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Training Camp Battles: RBs
8/25/05

No one can dispute the growing popularity of the fantasy football industry. For many diehard fantasy fans the hobby is a year round obsession. Fifteen years ago when the internet was more rumor than reality, I was a year round fantasy football strategist and research analyst. I wasn't exactly employed in this capacity, but I did the work just the same. I was determined to stay successful in a local league made up of rotisserie baseball geeks and college buddies. I owned that league. Sure they were prehistoric fantasy guys, and they caught on eventually, but this time of year they were usually wrapped up in pennant races, while I was buried in training camp battles.

Over the following decade, as the internet grew in popularity and resources like this became available, my addictive personality reared it's ugly head. I became a major time-waster on NFL message boards and chat rooms. Of course, I joined way too many leagues for my health. This deal should come with a Surgeon General's warning.

As the years go by and careers become more complicated, wives more concerned about the condition of the garage, and sweet babies turn into active little school children; our bosses and immediate loved ones fail to understand that fantasy football is first priority. It's a shame really. I know many of you are currently experiencing these misunderstandings, and you have my support and sympathy.

See back in 2001, in order to appease the barbarians at the gate and comply with an intervention, I took a year off. Cold turkey. No fantasy football. If you ever consider doing the same, I don't recommend it. For awhile things were okay, but I was keeping the misery inside. Other people around me were happy because I took care of the lesser responsibilities in life, but soon the withdrawals were horrifying. There are no methadone clinics for fantasy football junkies. Trust me, I've looked. There's no support, no sympathy, no understanding. There's just sports bars filled with ignorant fans who haven't a clue what you're mumbling about. It's a frustrating experience trying to put a league together in a crowded pub during week nine's Monday Night Football game. So in 2002, I reached a compromise with the interventionists and vowed that the fantasy football season would never start before July 1st, and I would limit myself to three leagues. It's not the best arrangement, but I've been a good boy (for the most part), and the barbarians have put down their weapons. What does any of this have to do with camp battles and running backs? Nothing really. I get paid by the word, and there's this last minute money league with an opening I just heard about. (Just kiddin', boss)

I just want to point out that I've been at this for awhile and people get a little too emotional about these RBs. I really don't. Over the years there's been one proven constant in fantasy football -- running backs are key. In the early days, understanding the supply and demand curve for running backs helped me own that league. In these modern times, it's become more complicated to exploit Stud RB Theory because of the wealth of information at everyone's fingertips. Expert sites, inside information, cheatsheets, heavily researched projections, ADP analysis, awesome draft software, etc.; it's all leveled the playing field, allowing the casual fan easy access to a competitive team with a shot at glory. Out of frustration, diehard junkies have developed both goofy ideas and sound strategies to overcome Stud RB Theory. Most of those approaches have done little more than validate the importance of running backs (and that includes you VBD and AVT sharks). My advice to those diehards (the goofy ones) is to give it a rest, love those RBs, and manage your teams more aggressively during the season.

As I discussed camp battles at TE and QB, I added some draft theory appropriate to the topics. That shouldn't be necessary for running backs. You know you need good ones. You know you need depth. You know there's scarcity at the position. So, you know you better draft them early.

On Friday July 1st, at 12:00.00 AM, when I started using again, the first thing I looked at was running backs. I was pleased to notice a continuation of last year's increased supply of featured backs has created a two year trend-- the more teams with featured RBs, the less frustrating running back by committee (RBBC). More featured RBs also means more opportunity for divergent draft strategy, more challenging competition for solid stud projections, more mistakes on draft day to exploit, and more talent falling to later rounds. It's all good, but most importantly, less camp battles at running back, means less for me to write about. As the process of note taking, quote seeking, and situation analyzing progressed from the off-season, to camp, and halfway through the pre-season, that thinking half-backfired.

Last year, I isolated 12 camp battles for discussion in this series, and added three minor notes on other situations. I figured the trend towards more featured backs would drop that down to nine or ten serious battles to discuss, and I was right. Below I discuss the nine situations that best qualify as true camp battles. It's the additional notes on other situations that became more involved, and perhaps more crucial this season. As a teaser, you may be surprised to find four highly ranked RBs-- Priest Holmes, Tiki Barber, Clinton Portis and Rudi Johnson-- have all found there way into this discussion of camp battles with caveats I want you to carefully consider.

