knowing that his ceiling is about 43/533/3, even if he moves up to be LAC’s WR3. That tells me right where he belongs--on somebody else’s bench.

Unlike the three examples above, there are perplexing players I’m struggling to forecast. I’m 22 drafts deep into our 2024 season, and early ADPs are crazier than usual. Various preseason cheatsheets and projections offer substantially-different outlooks, with reasonable justifications. Mahomes, Samuel and Johnston provide definitive insights into what we can expect. Then, there are the following types of players who will make or break our fantasy seasons depending upon how well we decipher the clues.

Caleb Williams, QB, CHI

There are $39.49 million, fully-guaranteed dollars that say Williams is the man that will build and fill a new stadium for da Bears. I almost choked on my Packers cheese curds when I saw his 94-14 TD/INT ratio with the Sooners and Trojans. Wait, he rushed for another 27 TDs in just three years? The haters will mention the CHI offensive line, but they are underestimating the steady and significant improvement on that side of the ball.

Receptions by RBs in 2023 were Swift (PHI 39), Herbert (20), and Roschon Johnson (34), so no problem there. Or at TE, with Kmet 73/719/6 finishing as TE8 in PPR scoring. The WR room now features Keenan Allen, who flashed 108/1243/7 in just 13 games during 2023… and he might be the 2nd-best WR this year in Chicago. Last season, D.J. Moore posted 96/1364/8 with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent under center. Honestly, CHI suddenly has an embarrassment of riches at the position, with Rome Odunze, the 9th-overall pick in this year’s draft, likely their WR3.

What’s his QB SOS look like? Juicy! So why my confusion with Williams? In Best Ball drafts, there isn’t any at all. My advice, take him where you have to, and add a steady-producer later. In season-long leagues, there are enough variables to project Williams as the QB13 (see above) or the QB23. That’s a huge fudge factor. Defensive coordinators love scheming for a rookie QB, Chicago weather can be unforgiving, he’s never played a game with any of his receivers, and D’Andre Swift is getting paid to take a lot of the early touches. Another challenge is figuring out how often they let the $39-million-dollar man actually run with the football.

Derrick Henry, RB, BAL

King Henry had 1744 carries over his last six years with the Titans -- some RBs don’t have that many yards over that same span. Like a lot of folks, I started shying away from Henry after his ridiculous 378 rushing attempts and 2027 yards (5.4 yds/carry) in 2020. I’ve regretted it. Last season in PPR formats, Henry at age 29 finished as RB10 with 1167 yards rushing and 12 TDs. He did that with an extra defender in the box, another “leaning” that direction, and rookie Will Levis (QB32) under center. Henry still has big games, too. In one-third of his games last season, he scored more than 19 points. One three-game stretch featured multiple rushing TDs in each game. Now in BAL, defenses will have to keep track of Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, dual-threat Lamar Jackson, as well as Henry.

So, what are the risks? Let’s look at the 2023 RBs who finished their PPR season near the RB1/RB2 boundary:

Going to 3 decimal places (out of sheer respect) Henry managed 1.647 receptions/game. Outlier Kamara effortlessly grabbed 5.8 rec/game over his 13 games, with Cook (2.6), Barkley (2.9), Pollard (3.2) and Pacheco (3.1) each adding significant value in PPR and half-PPR scoring. To look at it another way, Henry averaged 14.0 pts/game, while Cook averaged 13.9 pts/game with 10 fewer rushing TDs.

It's a rough schedule for the Baltimore RBs in 2024. Keaton Mitchell should return by week 7 or 8, and Justice Hill will get his 6-7 fantasy points per game. Rasheen Ali, a 5th-round pick out of Marshall, and FB Patrick Ricard provide depth. In recent years, those deep RBs for BAL have been pressed into service early and often. He’s going as high as pick 16 overall in some of my drafts, and falling to 26 in others, demonstrating the current level of concern. It would oversimplify my own outlook for the 30-year-old Henry by simply projecting, say 85% of what he averaged over his last two years. The worry with the King is that his brutal usage suggests a decline will not be gradual one. Chances are getting closer to 60-40% that he'll post Top-12 RB numbers one year, and miss half a season with nagging injuries the next.

Jameson Williams, WR, DET

I admit it, I’ve been reaching a few spots to secure Jameson’s services in 2024 Best Ball leagues. Do I have “buyer’s remorse?” Not in the first week of August I don’t, but ask me again about Election Day. I don’t know if I’m getting a WR that will pop with 52/784/7 or flatline with 37/555/3.

Williams has GPS-breaking speed on a team that can put up 28 points by halftime. In his only year at Alabama, he had 4 TD receptions of 70-yards or more, with a total of 11 TD catches of 30+ yards. DET slow-rolled their 1st-round rookie, who was recovering from a torn ACL. He caught 1 pass his rookie season, for a 41-yd TD. He’ll draw favorable coverage (meaning that one guy on defense who can almost keep up), his QB could flirt with 4500 yards and 30 TDs, the DET running game is sublime, and WR Josh Reynolds is now a Bronco. Did I mention that DET has only three outside games this season? If ever we had a WR ready for that 3rd-year bounce, it’s JaMo.

The bad news? Judgement and consistency questions remain. Entering his third year, he’s played just bits and pieces of 18 games. Between his lost rookie season and a six-game gambling suspension in 2023, he has just one year of playing experience entering his third year. He’s also competing with studs Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs for opportunities. He’ll be a starter from Week 1, and we should know by Week 5 (bye) if he’ll be a gamebreaker or heartbreaker in fantasy circles this season. But that won’t help on draft day.

Cole Kmet, TE, CHI

Just 25 years old, the Bears TE is a 6’6” target who is rewarding fantasy owners with steadily-improving numbers. In fact, Kmet has been the TE8 in PPR scoring each of the last 2 seasons. That’s impressive, considering the Bears offensive “challenges” of late.

In 2023, Kmet turned 73 receptions into 6 TDs with just a single dropped pass. In fact, he provided CHI QBs with a 109.2 passer rating when targeted, per PFF. It’s time to start diggin’ Cole.

Or is it? The winds of Chicago have brought massive change. That has to be great news for the Bears; unfortunately, it could cripple Kmet’s individual fantasy value. Enter Shane Waldron as the new offensive coordinator, QB Caleb Williams as the new face of the franchise, WR Keenan Allen (150 targets in 2023), 9th-overall pick WR Rome Odunze (6’3” red-zone beast), and RB D’Andre Swift (50 rec/season last 3 yrs). One big thing hasn’t changed--WR D.J. Moore (WR6, 136 targets in 2023) is the top Chicago dog, and he can’t wait to run routes for Williams. Maybe Kmet’s only catches will be in training camp?