8/25/05
No one can dispute the growing popularity of the fantasy football
industry. For many diehard fantasy fans the hobby is a year round
obsession. Fifteen years ago when the internet was more rumor than
reality, I was a year round fantasy football strategist and research
analyst. I wasn't exactly employed in this capacity, but I did the
work just the same. I was determined to stay successful in a local
league made up of rotisserie baseball geeks and college buddies.
I owned that league. Sure they were prehistoric fantasy guys, and
they caught on eventually, but this time of year they were usually
wrapped up in pennant races, while I was buried in training camp
battles.
Over the following decade, as the internet grew in popularity
and resources like this became available, my addictive personality
reared it's ugly head. I became a major time-waster on NFL message
boards and chat rooms. Of course, I joined way too many leagues
for my health. This deal should come with a Surgeon General's
warning.
As the years go by and careers become more complicated, wives
more concerned about the condition of the garage, and sweet babies
turn into active little school children; our bosses and immediate
loved ones fail to understand that fantasy football is first priority.
It's a shame really. I know many of you are currently experiencing
these misunderstandings, and you have my support and sympathy.
See back in 2001, in order to appease the barbarians at the gate
and comply with an intervention, I took a year off. Cold turkey.
No fantasy football. If you ever consider doing the same, I don't
recommend it. For awhile things were okay, but I was keeping the
misery inside. Other people around me were happy because I took
care of the lesser responsibilities in life, but soon the withdrawals
were horrifying. There are no methadone clinics for fantasy football
junkies. Trust me, I've looked. There's no support, no sympathy,
no understanding. There's just sports bars filled with ignorant
fans who haven't a clue what you're mumbling about. It's a frustrating
experience trying to put a league together in a crowded pub during
week nine's Monday Night Football game. So in 2002, I reached
a compromise with the interventionists and vowed that the fantasy
football season would never start before July 1st, and I would
limit myself to three leagues. It's not the best arrangement,
but I've been a good boy (for the most part), and the barbarians
have put down their weapons. What does any of this have to do
with camp battles and running backs? Nothing really. I get paid
by the word, and there's this last minute money league with an
opening I just heard about. (Just kiddin', boss)
I just want to point out that I've been at this for awhile and
people get a little too emotional about these RBs. I really don't.
Over the years there's been one proven constant in fantasy football
-- running backs are key. In the early days, understanding
the supply and demand curve for running backs helped me own that
league. In these modern times, it's become more complicated to
exploit Stud RB Theory because of the wealth of information at
everyone's fingertips. Expert sites, inside information, cheatsheets,
heavily researched projections, ADP analysis, awesome
draft software, etc.; it's all leveled the playing field,
allowing the casual fan easy access to a competitive team with
a shot at glory. Out of frustration, diehard junkies have developed
both goofy ideas and sound strategies to overcome Stud RB Theory.
Most of those approaches have done little more than validate the
importance of running backs (and that includes you VBD and AVT
sharks). My advice to those diehards (the goofy ones) is to give
it a rest, love those RBs, and manage your teams more aggressively
during the season.
As I discussed camp battles at TE
and QB, I added some
draft theory appropriate to the topics. That shouldn't be necessary
for running backs. You know you need good ones. You know you need
depth. You know there's scarcity at the position. So, you know
you better draft them early.
On Friday July 1st, at 12:00.00 AM, when I started using again,
the first thing I looked at was running backs. I was pleased to
notice a continuation of last year's increased supply of featured
backs has created a two year trend-- the more teams with featured
RBs, the less frustrating running back by committee (RBBC). More
featured RBs also means more opportunity for divergent draft strategy,
more challenging competition for solid stud projections, more
mistakes on draft day to exploit, and more talent falling to later
rounds. It's all good, but most importantly, less camp battles
at running back, means less for me to write about. As the process
of note taking, quote seeking, and situation analyzing progressed
from the off-season, to camp, and halfway through the pre-season,
that thinking half-backfired.
