A couple weeks back, we chatted about some quarterbacks,
running backs, and wide
receivers that could topple from the ranks of the fantasy Top
10 this coming season. We’ll shift our focus this week to
the players who look like good bets to replace them.
Note: All
rankings are based on FFToday’s default standard scoring.
A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy WRs from last season…
An unfocused Thomas with bad QB play finished
as the WR13 last season. He's undervalued in 2016.
Wide Receivers Most Likely to Rise in
2016:
Demaryius
Thomas, DEN: It’s hard to believe Thomas was outside
the top 10 looking in after consecutive seasons of top 5-caliber
digits (2013 and 2014), especially when you consider his squad actually
broke through and won Super Bowl gold. Did he sacrifice individual
success for the good of his team? Well, that would make for a great
narrative but it’s not even remotely true. Thomas took an individual
step back last season not because his team needed him to, but because
his battery mate, Peyton
Manning, was a shadow of his former self and couldn’t consistently
throw the ball where his rangy wide receiver likes it, way down
the field.
The venerable Manning has now ridden off into the sunset, of course,
and the Broncos will turn the offense over to either Mark
Sanchez (most likely), Trevor
Siemian (less likely), or rookie Paxton
Lynch (not likely). Astonishingly, that will be an upgrade over
the future Hall of Famer (by a lot). In eight games with Manning
at the controls, Thomas averaged a respectable but disappointing
10.1 FPts/G. With Brock
Osweiler running the show, he jumped up to 10.7 points per game.
That’s not a huge bump, granted, but look what happened when Manning
returned for the playoffs: Thomas scored 6.0 points the rest of
the way. That’s two playoff games and Super Bowl 50, folks.
The Sanchise doesn’t exactly instill confidence in Denver,
I’m guessing, after years of mostly unfulfilled physical promise
in New York and then Philly. That physical promise, however, is
very real. He possesses great arm strength and some mobility the
elder Manning never had and could thrive working with a legit wide
receiver stud. My guess is he won’t lead Denver back to glory,
but should lead facilitate Thomas’ return to the Top 10.
Golden
Tate, DET: It’s been awhile since Tate raised the Shot
Caller’s ire by “hauling in” a game-winning Hail Mary against the
Pack on MNF and then lying about it in post-game interviews. I swore
at the time I’d never speak his name in print again, but…well, you
know. Time heals most wounds and I don’t hold grudges forever. Besides,
Tate got what was coming to him in the end, shoving off for Detroit
after earning a Super Bowl ring, basically ensuring he’ll never
own another. Oh, and guess who got to stand helplessly by and watch
as Aaron
Rodgers finally returned that karmic “Fail Mary” favor last
season in Week 13?
Anyway, I said I wouldn’t hold a grudge and here’s proof:
I think Tate has a chance, now that Megatron has suddenly upped
and retired, to propel himself into Top 10 wide receiver contention.
Consider: When Johnson missed several games in his penultimate season,
2013, all Tate did was step into the breach and throw up two 21-plus-point
fantasy efforts, his best performances in a Lions uniform…and
two of his best three performances in ANY uniform. That’s
a very small sample size, I’m aware, but it shows he’s
comfortable in the WR1 role. Defenses knew he was the guy to shut
down in those contests and they weren’t able to do it. It’s
not like he shone only when Johnson was hobbled, by the way. His
totals for the entire 2013 season? 99 receptions, 1,331 yards, and
four scores. That was good for 13th overall at the position that
year.
Golden Tate won’t make people forget about Calvin Johnson.
He does have a chance, however, to carve his own legacy as new No.1
option for the Detroit Lions and surprise Top 10 member.
Michael
Floyd, ARI: There will be massive turnover and a potential
Super Bowl hangover in Denver. There will be stars temporarily or
permanently M.I.A. in Charlotte, Foxboro, and Pittsburgh. There
will be more questions than answers in Minneapolis and Green Bay,
it seems. That leaves, by my estimation, just two teams standing
tall as odds-on favorites to reach Super Bowl LI in Houston come
next February: Seattle and Arizona. Of the two, I think the Cardinals
most resemble the team to beat.
It sure wouldn’t hurt their cause if Floyd actually lived up to
his (seemingly annual) billing as “next big thing” at the wide receiver
position. 2015 could have been the year, but the former Golden Domer
suffered some dislocated fingers during training camp and took a
painfully long time to get going. In his five least productive outings,
Floyd averaged a horrific 1.5 FPts/G. In his five most productive,
he dominated to the tune of 16.5 FPts/G. For context, Bruce
Ellington averaged 1.5 points per last season and Antonio
Brown 15.4. When the goalposts are Bruce Ellington and Antonio
Brown, you know your production could stand to be a tad more consistent.
So why is 2016 the year he finally breaks through and accepts the
baton from Larry Fitzgerald in the desert? I’m not sure it
is, but he’s big, athletic, tough, and fast enough. If he
can stay healthy, he’s more than gifted enough to (finally)
justify those breakout predictions. Yes, there are lots of mouths
for Carson Palmer to feed (the aforementioned Fitz, John Brown,
and even David Johnson), but that cuts both ways. Floyd will rarely
face double-coverage and is already a load one-on-one. If the Cards
indeed hoist the hardware, he could be a major reason why and he’s
still a relative bargain (ADP WR25).
