2022 was a magical season for the Philadelphia offense, led by
quarterback Jalen Hurts. They led the NFC in both total yards
and total points and the team really hasn’t changed much
this offseason, so there’s a good chance that they’re
among the top of the league in those categories once again. One
thing that did change, however, was that they lost offensive coordinator
Shane Steichen, who has now been replaced by Brian Johnson. Johnson
spent the past two years as the Quarterbacks coach for the Eagles,
so he should have an excellent rapport with Hurts and a strong
understanding of what has worked for this offense in the past.
Hurts enters 2023 playing alongside one of the best overall supporting
casts in the league, behind arguably the NFL’s best offensive
line and an explosive, dynamic group of skill position players.
His completion percentage was quite high this past season, at
66%. He surprised even some of his most vocal supporters, as well,
when he threw for over 3,700 yards - a feat which is impressive
for a quarterback who also has rushing ability.
Last season, Hurts averaged 8.0 yards per attempt, which means
he's able to make big plays downfield – a valuable attribute
for fantasy football. Another area where he excels is in touchdown
percentage. Last season, he threw 22 touchdown passes, which is
a 6.0% touchdown percentage. That's above average and indicates
that he's able to find the end zone with his throws.
His touchdown passes are really the main area where Hurts hasn’t
yet reached his ceiling. He threw just 22 touchdowns in 2022 and
that came after tossing just 16 in 2021. We’ve seen some
mobile quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson take big strides in passing
touchdowns in the past and that’s certainly a possibility
for Hurts, who should have plenty of opportunities in the red
zone this season.
Hurts has proven himself to be one of the few true difference-making
players at the position and that makes him a player who’s
absolutely worth reaching on in drafts. He’s currently being
selected around the 2nd/3rd round turn in normal redraft leagues,
but don’t hesitate to take him as an early-to-mid-first-round
pick in SuperFlex and 2QB formats.
Newly-acquired running back D'Andre Swift is one of the most
polarizing players in all of fantasy football. While he’s
certainly had moments of excellence, he’s also failed to
stay healthy and was unceremoniously dumped this offseason by
the Lions who invested a second round NFL Draft pick on him 2020.
While a move to the Eagles is certainly an upgrade from a personnel
standpoint, Swift’s high-level potential as a PPR running
back might be limited in an offense with a mobile quarterback
like Jalen Hurts. It’s quite rare for mobile quarterbacks
to utilize their running backs heavily in the passing game, so
there’s a real question right now as to whether or not the
Eagles’ offense is truly the right fit for a player like
Swift. He's a much better pass-catcher than Miles Sanders, who
left the team this offseason, which should mean that he sees more
opportunities than the minimal passing game usage that Sanders
got in 2022.
From a pure skills standpoint, it’s tough to deny Swift’s
talents. He's a dynamic, versatile player who excels as both a
rusher and a receiver. Last season, he had 521 rushing yards,
62 receptions, and 437 receiving yards. His ability to get out
in space and make plays makes him an exciting playmaker and an
intriguing fantasy option.
He'll likely start the season be the Eagles’ lead running
back, which is great news for fantasy managers. The Eagles’
offense has a strong likelihood of being explosive and he should
get plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points. He has the
upside to be a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 in PPR leagues, but
there are still some risks.
Swift has missed time with multiple injuries in his career, including
a shoulder injury last year. So there's always the risk that he
could miss time with another injury. But if he can stay healthy,
he could be one of the best fantasy running backs in PPR formats.
The other risk is the presence of Hurts, who is a dual-threat
quarterback who will run the ball a lot. This could limit Swift's
touchdown upside. But overall, there’s a strong case to
be made that Swift’s upside outweighs his risks, especially
given his ADP which is around pick 60.
Another new addition to the Philadelphia backfield is former
Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny. Unlike Swift who’s
more of a satellite back with more limited between-the-tackles
rushing ability, Penny’s skill set is more in line with
that of 2022 Eagles starter Miles Sanders, who rushed for 1,269
yards and 11 touchdowns this past season. Sanders was not utilized
much in the passing game, but was a good enough runner to justify
seeing 259 rushing attempts - far surpassing his previous career
high.
Penny is a high-risk, high-reward fantasy option. The high risk
comes from his history of injuries. The high reward comes from
his ability to generate explosive plays on the ground, as he’s
been one of the most efficient running backs in the league when
he’s been healthy. He could deliver some huge games for
fantasy owners, especially in games where the Eagles get out to
an early lead and end up relying heavily on their rushing attack
to close out games. Unfortunately, quarterback Jalen Hurts could
also steal a good number of goal-line carries from the Penny and
Swift backfield, but he did that quite often in 2022 and Miles
Sanders was still able to get into the end zone 11 times, so don’t
be too scared off by Hurts’ presence.
The big question is, can Penny stay healthy? He played just five
games in 2022 and he hasn’t played in more than 10 games
in a season since his rookie year back in 2018. It's a gamble
that fantasy owners will have to assess strongly, but if you're
willing to take the risk, he could be a great value pick given
that he’s being selected beyond pick 100 and outside RB3
range in most fantasy drafts.
