Normally in this column we focus on value plays on FanDuel and
I also post one of my primary cash lineups. This week however
we are going to focus on what players to fade in Week 4 cash games.
Before I get to it, I want to recap what happened last
week with my primary cash game. Hopefully you weren't like
me and trotted out Marshawn
Lynch in your Thursday contests - that was a big whole to
dig out from. If you checked back, you would have noticed I changed
my lineup when the news broke regarding Lynch’s status and my
revised lineup did very well. In a week where huge scores were
posted, my primary cash game lineup kept up well enough to cash
in most contests. It was led by great performances from Cam
Newton, Adrian
Peterson, and Larry
Fitzgerald. It's always nice to rebound after a tough Week
2, and I apologize if you weren't able to get Lynch out of your
lineup in time.
As we move forward to Week 4, I want to stress that choosing
players to fade in cash games can be every bit as important as
finding value. Some of these fades lead me to this week’s
lineup which I believe represent a very high floor… exactly
what you want in cash game lineups.
Last week Carlos Hyde was a victim of another poor game script
as Colin Kaepernick threw two interceptions for touchdowns in
the first quarter. This is exactly the reason so many people were
down on Hyde this summer. If the 49ers can't improve as a team
and keep games close, this will be a recurring theme. It doesn't
help that pass-catching running back Reggie Bush could be close
to returning. When games are out of hand Bush may see more snaps
than Hyde. This week against the Green Bay Packers, I don't see
Hyde and this offense getting back on track, I would fade him
in your cash lineups.
I know Indianapolis plays a Jacksonville Jaguars team that was
absolutely blown out by Tom Brady and the Patriots last week but
hear me out. There is no doubt that Luck has struggled this year,
both with poor offensive line play and turnovers. Everyone is
waiting for the breakout game from him to finally hit the value
we expect. Hoping and praying is not a good strategy in DFS, especially
in your cash game lineup. The problem is not his talent, it is
his price. He is still the No.2 quarterback on FanDuel, $100 less
than Aaron Rodgers who threw five touchdown passes last week and
draws San Francisco this week. Luck is also dealing with a shoulder
injury that his him Questionable for this game. Even if he does
start, either pay up for Rodgers or move back to a value play
like Derek Carr or Tyrod Taylor. Don't get cute, fade Luck until
he shows us something.
Three touchdowns on 14 carries last week will be an extremely
hard thing for him to duplicate this week against the New Orleans
Saints. That sound you hear are the footsteps of the talented
Christine Michael coming for Randle's job. Dallas has made it
clear that his opportunity will come sooner rather than later
and that doesn't sound like a great endorsement for Randle. I
don't see him getting a large share of carries in this game and
that is what you are after from your running back in cash games.
Volume is very important when constructing a high floor lineup.
Let someone else take the risk and chase last week’s points,
fade Randle in Week 4.
Though it is debatable who has been running routes better as
of late Robinson or Allen Hurns, I love Robinson's talent. I do
not love his situation, mainly his quarterback Blake Bortles.
Last week against the Patriots, on one of the first plays of the
game, Robinson beat his cornerback with a nice double move. Bortles
stared him down the entire time, hesitated, and then underthrew
a ball that Robinson could have taken to the house. He gave the
defender time to catch up and allowed the safety over the top
ample time to come help. Those frustrating plays make it hard
to trust Robinson in cash games. Essentially you are trusting
Blake Bortles, not something I like to do with my money. This
week against Indianapolis the Jaguars should be playing catch
up most of the game. Even with a garbage time touchdown extremely
possible, I'm not ready to take that risk. I'm fading Allen Robinson
in cash games for the foreseeable future.
Coach Sean Payton has vowed to get C.J. Spiller the ball more.
He is very capable of doing so and being very successful at implementing
Spiller in a Darren Sproles type roll in the offense but I will
believe it when I see it. I like Ingram in this game and I believe
that he will continue to catch passes as well, something we didn't
predict this summer when Spiller was signed. It remains to be
seen if quarterback Drew Brees will be available for this game
but even if he is, I don't see Spiller being a slam dunk cash
game play, even at his attractive price. He's a fade for me in
Week 4.
The game script should be a good one as I expect Aaron Rodgers
and the Packers to walk all over the 49ers in Week 4. If the game
is well in hand this might actually hurt Lacy I'm afraid. His
ankle has clearly been limiting him and if Green Bay gets off
to a lead it is very possible we will see more of backup running
back James Starks as he has shown that he is very capable of handling
the load. This situation is too risky for me at a salary of $7800
as I feel like at any moment Lacy could tweak the ankle and be
done for the game. I’m fading Lacy until I'm confident he
has moved past his injury.
Though I'm not convinced he may fall off a cliff this season
like some, I want no part of him at this price in cash games against
Richard Sherman and the Seattle Seahawks in Week 4. I don't see
quarterback Matthew Stafford righting this ship this week, especially
against the Seahawks on the road. The Seahawks just held the Bears
to under 100 yards passing. They are an angry football team that
you don’t mess with at home. All Lions are a fade for me
this week, this includes Megatron.
There are too many quarterbacks at this price point or less this
week that I like more. Let me rephrase, quarterbacks not facing
the Buffalo Bills on the road. Again I would rather roll with
a cheaper option likeTyrod
Taylor, Derek
Carr, or even Andy
Dalton in plus matchups. Even with Odell
Beckham Jr. as his main weapon, Eli is clearly a fade in Week
4.