If you read this article on a weekly or even periodic basis, you
know that at the Buzz, our goal is to make sense of the weekend
that was and use that information to point you towards the future.
Both tasks seem difficult at the moment after another weekend when
up was down and down was up. Can any early-round RBs stand up and
produce, please? And, are you better off putting a QB in your lineup
that has to compensate for a bad defense? The fantasy landscape
is changing fast…let’s try to figure it out together…
Poor Defense = Top Shelf QB Production
In the world of fantasy football these days, you want a QB on
a team with a poor defense. The Peyton
Manning's, Russell
Wilson's, and Matt
Ryan's of the world aren’t forced into a heavy pass attack
often because their defenses actually keep the other team from
scoring points. Meanwhile, players like Josh
McCown and Blake
Bortles are getting in shoot-outs every week and doubling
up the numbers of the more well-known signal callers. McCown’s
Sunday effort vs. Baltimore (36-51, 457 yds, 3 total TDs) was
a fantasy masterpiece built on having to throw constantly to keep
up with an opponent’s point totals. Ditto for Bortles. It’s at
the point now where you might consider McCown or Bortles as a
more viable option against a good offensive opponent than Ryan
or Wilson against a bad one. The only exception to the rule is
Tom
Brady who seems so mad at the world and he’s going to keep
his foot on the gas no matter what. Do you think Eli
Manning’s numbers on Sunday night would have been so good
if the Giants defense hadn’t folded in the second half? The answer
is no. Wacky but true.
Doug Martin is 7th in FPts per game among
all RBs and has 20-plus carries in three out of five games.
The Rebirth of Doug Martin
Do you remember how high Doug
Martin was picked in fantasy drafts in 2013? After a highly
productive rookie season, Martin became an afterthought that year
and last year as well, but in the last two weeks, Martin has produced
like it was 2012 all over again. Despite Charles
Sims stealing snaps, Martin keeps on churning out the yards
and touchdowns just the same. Martin will be on a bye this week,
and then faces four top ten rush defenses. I would tell you to trade
him this week while he’s at peak value, but quality running backs
are such a rare commodity that I wouldn’t risk getting rid of any
of them. Where else are you going to find a guy who has amassed
300-plus yards and 4 TDs the last two weeks? Answer: You won’t.
When players like Marshawn
Lynch, Eddie
Lacy, and C.J.
Anderson either can’t get on the field or can’t produce points,
it’s a thin position to be sure…
…And Getting Thinner…
As if finding quality running backs to plug into your lineup wasn’t
hard enough, Sunday we lost one the very best runners of his generation
to another season-ending knee injury. In many leagues, Jamaal
Charles’ injury changed the landscape of who is favored to win
it all. Losing your starting QB to injury (Roethlisberger, Romo,
Luck) can be disheartening, but there are always the Josh McCown's
out there to save the day if needed. There’s no such savior when
your stud RB goes down. Most waiver wires only contain fullbacks
and marginally impactful third-down backs as a replacement for someone
like Charles. And, even if you go after Charcandrick
West (what a name!) with wild abandon this week, he’s likely
to be in some sort of timeshare with Knile
Davis on a team whose opponents can stack the box due to Alex
Smith’s inability to throw the ball deep. Bottom line: The loss
of Charles stings like no injury has this season and those who overcome
it by winning a title in December will have quite the story to tell.
I doubt there will be many of you.
The Curious Cases of David and Duke
Johnson
Rookies David and Duke
Johnson can’t be trusted. After all, who would start a RB that
averages 3 carries a game over the span of the first five weeks?
Or a player that’s averaging 3 yards per carry after his first 40
NFL carries. David
Johnson now has SIX touchdowns in five weeks. On Sunday,
he only had 6 yards from scrimmage, but made the most of three touches
by scoring two touchdowns. He has multiple receiving TDs and even
a kickoff return for a TD this season to go with the trio of rushing
scores. As for Duke Johnson, he’s caught 21-of-25 targets the past
three weeks and is quickly becoming PPR gold as the league shifts
away from players like Alfred
Morris and in the direction of the more versatile back. So,
can these two be trusted? David remains too TD-dependent for consideration
in a weekly lineup and yet, if you would have started him every
week, he would have offered outstanding RB2 production. As for Duke,
it’s time to plug him in in PPR leagues. It sounds strange to say,
but that Browns offense is clicking and Johnson, tight end Gary
Barnidge, and WR Travis
Benjamin and coming along for the ride.
Time to Re-Think Your Perception of
Andy Dalton
I’m not talking about real-world perceptions, although there’s a
case to be made for that as well. Andy
Dalton simply has too many top-shelf weapons to be ignored as
a viable QB1 after five weeks. His status as a top five QB is likely
to continue for the remainder of the season barring injury. A.J.
Green remains one of the most difficult WRs to match up with
in the league and looks highly motivated this season to return the
top of his profession. Marvin
Jones is healthy again. Giovani
Bernard is a wonderful place to go with the ball on check-downs
given how creative he is in space. And finally, the second best
TE in fantasy football this year is Tyler
Eifert. Take away Eifert’s one disappearing-act game and he’s
averaging nearly 80 yards and exactly 1.25 TDs per contest. All
of that suggests Dalton is a bona fide fantasy starter moving forward
- it’s an idea you might want to get comfortable with.
The Last Stand
Here’s a piece of advice for what it’s worth: Don’t
get excited about Andre Johnson’s resurgent game on Thursday
night. The Colts tried furiously to work him into the game plan
vs. his former team and most of his catches came on blown coverages.
His big game left both the tight ends and Donte Moncrief out in
the cold, but with Andrew Luck due back in Week 6, those outlets
should once again rise to moderate prominence while Johnson returns
to being an occasional contributor. Speaking of aging Johnsons,
what are we to make of Calvin Johnson at this point in his career?
The once all-world WR has yet to eclipse 100 yards receiving in
a game this season and has only one TD. Hey, at least he’s
tied with Eddie Lacy in that department (the resentment is starting
to build…)
Fascinating Philly
Like him, don't like him but Chip Kelly continues to fascinate
me. Sunday, he gave DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews a combined
38 touches. He allowed Sam Bradford to throw the ball 45 times.
If those numbers were to continue, all would be bona fide weekly
fantasy starters. We're only going to see the new personnel in
Philadelphia get better and better. After all, it's the first
year in a new system for all three players. I realize they don't
play the Saints every week (wouldn't that be a perfect scenario
for the players in your lineup), but be patient with this team.
The final results when all is said and done are going to be better
than most people think. Next Monday night's game with the Giants
could contain fireworks galore. Just a hunch.
Welcome Back, Antonio Gates!
Did Antonio
Gates look fast last night? Agile? I thought he was done about
two years ago, but last year showed that not to be the case. His
impact coming off a suspension won't be Earth-shattering like Le'Veon
Bell's was, but he's going to quickly ascend into the top five
at the position. If you've been laboring with someone else these
past four weeks, your misery is over. If you're a Keenan Allen owner,
however, yours may be just beginning. Too bad Gates' performance
got overshadowed by Bell's incredible TD on the final play. What
a finish!
That's a wrap for the Buzz this week. With the fantasy football
season now fully into the web of treachery that is bye weeks,
hopefully, you're finding players who can fill in the gaps for
you when your starters take a week of rest. Maybe Josh McCown
or Blake Bortles was your savior in Week 5. If so, the Buzz salutes
you!