Last year, I isolated
12 camp battles for discussion in this series, and added three
minor notes on other situations. I figured the trend towards more
featured backs would drop that down to nine or ten serious battles
to discuss, and I was right. Below I discuss the nine situations
that best qualify as true camp battles. It's the additional notes
on other situations that became more involved, and perhaps more
crucial this season. As a teaser, you may be surprised to find
four highly ranked RBs-- Priest Holmes, Tiki Barber, Clinton Portis
and Rudi Johnson-- have all found there way into this discussion
of camp battles with caveats I want you to carefully consider.
Before we dig in, understand the focus here: It's camp battles.
If some of these players jump off the page and into your hearts,
realize LaDainian Tomlinson and many of his lesser peers are not
in battles, therefore not being discussed, and many of them are
very worthy of your heart's desire. I again refer you to the very
useful FFToday
Draft Plan.
Denver Broncos
Mike Anderson (9.5) vs. Tatum Bell
(3.4) vs. Ron Dayne (15.5) vs. Quentin Griffin (15.5)
Being emotionally stable is an asset in life as well as fantasy
football. If this situation has caused you any mental duress,
just skip it. Those who keep their heads about them while others
are losing theirs are often rewarded, and I'd rather we discuss
this in private. Contrary to the opinion of legions of unbalanced
fantasy fans, Denver HC Mike Shanahan is not schizophrenic. He
doesn't hate fantasy football; he doesn't play mind games by keeping
top secret training camp information from the media; nor, does
he deliberately endeavor to ruin your season with deviant ideas
that undermine his own team. It's not his fault that he runs one
of the NFL's most prolific ground games and doesn't let you decide
who should start for him. That's your problem.
Shanahan has struggled to find a feature back for his highly
acclaimed zone blocking rushing attack. His chosen starters have
been beset with injuries, struggled with consistency, and been
difficult to read for fantasy purposes. So, there's been understandable
turnover at the position. No one would love to see a few season's
of dominant feature back production in Denver more than the Broncos
themselves. For his part, Shanahan has been both forthright and
consistent in his approach. He tells us who the starter is, sticks
with him through the preseason, and gives him an honest shot at
the job with a reluctance to replace him short of injury. That's
fair enough. What else could you possibly ask for other than submitting
Shanny's lineup?
A quick glance at the above ADPs tells us that Tatum Bell is
the man Shanahan dubbed as his starter and is sticking with, right?
Wrong. Tatum Bell is the man unbalanced fantasy fans are choosing
as Denver's starter. It matters little to them that Shanahan chose
Mike Anderson in early July. They're actually spending a 3rd round
pick on a back up with serious competition for the #2 spot on
the depth chart. They did the same thing a year ago when Shanahan
told the world the job belonged to Quentin Griffin. Choosing Tatum
Bell in the third round is like throwing big money on a roulette
number while everyone else is playing poker. Bell's number may
hit, and he's an explosive runner, but considering the sure performers
still available in the 3rd round, even if you get lucky with Bell,
you did so at unnecessary risk.
So, the starter in Shanahan's powerful system, Mike Anderson,
has a 9th round ADP. That sounds like my kind of deal, but I'm
not buying the 9th round value. The closer we get to the next
two weekends of draft frenzy, the earlier Anderson will be leaving
scratched up cheatsheets and joining rosters. I don't care who
the starting running back is in Denver, if he's waiting for a
roster in the seventh round, he's mine. That's value. And since
his back-up was already drafted, don't worry about the handcuff
unless the following sort of "creepy" information makes
sense to you.
Anderson knows the system and has run effectively in preseason.
He hasn't lit up the scoreboard, but he's done nothing to lose
the job. A year ago the Broncos experimented with Griffin who
many felt was a bad fit for the zone blocking scheme. They were
right, but it's hardly fair to criticize Denver for the move.
