Ekeler has quietly had a strong first season with the Commanders.
He’s filled in admirably for an injured Brian Robinson Jr. averaging
just over nine standard points per game. His 5.2 yards-per-carry
is his best since 2018, and the Commander offensive line continues
to boast an impressive win rate. Even with Robinson likely coming
back from a hamstring injury, Ekeler retains FLEX value at a minimum
in a game with an over/under of 48.5 pts.
The fact Nick Chubb can even run again is amazing, so it’s
no surprise that he’s gotten off to a slow start since his
return in Week 7. He’s struggled to pop any long runs, and
his current 2.7 yards-per-carry average is well below his career
marks. On a positive note, he’s wrested control of this
backfield from his lesser talented teammates, and the extra rest
from the bye week, and a date with the league’s 2nd worst
rush defense should help improve those numbers.
Estime saw a workhorse-like 82% of the carries in the Denver
backfield last week, taking his 14 carries for 53 yards. Sure,
those numbers don’t pop off the page, but considering that
was against the league’s best run defense, I can give him
a pass. What interests me is the chances he was given, and the
fresh legs he brings to a languishing backfield. With Nix making
the passing game respectable, Estime should continue to get chances
to take over this backfield against a middling Atlanta run defense.
Pollard has been beat up the last few weeks, and with the healthy
return of Tajae Spears, Pollard registered a season low 54% snap
percentage. He’s been a decent fantasy asset, but he certainly
can’t afford to be in a 50-50 timeshare. If this game gets
messy, Spears is likely to soak up more of the garbage time snaps
as well.
This Jaguar offense was already the most disappointing in the
NFL, but the loss of Trevor Lawrence has now tanked any value
that they might have had. Etienne looked healthy and spry for
the first time all season last week, but the timeshare with Bigsby
isn’t going away, even if nagging injuries have slowed his
roll of the past few weeks. The matchup is brutal, and it's unlikely
either of these guys can be trusted for the remainder of the year.
The Dallas running game was already dangling by a thread, and
the loss of Prescott is going to tank it. Dowdle has been a touchdown
or bust option all season, and maybe with bye weeks he squeaks
into lineups, but he’s certainly not someone to trust, especially
since he’s yet to score on the ground.
