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2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Results

By Bill Anderson | 5/10/23 |

With the NFL draft come and gone it is time for rookie drafts to start in dynasty leagues. For dynasty owners this is one of the most fun times of the year and, much like the NFL draft, a time for great hope for your teams to hit the lottery with one (or more) of your picks.

This draft class is one of the most interesting of the past five or so years. Most draft classes have a rough consensus as to who the top 5-10 players are for fantasy. This class, from what I have seen, is all over the map leading to a high variation of player values. It is also a fairly weak class (especially in 1 QB leagues) compared to the past few years, so you really have to make each pick count.

Below is the draft I have recently taken part in (5/7/23) for my dynasty league which has been going strong for many years. It is a 2-round rookie draft in a 12-team traditional setting: (1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR 1 TE 1 FLEX). It is Half-PPR and 4 point passing touchdowns.

1.01 - RB Bijan Robinson (Atlanta Falcons)
1.02 - QB Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts)
1.03 - RB Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions)
1.04 - WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks)
1.05 - QB Bryce Young (Carolina Panthers)
1.06 - WR Quentin Johnston (Los Angeles Chargers)
1.07 - WR Jordan Addison (Minnesota Vikings)
1.08 - TE Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills)
1.09 - RB Zach Charbonnet (Seattle Seahawks)
1.10 - WR Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens)
1.11 - RB Kendre Miller (New Orleans Saints)
1.12 - RB Devon Achane (Miami Dolphins)

Bijan Robinson

Round 1 Analysis

Round 1 will likely look very differently if your league is 2QB or Superflex but nothing here jumps out to me as stunning. Bijan should be the 1.01 in every league but a case can be made for two to three different guys at 1.02. There is a drop-off after Addison, as perhaps the last “safe” player that should contribute right away in 2023. After Addison, player evaluations can go a million ways and teams may start drafting for need more than talent or value.

My Round 1 strategy would be to go all-in for pick No.1. If that is not realistic then I would shoot for a pick in the 2-7 range or just trade back or out of the first round entirely. The talent you are likely to get in the 8-12 range is not much different from the 13-20 range so if you can pick up extra picks in this or future drafts (or a player equivalent) then you do that all day long.

2.01 - TE Michael Mayer (Las Vegas Raiders)
2.02 - QB C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)
2.03 - WR Rashee Rice (Kansas City Chiefs)
2.04 - WR Jonathan Mingo (Carolina Panthers)
2.05 - RB Tank Bigsby (Jacksonville Jaguars)
2.06 - WR Jayden Reed (Green Bay Packers)
2.07 - RB Tyjae Spears (Tennessee Titans)
2.08 - TE Sam LaPorta (Detroit Lions)
2.09 - WR Marvin Mims (Denver Broncos)
2.10 - WR Josh Downs (Indianapolis Colts)
2.11 - RB Roschon Johnson (Chicago Bears)
2.12 - WR Jalin Hyatt (New York Giants)

Round 2 Analysis

Round 2, much like the very end of Round 1, is a cluster of guys with similar talent levels and values. If your team needs a QB then getting Stroud here is solid value, but otherwise I can see a case for any order in this round. In my personal rankings I have Downs, who went at 2.10, higher than Rice who went 7 picks earlier, so it is really a matter of personal preference. I actually undrafted players (Zach Evans for example) higher in my ranks than guys that got drafted in the middle of this round.

If your draft is held much later in the offseason, we may get some clarity on some of these players but for now it is really a total guess about the value in this range. My main strategy here is to trade back in the round if I pick early, or to trade out entirely for a pick in a future year or a player.

Final Thoughts

This is a very weak draft class. Other than Bijan I do not believe there is a single player that has elite upside and a safe floor. In a 2QB or Superflex league you will probably see 3 quarterbacks in the top 5 picks, and rightly so. While guys like Gibbs and JSN and Johnston are very interesting, they each come with risk and there is a good chance none of them break out for at least a year, so plan accordingly if you are a contending team.

Overall, my strategy is to go hard for Bijan if possible. I would trade multiple 1sts and a solid player for pick No.1 this year. If the owner with that pick will not budge, then I would let the draft hype and excitement build and trade out of this draft, or at least trade back. If you have a favorite (I like Johnston for example), then I can see sticking around for them, but overall, the value is just not there this year to be trading up for anyone other than the new Falcons starting running back.

Best of luck in your draft and the upcoming season!