8/13/12
Because the draft plays such a huge role in the success or failure
of your fantasy team, every single pick you make is crucial. Blowing
even just one pick may prove to be a disaster for your team, so
going into the draft you should make sure you know what players
to jump on, which ones to pass on, and when it’s a good time
to take each player. In this piece I will highlight 10 players who,
for one reason or another, might just ruin your draft. Most of these
players are or have been great fantasy players, but circumstances
make each of them players to avoid at or near their current ADP.
Note: ADP based on 12-team, standard scoring leagues.
1.
QB Cam Newton, Carolina
ADP: 2.09
Newton burst onto the scene last year as a rookie and set historic
marks both in the NFL and in fantasy football. His 14 rushing touchdowns
and over 4,000 passing yards carried many fantasy teams throughout
the year, and Newton never scored less than double-digit fantasy
points in a game—very impressive for anyone, but especially for
a rookie. With these kinds of numbers and a full offseason to get
better, why do I label Newton a draft killer? First of all, Newton
regressed last year as a passer the more the season went on. After
his first two games, where he threw for a ridiculous 854 combined
yards, he was able to throw for more than 300 yards in a game just
one other time. As defenses got more game tape of Newton, they were
able to better defend him, and now they’ve had about eight months
to find all his weaknesses. Of course it was Newton’s legs that
did a lot of the damage against defenses last year, to the tune
of 14 touchdowns and more than 700 yards. While I do not expect
Cam to become a strict pocket passer this year, it is highly unlikely
that he will duplicate, or come close to, last year’s rushing numbers.
First of all, defenses will plan against that more, especially at
the goal line. Second, the Panthers have to realize that keeping
Newton healthy may determine the future of their franchise, and
so giving him 8-10 rushes a game is really rolling the injury dice.
Finally, the Panthers now have three very good running backs, including
the newly acquired Mike
Tolbert, who really looks the part of a goal-line back. Add
all this to the fact that Steve
Smith is now 33 and the Panthers failed to add any dynamic playmakers
in the passing game, and you begin to see that there is no place
to go but down for Newton this year. Look, I’m not saying he will
drop out of the top 10 fantasy QBs or fail to put up respectable
numbers, but with an ADP of 2.09, you are paying more for last year’s
numbers than the significant drop-off that is likely to happen this
year. My advice is to take a quality RB (Charles?), a stud WR (Jennings?
White? Jones?), or maybe even the best TE (Graham?) in the middle
to late second round and wait on a QB like Vick (4.02), Ryan (7.02),
or Peyton
Manning (5.12), all of whom should put up similar points to
Newton at a much better value.
2.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville
ADP: 1.12
I love watching MJD as much as anybody; he has power, heart, and
a motor that just won’t quit. Even on a bad team with no real
passing game, he finished as the league’s leading rusher last
year and a top 5 running back in fantasy. The problem with him is
not his talent, nor his team’s situation, but rather time
and workload. Over the past three seasons, nobody has carried the
ball more than Jones-Drew, who had last year’s league high
of 343 carries. With more or less the same cast of characters in
the Jaguars backfield, the plan will probably be for Jones-Drew
to continue on a similar pace this year. While getting lots of touches
is normally a great thing for fantasy purposes, breaking down midway
through the year because of it obviously does fantasy owners no
good. Predicting injuries is impossible, of course, but a smart
fantasy owner should be able to read the tea leaves and see that
a decline is inevitable for Jones-Drew, and this could very well
be the year it happens. With his current holdout having no end in
sight, a perfect storm may be brewing for the Jaguars top ball carrier
to be the bust of this year’s first round. Sure, he can defy
the odds and put up another monster year, but with the deck stacked
against him, why use perhaps your best draft pick on such a gamble?
3.
