Thanks to a high rate of
busts and top-ten
running backs underperforming, many fantasy league champions
were crowned last season without having a dynamic rushing attack
including the champion in the league I covet most. His top running
back was Latavius Murray, a player sporting and ADP of Round 3 (RB15)
in standard redraft leagues. Last season’s failure of the
top running backs have only added fuel to the “Zero-RB”
fire and as drafting season begins to heat up, it’s clear
many owners are employing this strategy, especially in PPR leagues.
So, let’s examine the validity of the “Zero RB”
approach for 2016 and give some insight as to how a roster might
unfold utilizing the strategy.
Why Zero RB?
Two factors have impacted the shift of fantasy football redraft
leagues from being RB-dominant in the early rounds to being WR-heavy.
These have been well documented, but are worth mentioning again
here as a means of providing context. The first is the NFL’s pass-happy
trend and less actual running of the football. When teams want to
gain 4-7 yards on first down, they will often employ short, quick
passes as opposed to running their ball-carrier up the middle. Consider
that only one running back (Adrian
Peterson) ran the ball more than 300 times last season while
just five seasons prior (2010), that number was eight. Teams are
simply running less and throwing more. Secondly, more teams are
employing the dreaded “committee” approach to gaining yards on the
ground. Much like baseball puts pitchers on a pitch count, many
NFL coaches and coordinators now limit carries for their top running
backs.
The impact is that the RB has been de-valued as a position and this
appears to be a trend with some staying power. In addition, the
tiers at which production drops off are larger than they used to
be, meaning that you can find value much later in the draft. Will
that RB42 you drafted in Round 9 end up being a gem like Devonta
Freeman was last season? (Yes, that was his ADP). Possibly.
But, more likely is the possibility that your receiving corps will
be so strong that finding a dynamic runner simply isn’t necessary
for success. Exhibit A for that theory will be the focal point of
the remainder of this article.
As Jason Mitchell did last
season, I’m going to use the latest ADP data from fantasyfootballcalculator.com
and choose from players available each round. I will make selections
from the sixth position so I’m picking about halfway through each
round. In the early rounds, I will be using FFToday’s PPR projections
as a point of reference for my picks. In the later rounds of the
draft, I will be taking more risk, giving opportunity, upside/downside
greater consideration. Let’s assume a starting lineup for this league
calls for one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers,
one tight end, one FLEX player, one defense and one kicker.
The primary pieces are put in place by taking two top WRs to begin
the draft so you’ll have an advantage on the majority of your
league foes at the position. Hopkins is a budding (but underpaid)
superstar and Allen has the potential to be a PPR monster. Allen’s
value isn’t quite this high in non-PPR leagues, so players
like Mike Evans, Alshon Jeffery, or Brandon Marshall might make
sense in that format. Whatever the case, establish your foundation
as being on the “right side of history”, as they say.
The days of the stud RB, are gone, gone, gone…
A third fantasy wide receiver on a historically good passing team
is an easy call. Cobb rounds out my starting lineup with a player
whose numbers are going to be more consistent from week-to-week
given the talent of the quarterback. Another player with a top QB
that fits this description might be T.Y.
Hilton. In the fourth round, a tight end with Reed’s skills
is simply too hard to pass up. There’s no need to reach for a RB
here when you can add a consensus top-3 pick at another primary
position.
PPR Gem: The Browns Duke Johnson is a favorite
target in the middle rounds for the Zero-RB crowd.
In theory, you could easily wait until Round 6 to finally claim
a running back, but getting a high-upside PPR gem like Johnson,
is the kind of player you want to target using the Zero-RB approach.
Parker also has upside, which is something I begin to weigh more
heavily once I’ve solidified the projected starters for my squad.
With these two picks, you can work in a second RB- preferably
one who is team’s first option at the position even if that facet
of the offense isn’t their strength. Frank
Gore, Justin
Forsett, and Melvin
Gordon stand out as other possible options at this point in
draft. This is also a good time to start thinking about the QB
position and Bortles’ upside makes him a salty pick here. Maybe
you prefer a veteran like Eli
Manning or Carson
Palmer? They will be available too.
The temptation here is to begin frantically filling up the remaining
spots with running backs, but you can afford to be patient. Look
for good values to plug in at the FLEX position or upside picks
based on potential. This is ultimately a great time of the draft
to look at rookies. Treadwell fits under that umbrella, while
Barnidge represents a FLEX option coming off a successful season
of 1,000-plus yards and 9 TDs.
Don’t wait until Round 13 to begin adding depth to the
RB position or you’ll miss out these rookies with promise.
Both Dixon and Washington could end up stealing plenty of carries
from starters Forsett and Murray, but both also could figure prominently
in the passing game beginning Week 1. Even if only one of these
two picks pans out, you’ve solidified your backfield in
addition to having one of the best receiving groups in your league.
Time for your second QB to go along with a RB whose upside is
low, but whose PPR track record is proven. After taking two rookies
as your third and fourth RBs, I think drafting a no-frills veteran
is a good idea to round out the position. Darren
Sproles or James
Starks could also be good options here.
Now, if you would, slip on your PPR-colored glasses and look at
the roster above. On the surface, you don’t see any big-name running
backs or a quarterback with a historical track record of finishing
in the top-five. What you have instead, is a team that is stacked
at the positions that truly matter most in this modern era - the
ones that catch the most passes.
These were conservative estimates of who might be available in
each round of the draft. It’s possible you could improve on players
like Keenan
Allen or Randall
Cobb with a wide receiver who inexplicably slips too far.
Then, you’ve got a juggernaut all because too many of your peers
failed to adapt to the new reality in the NFL.
Any fantasy football analyst worth squat is going to remind you
not to be totally “married’ to any one strategy on draft day.
This article, thus, is not meant to suggest that the Zero RB theory
should be carried out no matter what. The objective has been to
ease your fears about what such a strategy might look like and
how it could translate into a formula for success. I would encourage
you to factor it into your preparation and if the flow of the
draft dictates its use, go for it! You’ll be operating on the
right side of history if you do.
