To say Watson was rusty after his self-inflicted hiatus was an
understatement. In his first four starts in a Browns uniform Watson
posted a 2-3 touchdown-to-inception ratio, and labored to complete
more than half of his passes. Things perked up in the final two
games with five passing touchdowns, but the 2022 season was all
about getting his legs under him, and distancing himself from
the off the field noise.
Watson now enters his sixth year in the NFL with expanded expectations.
The addition of Elijah Moore in a trade from the Jets gives Watson
a potentially lethal slot man, rookie 3rd round receiver Cedric
Tillman provides a big body out wide, and the rest of skill position
players are veteran playmakers. This division is stacked, and
Cleveland should find themselves in more than a few shootouts.
With a distraction-free offseason to get better acquainted with
the playbook and speed of the game, Watson should be in line for
a massive bounceback season. Before derailing his career, Watson
was on an All-Pro trajectory, and will very likely return to provide
top-10 upside in 2023.
Since entering the NFL in 2018, Chubb has never finished worse
than 15th overall in non-ppr scoring, providing fantasy owners
with a rock solid RB1 over the last four years. As a near lock
for double digit touchdowns and almost 1500 total yards, Chubb
has a chance to be even better in 2023. With Kareem Hunt gone
in free agency and only late round picks sharing the running back
room, Chubb has a real chance to threaten his career high 329
touches from last season. With Watson more comfortable, the offense
should move at a much quicker pace, and red zone scoring should
increase after Chubb had the 9th most red zone carries in 2022.
Chubb is never going to catch a boat-load of passes, so his PPR
value is diminished, but there aren’t many backs in the
NFL that offer Chubb’s weekly consistency, and week-winning
upside.
With Kareem Hunt's 123 carries and 35 receptions up for grabs, Ford,
a 2022 5th round pick has a very real opportunity to be a fantasy
factor in 2023 as Chubb’s backup. After returning 30 kicks last
season, and touching the ball only eight times on offense, Ford
currently sits as No.2 on the depth chart for Cleveland. Ford brings
average NFL measurables and decent college production to the table
but would be in line for a huge workload if Chubb were to go down.
As long as the Browns don’t add a veteran back in camp, Ford is
a solid handcuff.
The Browns hit big with Cooper in free agency last season, as
the former Cowboy topped 1,100 yards and hit career highs with
132 targets and nine touchdowns. Even more impressive is that
Cooper put up a top-10 standard league finish with a career backup
(Brissett) and an extremely rusty (Watson) throwing him the ball.
While Cooper finished with impressive overall stats, his weekly
rollercoaster ride wasn’t ideal. He had five games under
5.0 pts, and was really propped up by five other games that accounted
for over 50% of his yardage and 7 of his 9 touchdowns. Cooper
also left too much meat on the bone, as he was 2nd in the NFL
among receivers with 11 drops. With Watson at the helm for a full
offseason, look for Cooper to be more consistent, but with more
flexibility in gameplan, he might struggle to reach those 132
targets again. As long as DeAndre Hopkins doesn’t join the
squad after his free agency tour is over, Cooper is going to lead
the team in receiving, and is an undervalued WR2 that has upside
for more.
DPJ was a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners last year setting
career highs across the board. Playing in all 17 games, the former
Michigan Wolverine provided the Browns with a solid, if unspectacular
option across from Cooper. In weeks 4-15 he proved to be a reliable
weekly contributor as a standard league low end WR3. Unfortunately,
I do think this is about where DPJ tops out in the NFL, and with
the addition of Moore, I can’t see much upside to rostering him
early in the season.
After flashing elite fantasy talent at the tail end of his rookie
year in 2021, 2022 was an absolute dud, finishing with an offseason
trade to Cleveland. A fresh start is exactly what Moore needs
after he complained his way out of New York. Miss-used, and saddled
with an unimaginative offense and dreadfully inaccurate quarterback,
Moore was waiver fodder by midseason last year. With Cleveland
likely to open up the offense to run more three-wide sets, and
Watson rounding back into form, Moore has a chance to be a big
part of this offense. Will it be enough to return fantasy value?
I’m not quite sure. While Moore possesses elite physical tools,
David Njoku saw 80 targets last season as a pseudo slot man, and
he isn’t going anywhere. Cleveland had a near 50/50 run pass ratio
last season and that needs to flip considerably to support multiple
viable fantasy receivers. Still, the Browns gave up serious draft
capital to acquire him and I’m willing to bet on his talent to
make him a late-round pick in my drafts.
Despite missing three games with a serious ankle injury, Njoku
had one of the best statistical seasons of his career in 2022,
and uses his athletic 6’4’’, 240-pound frame
like a receiver. Given a mysteriously monstrous contract after
producing little early in his career, Njoku gets a full season
of Watson in 2023, but I’m not sure that is enough to offset
the addition of Moore at receiver, and former Texan Jordan Akins
as a back-up tight end. Njoku doesn’t have a clear path
to more than the 80 targets he saw last season, so he once again
should slot into a low end TE1 slot in all leagues.