Before we dig in, understand the focus here: It's camp battles. If some of these players jump off the page and into your hearts, realize LaDainian Tomlinson and many of his lesser peers are not in battles, therefore not being discussed, and many of them are very worthy of your heart's desire. I again refer you to the very useful FFToday Draft Plan.

Denver Broncos
Mike Anderson (9.5) vs. Tatum Bell (3.4) vs. Ron Dayne (15.5) vs. Quentin Griffin (15.5)

Being emotionally stable is an asset in life as well as fantasy football. If this situation has caused you any mental duress, just skip it. Those who keep their heads about them while others are losing theirs are often rewarded, and I'd rather we discuss this in private. Contrary to the opinion of legions of unbalanced fantasy fans, Denver HC Mike Shanahan is not schizophrenic. He doesn't hate fantasy football; he doesn't play mind games by keeping top secret training camp information from the media; nor, does he deliberately endeavor to ruin your season with deviant ideas that undermine his own team. It's not his fault that he runs one of the NFL's most prolific ground games and doesn't let you decide who should start for him. That's your problem.

Shanahan has struggled to find a feature back for his highly acclaimed zone blocking rushing attack. His chosen starters have been beset with injuries, struggled with consistency, and been difficult to read for fantasy purposes. So, there's been understandable turnover at the position. No one would love to see a few season's of dominant feature back production in Denver more than the Broncos themselves. For his part, Shanahan has been both forthright and consistent in his approach. He tells us who the starter is, sticks with him through the preseason, and gives him an honest shot at the job with a reluctance to replace him short of injury. That's fair enough. What else could you possibly ask for other than submitting Shanny's lineup?

A quick glance at the above ADPs tells us that Tatum Bell is the man Shanahan dubbed as his starter and is sticking with, right? Wrong. Tatum Bell is the man unbalanced fantasy fans are choosing as Denver's starter. It matters little to them that Shanahan chose Mike Anderson in early July. They're actually spending a 3rd round pick on a back up with serious competition for the #2 spot on the depth chart. They did the same thing a year ago when Shanahan told the world the job belonged to Quentin Griffin. Choosing Tatum Bell in the third round is like throwing big money on a roulette number while everyone else is playing poker. Bell's number may hit, and he's an explosive runner, but considering the sure performers still available in the 3rd round, even if you get lucky with Bell, you did so at unnecessary risk.

So, the starter in Shanahan's powerful system, Mike Anderson, has a 9th round ADP. That sounds like my kind of deal, but I'm not buying the 9th round value. The closer we get to the next two weekends of draft frenzy, the earlier Anderson will be leaving scratched up cheatsheets and joining rosters. I don't care who the starting running back is in Denver, if he's waiting for a roster in the seventh round, he's mine. That's value. And since his back-up was already drafted, don't worry about the handcuff unless the following sort of "creepy" information makes sense to you.

Anderson knows the system and has run effectively in preseason. He hasn't lit up the scoreboard, but he's done nothing to lose the job. A year ago the Broncos experimented with Griffin who many felt was a bad fit for the zone blocking scheme. They were right, but it's hardly fair to criticize Denver for the move. Anderson blew out his groin, Hearst was hobbled and done, Bell was injured and a rookie learning the playbook, Droughns was a needed fullback. Griffin had some good moments then struggled miserably before Shanahan finally dug deep and gave the fullback a shot. Droughns was better suited to the system and had a great year. Anderson isn't Griffin. Anderson fits the system, and if you recall, he was rookie of the year a few years ago-- in the system. It's been a long haul for Mike, but he's back ,and he's starting, and he'll be tough to replace, and he's available cheap.

