Many dynasty owners make the mistake of waiting till after the NFL
draft to really work on their rosters, but true degenerates (like
myself) realize that the time between the Super Bowl and the NFL
Draft is a key time of year to bargain hunt for players that could
take your team to the next level.
Everyone would obviously love to acquire Justin
Jefferson and Patrick
Mahomes but these guys are going to be very expensive in just
about every league. The key to dynasty is finding the NEXT Jefferson
or Mahomes at a discounted price. Below are 5 (plus a few bonus
recommendations) players who I am personally targeting in the next
couple months who I believe have enormous upside and should be affordable
in most leagues.
Remember when “tank for Tua” was a thing? Seems like
forever ago. A major hip injury his last season in college and
two years in the NFL putting up mediocre numbers, dynasty owners
have gone mostly cold on this former 1st round pick.
As a prospect Tua was almost bulletproof, with pinpoint accuracy,
solid mobility, and great anticipation. As a pro Tua has been
dinged up enough to miss several games in his two years and was
benched in favor of veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick his rookie year.
While there is not a whole lot to say positive about Tua’s
first two seasons, it’s exactly why he is a screaming bargain
right now and one which I’d be willing to buy at current
market value.
First, there is little question Tua has the raw talent, as one
of the most highly touted QB prospects of the past decade. He
probably should have never played his rookie season due to injury,
and you can argue that Tua was basically a rookie this past year,
as he had the job to himself and should have been in much better
health. While he didn’t exactly light it up this past season,
he did show glimpses of the QB he was in college and led the Dolphins
to a 7- 5 record in his starts despite mediocre talent around
him.
The thing I like the most for Tua this coming year is a likely
change in philosophy, with Head Coach Brian Flores, a defensive
minded coach, being replaced by Mike McDaniel, an offensive minded
coach who served as the 49ers Offensive Coordinator last season.
McDaniel has a bit of Sean McVay to him, young, energetic, creative
and seems to play up his players strengths and hide some of their
weaknesses. McDaniel made Jimmy Garoppolo a top 20 fantasy QB
this past season and on paper Tua is twice the QB prospect that
Jimmy ever was. With a new system in place and the return of rookie
breakout Jaylen Waddle (and recently tagged Mike Gesicki), Tua
should be the healthiest he’s been in his pro career and
in the most fantasy friendly spot as well.
Currently being drafted after the top 15 QB’s in most dynasty
startups, I like him to outperform his ADP fairly easily and he
is one of my favorite targets to trade for, especially in 2 QB
and Superflex formats. While many Dynasty owners can be very fickle,
always looking for the next shiny thing, sometimes it’s
the old forgotten shiny thing that is the real treasure.
I’ll be the first to admit I was not that high on Carter
as a rookie, who had mediocre draft capital on a below average
team and didn’t profile as a workhorse-type back. While
Carter didn’t dominate his rookie year, he absolutely showed
me enough to be excited for the next few seasons.
There were several promising signs, starting with how the Jets
used him, giving him 15+ touches in half the games he played and
showed some prowess in the receiving game as well. As for production,
Carter was up and down but finished the season 2nd best in the
NFL in missed tackles forced per touch, a confirmation of his
97th percentile agility score. Carter also finished as a top 20
back in yards per reception and overall yards per touch, despite
being on an offense that ranked in the bottom five in almost every
offensive category imaginable.
With so many different needs across the team it would be shocking
if the team used any significant capital on another running back
and Tevin Coleman, who stole some touches from Carter last year,
is a free agent.
I expect some positive regression for the Jets offense, as they
were led by a rookie Head Coach, rookie Quarterback, and many
inexperienced players, including Carter himself. While Carter
had a handful of games with excellent fantasy production, he also
did not contribute much early and missed a few games due to injury
so he finished outside the top 20 fantasy backs. This has led
him to fly below some owners radars of just how good he actually
was.
In most dynasty startups, Carter is being drafted outside the
top 20 backs, especially when rookies are added, and most experts
rank him outside the top 20 dynasty backs as well. In my mind
he is safely inside the top 20 and I would be willing to give
at least a late first round rookie pick to acquire Carter in a
trade.
Renfrow is unique on this list because he had a big year in 2021
so you would think he would be a sell or hold, but the sentiment
I get around dynasty circles is that his trade value is not really
that high because most people either never thought much of him
before and/or they don’t think he can repeat or improve
upon his 2021 numbers anyway.
This opens the door for smart owners to swoop in and acquire a
guy who many people think they are smart for “selling high”
when in reality I think Renfrow is due for another excellent season.
