Once considered a bust by many analysts, 24-year-old Jared Goff
now leads one of the most potent offenses in the league into the
2019. Goff, however, may be facing more pressure than ever before
as Rams running back Todd Gurley continues to deal with chronic
knee problems. While there is some concern that the Rams offense
could take a step back overall if Gurley misses significant time
this season, it’s also true that Sean McVay would likely lean
more heavily on the passing game if his star running back is out.
This could actually lead to an uptick in pass attempts for Goff
this season, who already finished as the sixth-highest scorer at
the position in 2018.
Goff now has to be considered a locked in top-12 option for fantasy
purposes and a real contender to be a top-three option at the position
given the weapons he has at his disposal. It can often be difficult
to predict which one of these Rams receivers is set to command the
highest target share in a given week and the best way to hedge your
bet might just be to invest in Goff. Currently being selected barely
inside the top-12 in most platforms, Goff is being drafted essentially
at his floor with plenty of upside. There is something to be said
for simply streaming the position each week, but if you’re
someone who is looking for a consistently high-floor option at QB
with the potential for some boom weeks, Goff really is a great value
right now in fantasy drafts.
The one major concern with Goff is that he was not nearly as successful
without Gurley as he was with the all-pro running back. In weeks
15 and 16, as well as the NFC Championship and Super Bowl when
Gurley was either out or significantly limited, Goff struggled
to produce fantasy-relevant performances. He threw for just 235
yards per game with six total touchdowns, completing just 61 percent
of his passes with two interceptions. Worse yet, four of those
six touchdowns came in the Rams’ Week 16 victory over the
49ers and he was held to just two scores in the other three games
mentioned. While this is way too small of a sample size to give
us any definitive proof that Goff cannot produce without Gurley
on the field, it is a legitimate concern and one that we need
to be aware of if making the investment in Goff in fantasy football.
After finishing as the top-scoring fantasy running back in each
of the past two seasons, there is no question that Todd Gurley is
one of the absolute top fantasy players we’ve ever seen in
this sport. Unfortunately, all good things must eventually come
to an end and that may be on the verge of happening this season
for the 2017 NFL Offensive Player of the Year.
Gurley’s chronic knee issue led to the superstar back sitting
in weeks 15, 16 and 17 of the 2018 regular season. This, many believed,
was a plan by the Rams coaching staff to make sure that their tailback
would be ready to play in the playoffs. The Rams had a bye week
in the playoffs which meant that Gurley had a full month off prior
to Los Angeles’ divisional round playoff game against the
Cowboys when he ran the ball 16 times for 115 yards and a touchdown
against one of the league’s best defenses. Unfortunately that
game may have finally been the demise of Gurley’s surgically
repaired left knee, as the back would touch the ball just 16 times
for 47 total yards in the NFC Championship and Super Bowl while
taking a backseat to plodding veteran running back C.J. Anderson.
While Anderson is now in Detroit which could mean less confidence
in the rest of the backfield, we still have to be very concerned
that Gurley’s body just can no longer physically hold up to
the wear and tear of a full workload in the NFL. That concern has
pushed the once-considered top overall fantasy player down draft
boards, all the way to an ADP just outside the first round in most
leagues.
Reports out of Rams camp are that Gurley has not suffered “any
sort of setbacks” with his knee this offseason and we know
that he can be a dominant producer when on the field, so the upside
is certainly still there for him to produce high-end RB1 numbers
once again this season. The risk, however, is that Gurley’s
knee problems flare up once again and we’re left every week
wondering if he’s going to play a full snap share or be
limited to just a few series. That volatility, even more so than
the player simply being declared “out,” can derail
a fantasy team very quickly and that’s why Gurley is a risk
that fantasy owners have to be comfortable with if they’re
going to select him in drafts.
Rookie running back Darrell Henderson saw his fantasy draft position
skyrocket this offseason when he was selected by one of the league’s
best offenses. Henderson, who at Memphis produced one of the most
impressive seasons by a running back in college football history
this past year, was selected in the third round of the Draft and
many are viewing him as the eventual Todd Gurley replacement. In
an offense as potent as Los Angeles’, that could very well
make Henderson one of the breakout fantasy stars as early as this
season.
