Deebo Samuel becomes the instant favorite
to assume slot duties in San Francisco.
2.04 – WR Deebo Samuel, SF
Although he wasn't my highest-ranked receiver, Samuel may be my
favorite in this draft class. He offers surprising speed (4.48)
for a receiver who plays so much like a running back with the
ball in his hands. Pro Football Focus charted Samuel with 21 broken
tackles on his 62 catches, further proving he is a handful for
defenders. In his last meaningful college game, he was arguably
the best player on the field against eventual national champion
Clemson, finishing with 10 catches for 210 yards and three touchdowns.
In San Francisco, Samuel becomes the instant favorite to assume
slot duties while presumed No. 1 receiver spends more time on
the outside. Samuel is talented enough to eventually overtake
Dante Pettis as Jimmy Garoppolo's favorite wideout, but even if that
doesn't happen, he projects as a long-term tag-team partner for
last year's second-round pick. Owners probably need to value him
as a WR5 for redraft purposes, although a strong training camp/preseason
might bump him up a bit from that.
2.10 – QB Drew Lock, DEN
There was some speculation Denver might spend a first-round pick
on Lock - especially after they traded back to No. 20 - so the
Broncos have to be happy to land the player they will groom to
be Joe Flacco's heir apparent. It's not a bad landing spot for
that reason because even though he is a three-plus year starter
at Missouri, he's still a bit of a developmental project. That,
along with his inconsistency, are the main reasons Lock ends up
being the fourth quarterback off the board after entering the
season as the favorite to be the first. It is also interesting
because although his comps are Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler,
he is perhaps the strongest-armed quarterback in this draft, which
makes him a good choice to back up Flacco. Lock's aforementioned
inconsistency happens in part because he knows he has a strong
arm and trusts it too much, so hopefully a two-year apprenticeship
serves him. He has no redraft value barring an injury to Flacco
and doesn't figure to be anything than a back-end selection in
rookie drafts.
2.18 – TE Irv Smith, MIN
The Vikings have been trying to find a complement to Kyle Rudolph
for some time and may have just found his replacement instead.
Smith is a bit undersized at 6-3 and 243 pounds and didn't show
particularly well at combine (32.5" vertical, 110" broad)
or measure out well (74 7/8" wingspan, 31 1/2" arms),
but he is a well-rounded player who probably would've been the
top-rated tight end in many drafts. Smith is a good route-runner
and does damage after the catch, which has never been one of Rudolph's
strong points. Assuming Rudolph is nearing the end in Minnesota,
Smith will start sooner than later for the Vikings, although is
not a particularly good bet for rookie-year production. His dynasty
outlook is rosier, however, and he'll probably be worth a pick
in the third round in rookie drafts.
2.19 – WR A.J. Brown, TEN
My No.2 ranked receiver in this draft class, Brown is a big man
with strong hands and an ability to make something happen after
the catch. Per Pro Football Focus, he forced 17 broken tackles
and only dropped five passes on 90 catchable targets in 2018.
He also had 24 receptions of 20-plus yards (fifth in FBS). The
interesting of Brown getting drafted by Tennessee is that he spent
the majority of his career at Ole Miss in the slot, but he'll
be asked to begin his pro career outside after the Titans handed
a big free-agent deal to Adam Humphries in the offseason. He proved
toward the end of the season he could thrive on the outside, but
the landing spot for fantasy purposes isn't all that great - at
least not immediately. Corey Davis will continue to be the clear
No. 1 receiver and Delanie Walker figures to be the top option
in the passing game if he's healthy. He's a possibility to be
worth a late-round flier in redraft, but it's hard to like him
as anything more than a second-round pick in rookie drafts.
2.21 – RB Miles Sanders, PHI
That comes as no surprise Philadelphia went running back on Day
2 of the draft. Although the Eagles traded for Jordan Howard,
he is a free agent after the season and may not be versatile enough
to be considered the long-term answer at the position. Sanders
followed in the rather large footsteps of Saquon Barkley and accounted
for himself quite nicely in his one season as the starter at Penn
State. Per Pro Football Focus, Sanders ranked eighth (out of 55
qualified backs) in yards after contact per touch (3.68) and 20th
in forced missed tackles per touch (0.202). He even managed to
total 322 yards after getting contacted at or behind the line
of scrimmage, ranking seventh among the 96 FBS backs with 60 or
more such carries. Ball security was an issue for him, however,
so perhaps Philadelphia will make sure to work with him on that
while sitting behind Howard in 2019. He probably needs to be considered
a handcuff for Howard this spring and summer. In rookie drafts,
he figures to be a second-round consideration.
