The spotlight is on quarterback Jayden Daniels as he faces off
against the Eagles' formidable defense. During the regular season,
the Eagles were stingy, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points
to opposing quarterbacks. These teams' earlier encounter in Week
11 saw Daniels somewhat contained, with the rookie managing only
191 passing yards on 32 attempts, one touchdown, and an interception,
alongside a meager 18 rushing yards. However, things shifted dramatically
in their rematch during Week 16. Daniels exploded for 258 passing
yards, throwing five touchdowns despite two interceptions, and
added 81 yards on the ground. This performance was not only Daniels'
best of the season but also a testament to why dual-threat quarterbacks
can be such game-changers in fantasy football, even against tough
defenses. While Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts are
also in the mix, making it hard to crown Daniels as the top quarterback
option this week, his previous outing against the Eagles proves
he has the capability to exploit this defense. Daniels' recent
form suggests that when he's at his best, perhaps no other quarterback
in fantasy football boasts a higher ceiling. After this past week's
performance against the Lions, it's clear Daniels is hitting his
stride at the perfect time.
Terry McLaurin’s huge breakout regular season has continued
into the playoffs where the veteran has now scored a touchdown
in each of the Commanders’ two contests. He’ll be
looking to make it three straight as he faces a tough Philadelphia
defense that has been one of the most difficult teams to score
against throughout the year. McLaurin’s two games against
the Eagles so far this season have resulted in a solid, but unspectacular
Week 16 game when he caught five passes for 60 yards and a touchdown;
and a back-breaking dud back in Week 11 when he was held to just
a single 10-yard reception.
While McLaurin has been one of the best fantasy producers throughout
the season and he’s red hot at the moment, we do need to
acknowledge that this has proven to be a particularly difficult
matchup for him in the past and he will likely need to see a significant
uptick in opportunities in order to deliver for fantasy managers.
Eight total targets in the two games he’s played against
the Eagles is unlikely to cut it. However, given that the AFC
Championship game lacks wide receiver production, McLaurin is
probably a top-three wide receiver on the board for the week and
is about as strong of a stack as you’ll find when paired
with his quarterback Jayden Daniels. It’s just important
to understand that there’s significantly more risk in this
matchup than what we have typically seen throughout the regular
season.
The “touchdown or bust” season continued for Zach
Ertz in the divisional round as the veteran finished with just
28 yards on five receptions, but he managed to get into the end
zone with one of his catches, allowing him to deliver a decent
enough fantasy day for those who took a chance on him. Now he
faces a better defense in the Eagles, who allowed the second-fewest
fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season, including just
five touchdowns to the position on the year. It’s worth
noting that one of those touchdowns that they allowed came in
Week 11 when Ertz went for six receptions, 47 yards and a score
against them. Unfortunately, he followed it up with one of his
biggest duds of the season when they played again in Week 16,
as he caught just one pass for 12 yards and failed to get into
the end zone. Ertz has only finished with more than 50 yards in
a game one time since Week 9, yet he’s managed to score
seven touchdowns over that same stretch. He’s a low floor
player whose ceiling isn’t particularly high, either, so
it’s probably best to look elsewhere for tight end production
this week.
Running back Brian Robinson had a difficult matchup this past
week when he faced a Lions defense that had given up the fourth-fewest
fantasy points to opposing running backs during the regular season.
That didn’t seem to bother him, though, as he went on to
carry the ball 19 times for 77 yards and a pair of touchdowns
in Washington’s upset victory over Detroit. Normally this
type of output would make him a must-start the following week,
but fantasy managers should be careful about getting over-zealous
about Robinson in this contest. If we thought the Lions were a
tough matchup, the Eagles are only more difficult, having conceded
the second-fewest fantasy points to the position on the year,
including just five total touchdowns to backs on the year - fewest
in the league this season. They faced Robinson twice and although
he did get into the end zone once, he managed to produce just
87 yards on the ground at a 3.3 yards per carry pace. With Austin
Ekeler being by far the more productive back in passing situations,
this seems like a good time to stay away from Robinson.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
It’s been a tough two-week stretch for A.J. Brown fans
as the superstar wide receiver has turned in his worst fantasy
performances of the season in back-to-back weeks, both coming
in the Eagles’ two playoff games so far. Brown managed to
catch just one pass for 10 yards against the Packers in the Wild
Card round, then was held to just two receptions for 14 yards
this past week against the Rams. One note of positivity for those
looking for hope is that while he was essentially blanked on the
scoreboard against Los Angeles, he did see seven targets on the
day. That may not sound like a lot, but when Jalen Hurts attempts
just 21 passes for the day, that’s an impressive 33-percent
target share.