Here's the "creepy" part. Ronday... *cough*... Ron Dayaee... *ahem*... Ron Dayne is having a great preseason in Denver. There, I said it (again). Hey, it's my job to report the facts. Don't shoot the messenger. Mike Shanahan is often accused of being an RBBC coach. This isn't exactly true. He's pretty loyal to his starter, then willing to take a hard look at his depth should the starter falter or go down to injury. It's not with his #1 guy where he thinks RBBC; it's when he needs to replace him. Everybody gets a shot. Let's see who can do this best when it's for real. I can't criticize that thinking either. It's how Droughns got his shot a year ago. So, if Anderson goes down, we shouldn't be at all surprised to see both Bell and Dayne toting the rock in Denver until one outshines the other. Do I really think Dayne has a shot? Sure, I'd guess a 50-50 shot in Anderson's absence. Don't try convincing those drafting Bell in the 3rd, but the reports on Dayne have been that good. They differ from past positive reports about Dayne's fine play. They include the fact that Dayne has been awful since leaving Wisconsin where he was almost unstoppable in a system identical to Denver's and a near polar opposite from New York's. Creepy, I know. But if I get Anderson cheap, I'm not embarrassed to handcuff him to Dayne with a late pick in a deep league. Denver backs rock when they get rolling, and you can never be positive who that might be. That's not something that should put you on anti-depressants; it's something to understand and exploit.

Even if Bell rises to the top (and he has a shot), my thinking on this one is of little risk. If Bell falls short, my thinking is gold, and those taking Bell early better not make any other big mistakes on draft day. You can usually spot yourself only one of those.

Minnesota Vikings
Michael Bennett (4.8) vs. Mewelde Moore (10.1)

Minnesota HC Mike Tice probably is schizophrenic. Okay, maybe a little bipolar. Maybe he just has a learning disability and doesn't realize what he has. Maybe he wears blinders after making a decision. He tried to anoint Michael Bennett as the starter and stick with him, but Mewelde Moore continues to look like a much better option. A reported mutiny among the coaches on the Viking ship may have more to do with Mewelde's big opportunity the next two weeks than Michael Bennett's neck. Maybe not, but that's one way to read this unsettled situation.

A sports talk host on the Vikings' flagship radio station announced that "Every coach in Minnesota believes Moore should be the starter, but Mike Tice." I take talk show hosts with a grain of salt, and this sounded like one filling air space and spouting off, but follow up reports did reveal some Viking coaches prefer Moore to Bennett. It's not surprising. I took some heat this time a year ago for stating the most talented back in Minnesota was the unknown rookie Mewelde. It was as obvious a year ago as it has been this preseason. The kid has game.

Three starts is a very small sample for judging NFL RBs, so don't get carried away with this stuff. In his three starts last season, Moore ran for 339 yards and added another 198 receiving. He averaged 5.8 yards a carry, and in a slightly under-reported stat, he led the NFL in yards after contact. Some think his skill set is that of a change of pace third down option. He hasn't played enough for us to be certain he can carry the load. We know he's a gifted receiver; we know he plays with terrific vision and balance; we know he breaks big plays with regularity; and we now know he has two weeks to take the starting job and run with it. This may sound like crazy talk, but he looks to me like what you might get if you morphed Marshall Faulk and Marcus Allen.

Michael Bennett is telling anyone who will listen that the neck strain is minor, and he's ready to go. Mike Tice isn't listening, and he's turning over the preseason keys to Moore. He's also making plans to start Moore in the season opener because he doesn't believe Bennett will be ready. The neck strain may have been the perfect excuse for Tice to save face and get the right man in the lineup afterall. But, I hate homespun psychology, and there's every possibility Bennett will take over as soon as Tice is convinced he's ready... and regardless of Moore's play. That's just the kind of guy Tice is.

So, in the middle of this confusion, expect Bennett to start falling down draft boards at an alarming rate, and expect Moore to shoot up two to three rounds. That's the best I have to offer, and my opinion from last season obviously hasn't changed. Moore is the more complete back. Given the job, and given good health, he'll be a steal in the 7th or 8th round. Bennett takes alot of flack from fantasy enthusiasts, but he's not exactly a slouch. Probably the fastest man in the NFL, and coming out of an offseason dedicated to making his lower body more durable, Bennett too can put up nice numbers if given the chance. My scouting report isn't nearly as important as Mike Tice's psychoanalysis. Unfortunately, I'm not qualified for that task. It's a go with your gut situation, and I don't do that in early rounds. So if Moore goes too early, call that round 6 for now with more information needed this weekend, I'll miss out on the results of my crazy talk, and be very hesitant about Bennett.