Anderson blew out his groin, Hearst was hobbled and done, Bell
was injured and a rookie learning the playbook, Droughns was a
needed fullback. Griffin had some good moments then struggled
miserably before Shanahan finally dug deep and gave the fullback
a shot. Droughns was better suited to the system and had a great
year. Anderson isn't Griffin. Anderson fits the system, and if
you recall, he was rookie of the year a few years ago-- in the
system. It's been a long haul for Mike, but he's back ,and he's
starting, and he'll be tough to replace, and he's available cheap.
Here's the "creepy" part. Ronday... *cough*... Ron
Dayaee... *ahem*... Ron Dayne is having a great preseason in Denver.
There, I said it (again). Hey, it's my job to report the facts.
Don't shoot the messenger. Mike Shanahan is often accused of being
an RBBC coach. This isn't exactly true. He's pretty loyal to his
starter, then willing to take a hard look at his depth should
the starter falter or go down to injury. It's not with his #1
guy where he thinks RBBC; it's when he needs to replace him. Everybody
gets a shot. Let's see who can do this best when it's for real.
I can't criticize that thinking either. It's how Droughns got
his shot a year ago. So, if Anderson goes down, we shouldn't be
at all surprised to see both Bell and Dayne toting the rock in
Denver until one outshines the other. Do I really think Dayne
has a shot? Sure, I'd guess a 50-50 shot in Anderson's absence.
Don't try convincing those drafting Bell in the 3rd, but the reports
on Dayne have been that good. They differ from past positive reports
about Dayne's fine play. They include the fact that Dayne has
been awful since leaving Wisconsin where he was almost unstoppable
in a system identical to Denver's and a near polar opposite from
New York's. Creepy, I know. But if I get Anderson cheap, I'm not
embarrassed to handcuff him to Dayne with a late pick in a deep
league. Denver backs rock when they get rolling, and you can never
be positive who that might be. That's not something that should
put you on anti-depressants; it's something to understand and
exploit.
Even if Bell rises to the top (and he has a shot), my thinking
on this one is of little risk. If Bell falls short, my thinking
is gold, and those taking Bell early better not make any other
big mistakes on draft day. You can usually spot yourself only
one of those.
Minnesota Vikings
Michael Bennett (4.8) vs. Mewelde Moore
(10.1)
Minnesota HC Mike Tice probably is schizophrenic. Okay, maybe
a little bipolar. Maybe he just has a learning disability and
doesn't realize what he has. Maybe he wears blinders after making
a decision. He tried to anoint Michael Bennett as the starter
and stick with him, but Mewelde Moore continues to look like a
much better option. A reported mutiny among the coaches on the
Viking ship may have more to do with Mewelde's big opportunity
the next two weeks than Michael Bennett's neck. Maybe not, but
that's one way to read this unsettled situation.
A sports talk host on the Vikings' flagship radio station announced
that "Every coach in Minnesota believes Moore should be the
starter, but Mike Tice." I take talk show hosts with a grain
of salt, and this sounded like one filling air space and spouting
off, but follow up reports did reveal some Viking coaches prefer
Moore to Bennett. It's not surprising. I took some heat this time
a year ago for stating the most talented back in Minnesota was
the unknown rookie Mewelde. It was as obvious a year ago as it
has been this preseason. The kid has game.
Three starts is a very small sample for judging NFL RBs, so don't
get carried away with this stuff. In his three starts last season,
Moore ran for 339 yards and added another 198 receiving. He averaged
5.8 yards a carry, and in a slightly under-reported stat, he led
the NFL in yards after contact. Some think his skill set is that
of a change of pace third down option. He hasn't played enough
for us to be certain he can carry the load. We know he's a gifted
receiver; we know he plays with terrific vision and balance; we
know he breaks big plays with regularity; and we now know he has
two weeks to take the starting job and run with it. This may sound
like crazy talk, but he looks to me like what you might get if
you morphed Marshall Faulk and Marcus Allen.
