Each year there are a handful of running backs you can pencil in
for a certain amount of yardage and a decent number of trips into
the end zone. Adrian
Peterson comes to mind as a “you know what you're getting” kind
of player. But, in the world of fantasy football, reliable running
backs are becoming scarce as wide receivers and quarterbacks have
emerged as safer options - at least that was the case last season.
However, several running backs this season have tremendous upside,
but also carry plenty of risk for various reasons. Navigating
this group of runners and targeting the right ones could lead
to a heap of fantasy success by season’s end. Let's examine five
RBs who can make or break your draft.
Devonta Freeman did the majoriy of his
damage during a four-week span early in the season.
The numbers from last year suggest that Devonta Freeman is an
elite fantasy running back. After all, he gained over 1,600 yards
from scrimmage and scored 14 TDs. In the modern world of aerial
assault, those are impressive figures. But they should be examined
carefully. Freeman scored 10 of his 14 touchdowns in a torrid
stretch of games from Week 2 through Week 6. He also produced
nearly 50 percent of his yardage totals during that same stretch.
And the defenses he faced in those five games? How about Dallas,
Washington, New Orleans, and Tennessee to name four of the five.
From Week 8 on, Freeman was a prototypical RB2.
2016 Outlook: BREAKER. Freeman
is talented and it's doubtful he will bust, but he could render
your team weak at the lead running back spot if you spend a late
first round pick on him in a redraft league. The Falcons would
like to see Freeman assume a Giovani Bernard type role this season,
albeit with a few more touches than Bernard typically sees. Tevin
Coleman is thus the Jeremy Hill that equation and could steal
some of Freeman's touches near the goal line. The advice here
is to let someone else roll the dice on Freeman as a top-20 overall
pick. If he's available beyond that, he would be worth consideration,
but he will break your team if chosen based on last year's misleading
stat line.
Nothing in 2015 was more frustrating than waiting on Eddie Lacy
to assume some sort of meaningful role within the structure of
the Packers offense. He was overweight and lacked both the power
and the burst that made him a top tier runner in both 2013 and
2014. His coach called him out immediately after the season and
put him on notice that another off-season like 2015 would end
his time with the Packers. In reality, Lacy's 4.1 ypc wasn't much
different than prior years but his longest gain from scrimmage
was less than 30 yards and he only scored a paltry three rushing
touchdowns. Does last season suggest that Lacy's heavy college
workload has begun to eat (no pun intended) into his ability to
be the running back he appeared to be prior to last year? It's
a question serious owners will be going back and forth on all
summer prior to having to make a Lacy decision on draft day.
2016 Outlook: MAKER. If you were
a 2015 Lacy owner, the pain of that debacle may be too much to
overcome. But, if you're willing to roll the dice, I think Lacy
could end up being an undervalued steal on draft day assuming
Aaron
Rodgers and Mike McCarthy can trust Lacy from inside the 5-yard
line again like they did during 2013 and 2014. When the Packers
review what is needed in 2016, a more balanced attack ala 2014
will no doubt top the list. Obviously, Lacy doesn't deserve to
be anyone's first round pick this season, but as a second rounder,
he'll be hard to beat. Watch during camp to see if the conditioning
has improved and if so, make him a top 20 pick.
This year definitely marks a crossroads for the talented, but
somewhat risky Mr. Charles. The last time Charles missed more
than one game in a season (2011), he bounced back with his only
1,500-plus yard rushing season in 2012. Charles was 26 years old
back then, though, and this time around, he'll hit 30 towards
the end of the year. So, is Charles' best years behind him or
is a Curtis Martin-like late career resurgence a likelihood? That's
difficult to know given the uncertainty surrounding his physical
recovery and the emergence of two semi-capable backfield mates
in the form of Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware. Anyone who
has enjoyed the fruits of Charles' most productive seasons will
be tempted to select him late in the first round or early in the
second of redrafts next month. But, should you?
2016 Outlook: BREAKER. We threw
out several names above, but failed to mention the most significant
name in the equation: Andy Reid. Reid oversaw the rise and fall
of the very talented Brian Westbrook during his tenure in Philadelphia.
Reid limited Westbrook's carries to less than 250 in all but one
season and preferred to pass in the red zone rather than run the
ball. Not much has changed in terms of handling his current top
weapon. In 2014 (Reid's first year with the Chiefs), Charles had
53 less carries in the same number of games played. He also had
five fewer touchdowns. And now two years later and coming off
a knee injury, does increasing Charles's touches make sense? No.
Let me put it plainly. Running backs that carry the ball 200 times
in a season and score fewer than double digit touchdowns aren't
first round picks. They probably shouldn't even be picked in the
second round. Sure, Reid could break tradition, but I’m not betting
on it. Buyer beware.
Have you seen the 49ers depth chart at running back? Shaun Draughn,
Mike Davis, and sixth-round draft pick Kelvin Taylor don't pose
much of a threat to Hyde, leaving a healthy Carlos to be the beneficiary
of Chip Kelly's run-heavy offense. Hyde may be a better fit in
Kelly's system than LeSean McCoy ever was and the Kelly-McCoy
marriage wasn't too bad from a fantasy football standpoint. Hyde
has certainly showed flashes in his career to date with 182 yards
and 2 TDs during Week 1 against Minnesota last season. But, the
49ers imploded as a team in the weeks to follow and Hyde kind
of went down with the ship until an injury mercifully ended his
season. So, how do we value Hyde? If you read between the lines
of my opening statement, you know where we're headed here…
2016 Outlook: MAKER. Hyde belongs
on any list of high-risk draft day selections because 1) he hasn't
demonstrated to be a true/consistent fantasy force, and 2) he
plays on a really bad team. Do not let that deter you from recognizing
his role this season. He will be the centerpiece of Chip Kelly's
efforts to redeem himself after his best laid plans fell flat
in Philadelphia. No one can predict injuries and certainly Hyde
comes with some risk in that department. But, I'll stake everything
I've got on Hyde being a top ten back this year assuming minimal
interruptions in production due to health. I like him to take
advantage of Kelly’s system that ranked 11th and 7th in rushing
attempts the last two seasons. Make him a late-second, early-third
round pick at RB and he'll make you happy.
The final rusher that we'll focus on is in a situation very similar
to Hyde. Matt Jones showed flashes of being an elite level back
last season, but nagging injuries and the presence of veteran
Alfred Morris kept Jones from truly breaking out along with his
tendency to put the ball on the ground (5 fumbles lost). Now,
he'll get a chance to be the lead back from day one with very
little competition and in an offense that learned how to spread
the field as the 2015 season progressed. He's totally unproven
in a way that goes beyond Hyde, but there simply isn't the talent
at the position to keep him from garnering 15-20 touches a game
minimum.
2016 Outlook: MAKER. Of the five
running backs noted in this article, Jones can be had at the cheapest
price. His current ADP stands at RB21 behind Hyde at RB17. Of
the five, though, he may end up being the best of the bunch in
terms of value as defined by production relative to draft position.
Chris
Thompson will get some work on third down, but Jones' five
games over 20 receiving yards including a 131-yard outburst vs.
New Orleans last season proves that he can be a threat through
the air. MAKE no mistake; no running back is in a better position
to take a giant leap forward than Jones.