Tennessee Titans
Chris Brown (4.1) vs. Travis Henry (7.4)

The Titans boast two excellent running backs with great potential. HC Jeff Fisher hasn't hesitated to suggest an RBBC in Tennessee. Their ADPs were almost identical in early August, then Henry started missing practice with a bad toe and falling down the draft board. Had it been Brown missing camp, this situation would be bleak indeed. But, with the new guy learning a new system missing camp, this situation looks good for Chris Brown. He'll get the nod on opening day. It remains to be seen how much Henry plays, or if Brown can keep his own health, but my guess is Henry pinch hits like Davenport does for Green in Green Bay, and Brown's health remains something to worry about. His upside makes him worth the roster spot. This is the kind of player you couldn't expect to draft in the 4th round a couple years ago.

Finally, many debate which of these two is actually the better back. I'll chime in with a strong vote for Brown. At full strength he's been very impressive. He has great vision and slices through holes with surprising quickness for his frame, and he finishes plays with gamebreaking ability that's always a threat to score. He may not make it through the season, and you probably shouldn't take both Titan RBs unless Henry really falls, but for my money, Chris Brown is the clear winner of this camp battle, and has the potential to be a difference maker on your team.

Cleveland Browns
Lee Suggs (6.8) vs. Reuben Droughns (7.10) vs. William Green (15.9)

For the second straight season Lee Suggs has won a camp battle in Cleveland only to have his hopes dashed by a late injury. This time it's a sprained ankle, and as of yet, there's no timetable for his return. Reuben Droughns looks be a beneficiary of Suggs' misfortune and commented on the situation with sound advice for fantasy owners, "Injuries are such a big part of the game," said Droughns, who missed the preseason opener against the New York Giants with a sore hamstring. "With running backs, you can't ever have enough."

William Green has become an afterthought to fantasy owners with a late 15th round ADP, and it's hard to judge the prudence of that evaluation. From a pure running standpoint, Green brings a little more zip to an offense than Droughns. New HC Romeo Crennel has been impressed with the rest of Green's game, "He's a hard runner. He will run it in there. I like what I see, plus he's a willing blocker. Running backs in the NFL have to run, block and catch. He can do all of those.''

Don't get too excited by the quote. Green has been running with special teams this preseason, and Droughns isn't a willing blocker, he's an exceptional blocker; Droughns can't just catch, he has superb hands. It's not hard to imagine Droughns making the Broncos regret letting him go, and it's not hard to imagine such a complete player being exactly what Crennel is seeking. It shouldn't be lost on us that Droughns is the back brought in by Crennel himself at a time most observers thought the Browns already had quality at RB. I suspect all three backs will have opportunities this season, and if Crennel is as sharp as I think, the cream will rise to the top. Until then, this is a dicey situation with RBBC written all over it. There's a use for a Cleveland RB on your roster, and one may emerge with significant value. I'd call that a toss up with a three sided coin favoring Suggs and Droughns, but I don't like the risk reward ratio on this one.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Jerome Bettis (8.3) vs. Duce Staley (6.2) vs. Willie Parker (16.5) vs. Verron Hayes (17.8)

I believe it was Reuben Droughns who once said, "With running backs, you can't ever have enough." I doubt Reuben ever analyzed the Steeler RBs for fantasy purposes. They have enough already. The Steelers, with their power running game, provide several questionable options for fantasy teams looking for depth at the position. There's no reason to draft any of these. Bettis and Staley come with mid-round prices and are guaranteed to be in an RBBC. Duce is likely to fall a little further given his recent knee surgery. That might make him the best choice of the lot. He says he's ready to go right now, and looking forward to it.

HC Bill Cowher is happy with his depth at the position and plans to hold Duce out at least through the opener. Jerome Bettis is #1 on the depth chart, but no one expects him to carry the load all season. As long as he's healthy the short yardage opportunities will be his, and he's very accomplished at shoving the ball and a couple defenders across the goal line. Parker has emerged as the teams 3rd down back and looks to put up better numbers than Hayes. This RBBC is well-understood by fantasy drafters who know what they get, why and when. An injury here and there is always likely, and in that case, the survivors all get a boost in value. They all linger well after the rest of the league's primary RBs are gone. I like more promising situations with at least a chance of my choice being featured in the offense, but, you can never have enough RBs according to Reuben Droughns.