Michael Bennett is telling anyone who will listen that the neck
strain is minor, and he's ready to go. Mike Tice isn't listening,
and he's turning over the preseason keys to Moore. He's also making
plans to start Moore in the season opener because he doesn't believe
Bennett will be ready. The neck strain may have been the perfect
excuse for Tice to save face and get the right man in the lineup
afterall. But, I hate homespun psychology, and there's every possibility
Bennett will take over as soon as Tice is convinced he's ready...
and regardless of Moore's play. That's just the kind of guy Tice
is.
So, in the middle of this confusion, expect Bennett to start
falling down draft boards at an alarming rate, and expect Moore
to shoot up two to three rounds. That's the best I have to offer,
and my opinion from last season obviously hasn't changed. Moore
is the more complete back. Given the job, and given good health,
he'll be a steal in the 7th or 8th round. Bennett takes alot of
flack from fantasy enthusiasts, but he's not exactly a slouch.
Probably the fastest man in the NFL, and coming out of an offseason
dedicated to making his lower body more durable, Bennett too can
put up nice numbers if given the chance. My scouting report isn't
nearly as important as Mike Tice's psychoanalysis. Unfortunately,
I'm not qualified for that task. It's a go with your gut situation,
and I don't do that in early rounds. So if Moore goes too early,
call that round 6 for now with more information needed this weekend,
I'll miss out on the results of my crazy talk, and be very hesitant
about Bennett.
Tennessee Titans
Chris Brown (4.1) vs. Travis Henry
(7.4)
The Titans boast two excellent running backs with great potential.
HC Jeff Fisher hasn't hesitated to suggest an RBBC in Tennessee.
Their ADPs were almost identical in early August, then Henry started
missing practice with a bad toe and falling down the draft board.
Had it been Brown missing camp, this situation would be bleak
indeed. But, with the new guy learning a new system missing camp,
this situation looks good for Chris Brown. He'll get the nod on
opening day. It remains to be seen how much Henry plays, or if
Brown can keep his own health, but my guess is Henry pinch hits
like Davenport does for Green in Green Bay, and Brown's health
remains something to worry about. His upside makes him worth the
roster spot. This is the kind of player you couldn't expect to
draft in the 4th round a couple years ago.
Finally, many debate which of these two is actually the better
back. I'll chime in with a strong vote for Brown. At full strength
he's been very impressive. He has great vision and slices through
holes with surprising quickness for his frame, and he finishes
plays with gamebreaking ability that's always a threat to score.
He may not make it through the season, and you probably shouldn't
take both Titan RBs unless Henry really falls, but for my money,
Chris Brown is the clear winner of this camp battle, and has the
potential to be a difference maker on your team.
Cleveland Browns
Lee Suggs (6.8) vs. Reuben Droughns
(7.10) vs. William Green (15.9)
For the second straight season Lee Suggs has won a camp battle
in Cleveland only to have his hopes dashed by a late injury. This
time it's a sprained ankle, and as of yet, there's no timetable
for his return. Reuben Droughns looks be a beneficiary of Suggs'
misfortune and commented on the situation with sound advice for
fantasy owners, "Injuries are such a big part of the game,"
said Droughns, who missed the preseason opener against the New
York Giants with a sore hamstring. "With running backs, you
can't ever have enough."
William Green has become an afterthought to fantasy owners with
a late 15th round ADP, and it's hard to judge the prudence of
that evaluation. From a pure running standpoint, Green brings
a little more zip to an offense than Droughns. New HC Romeo Crennel
has been impressed with the rest of Green's game, "He's a
hard runner. He will run it in there. I like what I see, plus
he's a willing blocker. Running backs in the NFL have to run,
block and catch. He can do all of those.''
