Outlook: A star within the NFL for years, Kelce gained worldwide recognition for dating Taylor Swift -- you may have heard it mentioned once or twice last year. While he still led the team in receptions (93) and receiving yards (984), the veteran missed the first and last games of 2023, and he saw his seven-year run of topping 1,000 yards come to an end. His game-to-game production was also spottier than usual, as he posted more than 100 yards in a game only twice compared to six games of less than 50.

With the Chiefs adding talent on the outside, perhaps this is the year they start leaning less on Kelce, who has 10 seasons under his belt and has played a ton of snaps. He'll turn 35 in October, and for the first time in a while you can make a strong argument that he doesn't deserve to be the first tight end drafted -- that may now be Detroit's Sam LaPorta. Even with things trending down, Kelce is still the safest tight end to draft, and he shouldn't be lower than No. 2 option at the position.

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Outlook: There are solid rookie seasons, and then there are the historic ones former Hawkeye Sam LaPorta put up last season. He wasn't only good for a rookie, he was the No.1 scoring fantasy tight end in any format imaginable. His 86-889-10 line on 120 targets put him in rarefied air in NFL history. LaPorta was thrust into an early season role as a receiver with the suspension to Jameson Williams, and continued to be the dance partner to St. Brown as the season continued. Not only did he also provide elite blocking, but was able to pile up 21 receptions, 178 yards and a score in the playoffs with a comically large brace on an injured knee. His historic start has already made him one of the best at his position, and with continuity in scheme and personnel, there is every reason to make LaPorta one of the first tight ends off the board.

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Outlook: For the first time since 2019, Kittle topped the 1,000-yard mark, putting up a 65-1020-6 line -- he was the only tight end to surpass 1,000 yards last year. That's the good news. The bad news is his week-to-week production was all over the place. Three times last year he reached triple digits. Four times he was held below 20 yards. You simply didn't see that kind of variance from other top guys at the position such as Kansas City's Travis Kelce, Detroit's Sam LaPorta, or Minnesota's T.J. Hockenson (knee) before he tore his ACL. It's an offshoot of playing in an offense with so many dynamic weapons, and it's not something that's likely to change.

Heading into his age-31 season, Kittle is a proven commodity. He's been mostly durable during his career, though he's only appeared in every game once in seven seasons, and he has averaged 960 yards and 6 TDs over the last six. The recent influx of talent at the position (LaPorta, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts, Jake Ferguson) makes ranking Kittle a bit more subjective. He's undeniably a TE1, and you could absolutely justify him as one of the top six. You could also drop him to borderline top-10 status if you preferred one of those younger options with a higher ceiling.

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Outlook: Nobody made bigger strides offensively for the Cardinals last season than McBride. After five games in 2023, the Colorado State alum had eight receptions for 79 yards and no touchdowns. He'd finish his second NFL campaign with 81 catches, 825 yards, and three scores. In the eight games he played with Murray, McBride posted a 53-538-2 line; if you project that over a 17-game schedule, that works out to 113 receptions, 1,143 yards, and 4.25 TDs.

Injuries played a part in McBride's rise to be sure -- Brown, the team's No. 1 receiver, didn't catch a pass after Nov. 26 -- and the arrival of Harrison as what the Cardinals hope will be a true WR1 puts a slight damper on the third-year tight end's outlook. Still, other than Harrison, none of Arizona's receiving options look as promising as McBride, and despite an influx of talent at the position around the NFL, it's hard not to view him as a top-five fantasy tight end for 2024.

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Outlook: Just two years ago, Kyle Pitts was being discussed as the future of the tight end position. He was just the second player at the position to go for 1000 yards as a rookie and seemed to have a skill set that no tight end possessed.

However, Pitts came crashing down to earth in the last two seasons, frustrating fantasy owners in the process. He's scored just 5 TDs the last two seasons and has lacked volume in the Falcons offense.

There is some good news. Like Drake London, betting on talent in a revamped offense with a new coaching staff is a good idea. Pitts' ability to run vertical, down-field routes and act essentially as a WR allows him to have an incredibly unique role. 85.6 percent of his routes came from the slot or outside, the 3rd highest rate among TEs. His 11.9-yard aDOT was also the highest mark among TEs by far.

Pitts is just 23 years old and has been set up to fail in every year of his NFL career. He now has a situation that will actually allow him to produce for fantasy purposes. Bet on his talent once again in 2024.