Rookies and more Rookies

Miami Dolphins
Ronnie Brown (4.5) vs. Ricky Williams (9.3)

The extended hold out of #1 draft pick Ronnie Brown, and the 4 game suspension of unretired Ricky Williams, created a camp battle that's been more political than physical. Lamar Gordon and Sammy Morris look to share the RB responsibilities early in the season in a situation that's been a trainwreck since Williams retired a year ago. Gordon and Morris will be replaced by Brown and/or Williams early in the season., and the Dolphins are currently shopping Gordon.

Sometimes it doesn't matter how good a back is, and Williams is a great one, maybe Brown could be better, if the run blocking isn't there, the performance is subpar. The Dolphins as a team have a sense of disarray about them that shouts, "Stay away!" Considering the talent level of Brown and Williams that's difficult advice to follow, but I'm going to be strong about this, and not worry about it if I'm wrong.

Brown gets to show us what he's got this weekend. If he really impresses, I'd certainly rethink his situation. On the other hand, if he really looks awful, Ricky Williams is the most talented 9th rounder I can remember. Cover your butt for four weeks if you take him, and good luck with this.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carnell Williams (3.12) vs. Michael Pittman (10.3)

Either HC Jon Gruden has played this situation very close to the vest, or the Bucs need a beat writer who understands the needs of fantasy fans. The highly acclaimed rookie, Carnell "Cadillac" Wiliams, is either slow to learn the system, or he's being protected like a valuable veteran. He's barely seen the field of play, giving us little information on what to expect. He is scheduled to display his skills this weekend. I'll be watching closely. Gruden's most compelling comment has been, "I already know what I have in him." Who knows what he knows, but that does sound positive coming from a coach. It's just not positive enough for me to put Caddy ahead of better known situations on my draft board as early as the 3rd round. It's important to add that this opinion really is based on limited information and can quickly change after his coming debut. I'm not covering my bases here, and for those of you waiting another week to draft, take a good look at how he plays, then follow what the coaches are saying next week and before making a firm decision about the rookie.

The excitement surrounding the Cadillac in fantasy circles has driven Michael Pittman's value down to the 10th round. Pittman quietly combined for 1300 yards and 10 TDs last season. In the least, he'll be active in the mix of an RBBC. I know a rookie running back almost always breaks into the NFL's top 10, and I understand Caddy could be that guy, but I'm probably going to pass on him so early in a draft. Pittman on the other hand, could reproduce last season's numbers if given the opportunity. If I haven't filled in my #4 RB, and he's still looking for a home in the 10th, I think that's pretty good timing, with pretty good upside, which is all you can hope for in a 10th round RB.

Arizona Cardinals
JJ Arrington (4.5) vs. Marcel Shipp (12.4)

Except for the names and a few other changes, if you talk about this, the story's the same one (as Tampa Bay's). Caddy and JJ are the two first rookie RBs being selected in fantasy drafts. The debate over who will be better has been spirited. Many like JJ for this season, but agree Caddy looks to have a better career opportunity. I haven't been able to form a firm opinion. At least information flowing from Cardinal's camp has been a little more helpful. Arrington has shown the measurables to be a quality NFL back-- good speed, excellent power for his size, sweet feet to make defenders miss, nice hands and a great work ethic. His competition, Marcel Shipp, isn't coming off a season as productive as Pittman's above. He was slowed by injury and struggled to find room in the offense alongside future Hall of Famer and finally retired Emmitt Smith.

So, this is looking better for JJ than Caddy, right? I'm not so sure. Shipp is healthy and has been explosive in the past. Not only is Emmitt out of the way, so is Troy Hambrick who earned time in front of a gimpy Shipp a year ago. Despite Arrington's measurables, he's looked tentative in the offense. He's a typical rookie facing a steep learning curve along with Shipp's competition. I have reports far removed from the media, and from Cardinal homers attending camp, that Shipp was running with the 1st team 50% of the time and looked much better in the 3rd down package. So, my conclusion is the same. I'm going to let another owner grab the rook before he'd interest me, and if I can't nab Pittman, Shipp should still be homeless. I may make room for him as my #4.

San Francisco 49ers
Kevan Barlow (5.3) vs. Frank Gore (12.11)

Kevan Barlow is probably the biggest bust from last year's fantasy drafts. Always chosen late in the first or early in the second round, his past owners are scorned. He ran for 822 yards and only 7 tds, with one of only two 100 yard games coming in week 17-- after the fantasy season concluded for most of us. That isn't enough production for a running back drafted at the stud level. The addition of Frank Gore to the mix has driven Barlow's ADP even further down than the less than mediocre season.

