If you have gotten this far and are still paying attention to
fantasy football, you are either in your fantasy championship
or playing DFS. Either way, it’s about what a player can
do for you this weekend, not over the long haul. It doesn’t
matter if he was your No. 1 draft choice or a waiver wire pickup.
It only matters that he will perform up to, or exceed, expectations
this weekend.
Truths
Truth is the property of no individual, but is the treasure
of all men.
- Ralph Waldo Emerson
Odell Beckham Jr. has racked up some gaudy
numbers but his WR1 status won't help you in Week 16.
1) Cam Newton leads all quarterback
scoring over the past three games, averaging 38 FPts/G.
That certainly shouldn’t surprise anyone. He’s playing
at an MVP level. What might surprise you is that Tyrod Taylor (27.2
FPts/G), Kirk Cousins (27.0) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (25.8) are also
in the top-10 over the past three weekends while Aaron Rodgers (22.0),
Philip Rivers (17.1) and Matt Ryan (15.1) are not. Rodgers and Ryan
have tough matchups this Sunday, Arizona and Carolina, respectively,
so consider sitting them if you have a viable backup playing a weaker
defense.
2) Likely waiver-wire pickup, David
Johnson of Arizona, leads all running backs in production over the
last three weeks with 71.2 fantasy points (23.7 FPts/G).
Johnson gave fantasy owners a scare just before half-time against
Philadelphia when he took a blow to his knee, but he came back and
put together an excellent second half to post a stunning 40.9 fantasy
points. The third-round pick out of Northern Iowa this spring was
no better than No. 3 on the depth chart to begin the season, but
now he could be carrying your team to a fantasy championship. He
is a perfect example of why late-round draft picks and early season
waiver claims matter.
3) Odell Beckham Jr. (91-1396-13) owns
a pair of million dollar hands and a 10-cent brain.
At least that’s what his fantasy owners will be thinking when
they see him in street clothes due to his well-deserved one-game
suspension while they are competing for a title this weekend without
him. Only a successful appeal on Wednesday could save OBJ’s
fantasy owners. Don’t hold your breath. Rueben Randle could
be a viable starter in Week 16 when Beckham’s suspension is
upheld and is owned in just 50 percent of all leagues.
4) Over the past three games, the Seattle
Seahawks have, not one, but two wideouts who are top-10 receivers.
True statement. The team that traded an All-Pro center to get a
top weapon for quarterback Russell Wilson, might just have found
out they had a couple of pretty good weapons already on their roster.
Doug Baldwin has accumulated seven touchdowns in the past three
games along with 221 yards on 15 receptions and leads the NFL with
13 touchdown receptions this season. Rookie teammate Tyler Lockett
has added 18 receptions for 249 yards and three scores over the
past three games. Did you know that Lockett is a free agent in almost
40 percent of all leagues?
5) In case you haven’t been paying
attention, the Kansas City Chiefs D/ST has posted double-digit points
in four of their last six games.
Over their eight-game winning streak, they have amassed 28 sacks,
20 takeaways and turned four of the turnovers into touchdowns. They
will face Johnny Manziel and the Browns, who rank 26th in turnovers
having yielded 25 already this season, in Arrowhead Stadium. The
Kansas City defense has turned the ball over at least once in every
home game since Nov. 16, 2014.
Lies
''They say'' is often a great liar.
- Proverb
1) In baseball “they say” good pitching beats good hitting.
Around the NFL they say a good defense beats a good offense and
wins championships.
That wasn’t true last weekend in Pittsburgh where Antonio Brown
again proved to be unstoppable. Despite being covered by Chris
Harris, who had not given up a touchdown pass in two seasons,
Brown ended the cornerback’s streak as part of his 16-catch, 189-yard,
two touchdown afternoon. OK, Brown is only unstoppable when he has
Ben
Roethlisberger throwing him the ball. He has averaged 19.1 FPts/G
with Roethlisberger under center and 6.0 when someone else is throwing
him the ball. Thank goodness Big Ben is signed through 2020.
2) Statistics say Jordan Reed leads
tight ends in scoring over the past three games, averaging 13.9
FPts/G, which would suggest he’s a great play against the weak Philadelphia
pass defense.
Not so fast. While the Eagles rank 24th in passing yards allowed
and 30th in touchdown passes allowed (30), they are actually pretty
good against opposing tight ends, yielding just 5.6 FPts/G. That
has them ranked as the third-best in the league. It is speed receivers
that light up the Eagles secondary like a Christmas tree. Think
former Eagles speedster DeSean Jackson! Jackson has played well,
when healthy, and is averaging 10.4 FPts/G in seven contest, including
a season’s best 6-153-1 effort, last week against the Bills.
3) During his weekly radio show, Matt
Ryan said that Julio Jones surpassing Marvin Harrison's single-season
receptions mark of 143 is possible.
Possible yes, probable no. Jones is a great receiver and has posted
a league-leading 118 receptions in 14 games, but he would need 25
receptions over the final two games. That’s too much to ask
considering he’ll face Josh Norman and the Carolina Panthers
in Week 16. He was held to seven catches for 88 yards the last time
these two met up in Week 14. The Falcons still have faint playoff
hopes so can’t just feed Julio the ball. At least not this
weekend. Of course, if Atlanta is out of it by Week 17 (they would
need to win plus a Seattle and Minnesota loss in Week 16 to stay
alive) they could throw to Jones 25 times, but that wouldn’t
help most fantasy owners.
4) I almost always draft a kicker who
plays indoors or in a warm climate because it will pay off when
the weather turns ugly.
I’m still waiting for that bad weather. They tell me it will
be a record 74-degrees on Christmas Eve day in Philadelphia. For
this weekend’s games, only the New York Giants-Minnesota game
has a temperature forecasted to be below freezing. Very few games
have been affected by snow this season. Thank you Mother Nature
for eliminating one of my advantages.
5) When you used a high draft choice
for a stud running back you expected it to pay dividends in the
fantasy playoffs.