Don't get too excited by the quote. Green has been running with
special teams this preseason, and Droughns isn't a willing blocker,
he's an exceptional blocker; Droughns can't just catch, he has
superb hands. It's not hard to imagine Droughns making the Broncos
regret letting him go, and it's not hard to imagine such a complete
player being exactly what Crennel is seeking. It shouldn't be
lost on us that Droughns is the back brought in by Crennel himself
at a time most observers thought the Browns already had quality
at RB. I suspect all three backs will have opportunities this
season, and if Crennel is as sharp as I think, the cream will
rise to the top. Until then, this is a dicey situation with RBBC
written all over it. There's a use for a Cleveland RB on your
roster, and one may emerge with significant value. I'd call that
a toss up with a three sided coin favoring Suggs and Droughns,
but I don't like the risk reward ratio on this one.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Jerome Bettis (8.3) vs. Duce Staley
(6.2) vs. Willie Parker (16.5) vs. Verron Hayes (17.8)
I believe it was Reuben Droughns who once said, "With running
backs, you can't ever have enough." I doubt Reuben ever analyzed
the Steeler RBs for fantasy purposes. They have enough already.
The Steelers, with their power running game, provide several questionable
options for fantasy teams looking for depth at the position. There's
no reason to draft any of these. Bettis and Staley come with mid-round
prices and are guaranteed to be in an RBBC. Duce is likely to
fall a little further given his recent knee surgery. That might
make him the best choice of the lot. He says he's ready to go
right now, and looking forward to it.
HC Bill Cowher is happy with his depth at the position and plans
to hold Duce out at least through the opener. Jerome Bettis is
#1 on the depth chart, but no one expects him to carry the load
all season. As long as he's healthy the short yardage opportunities
will be his, and he's very accomplished at shoving the ball and
a couple defenders across the goal line. Parker has emerged as
the teams 3rd down back and looks to put up better numbers than
Hayes. This RBBC is well-understood by fantasy drafters who know
what they get, why and when. An injury here and there is always
likely, and in that case, the survivors all get a boost in value.
They all linger well after the rest of the league's primary RBs
are gone. I like more promising situations with at least a chance
of my choice being featured in the offense, but, you can never
have enough RBs according to Reuben Droughns.
Miami Dolphins
Ronnie Brown (4.5) vs. Ricky Williams
(9.3)
The extended hold out of #1 draft pick Ronnie Brown, and the
4 game suspension of unretired Ricky Williams, created a camp
battle that's been more political than physical. Lamar Gordon
and Sammy Morris look to share the RB responsibilities early in
the season in a situation that's been a trainwreck since Williams
retired a year ago. Gordon and Morris will be replaced by Brown
and/or Williams early in the season., and the Dolphins are currently
shopping Gordon.
Sometimes it doesn't matter how good a back is, and Williams
is a great one, maybe Brown could be better, if the run blocking
isn't there, the performance is subpar. The Dolphins as a team
have a sense of disarray about them that shouts, "Stay away!"
Considering the talent level of Brown and Williams that's difficult
advice to follow, but I'm going to be strong about this, and not
worry about it if I'm wrong.
Brown gets to show us what he's got this weekend. If he really
impresses, I'd certainly rethink his situation. On the other hand,
if he really looks awful, Ricky Williams is the most talented
9th rounder I can remember. Cover your butt for four weeks if
you take him, and good luck with this.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carnell Williams (3.12) vs. Michael
Pittman (10.3)
Either HC Jon Gruden has played this situation very close to
the vest, or the Bucs need a beat writer who understands the needs
of fantasy fans. The highly acclaimed rookie, Carnell "Cadillac"
Wiliams, is either slow to learn the system, or he's being protected
like a valuable veteran. He's barely seen the field of play, giving
us little information on what to expect. He is scheduled to display
his skills this weekend. I'll be watching closely. Gruden's most
compelling comment has been, "I already know what I have
in him." Who knows what he knows, but that does sound positive
coming from a coach. It's just not positive enough for me to put
Caddy ahead of better known situations on my draft board as early
as the 3rd round. It's important to add that this opinion really
is based on limited information and can quickly change after his
coming debut. I'm not covering my bases here, and for those of
you waiting another week to draft, take a good look at how he
plays, then follow what the coaches are saying next week and before
making a firm decision about the rookie.
