Despite playing extremely well in relief of Jimmy Garoppolo as
a rookie, there were plenty of reasons for skepticism as to whether
Purdy was the real deal. For the most part, those questions have
been answered -- and the one lingering doubt regarding how much
credit belongs to the quarterback and how much is a mix of scheme
and a deep pool of talent to throw to doesn’t matter since
the architect and playmakers are all back for 2024.
In his first full year as a starter, Purdy finished fifth in
passing yardage (4,280) and third in TDs (31) despite sitting
out the finale. Granted, he did have a few stinkers, most notably
his Christmas night debacle against the Ravens, and he was shaky
at times during the playoff run, but the 49ers should enter the
new season with an even higher level of confidence in their field
general.
While not the most physically gifted of quarterbacks, the 24-year-old
does a good job of buying time in the pocket and is smart with
the football. His lack of running ability limits his fantasy appeal
to a degree, leaving him on the fringes of QB1 territory, though
with a few rushing TDs and playing a full 17-game schedule he
could crack the position’s top 10.
There have never been any questions about McCaffrey’s talent.
He entered the NFL as the eighth overall pick back in 2017, and
he averaged 1,814 yards and 13 TDs over his first three years.
It was the injuries that created a fog over his fantasy value
with the Stanford product appearing in just three games in 2020
and seven the following season. It devalued him enough that the
Panthers were willing to take pennies on the dollar from San Francisco
when they traded him in 2022.
Since joining the 49ers in October 2022, McCaffrey has appeared
in 27 of 28 possible games (he, like many of the team’s
playmakers, was held out of Week 18 this last year), during which
time he has averaged 119.7 yards per game and visited the end
zone 31 times. Not only has he stayed on the field, but he’s
also been a workhorse, completely marginalizing the team’s
depth at the position and finishing second in the NFL in carries
(272) last year. Although he doesn’t get targeted on the
same level as he was in Carolina, the veteran remains arguably
the top pass-catching back in the NFL.
Entering his age-28 season, Run CMC should still be in his prime,
and coming off consecutive injury-free campaigns you can feel
comfortable downgrading his injury risk. Given his consistency,
involvement in one of the league’s top offenses, and talent,
McCaffrey appears to be the clear choice for the No. 1 overall
pick in most drafts.
Mitchell looked like a smart insurance policy when McCaffrey
was acquired given the latter’s history of injury woes. Instead,
it’s the former that has had trouble staying on the field. The
club’s leading rusher in 2021, Mitchell has appeared in just 16
of 34 games over the past two seasons, and he scarcely was used
when he was healthy last year -- 31 of his 75 carries came in
the final two weeks when McCaffrey was rested for the postseason.
Perhaps he’s still worth a late-round handcuff selection, but
who’s to say he'll keep the RB2 role ahead of Jordan
Mason or rookie Isaac
Guerendo?
WR Deebo Samuel
(2023 WR Rank: No.13, 16.2 FPts/G)
If there’s one player that has been adversely affected
by the arrival of McCaffrey, it’s Samuel. Rewind the clock
to 2021 and the South Carolina alum was probably the focal point
of the offense. He caught 77 passes for 1,405 yards and 6 TDs,
and he added 365 yards and 8 TDs on 59 carries. Over the last
two years, his numbers have dipped, averaging 762 yards and 4.5
TDs as a receiver and 229 yards and 4 TDs as a runner. While those
aren’t bad numbers, his Swiss Army Knife appeal was lessened
by the arrival of a player with an equally rare combination of
skills.
For a time this offseason, it appeared the 49ers were ready to
move on from Samuel with trade rumors aplenty leading up to (and
even during) the draft. He remains on the roster, though, and
there’s no reason to think he’ll be moved in-season. Given the
state of his contract, the team’s salary cap, and ongoing questions
about Brandon Aiyuk’s future, it’s certainly possible he’s entering
his final season by the Bay. Whether that adds any extra motivation
is unknown, but it’s something to consider.
Samuel has had some issues staying healthy, due in part to his
ultra physical style of play, having never played every game in
a season during his five-year career. It’s not enough to
devalue him much, though, and even with declining production he’s
a possible low-end No. 2 fantasy wideout.
Few players have been more heavily covered than Aiyuk during
the offseason thanks to his ongoing contract situation with the
club. The 49ers exercised their fifth-year option on the talented
wideout, meaning he’s set to earn north of $14M in 2024,
but his future beyond that is cloudy. He’s said that the
team doesn’t want him back, yet also noted that he’d
“for sure” like to return. It could all be posturing,
though like with Samuel, the team was reportedly open for business
on trade talks.
While Samuel has seen his production wane, Aiyuk has seen his
rise year on year, breaking the 1,000-yard mark for the first
time in 2022 and then following that up with a 75-1342-7 season
last year as he emerged as Purdy’s go-to guy -- his 17.9
yards per catch was second among qualified pass catchers behind
Pittsburgh’s George Pickens (18.1). He’s powerfully
built, makes big plays and has been highly durable during his
four NFL campaigns.
Under the current CBA, a holdout is extremely unlikely once training
camp starts. Yes, given that the 49ers used their top pick on
WR Ricky Pearsall, the odds are either Aiyuk or Samuel will be
gone in 2025. That shouldn’t matter to fantasy owners, and
Aiyuk has earned his spot as a top-20 fantasy receiver and a superior
option to Samuel.
For the first time since 2019, Kittle topped the 1,000-yard mark,
putting up a 65-1020-6 line -- he was the only tight end to surpass
1,000 yards last year. That’s the good news. The bad news
is his week-to-week production was all over the place. Three times
last year he reached triple digits. Four times he was held below
20 yards. You simply didn’t see that kind of variance from
other top guys at the position such as Kansas City’s Travis
Kelce, Detroit’s Sam LaPorta, or Minnesota’s T.J.
Hockenson (knee) before he tore his ACL. It’s an offshoot
of playing in an offense with so many dynamic weapons, and it’s
not something that’s likely to change.
Heading into his age-31 season, Kittle is a proven commodity.
He’s been mostly durable during his career, though he’s
only appeared in every game once in seven seasons, and he has
averaged 960 yards and 6 TDs over the last six. The recent influx
of talent at the position (LaPorta, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid,
Kyle Pitts, Jake Ferguson) makes ranking Kittle a bit more subjective.
He’s undeniably a TE1, and you could absolutely justify
him as one of the top six. You could also drop him to borderline
top-10 status if you preferred one of those younger options with
a higher ceiling.
