Bye Weeks: Baltimore, Kansas City,
Robby Anderson has scored a touchdown in
his last 3 games and gets a leaky Bucs-D in Week 10.
Grab a Helmet
Anderson @ TB: Anderson was super sleeper material way
back in preseason drafts as savvy fantasy GMs reasoned he could
end up being the only viable option in the Jets’ WR corps for 2017.
He likely would have had New York not made a play for Jermaine Kearse
in an eleventh hour deal just a week before the season started.
The newly acquired Kearse didn’t disappoint in his first couple
games for the Jets, notching 24.3 points in Weeks 1 and 2 while
Anderson played second fiddle with a paltry 5.0. Since Week 3, however,
the Temple product has almost doubled his teammate’s output (67.4
v. 37.7 points) and has lived up to that super sleeper preseason
billing after all. There’s a lot of football to be played and Kearse
could still wrest that WR1 title away, but I’d recommend riding
the hot hand. Start Anderson against Tampa Sunday.
Tate v. CLE: Marvin Jones hogged the headlines Monday
when he (once again) flame-broiled the Green Bay secondary, but
a closer look at the stats tells us Matt Stafford was an equal opportunity
dealer on this night. Yes, Jones garnered more targets than Tate
(11 to 9), but their lines were otherwise remarkably similar. While
Jones was grabbing seven passes for 109 yards, Tate was corralling
seven more for 113 yards. Of course, two of Jones’ receptions were
in the end zone and he just missed on another end zone target in
the second half. Though he’ll likely continue to be Stafford’s preferred
red zone option, Tate is usually good for more volume (50 receptions
to date v. 33 for Jones). That makes the two virtually indistinguishable
in PPR formats. Cleveland is stout against the run but outmanned
in the passing game and that’s where Detroit thrives. Start Tate.
Benjamin v. NO: In-season blockbusters are exceedingly
rare in the NFL, but this year featured several of them and none
bigger IMHO than the one that brought Benjamin to Orchard Park.
Buffalo’s decision to part ways with Sammy Watkins prior to Week
1 seemed to signal the start of a prolonged rebuild and, possibly,
the end of the Tyrod Taylor era. Somebody forgot to tell Taylor,
though, who somehow persevered with a cobbled-together group of
pass-grabbers and kept the Bills relevant through the first half
of the season. They’re so relevant, in fact, that adding Benjamin
now looks like it could legitimately vault Buffalo into the playoff
picture. It’s always dicey trusting a WR playing his first game
with a new QB, but the former Panther is an unusual specimen who’s
a turnkey option in the red zone. I think he scores this Sunday
against a familiar opponent.
Grab Some Wood Jordy
Nelson @ CHI: They don’t have the equivalent of Wins
Above Replacement (WAR) in the NFL, but if they did, Aaron Rodgers
would be the runaway leader every season. With him, the Pack is
a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Without him, they’re NFC cannon
fodder and only marginally better than the long-time rival they
oppose this Sunday, the rebuilding Bears. Nelson easily took the
biggest value hit when Rodgers went down, going from a top 5 WR
producer to out of the top 20 in three short weeks. I suspect
he’ll slip even farther down the rankings as the Pack continues
to scale back the offense for Brett Hundley. Nelson was already
becoming more TD-dependent this season even before Rodgers got
hurt (no 100-yard games), but now those TDs have mostly dried
up and he’s looking like a borderline WR3 at best. Sit him against
an improving Chicago defense.
Hilton v. PIT: Hilton’s roller-coaster ride continued
last Sunday with a virtuoso 175-yard 2-TD performance against
the Texans, good for 29.5 points, best overall at the position.
He’s now packed 78% of his fantasy production into just three
games, or one-third of his total 2017 appearances. Though he likely
helped win you games those three weeks, you should be highly dubious
he can reproduce similar stats against a Pittsburgh team giving
up only 14.5 points/game to opposing WRs, or fewer than half what
Hilton scored against Houston. Only Jacksonville has been better
against the position this season. Here’s something else to consider:
In the two games following his previous best efforts (Weeks 4
and 6), Hilton totaled only 4.9 points. Combined. It’s hard sitting
someone down after they’ve single-handedly propelled you to victory,
but it’s just business. Resist the recency bias and sit T.Y. down
against the Steelers Sunday.
Fuller @ LAR: Fuller’s unsustainable touchdown rate
was ripe for regression to the mean even before Deshaun Watson
suffered a torn ACL, though he definitely had me wondering after
tacking on two more against a stellar Seattle secondary. Now that
Tom Savage is running the show in Houston, it’s safe to
wonder whether the former Golden Domer should even be in your
lineup, let alone whether he can continue scoring six-pointers.
The targets were still there last weekend (eight, matching his
season high), but the results looked drastically different (just
two catches for 32 yards and no TDs). Savage isn’t close
to replacement value for Watson and was spraying the ball all
over the place last Sunday. DeAndre Hopkins may be talented enough
to stay relevant with a scattershot wingman throwing him pigskins,
but I’m not sure Fuller is, especially since he relies so
heavily on the deep ball.