Mayfield, and frankly the entire Cleveland offense was the subject
of great debate this time last offseason. On paper the offense
should have been one of the most explosive, dynamic units in the
NFL, but in reality, they struggled to get out of their own way
most of the season. The passing game lacked any sync, the offense
line was a nightmare, and Mayfield took a step back in his development.
All the strife and dysfunction led to the gutting of the front
office, and the firing of Head Coach Freddie Kitchens and his
staff. With a new scheme, new administration and uncertain offseason,
what can we expect from Mayfield as he enters an important 3rd
season as a pro?
Cleveland invested heavily in the offensive line this offseason,
drafting Jedrick Wills from Alabama, and committing $42 million
dollars to tackle Jack Conklin. Throw in another $44 million for
tight end Austin Hooper, and you can see the Browns are serious
about upgrading the foundation around Mayfield. But will it be
enough to get him back on track? I guess it better be! His 22-21
touchdown to interception ratio was the worst among starting quarterbacks
last season, and was a problem nearly the entire year. Was it
the result of a brash young guy being overconfident, or trying
too hard? Maybe, but unless Mayfield can figure out a way to bring
his game under control, this entire offense is going to be inconsistent.
The funky offseason certainly won’t do this team any favors,
but I do think Stefanski has a chance to get Mayfield back on
track. Expect the former Vikings offensive coordinator to bring
a play-action based attack that will fit extremely well with Cleveland’s
personnel. The threat of Nick
Chubb and Kareem
Hunt must be respected, and combined with the offseason acquisitions,
should help lower the pressure Mayfield will be under. Stefanski
helped Kirk Cousins have three incredibly efficient seasons while
in Minnesota, and should be able to do the same for Mayfield.
I really like the former No.1 overall pick at his current QB2
price. He may get off to a slow start, but if he can get comfortable
with the offense, Mayfield has the talent and weapons to return
some great value.
While the passing game was mostly a dysfunctional mess, Chubb
and the running game were an unstoppable force. Second in the
NFL with 1,494 rushing yards, the former Georgia Bulldog kept
Cleveland in many games, using a combination of speed, power,
and vision to pile up seven 100-yard games. He absolutely destroyed
the Ravens in Week 4 with 165 yards and 3 scores, and his second
straight 5.0+ yards-per-carry average season means he gives the
offense a big play threat from the backfield. His 36-278 line
as a receiver also helped make him valuable in PPR leagues. But
despite his ability to be a decent receiver, the full-time presence
of Kareem Hunt is going to severely impact Chubb's role in the
passing game. In only half a season with the team, Hunt had more
receptions than Chubb did all year, and during the final three
games of the season, Hunt out-caught his backfield mate by a 15-4
margin.
Nick Chubb has proven to be one of the most efficient runners
in the NFL during his first two seasons, so it’s not a matter
of talent. The existence of Hunt makes Chubb a two-down back,
so short of a monster season, it will be extremely difficult for
Chubb to improve his numbers from last year. I do expect him to
be a focal part of this new offense as an early down workhorse
and he should be a reliable RB1 anchor for your fantasy team if
he finds the endzone at a similar clip.
After returning from an 8-game suspension, Hunt hit the ground
running, piling up 11 touches for 74 yards in his Cleveland debut.
That game would be a harbinger for things to come, as Hunt instantly
became the main receiving option out of the backfield. His 37
receptions over the final 8 games put him on a 74 reception pace
over a full season, so is that our starting point for his 2020
receiving outlook? That total might be a bit high, but I think
a 60 reception floor is realistic, as is a greater increase in
rushing attempts (he only had 43 last year). Chubb and Hunt complement
each other perfectly, as both guys are capable of playing on all
downs, and it keeps the opposing defenses guessing. The Browns
have spoken frequently about using Hunt more in base packages
this season, and Stefanski has proven the ability to use running
backs in multiple roles. Also keep in mind Hunt is playing for
a big free agent deal, so there is that added motivation.
