The NFL got lucky this past weekend in that it got to showcase two
of the best regular season games I’ve seen in many a year
(Dallas-Pittsburgh and Seattle-New England). And, the fantasy implications
from both games dominate this week’s Buzz…
Ezekiel Elliott led all running backs in
Week 10 with over 200 yards combined and three touchdowns.
How Gronk vs. Graham Turned into Blount vs. Baldwin
The Jimmy Graham we saw a week ago (vs. Buffalo) was definitely
the Jimmy Graham of old and that set the stage for a retro top tight
end clash on Sunday night as Graham faced off with Gronk. Who would
score the most touchdowns? Would either top 100 yards receiving
in the game? As it turns out, the primary game plan for both defenses
was to stop the opponent’s main weapon, leaving Gronk and
Graham to combine for a mere 104 yards of receiving with no trips
to the end zone. Instead, the game script turned into a battle of
touchdowns between LeGarrette Blount (3 rushing TDs) and Doug Baldwin
(3 receiving TDs). Blount was likely on some benches due it being
a matchup with Seattle, but he shouldn’t have been. His dozen
touchdowns this season so far signify his need to be in lineups
every week due to goal line usage alone as well as his high volume
of carries in most fourth quarters. Baldwin’s performance
was reminiscent of 2015 when he was the hottest WR on the planet
in November and December. Are we set for a repeat of that this season?
Not likely with Graham healthy this year. Still, Wilson looks to
Baldwin in the red zone more than any other target and his stock
is definitely going up.
Big Yardage, No Paydirt (A Wide Receiver
Tale)
While Baldwin did indeed run up big TD totals on Sunday night, seven
other wide receivers went for 100-plus yards receiving, but did
not find the end zone. This band of seven included Davante Adams,
Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, Michael Floyd, Kenny Britt, DeVante
Parker, and Stefon Diggs (more on him later). Normally, only two
or three guys cross the 100-yard threshold without a TD per week,
but this week, it kept WR scoring modest despite ten 300-yard games
from quarterbacks. It just makes Baldwin's feat all the more impressive.
Which brings us to...
The Play
It was a fairly meaningless play in real-world football, but Ben
Roethlisberger's 44-yard pass to Antonio Brown on a play in which
the Cowboys basically conceded all yardage short of the goal line
won or lost a bunch of fantasy games. Particularly if your league
includes yardage bonuses for individual performance barriers. It's
funny how much yardage totals can be enhanced by garbage time things
that aren't really an indicator of how much was truly achieved in
the game. For me, this one play grabbed defeat out of the jaws of
victory. But, so it is sometimes with last second plays in the NFL.
It's why we won't stop watching even when the outcome isn't in doubt.
Every single play is part of the fantasy football script.
Ezekiel Equals Excellence
209 yards and 3 touchdowns. Those are RB numbers from an era gone
by...or they represent another day at the office for Dallas rookie
sensation, Ezekiel Elliott. It's becoming more apparent each and
every week that Elliott is the next great thing in fantasy football
and with the Cowboys able to work the ball downfield to Dez Bryant
(110-plus yards, 1 TD this week), Elliott should continue to be
an elite play week in and week out. Elliott's next opponent (Baltimore)
ranks No.1 in stopping the run, so the dominance that Elliott has
displayed for most of the season will be put to the test in Week
11. Still, it's hard to see an Elliott slow down given what the
Dallas offensive line is capable of and how fantastic he's been,
even against the most solid of defenses. Forgot Fantasy Football
Rookie of the Year. We may have found our most valuable player.
One Titanic Offense
These are not your older brother's Tennessee Titans. In fact, these
are Titans never before seen. Even back in the days of Steve McNair,
the offense was fairly vanilla in its makeup and execution. Enter
2016 where Marcus Mariota has now thrown for 17 touchdowns in his
last six games while rushing for nearly 200 yards on the ground
to go along with another 2 TDs. There were glimpses in the preseason
that suggested the Titans were going to be formidable on that side
of the ball and with DeMarco Murray and Delanie Walker both ranking
top three at their respective positions in scoring, it's becoming
clear that this offense is no fluke. There simply aren't many QBs
worth starting over Mariota at this point, and the future looks
especially rosy for Murray who runs against all bottom-five defenses
against the run the final four weeks of the season commonly known
as the fantasy football playoffs. When you think of productive,
fantasy-rich offensive units, the Titans have simply never come
to mind in the past. But, that's a past that is no longer relevant
to the present. It's an offense to hitch a wagon to coming down
the stretch.
