Sure, the final fantasy numbers and rank for Mayfield’s last
two seasons are nearly identical, but by every metric, and the
famous “eye test”, Mayfield was an infinitely better player during
the 2020 season. Credit new head coach Kevin Stefanski with designing
an offense that played off Mayfield’s strengths (timing throws
out of the pocket, and play action), as the 3rd year pro cut his
interceptions by 60%, improved his completion percentage, and
overcame a shaky start to the year by leading his team to the
2nd round of the playoffs. So what does the gunslinger from Oklahoma
have for a follow-up in 2021?
For the first time in a long while there are true expectations
clinging to the Browns and Mayfield. After a near run to the AFC
title game last season, many expect this team to compete for a
shot at the Super Bowl. The return to health of OBJ and the resigning
of Kareem Hunt are the big “additions” to an offense that returns
largely intact. Mayfield found a comfort zone in this offense
last year and righted a career on the brink, but that’s the negative
in this fantasy equation. Despite the quality season by NFL standards,
we judge numbers here in the fantasy world, and by the important
ones, Mayfield was no better than 17th in the NFL in attempts,
completions, and yardage and 13th in touchdown passes.
Stefanski’s offense made great use of the play action, as
Mayfield was very effective on deep throws on run fakes. Therein
lies the problem. This is a run-first offense led by perhaps the
best tailback duo in the NFL. The mauling run game allows Cleveland
to control tempo, limit turnovers, and churn the clock late in
the game. While the return of OBJ will give the passing game juice
(if he stays humble in his role), I’m not sure it’s
enough to push Baker into the QB1 category. With such depth at
the position, and little to offer as a runner, I think Mayfield
tops out as a strong fantasy back-up.
Let me just start by saying that I think Nick Chubb is one of
the most underrated players in the NFL. Since entering into the
league in 2018, he’s averaged better than 5.0 yards per
carry in every season, and has yet to score less than 8 touchdowns.
Despite splitting snaps with Kareem Hunt, and missing four games
in 2020, Chubb churned out over 1200 total yards and tacked on
12 scores. His speed/power combination is one of the best in the
NFL behind only Derrick Henry, and he similarly dominates late
in games with Cleveland running out the clock, evidenced by his
7.2 yards -per-carry average in the 2nd half of games. His efficiency
and touchdown scoring allowed him to finish in the top 10 in standard
scoring leagues to with only 16 receptions.
So what’s holding him back from grinding up the NFL even
more than he has? Two words...Kareem Hunt. Chubb has the blessing
(more rest) and curse (reduced touches) of having an All-Pro for
a backfield mate. Chubb simply doesn’t play on 3rd downs
or clear passing situations, and his 18 targets last year put
him around 70th among running backs. A slight dip in running efficiency
would be a hit, but on the flip side, an injury to Hunt could
let Chubb dominate touches. Clearly Chubb’s value lies in
standard leagues as long as Hunt is around, but a full season
of health gives the former Georgia Bulldog a very good chance
at a top-5 season.
On another team Hunt would be an elite RB1, but as his time in
Cleveland has shown, there is still enough opportunity to produce
top flight numbers even with Nick Chubb around. Despite playing
1B to his teammate, Hunt tallied over 1,100 total yards and 11
total touchdowns and had double digit carries in 13 of 18 games.
But while the new system in Cleveland gives Hunt a ton of fantasy
value across multiple formats, there were a few troubling signs
that lead me to believe a repeat finish in the top-25 is going
to be very tricky.
First, the complete lack of explosive plays by Hunt is alarming.
While Chubb had 12 rushes of 20+ yards and three over 40 yards,
Hunt lagged way behind with only 3 rushes past 20 yards. That’s
below a half dozen quarterbacks, and 3rd fewest among players
with 150+ rushing attempts. The 2nd, and frankly bigger problem,
is that despite being the team’s clear passing down back,
Hunt had only 38 receptions, just 1 more than he had in his 8-game
debut season in Cleveland. This tells me a few things about this
Cleveland offense. First, they simply don’t scheme to throw
to the backs that often out of the backfield. Hunt had more receptions
on 1st down (12) than on 3rd down (11), which means that certainly
isn’t his defined role. Secondly, Hunt was arguably worse
when Chubb was out for a 4-game stretch in Weeks 5-8, when despite
being the workhorse, failed to reach 100 yards or find the endzone
on the ground. An ankle injury definitely slowed him at times
during the year, but it’s going to take an injury to Chubb
for Hunt to be more than a RB2 in 2021.
OBJ has had his fair share of ups and downs in his whirlwind 7-year
career. After dominating the NFL over his first three years, he’s
spent the next four battling injury, and chasing the HOF expectations
of his early career. It’s fine time that he, and fantasy owners
accept that fact there is a very good chance he’s already
had the best statistical seasons he’s ever going to have,
and instead focus on how he can best help Cleveland get deep into
the playoffs. Despite his all-world talent, this offense seemed
to settle into a groove after he was lost for the season in Week
7 with a torn ACL. Without the pressure of keeping him happy, Baker
Mayfield found a comfort zone within the offense, and I can’t
imagine Kevin Stefanski is going to go out of his way to change
much to accommodate his return. Instead, I look for the Browns to
deploy OBJ all over the field, in a variety of creative ways. Offseason
and minicamp reports surrounding his health have been glowing, so
if he has recovered his elite speed and quickness, he remains a
threat defenses must account for. With improved chemistry with Mayfield
his catch % numbers should also rise, but the simple fact is this
offense is built on a foundational running game and the volume to
sniff a return to elite WR1 status simply isn’t there. Short
of a flurry of touchdowns, Beckham Jr. is looking like at best,
an upside WR2.
If you are in the market for a decent WR3 who won’t kill
you, but probably also won’t stray too far from his expectations,
Jarvis Landry is your man. I know that sounds a little underwhelming,
but for a variety of reasons, that’s just how his career
has been. Take 2020 for example. Cleveland’s main passing
game weapon tears his ACL in Week 7. It takes Landry until Week
12 to register his first receiving touchdown and 100-yard game.
And while he was certainly solid from Week 12 on with 50+ yards
and/or a touchdown in every game, the fact remains that Landry
is a complimentary player on a run-first offense. He’ll
move the chains, complete a long pass off a gimmick play, and
score a few touchdowns, but the healthy return of OBJ caps his
upside at, you guessed it, WR3/4.
Last offseason Hooper signed with the Browns for $44 million,
including $23 million guaranteed and entered into Stefanski’s
tight-end friendly system. But while many reasonably expected
a push for a top-10 fantasy finish at the position, Hooper instead
became more of a blocker than receiver, watching his pass game
numbers take a nosedive from his time in Atlanta. Hopper was the
16th most frequently targeted tight end in the NFL, and finished
with the 22nd most receiving yards at the position. This is all
the more troubling as Cleveland was starving for playmakers in
the passing game after losing OBJ. Hooper is a fine all around
football player, and fits what Cleveland wants to do perfectly.
And there’s the rub. What Cleveland wants him to do, and
what you need from your fantasy tight end, are two wildly different
things. Baring a major shift in philosophy or David Njoku being
traded/hurt, there just won’t be enough volume or scoring
opportunity to make Hooper a fantasy option outside of fringe
leagues.
