Every fantasy football team manager has been
there before; there is a player you are absolutely in love with
and must draft, even if you have to reach a bit for him. On the
flip side there are always players that seem to fall and even if
you aren't totally convinced, you feel compelled to draft them based
on the value they present. There is always a risk/reward factor
you calculate based on many things including past performance, current
situation, injury risk, competition, upside, and value, just to
name a few. The following players stand out to me as having a ton
of potential but also come with big question marks that may make
drafting them at their current ADP a bit too risky.
Note: ADP based on 12-team, standard scoring leagues.
It would be a surpirse if Peyton finished
outsdie the top 8 QBs but his Rd 4 ADP is a steep price to
pay.
Risk:
After an historic 2013 campaign, Peyton Manning fell back down
to earth last season, at least by his high standards, throwing
16 fewer touchdowns and nearly 750 yards less than the previous
season. While he still finished as most leagues fourth best QB,
Manning actually ranked outside the top 10 for the final five
weeks of the season where he threw more interceptions (6) than
touchdowns (5). Now at age 39 and growing concerns over the velocity
on his throws, Manning has fewer weapons (no Wes
Welker or Julius
Thomas ) a new coach who likes a more balanced attack, and
a below average offensive line. Manning might have finally reached
the point where he becomes “just a guy” rather than an elite player
in fantasy football. As a fantasy starter Manning may have just
enough left in the tank to get you through, but as an early 4th
round pick there is simply no value to be had.
Reward: How soon some people forget
the odds Manning overcame just a few short years ago to dominate
the league as much as anyone who plays his position. Last season
started off as strong as ever until a quad injury hampered his
play late in the season, making his final numbers look slightly
less impressive than we may be used to. But Peyton is still one
of the most cerebral signal callers ever to play the game, he
still has an elite receiver in Demaryius
Thomas, a great complementary receiver in Emmanuel
Sanders, and an emerging talent in Cody
Latimer, who gives Manning another big target in the red zone.
Add to the mix an easier schedule this season and the addition
of veteran Owen
Daniels, and it is very possible a healthy Manning actually
slightly improves his numbers from last season. Outside of Andrew
Luck and Aaron
Rodgers there seems to be no safer bet at the position than
Manning, and you can get him a round or two after those guys,
so there is an argument to be made that Manning in Round 4 is
excellent value.
Buy or Sell at ADP: I like Manning’s
resume, his poise, his smarts, and even his weapons this season,
but the reality is the Broncos window is closing to win a Super
Bowl and that is why I believe they will make a slight switch
in game-plan and move to a much more balanced attack in order
to preserve Manning’s health, keep their solid defense fresh,
and utilize C.J.
Anderson to his fullest. This is not to say that Manning’s
days as a top fantasy starter are over, on the contrary, I’d be
surprised if he finished outside the top 8 of quarterbacks. The
reason I’m selling here is more to do with the quarterbacks I
see as rising around him and even a slight fall by Manning, which
I predict will occur, means he becomes more of a middle-of-the-pack
starter, rather than an every week elite option. At an early fourth
round ADP there are just too many potential studs at other positions
available (Jordan
Matthews, DeAndre
Hopkins, Travis
Kelce to name a few) and too many other solid QB options available
much later (Matt
Ryan, Ryan
Tannehill, etc.) to make Manning worth pulling the trigger
on so early in your draft.
Risk: Bradford has missed 31 of
a possible 80 NFL games due to injury. Let that sink in first,
then realize he now plays for a team that runs as many offensive
plays as anybody in the league, has an average offensive line,
and likes to have the quarterback run around to keep defenses
honest. What could possibly go wrong here? Even if you take away
the huge injury risk, the weapons Bradford has are either unproven
or very pedestrian and it will obviously take some time to learn
a new system and gel with all new players. Add this to the fact
that most of the talent on offense lies in the backfield trio
of DeMarco
Murray, Ryan
Mathews, and Darren
Sproles, and you have a situation where Bradford ‘s main job
may be racking up hand-off’s more than fantasy points. With QB
being a fairly deep position, why take a chance on such a risky
proposition?
Reward: While Bradford’s career
thus far has been marred by injury, those with a longer term memory
must recall that Bradford was one of the most heralded prospects
of the past decade. Bradford’s accuracy, decision making, size,
and awareness are at near elite levels and in a system like Chip
Kelly’s, Bradford should thrive on making quick reads. While the
Eagles do not have an elite receiver, Kelly’s system does not
necessarily need one to thrive and Jordan
Matthews, Zach
Ertz, Darren
Sproles, and (potentially) Nelson
Agholor are all physically gifted and solid fits in this passing
offense. Under Kelly, the Eagles as a team have produced back-to-back
top 10 fantasy QB’s the past two years in total points scored,
and Bradford is easily the most talented of any starter the Eagles
have had the past few years. In the early 11th round you are potentially
getting a top 8 QB that is being drafted like a high-end backup.
That’s a bargain my friends.
Buy or Sell at ADP: Bradford reminds
me of a really high-end, finely tuned sports car that has just
been sitting in the garage the past few years with some engine
damage, but is finally ready to be driven hard. I have been a
big believer of Bradford’s ever since he was drafted because I
really think he is the total package, therefore he is a buy to
me. Obviously you can’t discount the injury risk, it’s there,
but to me you go big or go home when it comes to going for a fantasy
championship. The potential is clearly there for a top 8 season
this year based on the offensive scheme alone so being able to
draft a guy like that in the 11th round, as the 15th QB drafted
(on average) is a total steal to me. Strategy-wise I think you
have 2 options when targeting Bradford; take him as your starter
and draft a guy like Joe
Flacco or Teddy
Bridgewater a few rounds later as a backup, or draft a guy
like Ryan
Tannehill in the 8th or 9th round and take Bradford a round
later. Either way, you are setting up your team nicely, stockpiling
players at harder to fill positions first and still having a ton
of upside at quarterback.