Brown’s lack of production certainly makes him a risky
player to put in the “Favorites” portion of this week’s
article, but Brown has a track record that goes back way further
than just two games, and it’s one that we can lean on. In
fact, Brown was productive in both of the two games that the Eagles
played against the Commanders earlier this season. In Week 11,
he caught five of the eight passes that came his way for 65 yards,
and then he followed that up with an eight-catch, 110-yard, one-touchdown
day on 15 targets in Week 16. The 15 targets he saw in that contest
were by far his highest total of the season and the eight receptions
he made matched a season-high. Needless to say, Brown’s
usage remains strong and as long as the Commanders can keep Saquon
Barkley in some sort of check then Brown should be in line to
see more opportunities this week than he’s had in recent
games.
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts continues to be limited through
the air, but it really hasn’t stopped him from remaining
a quality fantasy producer. Hurts has now been held to fewer than
180 passing yards in five of his past six games (excluding Week
16 when he was knocked out of the game early), but he’s
still managed to throw eight touchdown passes over those games
while also rushing for an average of 47 yards per game and adding
four scores on the ground. This type of production has made Hurts
an extremely high-floor player who also provides a reasonably
high ceiling even though he’s averaging just under 23 pass
attempts per game during this stretch.
What’s concerning is that Hurts is now dealing with an
injury to his left knee that was sustained during the Eagles victory
over the Rams this past week. Hurts was noticeably hampered both
during and following the game, and while reports are that the
team is preparing for him to play, there’s a real chance
that he’s going to be physically limited from a mobility
standpoint in this contest.
If Hurts is dealing with an injury that slows him down, or even
one that could potentially get worse with further impact, then
the Eagles will almost certainly be incentivized to limit his
rushing opportunities in this game. That doesn’t mean that
he’ll be kept from performing the infamous “tush push”
near the goal line, but it does likely mean that we won’t
be seeing as many designed quarterback runs for him throughout
the contest, including in the red zone.
We likely won’t know more until close to kickoff, if at
all, but if Hurts is going to be limited then fantasy managers
should probably take the opportunity to look elsewhere for quarterback
production this week.
The Eagles continue to dominate teams by utilizing their running
game and one player who’s seen his opportunities limited
because of that has been wide receiver DeVonta Smith. Smith remains
quite efficient with the opportunities, catching nearly every
pass that comes his way, but is averaging just over six targets
per game since Week 10 and he’s only gone over 60 yards
twice in a game during this entire eight-game stretch. This includes
back-to-back games with just four targets, which he’s caught
all of, but only converted for 76 total yards during Philadelphia’s
two playoff games.
To make matters worse, Smith also struggled in the two games
he played against this same Commanders defense. Back in Week 11,
he caught four passes for just 29 yards on six targets, and then
he followed that up with six catches for 51 yards on eight targets
in Week 16. Smith failed to get into the end zone in either of
those games, thus punishing the fantasy managers who took a chance
on him.
Smith is still very clearly the second option in this passing
game, but Jalen Hurts has reached 30 pass attempts in a game just
once since Week 5, so the target ceiling remains very limited.
Just five lead backs have broken double-digit points against
the Chiefs defense all season, and none have topped 18 points
per game. Yet James Cook had the second highest fantasy point
total against Kansas City this season, producing 17.2 points against
them in Week 11.
Still, there are reasons to proceed with caution, at least if
your contest only allows for selecting 1 (or perhaps even 2) backs.
For starters, while Cook had a valuable fantasy performance, he
managed just 20 yards on 9 rushes and 7 yards on 5 receptions.
It was 2 scores which carried the day in a game the Bills won
30-21.
