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Kirk Hollis | Archive | Email  
Staff Writer


Ten Things We Learned From Preseason Week 3
8/29/16

For all intents and purposes, the preseason ended yesterday from a fantasy standpoint. Week 4 is typically a showcase for players on the roster bubble and gives coaches one last chance to make adjustments in preparation for the regular season. The starters played more in Week 3 than they did in any other preseason week, so we got a glimpse of where teams are via “dress rehearsal” weekend in the NFL. As such, today represents some final thoughts from what has been an eventful preseason…

Dak Prescott

Tony Romo is hurt again, meaning the Dak Prescott hype can reach Texas-sized outrageousness.

1. The Dak Prescott train will be leaving the station sooner than expected

Dak Prescott has received a lot of press over the course of the past couple of weeks. Some of it was deserved (7 TDs and no INTs during the preseason) and some of it was just because he plays for the Cowboys. But, now the talk becomes more serious with Tony Romo likely to miss half the season after fracturing a vertebra in his back. Prescott has looked terrific thus far both in and out of the pocket and has shown an ability to get the ball to his weapons. However, his early arrival cannot be seen as a positive for owners of Dez Bryant and Jason Witten just yet. The Cowboys are likely going to keep things simple in September, meaning a lot of carries for Ezekiel Elliott and Alfred Morris. Elliott’s debut by the way (7 carries, 48 yards vs. Seattle’s first string defense) should have eased concerns about his standing to begin the season. Prescott is worth a late flier in redrafts; Elliott’s value is largely unchanged, and Bryant’s value falls into Round 2 considering what took place over the weekend.

2. Flying under the radar…

DeVante Parker has received a lot of pre-season hype in fantasy circles as he tries to emerge as Miami’s big play receiver, but Kenny Stills continues to perform and turn the most heads. Stills equaled the number of receptions of Jarvis Landry on Thursday and led the Dolphins in receiving yards. In deeper leagues, he is certainly worthy of a draft pick and might finally be ready to provide the Dolphins a return on their investment. Elsewhere, Chris Hogan netted a lengthy TD reception (33 yards) from Tom Brady this past weekend and garnered five catches overall for 62 yards. With the Patriots lacking anyone else to stretch the field, Hogan may gain a prominent role in their offense from the start. Like Stills, he is worthy of a pick in the later rounds.

3. Lackluster performances form veteran quarterbacks included…

Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, and Carson Palmer. All three have outstanding lead receivers as well as talent coming out of the backfield in the case of Ryan and Palmer. Yet, the trio combined for 23-for -46 passing over the weekend with zero touchdowns and three interceptions. Atlanta and Chicago have looked sluggish offensively and don’t’ inspire confidence with Alshon Jeffery and Julio Jones drawing double coverage on seemingly every play. Palmer’s case is a bit different as he has multiple weapons to utilize, but he’s at the age when many quarterbacks hit a wall and I think he’s being over-drafted based on last season’s gaudy numbers. Having a bad week in the preseason doesn’t mean much, but having a bad Week 3 in the preseason means more than all other weeks combined. Adjust your rankings accordingly.

4. Sometimes, it’s not about the numbers

Nothing Matt Forte or Arian Foster did over the weekend was overly impressive. The duo combined for 15 carries and only gained 38 yards, but the fact that both got work in a real game situation suggested that both are ready to contribute from beginning Week 1 - something that hasn’t been a certainty throughout the summer. Foster did punch in a touchdown with one of his five touches and now that he’s received some action, we look for him to be the lead runner in a committee situation in Miami. Forte is likely going to fulfill a similar role in New York but for both players, this weekend it was about presence, not performance.