Hunt is no normal “back-up” running back. He was an elite fantasy
performer during his time in Kansas City and is going to get enough
touches to be a high end FLEX/RB3 option and can be a league winner
if anything happens to Chubb. His ADP is too rich to be a simple
handcuff, and I suspect it will keep climbing as we approach the
season. The talent and motivation is there, so it’s just a question
of opportunity. Hunt is going to be a player I’m going to go after
aggressively. He’s going to get enough chances to at least be
usable in my lineup, and if he ever steps into the starting role,
he’s instantly a high end RB1 in all formats.
The last three seasons have not been kind to OBJ. After enjoying
“elite” status his first three seasons, injuries,
apathy, and dysfunction have dropped him from the ranks of the
mighty. His move to the midwest was largely a bust, as the volatile
receiver failed to establish much of a rapport with Mayfield.
He only caught 55% of his targets, by far the worst among players
who saw at least 130 targets. Previously a prolific scorer, Beckham
Jr. only scored four times in 16 games. In fact, the only real
positive that can be taken from 2019 is that he did play in a
full season for only the second time in his career.
2020 is a crucial season for Beckham in many ways. Losing in Cleveland
is not like losing in New York. It’s nearly impossible to stay
relevant in a small market when you aren’t winning or performing
at an All Pro level. Beckham Jr. is enjoying his first healthy
offseason in a long time and that is the key. If he regains his
early career form, he’s going to be a force. The Browns offense
is loaded (stop me if you’ve heard this before), but this time,
at the right spots. The improved line play and play action scheme
of Stefanski will pay off huge for Beckham. The addition of Austin
Hooper gives Cleveland a reliable mid-level threat so it’s going
to be impossible for defenses to dedicate too much attention to
Mr. Mercurial. Currently wavering in the WR1/2 category, I’m willing
to gamble on his talent and motivation. 2019 was a humbling experience,
but if Mayfield can get right and Beckham can stay healthy, a
top 10 finish is within the range of high end outcomes.
While many fantasy players salivated at the Mayfield-Beckham
Jr. pairing going into last year, it was Landry that became the
calm in the stormy waters that 2019 devolved into. While Mayfield
was forcing the ball into Beckham, Landry feasted on the decreased
attention. He outgained his good buddy in all of the important
receiving metrics, and even displayed big play ability, flashing
for a career high 14.1 yards-per-reception. By season’s
end Landry proved to be one of the best receiver values in fantasy
football.
Unfortunately I don’t anticipate a repeat in 2020. A quick look
at Landry’s numbers from last season show a huge drop in production
down the stretch as a hip injury took its toll. That same injury
lingered into the offseason causing Landry to go under the knife
in February. With a 6-8 month recovery timetable, it’s unlikely
that Landry will get in much work in the abbreviated training
camp. The Browns “hope” he will be ready for Week 1. Besides his
health concerns, there is the presence of Kareem Hunt and Austin
Hooper. Those guys figure to take on many of the routes Landry
runs from the slot so you are taking on a ton of risk if you draft
Landry as a WR2. With so many other mouths to feed and his health
to consider, I can’t see Landry coming close to 2019’s totals.
If he can do some work in camp maybe his outlook improves, but
today I couldn’t trust him as more than a mid-level WR3.
One of the best fantasy tight ends (especially in PPR) over the
last two seasons, Austin Hooper joined the Browns this offseason
with a record setting contract. Although flush with talent at
other skill positions, and ultra-athletic David Njoku already
on the roster, Hooper gives Cleveland a reliable option for Mayfield
and a calming professional presence for the team. An average blocker,
Hooper is still a big improvement over Njoku, and is any improvement
along that line is welcome. He’s found ways to compile two
straight 70+ reception seasons by being a heady, sure handed route
runner who identifies holes in the defense. He will be in Stefanski’s
tight end friendly scheme, and should make a killing on play action
waggle and drag routes as Mayfield is an accurate on-the-move
passer. With Landry almost assuredly to be eased into the season,
Hooper could be the No.2 passing option on the team for the first
quarter of the year. While reaching his 73 reception average over
the last two seasons is probably on the very high end range of
outcomes, Hooper is still going to be a big part of this offense,
and is worth a pick as a back-end TE1 option.
