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Joe Holka | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Daily Guidance: Week 6
Players to Fade
10/16/15


Players to fade can be almost as important as finding value, especially when constructing a lineup for cash games. The idea is to create a lineup with a high floor and low variance so you can make it above the pay line.

Last week, my cash lineup was relatively successful on the backs of Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley, Julian Edelman, and Jeremy Maclin. Unfortunately Rivers only had eyes for Antonio Gates in the Monday Night game and we didn’t get that high floor stack we were after. The Giants defense was a miss and we will look to improve this week, which has a lot of favorable situations.

This week it is hard to turn away from Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. I believe they will look to make a statement this weekend against a Colts team and it is the highest point total according to Vegas lines. DeAndre Hopkins and Larry Fitzgerald seem like automatic cash game plays, as the volume they are getting right now is extremely impressive for their current price point. I think its possible (after complaining) that Kendall Wright will get more targets and if Odell Beckham Jr. is out, look for Shane Vereen to get plenty of targets in the passing game.

DFS Cash game lineup

With that said here are my fades for Week 6 on FanDuel.

Players to Fade

1. RB – Frank Gore, IND ($7000)

The veteran has not been to blame for the Colts ho-hum offense this year. He is getting goaline carries to keep his numbers respectable but this weekend he could be a victim of a poor game script against the Patriots who are favored to win big. With the addition of Ahmad Bradshaw, Gore could lose the little bit of involvement he has in the passing game, which ultimately lowers his floor and his ceiling in fantasy. New England hasn’t been great defending the run this year but I need to see that Andrew Luck can get the ball out quick and move this offense down the field after rehabbing a sore shoulder.

2. WR- Julian Edelman, NE ($7900)

My worry here is not the player or the game script. I have a feeling that Bill Belichick may use Edelman more on the outside in this game to get more one-on-one looks for tight end Rob Gronkowski. I would expect if that happens for top cornerback Vontae Davis (foot) to shadow Edelman, which will limit his value for me. He has done very well against Brady in the past so for cash, $7900 is a bit steep for me in a game that could be controlled by the run.

3. WR- Keenan Allen, SD ($7700)

Quarterback Philip Rivers only had eyes for Antonio Gates last week and it was a tough night for Keenan Allen owners. He only had one catch in the first half as the Rivers/Allen combination missed on a few key opportunities. This offensive line just isn’t allowing Rivers enough time to make plays. The Packers have been very good against the pass including intercepting Nick Foles four times last week. I could see another strong outing for Gates as Rivers’ security blanket if the o-line doesn’t improve their protection, which makes Allen a fade for me at this price on FanDuel in Week 6.

4. WR – John Brown, ARI ($6100)

Brown made it back to practice as he has been hampered by a hamstring injury but he is starting to seem like a boom-or-bust type option in this offense. That is not applicable to a cash game consideration. The majority of his yards last week came on a 49-yard catch although it was nearly broke for a long touchdown. This week’s matchup is a good one against Pittsburgh but I am worried that Michael Floyd may start to dip deeper into Brown’s targets. I need more information before I feel comfortable playing Brown in cash.

5. RB – Andre Ellington, ARI ($5600)

Coming back from injury, Ellington walked into a full-fledged committee, which was thriving without him. Rookie David Johnson has shown flashes of big play ability and starter Chris Johnson has been very reliable and productive on the goaline for this Cardinals team. I love Ellington’s talent but I do not believe the volume will be there for him again this week. As poor as this Steelers defense is, I do not have confidence Ellington will outperform his price tag on FanDuel this week.

6. TE - Jimmy Graham, SEA ($6300)

Different week, same story with Jimmy Graham and coach Pete Carroll. He keeps saying that he would love to get the ball to Graham more, but I will believe it when I see it. The Seahawks offense only completed 15 passes last Sunday so they have a lot more problems than just their new tight end. This offensive line isn’t getting the job done but hopefully Marshawn Lynch returning this week will help move this offense back in the right direction. You would be crazy to play Graham in cash who is priced as the No.2 tight end on FanDuel.

7. QB – Josh McCown, CLE ($7000)

After setting a franchise record last week with 457 yards passing against the Ravens, I do not expect McCown’s good fortunes to continue against one of the best defenses in the league. The Broncos have one of the best pass rushing attacks around and this could be a rough outing for the Cleveland QB. I don’t know if McCown is the long-term answer for the Browns but he has been impressive the past few weeks. This will be a situation to monitor but not a fantasy asset I will be investing in this week, even though the volume will likely continue in this pass-happy offense.