The excitement surrounding the Cadillac in fantasy circles has
driven Michael Pittman's value down to the 10th round. Pittman
quietly combined for 1300 yards and 10 TDs last season. In the
least, he'll be active in the mix of an RBBC. I know a rookie
running back almost always breaks into the NFL's top 10, and I
understand Caddy could be that guy, but I'm probably going to
pass on him so early in a draft. Pittman on the other hand, could
reproduce last season's numbers if given the opportunity. If I
haven't filled in my #4 RB, and he's still looking for a home
in the 10th, I think that's pretty good timing, with pretty good
upside, which is all you can hope for in a 10th round RB.
Arizona Cardinals
JJ Arrington (4.5) vs. Marcel Shipp
(12.4)
Except for the names and a few other changes, if you talk about
this, the story's the same one (as Tampa Bay's). Caddy and JJ
are the two first rookie RBs being selected in fantasy drafts.
The debate over who will be better has been spirited. Many like
JJ for this season, but agree Caddy looks to have a better career
opportunity. I haven't been able to form a firm opinion. At least
information flowing from Cardinal's camp has been a little more
helpful. Arrington has shown the measurables to be a quality NFL
back-- good speed, excellent power for his size, sweet feet to
make defenders miss, nice hands and a great work ethic. His competition,
Marcel Shipp, isn't coming off a season as productive as Pittman's
above. He was slowed by injury and struggled to find room in the
offense alongside future Hall of Famer and finally retired Emmitt
Smith.
So, this is looking better for JJ than Caddy, right? I'm not
so sure. Shipp is healthy and has been explosive in the past.
Not only is Emmitt out of the way, so is Troy Hambrick who earned
time in front of a gimpy Shipp a year ago. Despite Arrington's
measurables, he's looked tentative in the offense. He's a typical
rookie facing a steep learning curve along with Shipp's competition.
I have reports far removed from the media, and from Cardinal homers
attending camp, that Shipp was running with the 1st team 50% of
the time and looked much better in the 3rd down package. So, my
conclusion is the same. I'm going to let another owner grab the
rook before he'd interest me, and if I can't nab Pittman, Shipp
should still be homeless. I may make room for him as my #4.
San Francisco 49ers
Kevan Barlow (5.3) vs. Frank Gore (12.11)
Kevan Barlow is probably the biggest bust from last year's fantasy
drafts. Always chosen late in the first or early in the second
round, his past owners are scorned. He ran for 822 yards and only
7 tds, with one of only two 100 yard games coming in week 17--
after the fantasy season concluded for most of us. That isn't
enough production for a running back drafted at the stud level.
The addition of Frank Gore to the mix has driven Barlow's ADP
even further down than the less than mediocre season.
However, Gore hasn't been competing for the job. Sometimes these
rookies get hyped, and that seems to be the case here. Gore missed
time with an injured shoulder and Barlow will be a featured RB.
Considering the RBBC around the league, that's enough to put him
on our radars. Beyond that, as soon as Tim Rattay was announced
as the starter, I moved Barlow up a tier on my draft board. He
isn't my ideal for RB #3, but I don't play with fools, and he
may be the best I can grab as the RBs fly off the board. If that's
the case, I'll back up my starters with confidence and hope for
the best. He looked borderline spectacular for a spell two years
ago, and he says the addition of Gore will only make him better.
Chicago Bears
Thomas Jones (6.9), Cedrick Benson
(5.4)
The first round draft selection of Cedrick Benson, continuing
with the rookie theme, has driven Thomas Jones value way down.
