A couple weeks back, we chatted about some quarterbacks,
running backs, and wide
receivers that could topple from the ranks of the fantasy Top
10 this coming season. We’ll shift our focus this week to
the players who look like good bets to replace them.
Note: All
rankings are based on FFToday’s default standard scoring.
A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy QBs from last season…
Derek
Carr, OAK: I was a disappointing 2-for-9 in this
space last August – only Cam
Newton and Adrian
Peterson made the predicted Top 10 jump – so I should probably
play it safe and nominate three established studs primed for a 2016
rebound: Aaron
Rodgers, Ben
Roethlisberger, and Andrew
Luck. I SHOULD but you already know I won’t. What fun would
that be? Besides, if 2015 is any indication (six dropouts), there
could be several more signal callers crashing the party this season.
Derek “Don’t Call Me David” Carr looks to be the
most likely of these other potential party crashers. His breakout
2015 campaign (3,987 yards, 32 TDs, and 341.2 FPts) gave long-suffering
Raiders fans a reason to get excited about football in the East
Bay…until Oakland ownership swiftly squelched that optimism
with talk of moving the franchise to Vegas. You take the good with
the bad when you root for the Silver and Black, right? Carr provided
much more of the former than the latter last season, throwing for
multiple TDs in 11 games and three or more in 5 of them. If he’d
avoided a premature exit against Cincinnati in the opener (just
3.9 FPts prior to a bruised thumb), we probably wouldn’t be
talking about him here.
The Raiders’ brass rode this swell of optimism into the off-season
and added a couple offensive pieces that should complement their
studly young slinger. First, they spent $60 million to lure Kelechi
Osemele away from Baltimore, a versatile G/T who will help keep
Carr’s jersey clean. Second, they drafted DeAndre
Washington, a Texas Tech RB/dynamo who will diversify the offense,
especially on third down. Throw in Amari
Cooper, Latavius
Murray, and Clive
Walford, as existing young weapons, and Carr seems to have the
talent in place to really wow in 2016.
Ryan Tannehill's low-end QB1 ceiling could
get a boost from new head coach Adam Gase.
Ryan
Tannehill, MIA: Quarterback whisperer/offensive wunderkind
du jour, Adam Gase, has moved on from Chicago to South Florida and
instantly becomes the NFL’s youngest head man. Many believe he’ll
be able to correct the course of Tannehill’s wayward career, just
as he did for Jay
Cutler in the Windy City. Others believe there’s no fixing what’s
wrong with Miami’s $77 million dollar man and that the Fish will
continue floating around in a sea of mediocrity. I guess you could
say I’m somewhere between the Gase fanboys and Miko Grimes, believing
Tannehill to be an average QB who could nevertheless perform at
an above-average level with the proper tutelage.
Let’s start with the defects. He holds onto the ball too long
and doesn’t demonstrate good pocket awareness. He’s
not all that accurate when he finally lets it fly and is especially
iffy when throwing the ball deep. He allegedly lacks some basic
leadership qualities and hasn’t commanded the respect of all
his Miami teammates. Wait, I’m supposed to be making a case
for him as a Top 10 QB, right?
Obvious warts notwithstanding, Tannehill is an exceptional athlete
for the position and is one of the only players I know who’s
successfully made the transition from college wide receiver to starting
NFL quarterback. He’s averaged over 20 FPts/G three years
running, moreover, despite working with three different offensive
coordinators in four years. Clyde Christensen will be his fourth
and early word out of Dolphins camp is that Tannehill’s being
allowed to do something he hasn’t thus far in his career:
audible at the line. That freedom, an emphasis on getting the ball
out quick (a trademark of Gase’s offenses), and a healthy
DeVante Parker could all help the fifth-year QB get his career pointed
in the right direction.
Jameis
Winston, TB or Marcus
Mariota, TEN: Like most headstrong and highly opinionated
individuals, I don’t like admitting I’m wrong. Wrong I was, however,
about Jameis Winston’s rookie season. I told you before it started
the Bucs had picked the wrong Heisman winner in the 2015 draft and
that the former Duck (GO DUCKS!) would outperform him. Statistically
speaking, at least, that proved completely false as he outscored
his Rose Bowl nemesis by almost 100 fantasy points. Big swing and
a miss, right?
Actually, I may have foul-tipped that baby. Super Mariota’s
promising debut campaign was spoiled by injury, of course, and the
two rooks tracked pretty closely on a points-per-game basis. Winston
ended up averaging 21.7 per contest (throwing every single Buccaneers
pass) while Tennessee’s new triggerman averaged 21.2. If you
take out his significantly shortened Week 15 appearance, though
(just six pass attempts), Marcus actually averaged closer to 23
points per tilt, precisely what Eli Manning, the 10th most productive
QB, averaged on the year. Hmmm.
Winston could still validate my low expectations and turn into Josh
Freeman 2.0, sure. Mariota could, similarly, get hurt again
or simply regress in his second season guiding Mike Mularkey’s “exotic
smashmouth” attack (whatever that is). I just don’t think either
of those two scenarios are very likely. In fact, I’m betting at
least one of the two cracks the ranks of the Top 10 in his sophomore
season, hence this joint, hedge-my-bets recommendation. Winston
showed up to camp looking leaner and meaner and should build on
his impressive rookie totals. Mariota should do the same now that
Tennessee’s shot callers have invested heavily in some offensive
pieces (DeMarco
Murray, Derrick
Henry, and Jack Conklin) to help him out. These guys ooze upside
and the price is affordable so go get ‘em.