2.24 – WR Mecole Hardman, KC
The Chiefs likely held off on announcing what figures to be the
eventual release of Tyreek Hill until they had his replacement
in place, and Hardman will get the first chance to be that guy.
Hardman has only played receiver for two years after arriving
at Georgia as a defensive back, so Kansas City will be hoping
they can teach him to be a pro receiver as quickly as they did
Hill. Built in the Tyler Lockett/John Brown/Marquise Goodwin mold,
Hardman projects to be the obvious field-stretching threat that
Kansas City will almost certainly lose when Hill is gone. For
what it's worth, he will bring value as a return man. Due to the
offense in Kansas City, he'll be worth rostering in redraft leagues
if he emerges as a starter during his rookie year, but it's going
to take a long time for him to approach Hill's lofty production
- if he ever does. Because of his landing spot, he may sneak into
the first round of rookie drafts, although that feels like it
would be a bit of a reach.
2.25 – WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, PHI
The analytics community loves Arcega-Whiteside, and there's no
question it has to do with his touchdown production and ability
to win in contested-catch situations (he led the draft class with
19, per Pro Football Focus). Arcega-Whiteside was the lowest-rated
of the 11 I studied in large part because I'm not sure his style
(he literally boxes out a defender as if a deep ball/red zone
throw is a rebound) will actually play at the NFL level. If it
doesn't, I have my doubts as to whether or not he's fast or twitchy
enough to create any kind of separation consistently in the NFL.
With that said, Philadelphia obviously believes he has a chance
to either complement and possibly replace Alshon Jeffery or DeSean Jackson. It's hard to beat his landing spot, however, and that
alone will make him worth considering should either of the two
veterans get hurt. The fact he ended up in Philadelphia will probably
push him into the first round of rookie drafts, although that
also feels like it would be a reach.
2.27 – WR Paris Campbell, IND
Campbell finished with 90 catches last season and may have been
the most feared receiver in the Big Ten last season. He did that
despite receiving 90 of his 111 targets within 10 yards of the
line of scrimmage. Campbell ran such a limited route tree at Ohio
State that it is impossible to know what he really is, but his
measureables are those of a receiver Indianapolis hopes can stretch
the field for T.Y. Hilton. While he's developing as a receiver,
he could very well serve as the same Swiss Army knife role he
occupied from time to time in college. It would make sense if
the Colts break them in this way since Campbell excels in space
and can create offense without having to run a route. He'll be
another rookie that will be on the redraft radar, even though
he'll be no better than fourth in line for targets right away.
His landing spot figures to push him in the first round of rookie
drafts.
2.30 – WR Andy Isabella, ARI
The FBS leader in receiving yards last season, Isabella was my
fourth-ranked receiver among the 11 I studied before the draft.
Although he's not physically imposing at 5-9 and 188 pounds and
likely limited to slot duties in the NFL, it's not hard to see
what Arizona is thinking here. The Cardinals will almost certainly
be operating their own form of the "Air Raid" offense
under new HC Kliff Kingsbury and will need two players capable
of playing the slot on more than half of the snaps. A player that
I described as "Wes Welker with a hint of Tyreek Hill,"
Isabella is among the fastest players in the draft (4.31) and
will almost certainly be used on jet sweeps and the like to create
favorable matchups. I believe he can make a significant fantasy
impact in his rookie year and will be worth a pick late in redraft
leagues. Isabella is very much worth a late first-round pick in
rookie drafts.
2.32 – WR D.K. Metcalf, SEA
A very interesting pick for a number of reasons. Ranked by many
as the top receiver on the board after he blew up the combine,
it's almost as if evaluators started remembering that Metcalf
struggled to stay healthy at Ole Miss and didn't produce all that
much. At this point of his career, Metcalf is a 227-pound deep
threat. What makes this pick interesting is that it may be an
indirect admission that Seattle will be moving on from Doug Baldwin
- he of the three offseason surgeries - sooner than later since
Tyler Lockett got a huge extension last year and can play the
slot. Initially, Metcalf might push David Moore for playing time
when he is ready. Redraft owners should not expect much of a rookie-year
impact from him in Seattle's run-heavy offense, and it will be
entirely on Metcalf's shoulders as to whether or not he develops
his route-running to the point where he is anything more than
a deep threat. His measurables figure to make him a first-round
pick in rookie drafts, although it may take 2-3 years before owners
get any return on investment from him.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
