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Kirk Hollis | Archive | Email  
Staff Writer


Tuesday Morning Buzz
Fantasy Headlines from Week 10
11/15/16

The NFL got lucky this past weekend in that it got to showcase two of the best regular season games I’ve seen in many a year (Dallas-Pittsburgh and Seattle-New England). And, the fantasy implications from both games dominate this week’s Buzz…

Ezekiell Elliott

Ezekiel Elliott led all running backs in Week 10 with over 200 yards combined and three touchdowns.


How Gronk vs. Graham Turned into Blount vs. Baldwin


The Jimmy Graham we saw a week ago (vs. Buffalo) was definitely the Jimmy Graham of old and that set the stage for a retro top tight end clash on Sunday night as Graham faced off with Gronk. Who would score the most touchdowns? Would either top 100 yards receiving in the game? As it turns out, the primary game plan for both defenses was to stop the opponent’s main weapon, leaving Gronk and Graham to combine for a mere 104 yards of receiving with no trips to the end zone. Instead, the game script turned into a battle of touchdowns between LeGarrette Blount (3 rushing TDs) and Doug Baldwin (3 receiving TDs). Blount was likely on some benches due it being a matchup with Seattle, but he shouldn’t have been. His dozen touchdowns this season so far signify his need to be in lineups every week due to goal line usage alone as well as his high volume of carries in most fourth quarters. Baldwin’s performance was reminiscent of 2015 when he was the hottest WR on the planet in November and December. Are we set for a repeat of that this season? Not likely with Graham healthy this year. Still, Wilson looks to Baldwin in the red zone more than any other target and his stock is definitely going up.

Big Yardage, No Paydirt (A Wide Receiver Tale)

While Baldwin did indeed run up big TD totals on Sunday night, seven other wide receivers went for 100-plus yards receiving, but did not find the end zone. This band of seven included Davante Adams, Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, Michael Floyd, Kenny Britt, DeVante Parker, and Stefon Diggs (more on him later). Normally, only two or three guys cross the 100-yard threshold without a TD per week, but this week, it kept WR scoring modest despite ten 300-yard games from quarterbacks. It just makes Baldwin's feat all the more impressive. Which brings us to...

The Play

It was a fairly meaningless play in real-world football, but Ben Roethlisberger's 44-yard pass to Antonio Brown on a play in which the Cowboys basically conceded all yardage short of the goal line won or lost a bunch of fantasy games. Particularly if your league includes yardage bonuses for individual performance barriers. It's funny how much yardage totals can be enhanced by garbage time things that aren't really an indicator of how much was truly achieved in the game. For me, this one play grabbed defeat out of the jaws of victory. But, so it is sometimes with last second plays in the NFL. It's why we won't stop watching even when the outcome isn't in doubt. Every single play is part of the fantasy football script.

Ezekiel Equals Excellence

209 yards and 3 touchdowns. Those are RB numbers from an era gone by...or they represent another day at the office for Dallas rookie sensation, Ezekiel Elliott. It's becoming more apparent each and every week that Elliott is the next great thing in fantasy football and with the Cowboys able to work the ball downfield to Dez Bryant (110-plus yards, 1 TD this week), Elliott should continue to be an elite play week in and week out. Elliott's next opponent (Baltimore) ranks No.1 in stopping the run, so the dominance that Elliott has displayed for most of the season will be put to the test in Week 11. Still, it's hard to see an Elliott slow down given what the Dallas offensive line is capable of and how fantastic he's been, even against the most solid of defenses. Forgot Fantasy Football Rookie of the Year. We may have found our most valuable player.

One Titanic Offense

These are not your older brother's Tennessee Titans. In fact, these are Titans never before seen. Even back in the days of Steve McNair, the offense was fairly vanilla in its makeup and execution. Enter 2016 where Marcus Mariota has now thrown for 17 touchdowns in his last six games while rushing for nearly 200 yards on the ground to go along with another 2 TDs. There were glimpses in the preseason that suggested the Titans were going to be formidable on that side of the ball and with DeMarco Murray and Delanie Walker both ranking top three at their respective positions in scoring, it's becoming clear that this offense is no fluke. There simply aren't many QBs worth starting over Mariota at this point, and the future looks especially rosy for Murray who runs against all bottom-five defenses against the run the final four weeks of the season commonly known as the fantasy football playoffs. When you think of productive, fantasy-rich offensive units, the Titans have simply never come to mind in the past. But, that's a past that is no longer relevant to the present. It's an offense to hitch a wagon to coming down the stretch.