RB Marshawn Lynch, Seattle
ADP: 2.12
After a number of mediocre years, Lynch exploded in 2011 and ended
up a top 5 fantasy RB. As the Seahawks' workhorse back, his role
in 2012 should not really change much, and improved QB play may
actually help Lynch's situation. So why might he kill your draft,
you ask? First of all, a lot of his fantasy production last year
relied on touchdowns, as he scored a total of 13. In his five previous
years combined he scored just 24, meaning 2011 could very well have
been fluky, as touchdown production often is. Second, while Lynch
ranked in the top 10 in the league in rushing yards, his 4.2 ypc,
20-plus yard runs, and longest run of 47 yards put him outside the
top 25 backs in all three categories. Add these stats to the fact
that he is not a real threat in the passing game and you'll begin
to realize that Lynch is very limited in the kind of upside that
we fantasy managers crave. In addition, after getting the payday
he wanted, you might just add lack of motivation to the list of
reasons to avoid Lynch, especially since he is not known as the
league’s hardest worker to begin with. On top of all this,
Lynch once again got in trouble with the law this offseason and
may face a suspension of some kind or, at the very least, be walking
a very thin line with his team and the league. At his current ADP,
I would argue that he is way overvalued, and I personally would
not take him before the middle of the fourth round (a very unlikely
place for him to be available). Instead I would gladly take either
Steven Jackson or Fred Jackson, or even Doug Martin as far as RB’s
go. And with a deep WR class, I would certainly consider taking
Roddy White, Victor Cruz, Wes Welker, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, and
Brandon Marshall around the same area in which Lynch is being drafted.
4.
RB Darren Sproles, New Orleans
ADP: 3.05
Before last season, Sproles spent most of his career as an exciting
part-time RB, yet a fairly unattractive fantasy option. With over
1,300 total yards and nine touchdowns, however, 2011 marked a career
year and a kind of rebirth for the eight-year veteran. With a dynamic
offense around him, Sproles set career highs in rushing yards, rushing
average, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. After so much
success last year and with the same basic team in place for 2012,
why should we all not grab this guy right away in our drafts? Well,
in a standard scoring league, I want my RB, even if he is my RB2,
to be guaranteed a ton of touches, barring injury of course. And
while Sproles caught a ridiculous amount of balls for an RB (86),
he still only carried the ball 87 times, and that was without
Mark Ingram (the Saints' projected rushing attempts leader)
being on the field for more than a third of the season. Factor in
a healthier Ingram stealing a big chunk of those carries (plus the
ones Pierre
Thomas gets), and Sproles should see carry numbers more similar
to a typical third-down back (think 50-60). So if you draft Sproles,
you will be counting on him to catch at least four or five balls
every week just to match the output of a decent RB2. This is possible,
of course, but with his semi-historic 2011 numbers as the most targeted
RB bound to decline, you are really taking an unnecessary gamble
considering the other options available around the 3.05 spot. I’d
feel much more comfortable drafting Doug
Martin, Fred
Jackson, or even Shonn
Greene since all these guys should get way more guaranteed touches
than Sproles, with a bit higher touchdown potential as well. Better
yet, the middle of the third round is where perhaps the best value
at WR is this year, with guys like White, Cruz, Green, and Welker
all going at or after Sproles' ADP on average.
5.
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cincinnati
ADP: 5.01
As part of a crowded backfield on a pass-first team, “The Law Firm”
put up pretty respectable fantasy numbers considering the circumstances.
In 2012, BJGE has a chance to be the feature back on a more balanced
offense, so why in the world would a guy like that be considered
a draft killer? For starters, he is a very average talent. While
Green-Ellis is famous for not ever fumbling in his four-year career,
as a runner he lacks burst, quickness, and speed. In those four
years, he has not had a run of more than 33 yards, has barely averaged
4.0 yards per carry, and has a grand total of 26 catches (on a pass
happy team!). In addition, while his touchdown total the past two
years is certainly respectable (24), 75 percent of those came from
within the 5-yard line, and getting to that part of the field may
be much harder for the Bengals to do than the Patriots. With about
the same talent level as the Bengals' former starting RB (Cedric
Benson), Green-Ellis’s ceiling is about the same as Benson’s
2011 effort—outside the top 20 fantasy backs, as it was. At the
beginning of the fifth round I see much more interesting and dynamic
players available, including Tony
Romo, Peyton
Manning, Willis
McGahee, Roy
Helu, Percy
Harvin, Jeremy
Maclin, Antonio
Brown, Eric
Decker, and Aaron
Hernandez, just to name a few.
Andre Johnson's injury risk is a growing
concern.
6.
