A couple weeks back, we chatted about some quarterbacks,
running backs, and wide
receivers that could topple from the ranks of the fantasy Top
10 this coming season. We’ll shift our focus this week to
the players who look like good bets to replace them.
Note: All
rankings are based on FFToday’s default standard scoring.
A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy RBs from last season…
Ezekiel
Elliott, DAL: “Zeeeeeeeke!” I can still hear Buckeye
fans chanting Elliott’s name while he and his teammates pounded
Mariota’s and my hapless Ducks in the 2015 CFP National Championship
game. And though it was difficult to appreciate his extensive talents
that night in Big D, now that he’s moved on to the bigs, I’m officially
excited about his fantasy future. Apparently, that doesn’t make
me unique. Elliott’s not only getting plugged as a potential top-flight
option at running back, he’s even getting support in some circles
as the No.1 overall pick!
Before that bandwagon starts hurtling too far down the road, let’s
get something straight: No running back should be drafted No.1 overall
these days IMHO, especially in PPR leagues. They’re too vulnerable
to injury, rely too much on quality blocking, and simply aren’t
the offensive centerpieces they used to be. However, I think a case
could certainly be made for Elliott meriting the top overall ranking
at his position. He’s got uncommon burst, balance, and vision. He’s
playing behind the best offensive line in football and with one
of the better batteries in the game (Tony
Romo and Dez
Bryant). He’s a terrific blocker in his own right and, when
he’s not blocking, is also an accomplished pass-grabber. In short,
he’s a stud who’s joined an already great offense and there’s basically
no reason he’ll come off the field unless he gets injured or needs
a blow.
Oh, you’re worried about those ZERO professional carries? Are you
forgetting last year’s prized rookie rock-toter, Todd Gurley, finished
fifth overall at the position despite missing three full games?
Elliott’s younger (21) than most No.1 overall RB’s have historically
been, but not by a wide margin (average 25 since 2009). I think
he’s likely to take the fantasy world by storm, as expected.
RBs are scarce: Eddie Lacy's season to
forget has cost him a little over one round of ADP in 2016.
Eddie
Lacy, GB: Early in the 3rd quarter of last year’s NFC
Divisional Playoff against Arizona, Lacy collected a handoff from
Aaron
Rodgers and rumbled 61 yards for a huge Packers first down,
setting up a go-ahead score. It was by far his biggest contribution
of the day and yet, sadly, also epitomized his hugely disappointing
2015 season (emphasis on the “hugely”). You see, by the end of the
run, Lacy looked more like B.J.
Raji running out of gas on a potential scoop-and-score than
the punch-packing, multi-talented Green Bay meal ticket we’d come
to know and love.
Coach McCarthy wasted no time calling his beefy ball carrier out
once the season had ended and also took out some insurance by re-signing
Lacy’s backup, James Starks, to a two-year, $6 million deal.
Message officially delivered. Lacy responded by hiring Tony Horton
of P90X fame, dropping a whole bunch of LBs, and showing up to training
camp ready to put his nightmarish 2015 season behind him. Message
officially received.
Only time will tell if Lacy can stay committed to his trimmer figure
and lock down his old job as the Pack’s RB1, but here’s
the thing: Even if we’re conservative and assume he can only
get halfway back to previous heights (roughly 250 more yards and
four more scores, say), he’d be looking at about 1,200 total
yards and nine scores. That would put him in the neighborhood of
175 fantasy points, which would have been good for 9th overall last
season. If you needed more proof the running back spot is in steady
decline, look no further than Lacy. Despite horribly underperforming
expectations and ticking off his coach in the process, he still
ended up being a borderline RB2 in most leagues. Capitalize on his
bounce-back effort this year.
Carlos
Hyde, SF: I tagged Hyde in this exact same spot last
August, the third of three running back risers, and he started
out the season by making me look pretty good. In his first game
against a tough Minnesota defense, the other Buckeye product ripped
off 168 rushing yards and two scores for a stellar 30.2 fantasy
points. Naturally, he never came close to doing that again and then
ended up on the shelf after suffering a stress fracture in his foot
during a Week 7 loss to Seattle.
I’m stubborn, in case you haven’t noticed, so I’m
going right back to the well as we get set to open the 2016 season.
Why? The Niners have wisely moved on from the Jim Tomsula experiment
(predictable verdict: abject failure) and have instead hired embattled
NFL iconoclast Charles “Chip” Kelly, formerly of the
Eagles. Chipper was run out of Philly on a rail after his team basically
mutinied halfway through the year, and pundits now openly question
whether he’s more idiot savant (emphasis on that “idiot”
part in Pennsylvania) than offensive mastermind. To be fair, some
of that criticism/skepticism is richly deserved. Kelly’s an
iffy manager of professional egos and his personnel decisions, especially
the splashy ones (DeMarco Murray) proved disastrous. Then again,
he did guide the Eagles offense to two top-5 statistical finishes
and even turned out a 12th-ranked outfit in 2015 when the wheels
came off. I don’t need to remind you who he used at quarterback.
Obviously, the Niners lack quality options at QB too, but at least
Blaine
Gabbert or Colin
Kaepernick will have the sturdy, explosive Hyde to rely upon.
If healthy, he might represent a perfect marriage of Kelly’s last
two bell cows, the speedy/shifty LeSean
McCoy, and the larger, more powerful Murray.