The traditional strategies of “handcuffing” may not
apply in Los Angeles, however, as we don’t know exactly what
the team plans on doing at the position if they do end up being
without Gurley for any sort of significant stretch this season.
We thought that Malcolm Brown or even John Kelly would be the Gurley
replacement in 2018 but it ended up being veteran C.J. Anderson
who didn’t even begin the season with the Rams.
Still, we saw what even an aging, slow, unathletic back like Anderson
could do when given an opportunity in this high-powered offense.
Anderson ripped off three straight 100-yard games on the Rams while
totaling 488 rushing yards and four touchdowns in the five games
he played. Given that Anderson was released by both the Panthers
and Raiders earlier in the 2018 season, it’s safe to say that
he was a shell of his former self, yet he was still productive in
this Rams offense once given the opportunity.
That’s the type of upside that a player like Darrell Henderson
would be stepping into if he were to be given the opportunity
to see the lion’s share of touches in this backfield. Even
without an injury to Gurley, there’s a very realistic possibility
that the Rams could simply opt to limit Gurley’s touches
this season, especially now that they have a young, athletic back
like Henderson on the roster. A roughly 60/40 backfield split
is not out of the question and would make Henderson a viable starter
in many fantasy leagues on a week-to-week basis, especially given
that he could see serious touches down the stretch in games where
the Rams are significantly ahead on the scoreboard.
Entering his fifth NFL season, Malcolm Brown signed a two-year,
$3.3 million contract with Los Angeles. The pressure was put on
the Rams, who had to match an offer extended to him by the Lions,
and they ended up forgoing potential draft pick compensation in
order to keep Brown on the roster. That is certainly a sign of confidence
in the veteran, but the Rams did add rookie Darrell Henderson in
the Draft, which gives him more competition than he’s ever
had as the backup to Gurley.
Many seem to be forgetting, though, that Brown was indeed the primary
backup for Gurley throughout both the 2017 and 2018 seasons. Brown
broke his collarbone in Week 13, however, and that kept him sidelined
during Gurley’s absence down the stretch this past season,
leading to the team signing C.J. Anderson off of the street. Anderson,
of course, produced monster numbers when given the opportunity and
it’s tough to not imagine that Brown would have at least come
close to replicating that type of production if he had been on the
field.
While the consensus seems to be that Henderson is now the primary
backup for Gurley given the team’s third-round investment
in him, that remains to be seen. It seems likely that both Henderson
and Brown would see snaps in the scenario that Gurley is out,
which could make them both frustrating to own, but there’s
also a possibility that Brown’s familiarity with the offense
gives him the inside edge to lead the backfield if Gurley is out.
Given Brown’s ADP, which is undrafted in most leagues, he’s
worth taking a look at in your final rounds.
It’s extremely rare that a single team has three startable
options at wide receiver, let alone three who are currently being
drafted in the top six rounds of fantasy drafts, but that’s
exactly what we’re seeing unfold in Los Angeles this offseason.
The highest-drafted of the bunch is currently Brandin Cooks, who
finished No.12 at the position in fantasy scoring this past season,
produced his third straight 1,000-yard season, all of which were
for different teams. Cooks’ 1,204 receiving yards were a career
high and his 80 receptions were his second-most ever. Now with a
full season under his belt in the Sean McVay offense, Cooks looks
to improve on those numbers and further cement himself as a WR1
for fantasy.
The major question seems to be whether or not the Rams can sustain
three viable weekly starters for fantasy and while that previously
seemed nearly impossible, the McVay offense seems to be bucking
that trend. Cooks caught at least three passes in all but two
games this past season and one of those was when he was taken
out of the game early due to a concussion in Week 5 against the
Seahawks.
WR Robert Woods
(2018 WR Rank – No.10, 11.2 FPts/G)
He was the lowest-drafted of the three heading into the 2018 season,
but Robert Woods finished the 2018 season as the highest-scoring
of the Rams’ wide receiver trio as he completed his first
full season as a WR1 for fantasy. Woods crushed his previous career
high of 781 receiving yards with a massive 1,219 yard season in
2018 while also setting career highs in receptions (86) and touchdowns
(6).
