The Eagles started the 2023 season red hot, winning 10 of their
first 11 games, largely due to their offensive success, particularly
in the running game. Despite not throwing a touchdown pass in
three of his first five games, Jalen Hurts still managed to score
huge fantasy points, finishing third among quarterbacks with an
impressive 605 rushing yards. He also added a whopping 15 rushing
touchdowns—a number only exceeded by Miami running back
Raheem Mostert, who scored 18.
While Hurts' passing numbers were mediocre, with only 23 touchdowns,
15 interceptions, and 3,858 yards, the Eagles' offense remained
elite, making Hurts a valuable fantasy asset. The loss of center
Jason Kelce, credited for much of the success of the "tush
push" play, is significant. However, the Eagles' depth along
the offensive line should allow them to continue using this play
effectively, according to camp reports.
Hurts benefited from an abnormally high number of QB sneak situations
in 2023, but the Eagles often called other plays with the "tush
push" in mind for later in the possession. There's little
reason to believe they’ll abandon this strategy in 2024,
minimizing the risks typically associated with a less-than-spectacular
passer remaining a QB1 for fantasy.
The Eagles' offense still features A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith,
and Dallas Goedert. They also added one of the league’s most lethal
weapons at running back, Saquon Barkley, who is also effective
as a receiver out of the backfield. As long as Hurts remains healthy,
the Eagles should continue to be a highly effective offense.
Saquon Barkley found a new home in a much better offense, signing
with the Eagles this offseason after a challenging year with the
Giants. Despite missing three games, Barkley narrowly missed the
1,000-yard rushing mark in 2023, contributing nearly 90 total
yards per game and 10 total touchdowns in just 14 games. He achieved
these numbers despite playing in an offense that ranked 29th in
total yards and 30th in offensive points scored. The Giants' offensive
struggles were compounded by Daniel Jones' injury, which left
Barkley to carry the load in a subpar offense with truly horrendous
quarterback play.
Now with the Eagles, Barkley has the chance to thrive behind
one of the league’s best offensive lines, even after the
retirement of Jason Kelce. This elite unit should provide Barkley
with more opportunities to reach the second level, where he can
showcase his power and elusiveness.
The main concern for Barkley in Philadelphia is the team's reliance
on Jalen Hurts' rushing ability, both near the goal line and in
situations where other quarterbacks might check down to the running
back in the passing game. Barkley caught 91 passes as a rookie
with Eli Manning, but saw a significant drop in receiving opportunities
with Daniel Jones, failing to reach 60 receptions in any subsequent
season. Hurts' tendency to run instead of passing to running backs
has led to no Philadelphia back reaching even 40 receptions in
any of his three seasons as the primary quarterback.
While Barkley is expected to get more consistent playing time
than recent Philadelphia backs, the concerns about his receiving
ceiling being capped around 50 receptions are valid. The key question
is whether he’ll get enough usage in the running game, especially
near the goal line, to justify his late-first-round ADP.
With only Kenneth
Gainwell and Will
Shipley as viable backups, Barkley is poised for an elite-level
workhorse opportunity share in an offense that should remain excellent.
This makes him a very safe bet to be a solid weekly starter in
fantasy, with the potential to return to elite-level production
if he can capitalize on touchdown opportunities. If things break
his way, especially in the touchdown department, Barkley could
once again be one of the top running backs in fantasy football.
With nearly 3,000 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns on over 300
targets over his two seasons with the Eagles, A.J. Brown has elevated
himself to being a mid-to-late-first-round pick in fantasy drafts
this season. Brown has now gone over 1,000 receiving yards in
four of his five professional seasons, including 42 touchdown
receptions. Despite playing with some questionable quarterbacks
at times, Brown has established himself as a top-end wide receiver
who is extremely versatile and thus extremely safe for fantasy
here in 2024.
While Brown’s 2023 season was excellent, it's notable that
he only managed to score seven touchdowns on nearly 1,500 receiving
yards and 106 total catches. If he ends up positively regressing
back to a more normalized rate, or even an elevated rate as he’s
done multiple times before 2023, Brown could easily return truly
game-breaking fantasy numbers this season.
The Eagles have multiple quality passing game options, but Brown
is the clear alpha and Jalen Hurts’ favorite target. Don’t
expect that to change this season.
WR DeVonta
Smith
(2023 WR Rank – No.16, 14.4 FPts/G)
While firmly behind A.J. Brown in the Eagles’ offensive
pecking order, DeVonta Smith has established himself as one of,
if not the best, team WR2 in the business. He’s averaging
over 1,000 yards per season in his three professional seasons,
and while his 19 touchdowns are only an average number, he’s
proven himself to be a reliable fantasy WR2.
Pre-draft worries about Smith’s size leading to potential
injuries at the professional level seem to have been put to rest
as Smith has not missed a single game due to injury yet in his
career. In fact, he wouldn’t have any games missed at all
had the Eagles not rested many of their starters in Week 17 prior
to the playoffs.
The last time we saw Smith on the field was in the Eagles’
surprising blowout playoff loss to the Buccaneers when saw 12
targets, catching eight of them for 148 yards - a game in which
the Eagles were playing without Brown. While the Eagles rarely
fall behind on the scoreboard by that much, Smith’s stat
line showed that he is capable of producing not just WR2 numbers,
but potentially WR1 numbers in a hypothetical scenario where Brown
were to miss time.
This type of contingent upside is an interesting and perhaps
underappreciated benefit for those drafting Smith right now. Sure,
his ADP means that the Eagles will probably need to continue to
overperform in order for him to exceed his draft-day cost, but
he’s certainly capable of returning value as a mid-to-low-end
fantasy WR2.
Dallas Goedert has long been heralded as one of the more physically
talented tight ends in the league and while he’s always
been a viable fantasy starter, he’s also never really produced
difference-making results despite playing at the thinnest position
in fantasy football.
Goedert caught a career-high 59 passes in 2023, but managed to
turn them into just 592 yards and three touchdowns - the lowest
yards-per-reception mark of his six-year NFL career. Not only
that, but Goedert has now missed multiple games in four straight
seasons, thus adding risk to his already low-upside profile.
The difference between this season and previous seasons, however,
is that Goedert’s ADP is now hovering around low-end TE1
or high-end TE2 range, whereas he had previously been going as
a borderline top-five player at the position. Those who wait on
tight end won’t likely be excited to land Goedert, but he’s
a reliable player who should produce decent-enough numbers most
weeks as long as he stays on the field. Unfortunately, it seems
as though the Eagles just don’t prioritize getting him the
ball in the end zone often enough for him to have much upside
to become a true difference-maker at the position.
