For all intents and purposes, the preseason ended yesterday from
a fantasy standpoint. Week 4 is typically a showcase for players
on the roster bubble and gives coaches one last chance to make adjustments
in preparation for the regular season. The starters played more
in Week 3 than they did in any other preseason week, so we got a
glimpse of where teams are via “dress rehearsal” weekend
in the NFL. As such, today represents some final thoughts from what
has been an eventful preseason…
Tony Romo is hurt again, meaning the Dak
Prescott hype can reach Texas-sized outrageousness.
1. The Dak Prescott train will be
leaving the station sooner than expected
Dak
Prescott has received a lot of press over the course of the
past couple of weeks. Some of it was deserved (7 TDs and no INTs
during the preseason) and some of it was just because he plays
for the Cowboys. But, now the talk becomes more serious with Tony
Romo likely to miss half the season after fracturing a vertebra
in his back. Prescott has looked terrific thus far both in and
out of the pocket and has shown an ability to get the ball to
his weapons. However, his early arrival cannot be seen as a positive
for owners of Dez
Bryant and Jason
Witten just yet. The Cowboys are likely going to keep things
simple in September, meaning a lot of carries for Ezekiel
Elliott and Alfred
Morris. Elliott’s debut by the way (7 carries, 48 yards vs.
Seattle’s first string defense) should have eased concerns about
his standing to begin the season. Prescott is worth a late flier
in redrafts; Elliott’s value is largely unchanged, and Bryant’s
value falls into Round 2 considering what took place over the
weekend.
2. Flying under the radar…
DeVante
Parker has received a lot of pre-season hype in fantasy circles
as he tries to emerge as Miami’s big play receiver, but Kenny
Stills continues to perform and turn the most heads. Stills
equaled the number of receptions of Jarvis
Landry on Thursday and led the Dolphins in receiving yards.
In deeper leagues, he is certainly worthy of a draft pick and
might finally be ready to provide the Dolphins a return on their
investment. Elsewhere, Chris
Hogan netted a lengthy TD reception (33 yards) from Tom
Brady this past weekend and garnered five catches overall
for 62 yards. With the Patriots lacking anyone else to stretch
the field, Hogan may gain a prominent role in their offense from
the start. Like Stills, he is worthy of a pick in the later rounds.
3. Lackluster performances form veteran
quarterbacks included…
Matt
Ryan, Jay
Cutler, and Carson
Palmer. All three have outstanding lead receivers as well
as talent coming out of the backfield in the case of Ryan and
Palmer. Yet, the trio combined for 23-for -46 passing over the
weekend with zero touchdowns and three interceptions. Atlanta
and Chicago have looked sluggish offensively and don’t’ inspire
confidence with Alshon
Jeffery and Julio
Jones drawing double coverage on seemingly every play. Palmer’s
case is a bit different as he has multiple weapons to utilize,
but he’s at the age when many quarterbacks hit a wall and I think
he’s being over-drafted based on last season’s gaudy numbers.
Having a bad week in the preseason doesn’t mean much, but having
a bad Week 3 in the preseason means more than all other weeks
combined. Adjust your rankings accordingly.
4. Sometimes, it’s not about the numbers
Nothing Matt
Forte or Arian
Foster did over the weekend was overly impressive. The duo
combined for 15 carries and only gained 38 yards, but the fact
that both got work in a real game situation suggested that both
are ready to contribute from beginning Week 1 - something that
hasn’t been a certainty throughout the summer. Foster did punch
in a touchdown with one of his five touches and now that he’s
received some action, we look for him to be the lead runner in
a committee situation in Miami. Forte is likely going to fulfill
a similar role in New York but for both players, this weekend
it was about presence, not performance.
5. Historically, it doesn’t get much
worse
Question: How does Pittsburgh’s Landry
Jones go from a zero-touchdown, four-interception outing to
going 19-for-22 with 206 passing yards and a touchdown? Answer:
He played against the New Orleans Saints’ defense. Whether it
was Ben
Roethlisberger carving up the Saints early or Jones doing
his damage later on, apparently very little has changed in New
Orleans in terms of their defensive prowess. The Saints ranked
dead last in fantasy points allowed last season at all skill positions
combined and offered almost no resistance to Antonio
Brown and company this weekend. Starting a player against
the Saints, particularly a QB, is almost imperative if you have
that option. On the flip side, Drew
Brees may put up historical numbers of his own in an effort
to try to keep up with his own defense.
