The following 10 players, I believe, are going way too early in most drafts, strictly based on ADP. They have the ability to ruin your draft, if you choose to select them in their current general spots. This is not a “do not draft these players” examination, as I actually like at least half the guys listed here. These are players should be avoided at their current ADP, however, and should only be selected at a bargain price.

Note: ADP based on a 12-team standard scoring league.

Manning is a stud but quality quarterbacks will be available to you in the middle rounds of your draft.

QB Peyton Manning, DEN
(ADP: 1.10, QB1)

If he stays healthy Peyton Manning will have another very good year in 2014. He will most likely be a top-five fantasy quarterback and possibly even win a few games singlehandedly. Yes, Manning will come through in many ways this season, but one way he will not is the ridiculously high draft pick you will need to use to get him. As almost always the first quarterback taken, and normally as a first-round pick, Manning is the opposite of a value pick for many reasons, but here are the main ones:

Change in personnel: While many people believe Manning made Eric Decker, the truth is that Decker is a very solid, smart player that played his role almost perfectly within the system. With Decker statistically being Manning’s most productive target last season, there is no way we can say Manning should be even near as good as was last year without Decker in the mix.

Schedule: Manning and the Broncos may play in a relatively weak division but they play four games this year against arguably the toughest division in football, at least certainly in terms of defense.

Broncos defense: The Denver defense should be much improved this year with new acquisitions and key players returning to health. If the defense plays near its potential then there should not be near as many shootouts as there was last season, meaning the ball gets taken out of Manning’s hands and into a running back’s.

Quarterback depth: There are 10 or 11 quarterbacks this year that excite me and another one or two that I could live with and be happy as my starter. In other words, you can basically wait until the middle roudns of your draft and still get a very quality guy. Sure, maybe they will be outscored by Manning, but most likely be way better value, and overall your team will really miss losing out on an elite running back or wide receiver that you could have taken with that first-round pick.

Overall, Manning is a safe, stud player but he plays a position that is not at a premium in fantasy leagues, and therefore should be bypassed in the first couple of rounds. Grab a top-end running back or wide receiver in addition to a near elite quarterback a few rounds later and your team will be much better overall.

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB
(ADP: 2.08, QB3)

I could have easily put Drew Brees in this spot, as he is going just one pick later, and both players are simply terrible values this year. I would like both guys to have great seasons in 2014, and either could end up the best fantasy quarterback. There are seven other guys who could easily end up as good or better than Rodgers and Brees, however. Only two years ago, the Packers and Saints were extremely pass-heavy, with running backs as an afterthought, or in the Saints case, used more like an additional receiver. This type of game plan made Rodgers and Brees hot commodities in fantasy football as their volume of work lent itself to big numbers. Both teams have begun to put more emphasis on the run and even more importantly, a lot of other teams with good quarterbacks have become more pass-happy, raising their values closer to that of Brees and Rodgers. Matthew Stafford himself could easily outperform both Brees and Rodgers, and you can get him in the fourth round without sacrificing the pick of a stud receiver or running back in Round 2. Seven other quarterbacks who could approach, equal or pass Rodgers and Brees this year yet none of them are being taken before the fourth round and most are taken after the fifth. Missing out on Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffery and Julius Thomas might make you sick, as they are some of the safer guys in the league who also have extremely high upsides. My personal strategy this year is to wait until at least the sixth round to draft a quarterback.

RB Arian Foster, HOU
(ADP: 2.08, RB11)

Arian Foster is getting dangerously close to my “Do Not Draft” list. If injury history, workload concerns, surgery and age weren’t enough of a concern, then you add in missed practice time already this year and retirement talk, and you have the makings of a real headache. For me, the first few rounds of the draft have to be guys that can not only carry my team on a given week, but also have a reasonable chance of being available to do it all year long. At fantasy’s most erratic, yet valuable position, I want someone who I am not going to have to worry about every week, especially when I am spending one of my first two picks on him. This is why I am avoiding Foster, especially in the first two or three rounds:

Health: Far and away the first reason, Foster has a growing injury history. In the offseason, Foster underwent back surgery. He remains to carry a consistently heavy workload and has been dinged up already in training camp. He is a bit passed his prime in age and will be getting a ton of work early and often – if healthy. You might as well plan on not having Foster around for fantasy playoff time.

Retirement talk: I know this is a small thing, but I find it difficult to trust someone who could have one foot out the door already and might get even more frustrated if forced to miss time again. Foster comes across to me as a guy who cares a lot about things other than football. This is great in terms of Foster’s life experience, not so great if you own him in fantasy football.

Quarterback woes: The Texans offense, in theory, will be in large part all about Foster. While I realize that volume can lead to success in fantasy, it also means defenses are going to key in on Foster and make Ryan Fitzpatrick beat them. This could lead to a ton of eight man fronts and a lot of hits on Foster.

While Foster has the skills and opportunity to be a fantasy star, there are just too many things that make a second-round investment too high. I would much rather take guys like Giovani Bernard, Jordy Nelson, Alshon Jeffery and Doug Martin, all of which are currently being drafted after Foster.

