Oh, what an ugly year 2015 was for
highly-ranked running backs.
Building off Jason
Mitchell’s Bust Rates column from last year, let’s
update the numbers and apply them to our player evaluation for
the upcoming drafting season.
However, before we dive into the numbers lets discuss the term
“bust” because I don’t agree with the original premise that a
running back drafted in the top-12 at his position, who finished
as low as 36th, is somehow not a bust.
Take Broncos running back C.J.
Anderson, for instance. He was the sixth back off the board
with an overall ADP of 7.8. He rushed for 720 yards, caught 25
balls for 183 yards and scored five times. Anderson’s 120.3 fantasy
points in standard leagues left him in 27th-place among backs
behind such names as Charles
Sims, James
Starks, Jeremy
Langford and Thomas
Rawls. All four of those guys started the season on their
team’s depth chart as a backup.
Don’t tell me the fantasy owners who drafted Anderson seventh
overall didn’t think their first-round draft choice was a bust!
I won’t be as generous in my analysis this season. To avoid the
“bust” label, a top-12 preseason running back will have to at
least be able to start at his position. Since most leagues require
two running backs I’ll use top-24 to avoid the disappointing moniker.
The argument was made that the No. 25-ranked RB would be a flex-position
starter, but that isn’t always true. He’d might be a flex starter,
but only if he was better than the best non-starter at wide receiver
or tight end. And in leagues which allow a second QB to start
at the flex position, he’s likely useless except during bye weeks.
So for my updated data covering the five-year period from 2011-15,
a bust RB or WR is anyone who didn’t finish in the top-24.
Running Backs
Preseason ADP RB1s:
2011-2015
League Type
Total
Top 12 Rk
Top 12 %
Top 24 Rk
Top 24 %
Busts
Bust %
Standard 2011-14
47*
26
55.3%
34
72.3%
13
27.7%
Standard 2015
12
3
25.0%
7
58.3%
5
41.7%
Standard 2011-15
59
29
49.2%
41
69.5%
18
30.5%
Preseason ADP RB1s:
2011-2015
League Type
Total
Top 12 Rk
Top 12 %
Top 24 Rk
Top 24 %
Busts
Bust %
PPR 2011-14
47*
26
55.3%
35
72.3%
12
25.5%
PPR 2015
12
3
25.0%
6
58.3%
6
50.0%
PPR 2011-15
59
29
49.2%
41
69.5%
18
30.5%
*Adrian Peterson’s 2014 season removed
Wide Receivers
Preseason ADP WR1s:
2011-2015
League Type
Total
Top 12 Rk
Top 12 %
Top 24 Rk
Top 24 %
Busts
Bust %
Standard 2011-14
48
26
54.2%
33
68.8%
15
31.2%
Standard 2015
12
6
50.0%
9
75.0%
3
25.0%
Standard 2011-15
60
32
53.3%
42
70.0%
18
30.0%
Preseason ADP WR1s:
2011-2015
League Type
Total
Top 12 Rk
Top 12 %
Top 24 Rk
Top 24 %
Busts
Bust %
PPR 2011-14
48
26
54.2%
34
70.8%
14
29.2%
PPR 2015
12
6
50.0%
9
75.0%
3
25.0%
PPR 2011-15
60
32
53.3%
43
71.7%
17
28.3%
As you can see there is almost no difference between a preseason
top-12 running back and top-12 wide receiver over the past five
seasons. Approximately 30 percent of your selections won’t
put up starter value … even low-end starter value.
Which means seven players, currently held in high esteem, are likely
to frustrate you, cause you to curse under your breath, and maybe
even end up trading him for cents-on-the dollar. Using Fantasy Football
Calculator’s ADP as my guide, it means that seven players
on the following list are going to be a bust in 2016:
The million dollar question, of course, is “Which seven?”
If I could guarantee the correct answer, I’d probably also
have been able to pick the winning lottery numbers to last week’s
$540 million Mega Millions Lottery. Since I’m here writing,
instead of lying on the beach of my newly-purchased private island,
you should assume I’m not clairvoyant. Most of the top stars
end up being a bust due to injuries and that’s nearly impossible
to predict. But sometimes it’s performance and it is there
that I’ll make my “educated guess” as to who might
disappoint.
After busting out last season, another
down year from Bell would send his owners off the deep end.
Bell (MCL/PCL) said he expected to be back for training camp, but
I’ll bet my last dollar you won’t see him against live defenders
until opening night … at the earliest. The real issue however, is
that DeAngelo
Williams played so well last season (907 yds rushing, 367 yds
rec, 11 TDs) that the Steelers brain trust could decide to go conservative.
They could give Williams a larger portion of the workload. They
could even delay Bell’s return. With Bell listed as the No. 2 guy
off the board at Fantasy Football Calculator (behind teammate Brown),
that could be a fantasy owner’s worst nightmare.
Johnson produced monster numbers over the second half of 2015 and
will be the “man” in the Cardinals backfield, but it’s
always scary to depend on a player with so little experience. Plus,
the Arizona backfield has talent in it besides Johnson in former
starter Andre Ellington and former 2,000-yard rusher Chris Johnson.
A local sports reporter said he though Johnson would see just “60
percent of the backfield touches” which is a bit concerning.
Freeman was a first-half monster last season, posting 1,062 yards
from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns in the first eight games. However,
he tired badly in the second half producing just 572 yards and four
scores over the final seven games. For that reason the team is expected
to use Tevin Coleman a lot more in 2016 and that spells bad news
for Freeman owners, because Coleman has talent.
Rawls was in the midst of a huge season when he broke an ankle and
suffered ligament damage ending his season and requiring surgery.
In the six games he saw double-digit rushing attempts he averaged
118 yards and 1.5 TDs per contest. If healthy he should be the starter,
but its likely fantasy owners won’t see him at all during
preseason. The team did draft talented C.J. Prosise and resigned
Christine Michael just in case. Those who draft close to Opening
Day will have a better idea of Rawls’ availability, but Prosise
should be the team’s third-down back and at 6-feet-1, 225
lbs., maybe more.
I love Hopkins, so this is nothing against the star wideout. I’m
concerned more about the man throwing him the pigskin, Brock Osweiler.
Just think how disappointing Demaryius Thomas was for his owners
last season. With Osweiler under center, Thomas cracked 100-yards
just once in eight games. Even with an over-the-hill and injured
Peyton Manning, Thomas earned the yardage bonus three times. Project
that forward to 2016 and Hopkins as his receiver and it’s
a bit worrisome when picking Hopkins eighth overall.
It appears that Jeffery and the Bears aren’t on the same page
concerning his contract and that makes for a problem. An unhappy
receiver isn’t usually a productive receiver. An unhappy receiver
could be an ex-Bear if the team decides to make a change and a new
team means learning a new offense and getting used to another quarterback.
Speaking of QBs, what will Jay Cutler do without his old OC, Adam
Gase, who is now the head coach in Miami? Will John Fox and new
OC Dowell Loggains throw the ball as often? Can Jeffery, who only
started eight games stay healthy? All legitimate questions.
A lacerated kidney cut short what was going to be a great season
for Allen (67-725-4 in 8 games). But the Chargers realized they
needed more receiving help even before that. The team has brought
in a quality wideout in Travis
Benjamin (68-966-5 in Cleveland) and Stevie
Johnson should be healthy. Add in Antonio
Gates and Danny Woodhead and that’s a lot of mouths to feed
for quarterback Philip
Rivers.
Steve Schwarz served as the fantasy sports editor of The Sports Network and is the 2014 FSWA Football Writer of the Year.