Woods caught at least four passes in all but two games, including
the playoffs, for the Rams, and was targeted 130 times - by far
the most of his career. Part of that was due to the team being without
Cooper Kupp for much of the season, but Woods had numerous 10-plus-target
weeks even before Kupp went down. While Cooks is certainly the receiver
with the most pedigree of the group, Woods has been the most consistent
of the bunch since McVay took over as head coach in Los Angeles.
Woods may see a slight downtick in targets this season but should
still be effective enough to produce solid weekly WR2 fantasy
numbers with low-end WR1 upside.
WR Cooper
Kupp
(2018 WR Rank – No.46, 11.9 FPts/G)
An injury-riddled 2018 season cost fantasy owners of Cooper Kupp
dearly as the receiver had been on a trajectory for a huge fantasy
season. Kupp originally sprained his ankle early in the season,
only to return and then tear his ACL in Week 10. Prior to the ACL
injury, however, Kupp was actually the Rams’ most effective
fantasy receiver, having caught six touchdowns in just eight games,
including the Week 6 game when he saw just one target before spraining
his ankle. That type of touchdown production was certainly in for
some regression even if he didn’t get hurt, but it does give
us insight into the reality that Kupp isn’t the typical “catch
a ton of passes with no touches” type of slot receiver, at
least within the context of the Rams’ offense.
Kupp’s upside, just like Woods and Cooks, is low-end WR1,
but his floor is also likely no lower than a low-end WR2, assuming
that he’s able to stay healthy. All reports seem to be that
Cupp is back and ready for the regular season, but he will likely
not see much preseason action to give us much to review on field,
but there’s little reason to be worried about the knee at
this point.
The Rams ran three receiver sets more than any team in the NFL
this past season, with that personnel grouping being on the field
for 77 percent of their total offensive plays. Typically this means
that Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are all on the
field for just about every snap, with other receivers very rarely
getting any sort of significant snaps. That changed this past year,
however, when Kupp missed 11 total games, including playoffs, with
a sprained ankle and then a torn ACL, leading the way for Josh Reynolds
to see a major uptick in playing time. Reynolds was prominently
utilized in the second half of the season, including seeing at least
four targets in all but one game after he became a regular starter
in Week 11.
Reynolds was clearly the third option in the passing game behind
Woods and Cooks, but he did produce 425 yards and three touchdowns
on 30 catches over the Rams’ final nine games, including the
playoffs. It’s also worth noting that he saw significant playing
time against the Packers in Week 8 when Kupp was out, which he turned
into a two-touchdown day.
There aren’t many “handcuff” wide receivers
in fantasy football, but Reynolds may very well be the most noteworthy
one in the league. He has a versatile skill set that would allow
him to step in and play should Cooks, Woods or Kupp miss time
this season and that makes him an interesting stash in deep leagues
as well as in dynasty formats.
The Rams primarily utilize an offensive set that includes three
wide receivers and one tight end on the field, but there’s
no question that the team is typically looking to get the ball to
their receivers - not their tight ends. The snap share numbers alone
don’t tell the story because there are times when their tight
ends are on the field for almost every play yet only once throughout
the 2018 season did a Rams tight end catch more than five passes
in a single game. That tight end, oddly enough, was actually Tyler
Higbee, who is typically considered the better run blocker between
him and Gerald Everett.
Everett, however, was the more productive fantasy tight end in 2018
as he caught 33 passes for 320 yards and three touchdowns in comparison
to Higbee’s 24 catches for 292 yards and two scores. At 6’3”
and 240 lbs, Everett lacks the size to be a great run blocker which
does limit his snaps, particularly in the red zone. He did see his
snap share increase down the stretch and he even out-snapped Higbee
in three of the Rams’ final four regular season contests,
but he finished the season with less than half as many snaps as
Higbee.
There’s a case to be made that either player could be a
borderline fantasy starter if the other one were to go down with
an injury, but Everett and Higbee vulture one another’s
fantasy upside too much, which makes each of them non-starters
in most fantasy leagues.