This leads to a second point of caution: In the regular season
matchup, Cook saw goal line opportunities that may be harder to
come by against the Chiefs this week. A Chiefs defense that kept
Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara and Bucky Irving from even
achieving top 25 performances stands to make Cook a very costly
proposition if you’re starting him as more than an RB3-Flex.
Meanwhile, in the last two weeks, Khalil Shakir has led the Bills
with 6 and 7 targets respectively, while no other wideout in the
offense has had more than 3. It's clear that Shakir is the number
one receiving option, giving him some appeal. Being second in
the league in YAC yards this season is certainly a valued asset,
especially with weather a concern, and shorter passes become a
bigger part of the game plan.
With at least 5 receptions in 11-of-17 games played this year,
and at least 2 receptions in each contest, Shakir tends to carry
a respectable floor. He remains limited in terms of ceiling due
to the high volume of rushing in the Bills offense as well as
James Cook and Josh Allen eating up the majority of the red zone
scoring action. Still, the remaining field of teams are limited
on solid wide receiver options, so Shakir certainly has that solid
flex appeal this weekend.
Kincaid's surprisingly quiet sophomore season continued to fizzle
last week against the Ravens, when he caught just 1 ball for 11
yards on a mere two targets. Kincaid hasn't surpassed 53 yards
receiving this season, has just two games with more than 4 receptions,
and has thus far lacked touchdown upside, scoring just 4 times
in 29 career games. While the Chiefs continue to get victimized
by tight ends (5-45-1 for Dalton Schultz in the Divisional Round),
Kincaid is the least appealing option of the four tight ends remaining
on the field this weekend.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Versatile wide receiver Xavier Worthy has seen at least 6 targets
and 1 rush in each of the last five games he’s played, with a
peak target and rush volume reaching 14 in two of those five matchups.
If anything, the trade for DeAndre Hopkins and the return of Marquise
“Hollywood” Brown has set up better matchups for Worthy, spreading
out the defense, creating more consistent run opportunities. Hopkins
is also very adept at blocking as a wide receiver. Worthy’s maturation
as a rookie is surely also a factor, as well as his growing chemistry
with QB Patrick Mahomes. With a thinned class of wide receivers
remaining to choose from and facing a banged-up Bills secondary,
the multi-threat receiver can be viewed as a solid WR2.
After 23+ fantasy points in each of his previous two games, Patrick
Mahomes managed just 12.5 points in a Divisional Round victory
over the Houston Texans. A lot of controversy colored both Mahomes
and the Chiefs overall performance, but for fantasy football purposes
the most relevant number was 25. That was the number of pass attempts
that Mahomes had in the difficult conditions, after a streak of
six-straight games and nine out of ten with 37 or more attempts.
When considering Mahomes this week, watching the weather as game
day nears should be of a major consideration. Cold, and particularly
windy conditions may once again lead to limited volume for the
star QB, knocking him out of consideration as a QB1 play. This
is particularly the case against the turnover-forcing Bills defense
(32 turnovers forced this season), as one would imagine Andy Reid
and company will look to prevent a repeat of what the Bills defense
did to the Ravens last week. Better weather could see a shootout
and make Mahomes much more appealing.
Meanwhile, with Isiah Pacheco struggling to regain his old form
following a return from injury, Kareem Hunt has not quite reclaimed
lead back status, but he is seeing the larger portion of the split
between the two. Hunt has received at least 40% of snaps in each
of the last three weeks he's been active, while Pacheco's not
broken that 40% mark. Just as important, it appears Hunt is the
preferred goal line option - he's scored in three-straight active
games, while Pacheco has not scored in six games since returning
from injury.
Hunt's touches are limited (9 against Houston last week, and
a cap of 14 in the last month), so he'll likely need to score
to have a Flex worthy day, but the winter weather will likely
have the Chiefs leaning towards the run and the Bills have some
vulnerability against running backs (8th most points allowed),
making Hunt a flex option due to his scoring upside.
Pacheco is struggling to get out of the back seat in this backfield,
and with no signs apparent that things are set to change, Pacheco
can’t be considered an option in your fantasy lineup this
week.