The Curious Case of Stefon Diggs

Told you we'd come back to Diggs and here we are. This marks the second year in a row that Diggs has looked like an elite receiver some weeks and a nearly invisible one in others. Case in point: Diggs averaged 8 catches for 143 yards a game during the first two weeks of this season before dipping to less than 4 catches for 35 yards a game the next three. This Sunday, Diggs recorded his second 13 reception game in a row in a game that included a season-high 15 targets. Our conclusion is that Diggs could be a superstar with consistent QB play. He clearly has the capacity to be Steve Smith in his prime at the very least and now that the Vikings have found him again, the question is can they keep getting him the ball. Considering their defense has gone from devastatingly good to just good in recent weeks and since they can't run the ball, expect Diggs to continue to be a target monster and in turn, a fantasy football game changer.

Changing of the Guard at Running Back

Whereas the starting quarterbacks when the season began have basically remained intact this season (with a few exceptions), new running backs are now taking the reins each and every week. This week, the Redskins officially benched Matt Jones giving way to Rob Kelley. The Seahawks did the same with Christine Michael by giving primary control of the backfield to C.J. Prosise. Kenneth Dixon is getting worked into at least an even-split timeshare in Baltimore and Doug Martin has officially returned in Tampa to seize his old job in that setting. In all these situations, expectations should be tempered. Kelley is untested and tends to only run what is blocked for him. Prosise will soon be joined in the backfield by Thomas Rawls, creating a firm committee with Michael likely to also still get a few touches. And, Dixon has to prove that he can give the Ravens something on first and second down that Terrance West cannot. So, while we're seeing changes, they aren't earth shattering at this point. One final note: the guard changing in Philly is now officially week-to-week as Ryan Mathews returned from the dead this past weekend to post 139 yards and 2 TDs. Who saw that coming?

Robinson Re-Born While the Hopkins Fade to Black Continues…

At the halfway point in the season, we chronicled the two most disappointing wide receivers for 2016 thus far. Since that time (two weeks ago), one has begun a resurgence and one simply put, has not. Over the last three games, Jacksonville has targeted Allen Robinson a whopping 39 times. And while, he's only hauled in 22 of those targets, his road back to respectability has already been made apparent. The other WR identified as grossly under-performing at mid-term was DeAndre Hopkins and sadly, little has changed since. When your QB is struggling to throw for more than 100 yards a game, everybody suffers. Perhaps when Will Fuller returns from injury, Houston can begin stretching the field again, but we're not holding our breath. Whereas Robinson looks much more like what he was in 2015 now, Hopkins appears to simply be of one of the biggest busts of the current season. Rugged QB play can't always be overcome.

Say it Ain't So, Alshon

Speaking of disappointing wide receivers, word leaked out yesterday afternoon about the 4-game suspension of Alshon Jeffery for PED use. While that's big news for Jeffery, the Bears, and the NFL, fantasy owners would just like to know how it impacts the fantasy value of those around him. The answer is that Cameron Meredith and Eddie Royal will likely try to fill the void, but likely won't see much of an uptick in production. Instead, look for Zach Miller to become the primary recipient of whatever offense Chicago can muster up from here on out. Also, they could just run the ball to death, but Jordan Howard owners need to keep an eye on their guy this week as his injury from Sunday might be more significant than what John Fox let on.

Beating the Deadline

Most leagues are nearing trade deadlines and as such, we want to finish this week's edition of the Buzz by naming three players you should look to trade for at this juncture and three you should look to unload. In the former category (trade for) we offer up Cam Newton, Donte Moncrief, and Eric Ebron. In the latter (unload), Matt Ryan, Ryan Mathews, and Golden Tate are the choices. Mathews in particular might draw more than he's truly worth this week.

That's it for another edition of the Buzz. See you back here next Tuesday…