However, Gore hasn't been competing for the job. Sometimes these rookies get hyped, and that seems to be the case here. Gore missed time with an injured shoulder and Barlow will be a featured RB. Considering the RBBC around the league, that's enough to put him on our radars. Beyond that, as soon as Tim Rattay was announced as the starter, I moved Barlow up a tier on my draft board. He isn't my ideal for RB #3, but I don't play with fools, and he may be the best I can grab as the RBs fly off the board. If that's the case, I'll back up my starters with confidence and hope for the best. He looked borderline spectacular for a spell two years ago, and he says the addition of Gore will only make him better.

Around the League

Chicago Bears
Thomas Jones (6.9), Cedrick Benson (5.4)

The first round draft selection of Cedrick Benson, continuing with the rookie theme, has driven Thomas Jones value way down. Benson has been this seasons most annoying hold out, and there's no battle for the Bears' running back job. A year ago Jones was a hot commodity leaving fantasy drafts in the late 2nd round. He put in a decent season combining for almost 1400 total yards and 7 touchdowns. Most of those drafting him expected better. He was supposed to be a poor man's Priest Holmes and a perfect fit for the new season. Falling below expectations is another reason he's been downgraded.

I see this differently than most. After three weeks last season Thomas Jones was leading many scoring systems for NFL RBs. Then things started deteriorating in Chicago and Jones fell way behind the pace of many NFL backs. He closed the season with back to back 100 yard games and by that time few fantasy teams were still using this high draft pick. With another season in a system designed to highlight his skills, combined with the flashes of brilliance, unnecessary devaluation, and hold out of Benson; I'm going to predict a big season and big value for fantasy purposes. If he falls to the sixth as he has been, which could change given the lack of perceived competition, he is the best value at RB in the NFL this season. I've got him in my sights and suggest you do the same.

Atlanta Falcons
Warrick Dunn (4.5), TJ Duckett (7.12)

A year ago Duckett had a higher ADP than Dunn, and I made the right call warning readers not to be fooled. The fantasy production in Atlanta would belong to Dunn, and Duckett was being taken to soon. The situation remains the same but the ADPs make better sense. Warrick Dunn is one of the league's under-appreciated talents. Once again this season, I expect him to be nice insurance at the position, but his price has gone up.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Fred Taylor (4.6), LaBrandon Toefield (13.5), Alvin Pearman (15.2)

Fred Taylor underwent highly invasive knee surgery this off-season, hasn't played a down in preseason, and has remained atop the Jaguar depth chart. That's not saying much for Toefield who many expected to be seriously competing with Fred by now. Complicating matters, Alvin Pearman has the look of this year's Mewelde Moore. He may just be the best all-around back in Jacksonville, and if something shocking happens like Taylor getting injured, it's apparent Pearman and Toefield will share the rock.

One has to really take a hard look at Fred Taylor in the 4th round. If not for the knee problem, he'd be a late second, maybe early 3rd rounder this year, and there's many indications that things are looking up for the Jag offense. On the downward side of a career that never was what it could have been, Taylor has emerged as a team leader. He's been ready to test the knee for a couple weeks, and he'll be getting an opportunity this weekend. I wouldn't expect much. A handful of carries and back to the bench. Taylor insists he's in great condition and ready to go. If he's telling it straight, he's an unusual bargain in the mid 4th round. Pearman will likely be in free agency in most leagues, so keep a watchful eye on him. He's a great fit to what Jacksonville is trying to do, and neither Taylor or Toefield have ever been real impressive in the passing game.

Studs and the feared RBBC

Listed below are four great running backs all drafted by the very early 2nd round. Priest Holmes is still sometimes the #1 overall pick in fantasy football. None of the four stars below are in danger of losing their starting jobs. All of them are in danger of losing carries to their backups and some of them are happy to do so.