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Outlook: Dalton Kincaid of the Buffalo Bills showcased remarkable talent in his rookie season, despite initially starting as the second tight end on the team behind Dawson Knox. Despite this, he managed to amass an impressive 91 targets, a feat uncommon for rookie tight ends. Kincaid's emergence was notable, especially considering the rarity of rookies breaking into the top 12 at their position. However, his achievements were somewhat overshadowed by fellow rookie Sam LaPorta, who claimed the TE1 spot overall in 2023.

Now entering his sophomore season, Kincaid has solidified his position as the team's primary tight end, particularly with Buffalo's offseason departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. Though he may have to contend a bit with Knox for playing time, Kincaid's prowess as a pass-catcher and overall playmaker positions him as a vital asset on a team in need of dynamic receivers. With the potential to ascend to fantasy superstardom, Kincaid offers managers both a high floor and elite upside, making him a wise investment despite a somewhat hefty draft price.

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Outlook: Jake Ferguson's 2023 season was notable for his high target volume, with over 100 passes coming his way -- a rare feat for tight ends. Despite this, his efficiency was lacking, catching just 71 passes for 761 yards and five touchdowns. Leading all tight ends in red zone targets but only converting five of them into touchdowns highlights his struggles in high-leverage situations. Given that other than Sam LaPorta, no tight end scored more than six touchdowns last season, Ferguson's five touchdowns underscore the broader challenges at the position in 2023.

Ferguson's athleticism and target share limitations hinder his potential to break into the high-end TE1 tier. However, he stands out as the top tight end in the Cowboys' offense, ensuring he receives enough opportunities to provide a stable floor for fantasy managers. This consistency is something many other tight ends being drafted behind him cannot offer, making him a relatively safe option.

The only scenario that one could envision where Ferguson's value could significantly increase is if CeeDee Lamb were to miss time, opening up a substantial number of targets. With Brandin Cooks being the only other proven pass-catcher in the offense, Ferguson could see a significant uptick in targets in a Lamb-less offense. However, Lamb has been durable throughout his career, making this scenario unlikely. Therefore, it's not advisable to draft Ferguson higher based on this hypothetical situation alone.

Ferguson's reliability and volume make him a solid TE option, but his lack of elite athleticism and target share cap his upside, positioning him as a steady but not spectacular mid-to-low-end TE1 for the 2024 season.

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Outlook: In 2022 the Browns made the head scratching move of making Njoku one of the highest paid tight ends in the league. Clearly Cleveland was paying for what was to come, as Njoku had a career year in 2023 as a lynchpin player on offense. His 123 targets were 3rd among tight ends and his 81 receptions for 882 yards and 6 touchdowns were all career highs by a wide margin. Though he can struggle with inconsistent hands, his elite measurables make him a threat for all levels of the defense. While he was a league winner with Flacco down the stretch of last season, the addition of Jeudy, question marks around Watson and the change of the offense, leave Njoku closer to the bottom of the TE1 pile than the top.

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Outlook: A year ago, the tight end class was considered exceptionally deep. This year, it was Bowers and then everyone else. While you can't argue the talent, the decision is a bit of a head scratcher coming one year after the Raiders spent a second-round pick on Michael Mayer, who some regarded as the top tight end in a group that included Sam LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft. Sure, the Raiders could choose to utilize a lot of two-tight end sets with Bowers floating around, but it's still a curious use of resources from the Silver and Black.

As a prospect, Bowers checks a lot of boxes. He has good size (6-foot-3, 243 pounds) and speed, and he filled a hybrid tight end/receiver role at Georgia, which generates some hope that the Raiders will find creative ways to get him the football. Ultimately, it's all about opportunities for Bowers. If there's a weakness in the rookie's game it's blocking, and because of that it wouldn't be surprising to see the more physical Mayer log more snaps this year. We've seen talented young tight ends struggle to make an impact *cough* Kyle Pitts *cough* and there's a chance that'll befall Bowers. He's a fringe TE1 with risk/reward potential.

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Outlook: After a strong rookie season and decent year 2, Freiermuth fizzled last year. A hamstring injury in Week 4 cost him five games, and outside of two early touchdowns and a 9-120 aberration in Week 12, he wasn't even worth rostering for most of the season. A revamped quarterback room, and 100+ lost targets to replace should certainly work in his favor as he opens the year as Pittsburgh's de facto #2 receiver. Still only 25, Freiermuth has the chance to continue to grow as a receiver, and has past production in his favor. Arthur Smith features tight ends, as evidenced by Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith both finishing in the top 17 last season. The personnel in this offense is frighteningly similar to what Atlanta had recently, so don't be surprised if Freiermuth becomes a sneaky low end TE1 option again.

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