RB Alfred Morris, WAS
(ADP: 2.10, RB12)

In most standard scoring leagues Alfred Morris finished right around 14th for running backs last year. With a new coaching staff that seems to be pass-heavy and prefers backs that can catch the ball (which Morris does not do well), why is Morris being drafted (on average) as the 12th running back this year? I understand that Morris will still get a good amount of goal-line touches and play a good amount on first and second down on a team with some solid receivers who should take the pressure off the line of scrimmage. BenJarvus Green-Ellis also fit that exact description last season. I do not expect Morris to fall quite that low this season, but let’s be honest about one thing here right away: Morris is not really a special talent. He has excellent vision and is a smart, tough player, but he was also just a sixth-round draft pick with below-average measurables. In other words, it is still possible that he just came along at the right time and fit into a system that will now, gradually start to be phased out. Morris is a guy with a relatively high floor but also a low ceiling and not a lot of real upside on a team that could be redefining his role. That kind of player is a guy I wouldn't mind having as a flex player or solid backup, but Morris is being drafted as a high-end second running back and in some cases, even a first. That is not a risk I do not want to take. I’d much prefer taking a stud running back in round one and then a top-end wide receiver instead of Morris in that late second-round area with Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffery and Randall Cobb. If getting another RB in that range is imperative to you go with a guy like Andre Ellington or even C.J. Spiller, as guys whose ceiling can take you to the promise land.

RB Reggie Bush, DET
(ADP: 3.09, RB16)

In both mock and real live drafts that I have done so far Reggie Bush continues to be one of those guys that I always think “I’m so glad somebody else picked him,” especially in the first few rounds. While a nearly perfect storm hit last year with Bush staying relatively healthy, missing just two games and reaching 1,000 yards rushing and 500 receiving, it could easily go down as his career year when we look back in a few years. With a new coordinator, new weapons for Matthew Stafford to throw to and some legitimate competition in the backfield, Bush’s ceiling has lowered. His floor is still where as it always has been, as a semi-injury prone back who is more of a playmaker and third-down back-type than a true consistent force as a ball-carrier. While I could possibly justify Bush being a PPR league asset, I actually see his backfield mate Joique Bell, as being the more valuable of the two in a standard league, even though Bell is going two rounds later. Bush is a classic case of a guy being drafted based on last year’s performance rather than taking his whole past history and current situation into account. The third and fourth rounds this year are goldmines for quality players at receiver and running back and I would hate to waste my pick on a guy who we have most likely already seen his best, and that best was still not a top-ten running back finish. If you look at the current ADP’s for players in the third and fourth rounds there is almost no player I would take Bush over, and there are in fact guys in the fifth and sixth rounds who I think will outperform Bush quite easily this season. I’m not saying Bush is a bad player or washed up or anything, but he has too many strikes against him in my book.

RB Darren Sproles, PHI
(ADP: 7.10, RB35)

While I understand that a guy taken in the late seventh round is probably not going to totally ruin your draft, as I said in the opener, every pick counts. When you can minimize the players that are not going to help you, regardless of round, you need to do so. In a PPR league, Darren Sproles is still a low-end flex option this season. Surprisingly – to me at least –, Sproles is being drafted in standard scoring leagues as a top-35 running back. The problem here, besides the horrible value, is that unless LeSean McCoy gets hurt, there is no way Sproles can start for you in a standard scoring league. Ever. Now, I know people are saying, “I’m drafting Sproles as a handcuff, not as a starter.” To this, I have a simple counter-argument. The late seventh round is still too early for a handcuff unless it is a clear-cut role with high-volume opportunity. In this case, even if McCoy went down, I believe Sproles’ role would only increase slightly as part of a committee filling the void left by the Eagles offensive centerpiece. In standard scoring leagues, Sproles does not offer enough value to be taken in the middle rounds as a flex play. You’re better off taking a chance on an actual starter or a guy with a clearer path to playing time like Golden Tate, Bernard Pierce, Kendall Wright, Eric Decker or Carlos Hyde. All of them are being drafted after Sproles and could be in your starting lineup as a flex option, and/or offer higher upside if injury opportunity presents itself.

WR Wes Welker, DEN
(ADP: 4.07, WR17)

The first half of last season Wes Welker was an absolute beast, scoring nine touchdowns and racking up 45 catches. After the bye week in Week 9, the magic seemed to run out and Welker scored just one more time then missed the last three regular season games due to a concussion. Now, as a 33 year old, Welker will not only be fighting for targets with Demaryius Thomas, an improving Julius Thomas and newcomers Emmanuel Sanders and Cody Latimer, but he will also be on thin ice if he gets another concussion, after his two from last season. Welker’s touchdowns during the first half of last year were a bit of a fluke, as he had never had more than nine in an entire season previous to last year. Without as many touchdowns, Welker was fairly ordinary in standard leagues. With the addition of Sanders, who can play the slot, Welker could lose a bunch of volume, which is where most of his value lies. While I still like Welker in PPR leagues as a sort of safety valve player who will get you solid points every single week, I just do not see him as a top 20 wide receiver in standard leagues. With little red zone ability, more competition for targets, a quickly increasing injury history and an aging body, Welker is kept around for his leadership, experience and smarts. This type of player is fine for having as a flex or maybe third receiver, but Welker is being drafted as a high-end second receiver and that to me is a waste of a pick. In the fourth round I’d much rather have Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Cordarrelle Patterson or Michael Floyd, who all have much higher ceilings and with floors that are similar to Welker’s.