While the Eagles’ new acquisitions at running back are
great for the offense as a whole, the player who was likely the
biggest loser for the Eagles this offseason is running back Kenneth
Gainwell. It looked for a moment as if Gainwell might potentially
get an opportunity to start this season when they moved on from
Miles Sanders, but that thought was quickly put to bed when the
team brought in both Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift.
Gainwell played a minimal role in the Eagles' offense in 2022,
carrying the ball just 53 times despite playing in every game.
He did lead all Eagles running backs with 29 carries and 23 receptions
but is unlikely to maintain a strong grasp on the pass-catching
role now that Swift has arrived.
Gainwell projects as more of an insurance policy rather than
a locked-in contributor, but he’s playing behind two backs
who both have a long history of injuries, so there’s a decent
chance that Gainwell ends up carving out a role at some point
during the season. He’s someone who should probably go undrafted
in most leagues, but keep an eye on him throughout the season
as he could end up being a very valuable waiver wire addition.
The Titans were seemingly unconvinced that A.J. Brown could be
a true alpha receiver in the NFL, but he put all doubts to rest
in 2022 when he lit up the fantasy scoreboard to the tune of 95
receptions for 1,496 yards and 11 touchdowns. Brown proved that
not only is he a big-play threat who can rack up yards, but he's
also a reliable red-zone target who can score touchdowns. His
new team, the Eagles, committed to getting him the ball, which
gave him both a high weekly floor and a high weekly ceiling -
a true dream scenario for fantasy managers.
The Eagles’ aggressive passing attack coupled with a strong
offensive line, a great play-caller in head coach Nick Sirianni,
and an MVP-caliber quarterback in Jalen Hurts provide an exceptional
situation for Brown and fantasy owners. His raw numbers are elite,
but what really sets Brown apart is his consistency. Going back
to his 2021 season with the Titans, Brown has now had at least
50 receiving yards in all but three games last season, and he
scored a touchdown in nearly half of his games. That type of consistency
is rare and makes him a very valuable fantasy asset.
Since coming to Philadelphia, Brown's fantasy value has increased
significantly. In fact, his ADP has risen from the middle of the
third round heading into 2022 all the way up to the early second
round heading into 2023. The Eagles made him the clear number
one wide receiver and they've designed the offense to feature
him heavily.
The only real concern about Brown is that he's dealt with some
minor injuries over the past couple of years, which have occasionally
impacted his fantasy production. While he's healthy now, it's
something to keep an eye on. Still, he’s a strong candidate
to finish as a mid-level fantasy WR1 again here in 2023.
Devonta Smith might have been replaced as the top target in Philadelphia,
but he proved that he can still be monster fantasy producer as
the “1B” in the high-powered Philadelphia offense.
Smith, like Brown, benefits from the Eagles' pass-heavy offense.
He's a great route runner and has excellent hands, which makes
him a valuable target for Jalen Hurts. However, one of his weaknesses
is that he's not a big-play threat like A.J. Brown. He doesn't
break a lot of long touchdowns or have many long receptions. His
yards per reception ranked just inside the top 50 among wide receivers
in 2022 and his aDOT was outside the top 60 at the position.
His fantasy value is solid, but he's more of a high-floor player
than a high-ceiling player. While that makes him a bit less exciting
as a fantasy option than Brown, he can still be valuable given
that he’s being selected alongside other players like Tee
Higgins, DK Metcalf, and Deebo Samuel who are not necessarily
the locked-in top targets in their own respective offenses. If
Smith falls to you at around his ADP or preferably a bit below
it, he's a solid pick, but don't take him too early. He'll get
you consistent points, but he's not likely to be someone who's
going to win you your league.
Even though he doesn't get as many targets as some other tight
ends, Dallas Goedert’s efficiency and red-zone usage give
him a high fantasy ceiling. He's also a safer option, since he's
involved in the offense in multiple ways - not just at the goal
line. But since the Eagles' offense is so prolific, he has plenty
of opportunities for touchdowns.
Goedert finished 2022 among the top tier of tight ends in average
yards per route run, finishing third at the position in that category.
Perhaps more impressive is that he finished as the No. 1 TE in
the league in yards per target. He lines up more often as a traditional
receiver than in the slot, and he's often targeted on intermediate
routes in the Philadelphia offense.
The main issue that prevented Goedert from truly breaking out
into the top tier of fantasy tight ends this past season was his
total targets. He was fine for fantasy purposes, but he finished
outside the top 10 at the position in targets, in large part because
the Eagles prioritized getting the ball to A.J. Brown and DeVonta
Smith.
He's being drafted as a low-end TE1 in most fantasy leagues,
but he has the potential to be a top-five tight end in terms of
production. An injury to either Brown or Smith could mean a significant
boost in target share for Goedert, so there’s some strong
asymmetrical upside in drafting him as late as he’s going.
If you're looking for a reliable, consistent option at tight end
without breaking the bank, Goedert is a great option.