WR Andre Johnson, Houston
ADP: 2.10
Based purely on talent, Johnson would probably go in the first round
of many drafts. But as we all know, talent only gets you so far.
For a guy that is generally being taken as the third WR off the
board, Johnson has a fair amount of things going against him. First
and most worrisome is his increasing propensity for injury. After
missing just three games his first four years, Johnson has missed
19 games over the past five. That has to raise some questions about
how fast and well Johnson can heal at age 31, and if he will ever
truly be 100 percent again for any significant stretch of games.
Adding to these concerns is that Johnson has already tweaked his
bothersome hamstring in training camp this year, and even if it
is minor, it certainly raises some red flags about the long-term
prognosis of his health. Another issue to consider is the health
of his quarterback, Matt
Schaub, after last year’s Lisfranc injury. If Schaub cannot
regain his old form, Johnson and the entire offense may struggle
to put up big numbers under a much less experienced quarterback.
Even if Schaub does remain healthy and productive, it is clear that
the Texans are a running team first and foremost, as they were second
in the league in rushing attempts and yards. With two very capable
running backs (Foster and Tate) and a very respectable defense (second
in yards allowed), the Texans will do most of their damage by milking
the clock, running the ball, and playing lockdown defense, not by
airing it out 40 or more times a game. While Johnson still has great
upside, I believe he is being taken as high as he is because of
his name and some past performances, not on the likelihood of having
a monster 2012. Toward the end of the second round, I would certainly
rather take Roddy White, Greg Jennings, or Wes Welker, who all provide
similar upside but are in much better situations and have far fewer
injury concerns.
7.
WR Jordy Nelson, Green Bay
ADP: 4.02
As a starting receiver in one of the league’s most explosive passing
attacks, Jordy Nelson burst onto the fantasy scene last year with
an amazing 15 touchdowns, six of those going for 40 or more yards.
Now, obviously, if Nelson can duplicate these numbers, getting him
in the early fourth round is a steal. But as all experienced fantasy
vets realize, touchdowns are probably the hardest stat to predict
and are based a lot on opportunity and sometimes on luck. A few
things to keep in mind before taking Nelson as your WR1 (which is
how he’s being drafted in 12-team leagues): first, he did a lot
of his fantasy point damage in the final four games of the season,
when Greg
Jennings was out with injury; second, while his touchdown total
was amazing and his yardage was very respectable, his actual number
of catches (68) was tied for only 30th in the league and his targets
(96) had him tied for 50th. Add in a healthy Jennings for 16 games,
and probably an emerging breakout player in Randall
Cobb, and those already mediocre numbers could drop even lower.
With Jennings, Finley, Cobb, and Jones all fighting for balls, Nelson
may not even be a top 3 option on his own team half the time! In
no way am I saying Nelson will completely drop off the fantasy map,
but as a WR1 in 12-team leagues, there are certainly safer guys
with just as much, if not more, upside as Nelson, at an equal or
greater value. Percy
Harvin, Marques
Colston, Mike
Wallace, Dez
Bryant, Jeremy
Maclin, and Steve
Smith are all, on average, going after Nelson, but I believe
they will all outperform him this year. In the early fourth round
you can get a better WR than Nelson. And even by waiting another
round, you should at least be able to match Nelson’s output, but
with better draft value.
8.
WR Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay
ADP: 5.11
At 6’5’’, 230 pounds with above average speed, you would think V-Jax
would be a no-brainer as an elite fantasy WR. But for whatever reason,
he has yet to have a monster season. Jackson is being drafted as
a mid-range WR2 in 12-team leagues, but I believe this is due more
to name value and past performance than to likely future production.
To me, he is more of a mid-range WR3 this year, meaning he is going
at least a couple of rounds too early. There is no doubt Jackson
is talented, but there are a number of reasons to believe his numbers
will dip considerably after just barely finishing as a top ten WR
last year. First and foremost, the quarterback change Jackson will
experience is drastic. Besides the fact that he will have to find
chemistry with a new passer after seven years with the same QB,
the drop-off in talent and skill from Rivers to Freeman is significant.