5. Historically, it doesn’t get much worse

Question: How does Pittsburgh’s Landry Jones go from a zero-touchdown, four-interception outing to going 19-for-22 with 206 passing yards and a touchdown? Answer: He played against the New Orleans Saints’ defense. Whether it was Ben Roethlisberger carving up the Saints early or Jones doing his damage later on, apparently very little has changed in New Orleans in terms of their defensive prowess. The Saints ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed last season at all skill positions combined and offered almost no resistance to Antonio Brown and company this weekend. Starting a player against the Saints, particularly a QB, is almost imperative if you have that option. On the flip side, Drew Brees may put up historical numbers of his own in an effort to try to keep up with his own defense.

6. Jameis Winston appears ready to be a top ten quarterback

Much like the Saints, the Cleveland Browns aren’t exactly a team to be reckoned with defensively, but Jameis Winston’s first half barrage on Friday was very impressive nonetheless. Winston completed 16 passes for 259 yards and two TDs, including five connections with Mike Evans who abused the Cleveland secondary for well over 100 yards and a TD. Winston has looked sharp all preseason and clearly has the weapons to put up the kind of numbers that make him a bona fide starter in fantasy football week in and week out. He’s in the same tier with Blake Bortles, Eli Manning, and Carson Palmer. His stock is no doubt on the rise and if you’re a person who likes to wait a bit before selecting your first quarterback, it’s time to start considering Winston as your target.

7. Flash Gordon has returned to the building (times two)

Even though Cleveland wasn’t happy with its defensive play on Friday, there had to be some raised heads within the organization regarding Josh Gordon. Gordon only caught two passes, but they went for 44 and 43 yards respectively and included a marvelous TD reception in a tight coverage on a throw from Robert Griffin III. Gordon is just a snap of the fingers away from being suspended indefinitely, but for those considering him on draft day or those who already took a chance on him, your interest seems justified. And, how about Melvin Gordon for San Diego? He was written off in last week’s article, but scoffed at the critics with a 39-yard TD scamper this weekend. I’m still not bullish on his prospects over the course of the season, but it goes to show how different things can look from week-to-week in August.

8. We’re going to run and run until we can’t run anymore…

I’ve got to give credit again to a team that seems to know what they are and what they are not. TheTitans once again gave the rock early and often to their smashmouth duo of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry and the results were two rushing touchdowns and nearly 100 yards on 20 carries. The question remains, though: Will the Titans abandon this identity when they fall behind in games (which could be often)? I would submit that unless they’re playing one of the league’s truly elite teams, they’ll stick with the game plan even when trailing by a couple of touchdowns. They’ve clearly established a run-first pattern in the preseason. The split of carries will limit the individual values of each running back, but if one of the two were to miss time, the other’s value would rise as a favorite to get 20-plus carries a game. Fantasy owners shouldn’t be locked on to Tennessee as a source of fantasy gold at this point, but don’t sleep on them either.

9. We would like to run…but we can’t

As a team, the Colts ran the ball 18 times for 39 yards this past weekend. Things are looking so bleak they signed Stevan Ridley after the game to try to bolster one of the league’s weakest backfields to go along with one of the league’s weakest offensive lines. Their best offensive lineman (Jack Mewhort) sprained his knee vs. the Eagles and will likely miss the first month of the season. The Colts will be leaning heavily on Frank Gore, but unless you get points for RB carries, it may not mean much. Until the team can become more balanced offensively, defenses should be able to tee off on Andrew Luck and that means more injury risk and less upside for his wide receivers than most might think.

10. Ending on a positive note

Finally, there are a few players worth mentioning who are trending in the right direction coming into Labor Day Weekend redraft leagues. At quarterback, Kirk Cousins threw 3 second quarter TDs and looked every bit of the player from last December. At running back, Christine Michael (7-58) kept his preseason momentum going in the right direction with another strong performance, and at wide receiver, keep an eye on Stefon Diggs as the season begins. Diggs registered 5 catches for 71 yards and looks like the receiver to own in Minnesota. In addition, Will Fuller of Houston had another solid week, going for over 60 yards and a TD versus Arizona yesterday afternoon. Fuller’s emergence makes him a viable late-round flier and also raises the value of QB Brock Osweiler.

For those yet to draft, best wishes on your efforts this upcoming week/weekend!





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