6. Jameis Winston appears ready to
be a top ten quarterback
Much like the Saints, the Cleveland Browns aren’t exactly a team
to be reckoned with defensively, but Jameis Winston’s first half
barrage on Friday was very impressive nonetheless. Winston completed
16 passes for 259 yards and two TDs, including five connections
with Mike
Evans who abused the Cleveland secondary for well over 100
yards and a TD. Winston has looked sharp all preseason and clearly
has the weapons to put up the kind of numbers that make him a
bona fide starter in fantasy football week in and week out. He’s
in the same tier with Blake
Bortles, Eli
Manning, and Carson
Palmer. His stock is no doubt on the rise and if you’re a
person who likes to wait a bit before selecting your first quarterback,
it’s time to start considering Winston as your target.
7. Flash Gordon has returned to the
building (times two)
Even though Cleveland wasn’t happy with its defensive play on
Friday, there had to be some raised heads within the organization
regarding Josh
Gordon. Gordon only caught two passes, but they went for 44
and 43 yards respectively and included a marvelous TD reception
in a tight coverage on a throw from Robert
Griffin III. Gordon is just a snap of the fingers away from
being suspended indefinitely, but for those considering him on
draft day or those who already took a chance on him, your interest
seems justified. And, how about Melvin
Gordon for San Diego? He was written off in last week’s article,
but scoffed at the critics with a 39-yard TD scamper this weekend.
I’m still not bullish on his prospects over the course of the
season, but it goes to show how different things can look from
week-to-week in August.
8. We’re going to run and run until
we can’t run anymore…
I’ve got to give credit again to a team that seems to know what
they are and what they are not. TheTitans once again gave the
rock early and often to their smashmouth duo of DeMarco
Murray and Derrick
Henry and the results were two rushing touchdowns and nearly
100 yards on 20 carries. The question remains, though: Will the
Titans abandon this identity when they fall behind in games (which
could be often)? I would submit that unless they’re playing one
of the league’s truly elite teams, they’ll stick with the game
plan even when trailing by a couple of touchdowns. They’ve clearly
established a run-first pattern in the preseason. The split of
carries will limit the individual values of each running back,
but if one of the two were to miss time, the other’s value would
rise as a favorite to get 20-plus carries a game. Fantasy owners
shouldn’t be locked on to Tennessee as a source of fantasy gold
at this point, but don’t sleep on them either.
9. We would like to run…but we can’t
As a team, the Colts ran the ball 18 times for 39 yards this past
weekend. Things are looking so bleak they signed Stevan
Ridley after the game to try to bolster one of the league’s
weakest backfields to go along with one of the league’s weakest
offensive lines. Their best offensive lineman (Jack Mewhort) sprained
his knee vs. the Eagles and will likely miss the first month of
the season. The Colts will be leaning heavily on Frank
Gore, but unless you get points for RB carries, it may not
mean much. Until the team can become more balanced offensively,
defenses should be able to tee off on Andrew
Luck and that means more injury risk and less upside for his
wide receivers than most might think.
10. Ending on a positive note
Finally, there are a few players worth mentioning who are trending
in the right direction coming into Labor Day Weekend redraft leagues.
At quarterback, Kirk
Cousins threw 3 second quarter TDs and looked every bit of
the player from last December. At running back, Christine
Michael (7-58) kept his preseason momentum going in the right
direction with another strong performance, and at wide receiver,
keep an eye on Stefon
Diggs as the season begins. Diggs registered 5 catches for
71 yards and looks like the receiver to own in Minnesota. In addition,
Will
Fuller of Houston had another solid week, going for over 60
yards and a TD versus Arizona yesterday afternoon. Fuller’s emergence
makes him a viable late-round flier and also raises the value
of QB Brock
Osweiler.
For those yet to draft, best wishes on your efforts this upcoming
week/weekend!