After two mediocre years, Renfrow broke out in a big way in 2021,
amassing 103 receptions and 9 touchdowns. While a lot of the damage
he did was with Darren Waller out with injury, Renfrow and Carr
seemed to form a chemistry that should carry over into 2022. While
the touchdown number was probably a bit fluky, the efficiency
that the Carr/Renfrow combo operated with should carry over into
next season. Outside of Waller, who turns 30 in September, the
Raiders are struggling with talent at the receiver position, and
while they may bring in a free agent or tackle the position in
the draft, Renfrow looks to have a very defined role in the offense,
especially with Josh McDaniel taking over as Head Coach, as an
offensive mind who emphasizes the slot receiver position heavily.
With Russell Wilson going to Denver, the AFC West is going to
be absolutely loaded on offense and if anything I expect shootouts
galore. No offense to Raider nation, but there will be a lot of
garbage time in those six games and Renfrow is the perfect guy
to clean up. Given his current situation, I’d predict Renfrow
to be a lock to catch 100+ balls and even if the touchdowns come
down a bit, another top 24 WR season is well within his reach,
with perhaps even more in full PPR leagues. Currently being evaluated
at around a low-end WR3 range, let the Renfrow owners think they
are pulling a fast one on you as you offer market value trades,
while you get the last laugh headed into 2022.
Claypool enters his third season after impressing in his rookie
year yet taking a significant step back in year two. I put a lot
of the blame on the Steelers quarterback play, as Big Ben Roethlisberger
looked like toast, especially when targeting Claypool who often
runs deep, contested, outside routes.
As a prospect, Claypool checks most of the boxes as a big (6’4’’,
235) and fast (4.42 40) receiver who profiles as both a deep threat
and a redzone monster. This of course is potential fantasy gold
and Claypool showed glimpses of this as a rookie, catching 9 touchdowns
and averaging over 14 yards per reception, albeit with inconsistent
involvement, especially early on in the year.
In 2021 Claypool’s touchdowns dropped to just 2 even though
he ran a greater percentage of routes and played a significant
amount more snaps. While perhaps Claypool got more defensive attention
or simply took a slight step back himself, as I noted earlier,
a lot of the blame should be placed on QB play, and this is measured
by a significant decrease in target accuracy. In 2020, Claypool
was graded as the 27th best receiver in accurate passes thrown
his way. In 2021 this number dropped dramatically to 73rd. While
nobody is exactly sure who the starting QB will be in 2022, the
chances that he is an upgrade over Big Ben are pretty high.
With a legitimate possession receiver opposite him (Diontae Johnson),
an emerging young tight end (Pat Friermuth), and a stud RB in
the making (Najee Harris) toting the rock, I think Pittsburgh
is setup to have a very solid offense and Claypool should be a
major part of that going forward.
In startup drafts, Claypool has the ADP of a mid-range WR3 in
most leagues but I have him ranked more towards a low-end WR2
with upside for more. I would float offers for him soon before
the QB situation in Pittsburgh is settled and while the bad taste
of a disappointing 2021 season is still in Claypool’s owners'
mouth. I would not hesitate at all to give a late first or early
2nd round rookie pick for Claypool, as I think much brighter days
are ahead for this 23 year old.
Yet another 3rd year player on the list here, Kmet, unlike Claypool,
was quiet his rookie year but started to come on in his second
season, more than doubling his targets, receiving yards, and receptions.
A solid size/speed specimen, Kmet was taken in the early 2nd round
of the 2020 draft and plays more as a receiver than an inline
tight end, as shown by his 253 snaps in the slot in 2021, which
was top 5 for all tight ends.
What I like about Kmet, other than his basic profile, is the fact
that he showed drastic improvement in year two, now has chemistry
with an emerging QB, and is a major part of a passing attack suddenly
devoid of weapons, with Allen Robinson expected to depart.
With all this being said, Kmet caught ZERO touchdowns last season,
so he is still flying under the radar as someone who did not fully
break out. With touchdowns being somewhat fluky, especially for
an offense with a new QB trying, I expect Kmet to be much closer
to league average or better in this category. Given the age of
some of the top tier guys (Kittle, Waller, and Kelce) and the
inconsistency of the next tier, Kmet has a legitimate shot at
being a top 8 dynasty tight end, but with a much lower cost.
With a below average rookie tight end class coming in only adding
to scarcity of the position, Kmet could pay off in a big way for
those that act soon to acquire him.