The Curious Case of Stefon Diggs
Told you we'd come back to Diggs and here we are. This marks the
second year in a row that Diggs has looked like an elite receiver
some weeks and a nearly invisible one in others. Case in point:
Diggs averaged 8 catches for 143 yards a game during the first two
weeks of this season before dipping to less than 4 catches for 35
yards a game the next three. This Sunday, Diggs recorded his second
13 reception game in a row in a game that included a season-high
15 targets. Our conclusion is that Diggs could be a superstar with
consistent QB play. He clearly has the capacity to be Steve Smith
in his prime at the very least and now that the Vikings have found
him again, the question is can they keep getting him the ball. Considering
their defense has gone from devastatingly good to just good in recent
weeks and since they can't run the ball, expect Diggs to continue
to be a target monster and in turn, a fantasy football game changer.
Changing of the Guard at Running Back
Whereas the starting quarterbacks when the season began have basically
remained intact this season (with a few exceptions), new running
backs are now taking the reins each and every week. This week, the
Redskins officially benched Matt Jones giving way to Rob Kelley.
The Seahawks did the same with Christine Michael by giving primary
control of the backfield to C.J. Prosise. Kenneth Dixon is getting
worked into at least an even-split timeshare in Baltimore and Doug
Martin has officially returned in Tampa to seize his old job in
that setting. In all these situations, expectations should be tempered.
Kelley is untested and tends to only run what is blocked for him.
Prosise will soon be joined in the backfield by Thomas Rawls, creating
a firm committee with Michael likely to also still get a few touches.
And, Dixon has to prove that he can give the Ravens something on
first and second down that Terrance West cannot. So, while we're
seeing changes, they aren't earth shattering at this point. One
final note: the guard changing in Philly is now officially week-to-week
as Ryan Mathews returned from the dead this past weekend to post
139 yards and 2 TDs. Who saw that coming?
Robinson Re-Born While the Hopkins Fade
to Black Continues…
At the halfway point in the season, we chronicled the two most disappointing
wide receivers for 2016 thus far. Since that time (two weeks ago),
one has begun a resurgence and one simply put, has not. Over the
last three games, Jacksonville has targeted Allen
Robinson a whopping 39 times. And while, he's only hauled in
22 of those targets, his road back to respectability has already
been made apparent. The other WR identified as grossly under-performing
at mid-term was DeAndre
Hopkins and sadly, little has changed since. When your QB is
struggling to throw for more than 100 yards a game, everybody suffers.
Perhaps when Will
Fuller returns from injury, Houston can begin stretching the
field again, but we're not holding our breath. Whereas Robinson
looks much more like what he was in 2015 now, Hopkins appears to
simply be of one of the biggest busts of the current season. Rugged
QB play can't always be overcome.
Say it Ain't So, Alshon
Speaking of disappointing wide receivers, word leaked out yesterday
afternoon about the 4-game suspension of Alshon Jeffery for PED
use. While that's big news for Jeffery, the Bears, and the NFL,
fantasy owners would just like to know how it impacts the fantasy
value of those around him. The answer is that Cameron Meredith and
Eddie Royal will likely try to fill the void, but likely won't see
much of an uptick in production. Instead, look for Zach Miller to
become the primary recipient of whatever offense Chicago can muster
up from here on out. Also, they could just run the ball to death,
but Jordan Howard owners need to keep an eye on their guy this week
as his injury from Sunday might be more significant than what John
Fox let on.
Beating the Deadline
Most leagues are nearing trade deadlines and as such, we want to
finish this week's edition of the Buzz by naming three players you
should look to trade for at this juncture and three you should look
to unload. In the former category (trade for) we offer up Cam
Newton, Donte
Moncrief, and Eric
Ebron. In the latter (unload), Matt
Ryan, Ryan
Mathews, and Golden
Tate are the choices. Mathews in particular might draw more
than he's truly worth this week.
That's it for another edition of the Buzz. See you back here next
Tuesday…