Second, in San Diego Jackson had one of the all-time great tight
ends, Antonio
Gates, in the middle of the field to take the pressure and double
teams off of him. In Tampa, Jackson should see plenty of double
teams, as there is no other real legitimate receiving threat, especially
with the departure of Kellen
Winslow to Seattle. Finally, the whole offensive scheme in Tampa
will be much more conservative and run-based compared to the more
pass-heavy style in San Diego. There is no doubt that Jackson will
have some games that will make him a valuable fantasy contributor,
but for where he is being drafted, he will not provide a good return
on investment that successful fantasy owners should be looking to
get. In the late fifth round I much prefer guys like Steve
Johnson, Dwayne
Bowe, Eric
Decker, and Torrey
Smith at the WR position.
9.
TE Rob Gronkowski, New England
ADP: 2.08
I would love to have Gronk on my team, not just because I think
he will be a top 3 tight end again this year, but also just so I
can scream “You got Gronk’d!” to all of my league-mates every time
he does something good. The reality, however, is that he will probably
not be on any of my teams simply because he is being over-valued
as a mid-second-round pick this year. I’m not going to sit here
and say Gronk will not put up great numbers this year, because he
probably will, but he certainly will not come close to matching
last year’s historic numbers, and that is about the price many people
are paying when they draft him as high as he is going. First of
all, defenses have had all offseason and plenty of game tape to
scheme ways of slowing down the Gronk. In the NFL, even the most
physically gifted players can be stopped or at least slowed down
by defenses making adjustments, and you can bet Gronk will be looked
at as THE GUY to focus defensive attention on this year. Second,
Brandon
Lloyd was signed this offseason and with Josh McDaniels back
as the offensive coordinator, you can bet that Lloyd will be targeted
a ton downfield, probably the most by any Patriots WR since Randy
Moss when he had his record-breaking year back in 2007. Add
this to the fact that Wes
Welker will still get his 150-plus targets and Aaron
Hernandez should see an uptick in production, and you begin
to realize that the opportunities for Gronk will not be as plentiful
as last season. I’ll say it again, Gronk will be a great tight end
again this year, but considering the lack of elite RBs in this year’s
draft and the abundance of TEs in the next tier down, the value
of taking Gronk in the second round just does not add up. In the
mid-second round, I would much rather take guys like Jamaal
Charles, Steven
Jackson, Fred
Jackson, Doug
Martin, Matt Stafford, Julio
Jones, Greg
Jennings, etc. Lock up your starting RBs, WRs, and QB before
you take a TE, and you should still be able to get a guy that puts
up respectable numbers at the position. By taking Gronk early, you
will really be counting on some great players at other positions
falling past where they should go, and that is a very risky gamble.
10.
DEF San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 8.07
Are we really talking about a defense potentially ruining your draft?
In many years this probably would not be an issue, but this year
the 49ers defense is being taken way too early—and before a ton
of players that could actually lead you to fantasy glory. While
I do agree that San Francisco should have one of the best, if not
the very best, fantasy defenses this year, taking them in the mid-eighth
round is borderline criminal. This is especially true seeing that
most of the other top defenses are being taken a full two to four
rounds after the 49ers and may very well put up similar or better
fantasy numbers. Even if you disregard the fact that personnel,
injuries, schedule, coaching, and luck changes every single year
with defenses, the fact remains that the fantasy points even the
very best defense averages each week is usually less than 2 points
per game more than the next four or five defenses. By taking a defense
two to four rounds before anyone else, you are literally passing
up on 20 to 40 positional players that could be critical in the
success of your season and provide much more than a 2-point-per-game
advantage that you are counting on getting with the best defense
(which is a big gamble to presume in itself). In the mid-eighth
round here is just a very short list of guys that I would much prefer
having on my team over the 49ers defense: Ben
Roethlisberger, Jay
Cutler, RG3, DeAngelo
Williams, Kevin
Smith, Toby
Gerhart, David
Wilson, Ryan
Williams, Darrius
Heyward-Bey, Santonio
Holmes, Pierre
Garcon, Fred
Davis, Tony
Gonzalez, and Brandon
Pettigrew. Some fantasy dos and don'ts are in place for a reason,
and one of the oldest is "don't draft a defense until the last couple
of rounds." If you do, the value of the players that you will miss
out on usually outweighs the value of the defense you reached for.
Suggestions, comments? E-mail
me.
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