I have fond memories of playing NCAA Football on my Playstation
in the late 90’s. It was a blast going through a season and seeing
what kind of silly stats you could put up with your Heisman winning
player. It’s taken the better part of two decades, but someone
finally came along and put even my best NCAA season to shame.
60-6 touchdown to interception ratio, 76% completion percentage,
over 5,600 yards passing; while they seem video game-like, these
are actual stats Burrow put up in likely the most impressive season
by any quarterback in NCAA history. Those are just the surface
numbers though. Dig deeper into things like accuracy under pressure
or out of the pocket, against the backdrop of playing in the best
conference in the country, and Burrow’s season is one for the
ages.
We know that numbers in college don’t always correlate to success
in the NFL. Having to learn an offense remotely with mostly informal
work with teammates isn’t going to help Burrow’s transition to
the NFL. While he possesses elite physical gifts, and maturity
and poise beyond his years, there are question marks about the
coaching that is tasked with his development at the next level.
Zac Taylor, he of the withering branches of the McVay coaching
tree, and offensive coordinator Brian Callahan didn’t exactly
inspire confidence in their two-win rookie season. The positive
is that both guys are very young, and thus are more likely to
be flexible with the scheme they put Burrow in.
With solid talent at the skill positions, an average offensive
line, and a bottom tier defense, Burrow should have plenty of
opportunity to compile stats in his rookie year. If his accuracy
and decision making can make the jump, and he continues to be
an efficient runner (368 yards and 5 touchdowns last season),
Burrow’s floor should be Daniel Jones from last year and it’s
not inconceivable he be an asset down the stretch, and a possible
QB1 by season’s end.
It was a tale of two halves for Mixon in 2019. In Weeks 1-8,
he limped to a 101-320-0 rushing line on a team that was 0-8 and
going nowhere fast. The line was horrendous, and with teammates
dropping like flies, Mixon quickly became the main threat on offense.
This all makes his Weeks 10-17 that much more impressive. Coming
out of the team’s Week 9 bye, the Bengals gave Mixon a season
high 32 touches, nearly doubling any single game total from earlier
in the year. He would go on to rack up a 177-817-5 line during
those final 8 games, finishing as one of the hottest fantasy players
in the league.
As he enters his 4th year in the NFL, we know what Mixon brings
to the table. He’s the rare three-down workhorse back that is
powerful, quick, and elusive. The offense around him is in line
for a massive upgrade, as 2019 1st round tackle Jonah Williams,
and veteran A.J. Green return healthy. With an improved offensive
line and a more threatening passing game, Mixon should have much
more space to operate. If this offense can gel, Mixon has a shot
to repeat his efficiency numbers of 2018 when he rushed for nearly
5 yards-per-carry and caught 43 passes. He finished as a top-10
fantasy running back in that season, and should be poised to do
it again.
Scooping up the scraps left when Mixon needs a breather, Bernard
is best viewed as an end of the draft handcuff. I’m baffled
by the Bengals' unwillingness to improve on the talent behind
Mixon, as Bernard provides a solid veteran presence, and nothing
more, and it’s been that way for several years now. 2019
6th round pick Trayveon Williams from Texas A&M didn’t
register a meaningful stat last season, but did rush for 1,700
yards and catch 27 passes during his senior season, so there is
clearly some talent there. At this point Bernard is such an underwhelming
handcuff that I would almost rather take a flier on Williams instead.
Bottom line... don’t give too much thought to this backfield
beyond Mixon.
Once one of the premier fantasy receivers in the NFL, injuries
have kept Green sidelined for the better part of the last two
seasons. Fully healthy, but now 32 and just recently signed after
being franchise tagged, Green likely enters his final season with
the Bengals.
I’m not really sure what to make of Green’s fantasy prospects this
season. He’s honestly one of the hardest players to evaluate in
all of my outlooks this year. While his talent and track record
are undeniable, he’s breaking in a rookie QB, and we haven’t seen
what his role looks like in this offense. How many 32 year-old receivers
return to form after missing their last 20 games? I do think that
professional pride and financial motivation will spur him along
this year, but physically can he hold up? With an increased emphasis
on slot routes and the development of Tyler Boyd, there is a chance
Green doesn’t even lead the team in targets. Maybe he makes sweet
music with Burrow and bounces back with a vintage season or maybe
his health fails again or the ragged offseason keeps this offense
from coming together before it’s too late. I really don’t know what
to expect. Unless he falls so low in the draft to make it a no-brainer,
I’m willing to let another owner make the tough call on Green as
he has as good of a chance to finish as the overall WR14 as he does
the WR40.
Proving that 2018’s 76-1028-7 line was no fluke, Boyd after
being thrust into the WR1 role after A.J. Green missed the entire
season, piled up the 7th most targets in the league (148) and
turned those chances into 90 receptions (8th in the NFL), 1,046
yards and 5 touchdowns. Keep in mind that Boyd put up these numbers
without a tangible threat in the passing game to siphon off attention,
and with Andy Dalton being benched for a few weeks. A terror from
the slot, Boyd seems to only benefit from the return of Green,
and the drafting of Burrow. As a focal point in this passing scheme,
Boyd has an outside shot to return WR2 value on an offense that
figures to be up-tempo. Currently the most reliable receiver on
the depth chart, I feel much better about the value the 5th-year
receiver will return.
Ross the 1st round disappointment is likely on his way out, while
his direct replacement, Higgins, was just added to the roster
in the 2020 draft’s 2nd round. A one trick pony, Ross is
nothing more than a low volume lid lifter who occasionally hits
a homerun. He shot out of the gates last season with 20 targets,
11 receptions 270 yards, and 2 touchdowns over the first two games.
Unable to get much going after his return from a broken clavicle,
Ross was once again failed to meet expectations. Injuries may
have derailed the young speedster so far in his career, but after
having his 5th year option denied, he’s going to need to
stay healthy and flash more consistent ability if he wants to
salvage his employment. The presence of Higgins and the depth
around him will prove to make that difficult.
Higgins, the first pick of the 2nd round this year was a boom
or bust deep threat for the Clemson Tigers his final two years.
Using his giant 6’4’’ frame to get down the field
and devour passes from Trevor Lawrence, Higgins figures to be in
a camp battle with Ross for a starting outside role in three receiver
sets. How quickly Higgins can adjust to the nuances of the NFL and
refine his route running will go a long way to determining how quickly
he can eat into Ross’ target share. These two players are
certainly more interesting to Bengal fans, as they are very unlikely
to see enough steady volume to warrant selection in any fantasy
format.
Unless you are in a league that starts only tight ends or something
insane like that, it’s best to just pretend this offense
doesn’t use one. After finally moving on from Tyler Eifert
in the offseason, the Bengals, unsurprisingly did absolutely nothing
to upgrade the position. Uzomah enters his 6th year with Cincinnati,
but this time finds himself as the undisputed starter. A solid
role player when called upon, Uzomah simply won’t have much
of a chance to shine in this scheme. The Zach Taylor offense runs
a heavy dose of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) and asks their
tight ends to block and be outlet receivers most of the time.
2019 2nd round pick Drew Sample figures to be the main blocking
tight end, so that leaves Uzomah to scavenge the leftovers from
the receivers, making his career best 2018 line of 43-439-3 his
likely ceiling.
