With the NFL draft come and gone it is time for rookie drafts to
start in dynasty leagues. For dynasty owners this is one of the
most fun times of the year and, much like the NFL draft, a time
for great hope for your teams to hit the lottery with one (or more)
of your picks.
This draft class is one of the most interesting of the past five
or so years. Most draft classes have a rough consensus as to who
the top 5-10 players are for fantasy. This class, from what I
have seen, is all over the map leading to a high variation of
player values. It is also a fairly weak class (especially in 1
QB leagues) compared to the past few years, so you really have
to make each pick count.
Below is the draft I have recently taken part in (5/7/23) for
my dynasty league which has been going strong for many years.
It is a 2-round rookie draft in a 12-team traditional setting:
(1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR 1 TE 1 FLEX). It is Half-PPR and 4 point passing
touchdowns.
Round 1 will likely look very differently if your league is 2QB
or Superflex but nothing here jumps out to me as stunning. Bijan
should be the 1.01 in every league but a case can be made for
two to three different guys at 1.02. There is a drop-off after
Addison, as perhaps the last “safe” player that should contribute
right away in 2023. After Addison, player evaluations can go a
million ways and teams may start drafting for need more than talent
or value.
My Round 1 strategy would be to go all-in for pick No.1. If that
is not realistic then I would shoot for a pick in the 2-7 range
or just trade back or out of the first round entirely. The talent
you are likely to get in the 8-12 range is not much different
from the 13-20 range so if you can pick up extra picks in this
or future drafts (or a player equivalent) then you do that all
day long.
Round 2, much like the very end of Round 1, is a cluster of guys
with similar talent levels and values. If your team needs a QB
then getting Stroud here is solid value, but otherwise I can see
a case for any order in this round. In my personal rankings I
have Downs, who went at 2.10, higher than Rice who went 7 picks
earlier, so it is really a matter of personal preference. I actually
undrafted players (Zach
Evans for example) higher in my ranks than guys that got drafted
in the middle of this round.
If your draft is held much later in the offseason, we may get
some clarity on some of these players but for now it is really
a total guess about the value in this range. My main strategy
here is to trade back in the round if I pick early, or to trade
out entirely for a pick in a future year or a player.
Final Thoughts
This is a very weak draft class. Other than Bijan I do not believe
there is a single player that has elite upside and a safe floor.
In a 2QB or Superflex league you will probably see 3 quarterbacks
in the top 5 picks, and rightly so. While guys like Gibbs and
JSN and Johnston are very interesting, they each come with risk
and there is a good chance none of them break out for at least
a year, so plan accordingly if you are a contending team.
Overall, my strategy is to go hard for Bijan if possible. I would
trade multiple 1sts and a solid player for pick No.1 this year.
If the owner with that pick will not budge, then I would let the
draft hype and excitement build and trade out of this draft, or
at least trade back. If you have a favorite (I like Johnston for
example), then I can see sticking around for them, but overall,
the value is just not there this year to be trading up for anyone
other than the new Falcons starting running back.
Best of luck in your draft and the upcoming season!