Benson has been this seasons most annoying hold out, and there's
no battle for the Bears' running back job. A year ago Jones was
a hot commodity leaving fantasy drafts in the late 2nd round.
He put in a decent season combining for almost 1400 total yards
and 7 touchdowns. Most of those drafting him expected better.
He was supposed to be a poor man's Priest Holmes and a perfect
fit for the new season. Falling below expectations is another
reason he's been downgraded.
I see this differently than most. After three weeks last season
Thomas Jones was leading many scoring systems for NFL RBs. Then
things started deteriorating in Chicago and Jones fell way behind
the pace of many NFL backs. He closed the season with back to
back 100 yard games and by that time few fantasy teams were still
using this high draft pick. With another season in a system designed
to highlight his skills, combined with the flashes of brilliance,
unnecessary devaluation, and hold out of Benson; I'm going to
predict a big season and big value for fantasy purposes. If he
falls to the sixth as he has been, which could change given the
lack of perceived competition, he is the best value at RB in the
NFL this season. I've got him in my sights and suggest you do
the same.
Atlanta Falcons
Warrick Dunn (4.5), TJ Duckett (7.12)
A year ago Duckett had a higher ADP than Dunn, and I made the
right call warning readers not to be fooled. The fantasy production
in Atlanta would belong to Dunn, and Duckett was being taken to
soon. The situation remains the same but the ADPs make better
sense. Warrick Dunn is one of the league's under-appreciated talents.
Once again this season, I expect him to be nice insurance at the
position, but his price has gone up.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Fred Taylor (4.6), LaBrandon Toefield
(13.5), Alvin Pearman (15.2)
Fred Taylor underwent highly invasive knee surgery this off-season,
hasn't played a down in preseason, and has remained atop the Jaguar
depth chart. That's not saying much for Toefield who many expected
to be seriously competing with Fred by now. Complicating matters,
Alvin Pearman has the look of this year's Mewelde Moore. He may
just be the best all-around back in Jacksonville, and if something
shocking happens like Taylor getting injured, it's apparent Pearman
and Toefield will share the rock.
One has to really take a hard look at Fred Taylor in the 4th
round. If not for the knee problem, he'd be a late second, maybe
early 3rd rounder this year, and there's many indications that
things are looking up for the Jag offense. On the downward side
of a career that never was what it could have been, Taylor has
emerged as a team leader. He's been ready to test the knee for
a couple weeks, and he'll be getting an opportunity this weekend.
I wouldn't expect much. A handful of carries and back to the bench.
Taylor insists he's in great condition and ready to go. If he's
telling it straight, he's an unusual bargain in the mid 4th round.
Pearman will likely be in free agency in most leagues, so keep
a watchful eye on him. He's a great fit to what Jacksonville is
trying to do, and neither Taylor or Toefield have ever been real
impressive in the passing game.
Listed below are four great running backs all drafted by the
very early 2nd round. Priest Holmes is still sometimes the #1
overall pick in fantasy football. None of the four stars below
are in danger of losing their starting jobs. All of them are in
danger of losing carries to their backups and some of them are
happy to do so.
New York Giants
Tiki Barber (2.3), Brandon Jacobs (12.9)
In New York, Tiki Barber has openly campaigned for RBBC. He wanted
it last year with Ron Dayne. Giants fans give this situation the
cheesy name Thunder and Lightening. Rookie Brandon Jacobs is everything
Tiki isn't. He's big, heck he's huge, and he's young and he's
looked great in camp. Tiki is hoping Jacobs can lighten his load
and take a dozen hits a game that Tiki can just watch. In Jacobs
case, he'll be delivering the hits and softening up defenders
for Barber's return to the game. It never worked out with Ron
Dayne, but Jacobs seems cut from different cloth. Tiki is looking
to keep his health, extend his career, and win more football games.
It's hard to blame him, but that could be a losing proposition
for fantasy owners. It's very hard to judge how much Jacobs will
be used and how it might effect Barber's final stats.