New York Giants
Tiki Barber (2.3), Brandon Jacobs (12.9)

In New York, Tiki Barber has openly campaigned for RBBC. He wanted it last year with Ron Dayne. Giants fans give this situation the cheesy name Thunder and Lightening. Rookie Brandon Jacobs is everything Tiki isn't. He's big, heck he's huge, and he's young and he's looked great in camp. Tiki is hoping Jacobs can lighten his load and take a dozen hits a game that Tiki can just watch. In Jacobs case, he'll be delivering the hits and softening up defenders for Barber's return to the game. It never worked out with Ron Dayne, but Jacobs seems cut from different cloth. Tiki is looking to keep his health, extend his career, and win more football games. It's hard to blame him, but that could be a losing proposition for fantasy owners. It's very hard to judge how much Jacobs will be used and how it might effect Barber's final stats.

Cincinnati Bengals
Rudi Johnson (2.3), Chris Perry (16.2)

The situation in Cincinnati is a little different. Chris Perry has just played great football. He was drafted high by the Bengals, and NFL teams don't like wasting high draft picks, especially when they look great on the field. None of this means Rudi Johnson is in danger of losing his job, but again, the Bengals aren't averse to using both backs to keep them fresh. The situation in NY is probably more precarious than this one. Rudi is a durable, reliable power running back who hasn't disappointed the Bengals. If Perry comes in to pinch hit for an occasional series, a rested Rudi could even benefit from the situation. Ahman Green's finest season included taking many series off and letting the other guys wear down the defense. It sure is a good situation for an improving Bengal team, but the fantasy outlook is a little cloudier than most think.

Washington Redskins
Clinton Portis (1.9), Ladell Betts (15.5)

The situation in Washington is a combination of the previous two. Nobody questions whether Betts has talent approaching Portis. But, HC Joe Gibbs can't help himself; he loves Ladell Betts bruising style of play. Which is odd to me, because Gibbs likes race cars, and there's no racier vehicle in the NFL than Clinton Portis. Then again, it's not so odd at all. Gibbs has a history of using straight ahead power runners, and that's what Betts brings to the table. So the rumored plan is to switch up running styles as in NY, with the hope that Portis benefits from the downtime as in Cincinnati.

Kansas City Chiefs
Priest Holmes (1.3), Larry Johnson (5.11)

Need I explain again? Considering their very high ADPs this is a situation you should already be aware of. It's the same thing, and it makes sense. Using a young buck like Johnson to keep the great Priest Holmes healthy is smart, especially if Johnson continues his brilliant play in the best rushing attack in the NFL. QB Trent Green has gushed about the Chiefs using both backs extensively. That's not his decision; it's HC Dick Vermeil's, and there's indications Green is telling it like it is.

If I was a fan of any of these teams, with the exception of the Redskins, I'd be hoping the RBBC was a reality. Tiki's a small guy carrying a huge load. Priest is way too valuable to wear down again, and I'd want to see just what Johnson can do week in and out. Perry is very likely a superior back to Rudi, and using both would give me alot of confidence that things are looking up in Cincy. But, I'm not a fan of any of these teams. I'm a strung out fantasy football junkie looking for a high dose fix at RB this season, and I don't like taking chances with these top tier guys. There's others in San Diego, Seattle, New Orleans, Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston and elsewhere who don't have these question marks.

I started this piece explaining I've been at this for a long long time, and I'm fully aware these kinds of rumors leak out occasionally. A good 75% of the time (guessing at the percentage) the rumors prove to be false. But, I looked at each of these situations for awhile. I read the various accounts that started the rumors. I tried hard to validate or discount them. I hoped to ease minds (including mine) on one or two of them. I can't. They all look like real possibilities, and even if the chance is 25%, I'm not happy about it. I've gone down the RBBC road unknowingly in the past. It's not a good thing.

But, keeping our perspective, and as always, seeking value, I see a bright green light for drafting anyone of those backups around their ADPs, maybe just a tad sooner on all but Larry Johnson. If the big gun goes down, you have a newly minted big gun of your own-- though I doubt Betts and Jacobs can perform anywhere near Portis and Barber. Still, I believe it was Reuben Droughns who once said, "With running backs, you can't ever have enough."

Now I don't want to be the reason you skipped Priest Holmes the season he raised the bar on his NFL record for TDs. But, I cannot write about this topic in good conscience and withhold my thoughts on this information, so... I'm just sayin'.

Next up-- The wonderful world of Wide Receivers