WR Percy Harvin, SEA
(ADP: 5.05, WR23)

For one of the most physically talented and explosive players in the entire league, Percy Harvin would initially seem like a bargain as an early fifth-round pick. With a closer analysis, however, you should pass on him anywhere near his current ADP. For starters, Harvin scored one point during last year’s entire fantasy season after playing in just one game. Despite his relatively short career, Harvin’s injury history reads like an anatomy book: He has struggled with his hamstring, hip, shoulder, ankle, ribs, finger and leg, on top of a concussion. Add this to the fact that Harvin is a player who goes over the middle a lot and returns kicks for a living. You begin to realize the tables are set for him to be physically beat up every week he gets on the field, making Harvin one of the bigger injury risks in the league. That alone, however, is not the only thing holding him back. Seattle’s run-heavy offense, combined with a defense that allows for a conservative offensive approach, equals a lot less volume of passes being thrown, and thus, much fewer for Harvin to catch. Sure, Harvin can take it to the house on any play, but he is just as likely to put up a four-catch, 39-yard day than he is a two-catch 100-yard day, if he gets on the field at all. I like Harvin’s ceiling but he is a guy that fits the perfect mold of a flex player or low-end boom-or-bust WR3, not a WR2, as he is being drafted. In his ADP range there are several players with nearly as much upside but much safer. These would include Michael Floyd, Jordan Cameron and Torrey Smith to name a few, all of which have a later ADP than Harvin. Don’t be fooled by his Super Bowl performance; Harvin cannot be trusted as a consistent weekly source of solid fantasy points and therefore is a waste at his current ADP.

WR Sammy Watkins, BUF
(ADP: 7.05, WR33)

A year from now we could be talking about Sammy Watkins as a major breakout candidate but he is unfortunately on the cusp of being drafted as one this year, as generally the 31st wide receiver off the board. Watkins’ talent is undeniable as he is a unique combination of speed, burst, solid build and route-running ability. There is no doubt he will make some highlight reels this season and probably have a couple blow-up games in the process. The issue with Watkins this year is two-fold. First and foremost, he is on a run-heavy team with some semi-major issues at quarterback. Second, he is a rookie at a position that generally takes a year or two to contribute at a high level. With a very solid stable of running backs and a shaky second-year quarterback to protect, the Bills are going to run the ball and run it some more. Watkins is not a legitimate red-zone threat so he is going to have to do most of his damage with either a high volume of targets or an extra amount of big plays. Because of the Bills conservative offense, the likelihood of Watkins getting a ton of targets is low and while he can certainly make big plays, the consistency of these occurring is going to be relatively low. This makes Watkins a boom-or-bust type of player, which should put him in the WR4 range rather than the WR3 range that he is being drafted in. There are much safer and/or higher upside options to choose from including Robert Griffin III, Jordan Reed, Cam Newton, Kendall Wright, Rueben Randle and Eric Decker.

TE Vernon Davis, SF
(ADP: 5.08, TE4)

Vernon Davis is a solid fantasy tight end. Last season he finished second among tight ends in most standard scoring leagues thanks in large part to 13 touchdowns, the most in his career in a single season. The reason why Davis could ruin your draft is simply a matter of value. There are three “elite” tight ends this year: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski and Julius Thomas. Davis, on most people’s lists is the fourth-rated guy at the position, alhough many people including myself like Cameron better. This is what I like to call “draft panic.” When a specific position has a run on players at a certain – usually high – tier many people worry they will miss out on a good player at the position and therefore reach to get the next best player at that position. This is what I believe is happening with Davis. Of course if Davis were to put up the exact same numbers he did last season, it would not be much of a reach at all. The likelihood of this happening, however, is relatively low. First, we all know touchdowns can be fluky, as Davis’ stats themselves tell us: He had two touchdowns in 2008, then 13 in 2009. This happened again a few years later as he had five touchdowns in 2012 and then 13 in 2013. Without a lot of volume – Davis has just one season over 70 receptions – and without a ton of yards – Davis has averaged just over 700 the past three seasons – he becomes very touchdown-dependent, and that is a big gamble in fantasy football. Second, the 49ers are still a run-heavy team and this does not look like it will change anytime soon. Finally, with Michael Crabtree healthy, the addition of Steve Johnson and the presence of Anquan Boldin, Davis could find himself fourth in targets on a team that does not pass a whole lot. What it all boils down to is that Davis is fine to have on your roster but he is more of a seventh round or later pick, and more of a significant reach at where he is going. With guys like Torrey Smith, Tom Brady, Emmanuel Sanders and Marques Colston all going after him, the value is simply not there. If you want to get a solid tight end wait a few rounds and get a guy like Jordan Reed or Kyle Rudolph, you will not be disappointed.

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