Cincinnati Bengals
Rudi Johnson (2.3), Chris Perry (16.2)
The situation in Cincinnati is a little different. Chris Perry
has just played great football. He was drafted high by the Bengals,
and NFL teams don't like wasting high draft picks, especially
when they look great on the field. None of this means Rudi Johnson
is in danger of losing his job, but again, the Bengals aren't
averse to using both backs to keep them fresh. The situation in
NY is probably more precarious than this one. Rudi is a durable,
reliable power running back who hasn't disappointed the Bengals.
If Perry comes in to pinch hit for an occasional series, a rested
Rudi could even benefit from the situation. Ahman Green's finest
season included taking many series off and letting the other guys
wear down the defense. It sure is a good situation for an improving
Bengal team, but the fantasy outlook is a little cloudier than
most think.
Washington Redskins
Clinton Portis (1.9), Ladell Betts
(15.5)
The situation in Washington is a combination of the previous
two. Nobody questions whether Betts has talent approaching Portis.
But, HC Joe Gibbs can't help himself; he loves Ladell Betts bruising
style of play. Which is odd to me, because Gibbs likes race cars,
and there's no racier vehicle in the NFL than Clinton Portis.
Then again, it's not so odd at all. Gibbs has a history of using
straight ahead power runners, and that's what Betts brings to
the table. So the rumored plan is to switch up running styles
as in NY, with the hope that Portis benefits from the downtime
as in Cincinnati.
Kansas City Chiefs
Priest Holmes (1.3), Larry Johnson
(5.11)
Need I explain again? Considering their very high ADPs this is
a situation you should already be aware of. It's the same thing,
and it makes sense. Using a young buck like Johnson to keep the
great Priest Holmes healthy is smart, especially if Johnson continues
his brilliant play in the best rushing attack in the NFL. QB Trent
Green has gushed about the Chiefs using both backs extensively.
That's not his decision; it's HC Dick Vermeil's, and there's indications
Green is telling it like it is.
If I was a fan of any of these teams, with the exception of
the Redskins, I'd be hoping the RBBC was a reality. Tiki's a small
guy carrying a huge load. Priest is way too valuable to wear down
again, and I'd want to see just what Johnson can do week in and
out. Perry is very likely a superior back to Rudi, and using both
would give me alot of confidence that things are looking up in
Cincy. But, I'm not a fan of any of these teams. I'm a strung
out fantasy football junkie looking for a high dose fix at RB
this season, and I don't like taking chances with these top tier
guys. There's others in San Diego, Seattle, New Orleans, Buffalo,
Baltimore, Houston and elsewhere who don't have these question
marks.
I started this piece explaining I've been at this for a long
long time, and I'm fully aware these kinds of rumors leak out
occasionally. A good 75% of the time (guessing at the percentage)
the rumors prove to be false. But, I looked at each of these situations
for awhile. I read the various accounts that started the rumors.
I tried hard to validate or discount them. I hoped to ease minds
(including mine) on one or two of them. I can't. They all look
like real possibilities, and even if the chance is 25%, I'm not
happy about it. I've gone down the RBBC road unknowingly in the
past. It's not a good thing.
But, keeping our perspective, and as always, seeking value, I
see a bright green light for drafting anyone of those backups
around their ADPs, maybe just a tad sooner on all but Larry Johnson.
If the big gun goes down, you have a newly minted big gun of your
own-- though I doubt Betts and Jacobs can perform anywhere near
Portis and Barber. Still, I believe it was Reuben Droughns who
once said, "With running backs, you can't ever have enough."
Now I don't want to be the reason you skipped Priest Holmes the
season he raised the bar on his NFL record for TDs. But, I cannot
write about this topic in good conscience and withhold my thoughts
on this information, so... I'm just sayin'.
Next up-- The wonderful world of Wide Receivers
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