One of the fun aspects about being in a dynasty league is the annual
rookie draft. The ability to trade picks, add fresh blood to your
roster, and take a gamble on guys that could be your teams eventual
foundation is exciting as it is scary.
Last year’s rookie class showed that if you do your homework
and perhaps get a little lucky, just one or two solid picks could
turn your team around. There were multiple players who are now
considered every week starters on most dynasty rosters, including
WR Malik Nabers, QB Jayden Daniels, WR Brian Thomas Jr., WR Ladd McConkey and TE Brock Bowers just to name a few.
While I do not think this year’s draft class has the same
volume of fantasy stars, there will still be players who could
have superstar status and a few more that could turn into strong
contributors for a successful dynasty roster.
One of my longer run dynasty leagues just did our rookie drafts
on 5/4 so I wanted to share the results so you could use the information
as a barometer to see how players are currently being valued.
Our league is a 12 team Superflex with half-ppr scoring and 4
points for passing TD’s.
- Ward, is pushed up in this case because it is a Superflex league
and the lack of quality options at the position this year. If
he were in last year’s class I think he’d probably
be the 4th QB off the board, but supply and demand is inflating
his cost.
- Hunter will be a hot topic in drafts the next four months,
as his pros and cons are weighed. I could see him as high as 1.02
in rookie drafts and probably as low as 1.09, depending on your
risk appetite.
- After Jeanty and Hampton, I can see an argument for just about
any order of running backs and perhaps we will get a clearer picture
of roles as the summer goes on. For now, I like the relative value
of Johnson, as he seems to go late-first or early-second round
in rookie drafts, but has a chance to be the second-most productive
RB behind Jeanty.
- Depending on your format, the two top tight ends could go anywhere
from mid-first to mid-second. I prefer Loveland but I wonder if
both will be over-drafted after the Brock Bowers blow up rookie
campaign last season.
A lot of wide receivers go in this round and I can’t say
I have strong feelings for any of them. Most feel like players
that will max out as fantasy WR2-3's, if that, but I suppose 1-2
may surprise and outperform.
The other interesting thing in this round is the quarterbacks,
who may present decent value if you have the patience to wait
a year or more for them to get playing time. Milroe is the wild
card, as his range of outcomes is about as wide as they get. He
could legit be out of the league in a few years if he can’t
improve his short- to mid-range accuracy, or he could be a legitimate
top 3 fantasy QB thanks to his legs and deep throwing ability.
Polar opposite at the position is Tyler Shough, who is very old
for a rookie and likely has a low ceiling, although he may have
the 2nd best situation (outside of Ward) for any rookie QB in
the short term.
Earlier in the round, Dart is a fun choice thanks to his NFL Draft
capital and pairing with Malik Nabers, although he may sit the bench
most of this year, with veteran Russell Wilson likely to start most
of the season.
Last year I felt like there were some intriguing prospects deep
into the 3rd round of most rookie drafts (Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy Jr. for example) but this year, I find it hard to get too
excited about many picks past the late 2nd round.
Guys like Neal, James and Giddens all need big injuries to the
solidified starters in front of them to likely have any impact
in 2025.
Blue is in an interesting spot in Dallas but he doesn't profile
as a back that could handle more than 10 touches per game.
I really like Fannin’s profile but he will likely be behind
Njoku for at least a year and his QB situation is a mess.
Speaking of that mess, Sanders gets taken as the last pick and
I, as of writing this, am still not sure if that’s incredible
value or a total waste of a pick.
Overall, this round is one I’d be happy to trade out of
as none of these players give me a whole lot of confidence.
Final Thoughts
We were spoiled with the 2024 rookie class, with 10-plus players
making legitimate impacts in their rookie season. This year, we
can expect rookie output to come back down to Earth and perhaps
some dynasty owners will be very disappointed if they invested
heavily into this class.
My preference is to trade up into the first eight or so picks,
as that group has high upside and relatively high floors. If I’m
not able to accumulate picks in that range, I’m very happy
to trade out for future draft capital, or for a veteran player.
There are always a few owners in every league that get rookie
fever so if you can target them and maximize value on some of
your picks this year, I would feel confident making that move.
The other thing to consider is a lot of the rookies this season
are either developmental and/or stuck behind veterans in the short
term, so acquiring them cheaper in about 7-8 months from now may
be the best path if you really like their profiles but are concerned
with the lack of snaps they will likely get this Fall. A guy like
Ayomanor, for example, may take some time to break into the lineup
so his owner may be very inpatient come November, yet his long-term
prospects may actually be pretty good.
So overall, my strategy this year would be to trade up when possible
or prepare to be patient and wait for next year’s rookie
class, or at least to get these rookies at a cheaper price later
in the season. Hopefully this example of a recent draft can help
get you ahead of your league mates so you can target your players
and plan accordingly. Happy drafting!
