Nobody needs to be told starting
Russell Wilson, Todd Gurley, or Antonio Brown is a good idea.
Duh, right? You can’t have studs at every position, though,
unless you’re in the shallowest of leagues. This is where
the Shot Caller comes in. Need help deciding which bargain basement
QB to use and which to ignore on Wilson’s bye week? Let’s
talk. Looking for solutions at running back because Gurley is
a game-time decision? Look no further. Need to know which of your
unproven targets to start and which to sit since you ignored Brown
and went RB-RB-Gronk in your first three rounds? You get the idea.
Past results may not guarantee future success, but ignoring them
entirely can ruin your Sundays in a hurry (maybe even your Mondays
and Thursdays). Read on for a little history and, hopefully, a
little sage advice.
Note: Fantasy points
based on FF Today’s standard scoring system.
Bye Weeks: N/A
Matt Ryan has topped 300 yards three times
and thrown 9 TDs in last four games against the Panthers.
Grab a Helmet
Matt
Ryan v. CAR: Can Super Bowl hangovers last more than
one season? Matty Ice and his Falcons haven’t looked right ever
since that Super Bowl LI debacle against the Patriots despite fielding
pretty much the same personnel last season and to start this one.
Ryan’s statistical decline has been across the board (touchdowns,
yards-per-attempt, passer rating) and he’d seemingly need a map
to find Julio Jones in the red zone at this point. Newish offensive
coordinator, Steve Sarkisian, may ultimately end up the fall guy,
but great QBs overcome coaching deficiencies and other such obstacles
to get the job done. The good news if you were banking on Ryan to
return to his 2016 MVP form? He’s been great against this Sunday’s
opponent, Carolina, despite the general swoon (27.6 pts/game since
2016). Expect this recent series history and the extra three days
of prep to pay dividends this weekend.
Ben
Roethlisberger v. KC: James Conner’s spot-on Le’Veon
Bell impression likely emboldened Pittsburgh’s shot callers (and
weakened Bell’s negotiating position), but it didn’t seem to have
the same salutary effect on Big Ben last Sunday. Conner was magnificent
(31.2 points, second best at the position), but Roethlisberger was
atrocious, tossing three picks and losing two fumbles, ultimately
costing his team a very winnable game against a team the Curtain
has owned for the better part of three decades. The weather was
equally atrocious, sure, but Roethlisberger’s continued tendency
to star at home and stink on the road is deeply troubling. He scored
almost 10 more fantasy points PER GAME in Pittsburgh than he did
on the road last season (including playoffs). What better way to
wash the taste of that Week 1 tie out of his mouth than a home date
with the high-scoring/defense-optional Chiefs? He’s a must start
Sunday.
Tyrod
Taylor @ NO: Big Ben’s Week 1 opponent didn’t fare much
better on the rain-soaked turf of FirstEnergy Stadium. In his first
start as Baker Mayfield’s seat warmer, Taylor managed to complete
only 37.5% of his passes, get sacked seven times, and throw a terrible
crunch time pick on a drive that could have sealed Cleveland’s biggest
win since…well, since they last won way back on December 24th, 2016.
He still ended up QB 7 for the week thanks to 77 rushing yards and
a score, digits very few NFL quarterbacks are even capable of. Tyrod
should be much more reliable on the Superdome’s terra firma come
Sunday and especially if the Saints roll out that sorry excuse for
a defense they fielded against Tampa last week. Expect better accuracy/passing
numbers for Taylor, a slight regression in his rushing totals, and
another sneaky good fantasy performance (say, 22 points).
Grab a Clipboard
Ryan
Fitzpatrick v. PHI: You’d have to go back to Nick Foles’
mind-melting, seven-TD masterpiece in November of 2013 to find
a more shocking statistical outlier than Fitzpatrick’s Week 1
dismantling of the Saints (417 yards, four TD tosses, and a rushing
score). Here’s a career journeyman playing for his seventh NFL
franchise—starting only because the guy he backs up is suspended
to start the season—abusing a team many have pegged for a trip
to Super Bowl LIII in front of their own fans. Even his most stubborn
apologists (guilty!) couldn’t have predicted such wild success
and now Fitzmagic has two more games to prove Jameis Winston belongs
on the bench come Week 4. To pull off that little trick, though,
he’ll have to get by the well-rested defending champs in Week
2, led by none other than Mr. Foles. Expect a thud as Fitzy returns
from orbit.
Aaron
Rodgers v. MIN: I agonized over this one, as you can
imagine, but mostly because I’m not certain they won’t confiscate
my prized Packers stock certificate for disparaging the franchise
so publicly. It’s probably buried in the shareholder agreement
somewhere, huh? Rodgers authored the second-most stunning performance
of Week 1 (“look, Ma, one leg!”) but now faces a Vikings crew
that A) ruined his and the Pack’s promising 2017 campaign; and
B) would surely relish doing so again this season. Save for a
late 2016 explosion (40.7 points in Week 16), A-Rodge has way
underperformed against his purple-clad nemeses in the Mike Zimmer
era and Zimmer’s squads seem to get better every year. They’re
talking Super Bowl this season in Minny and it’s far from a pipe
dream thanks to that stacked defense. Green Bay shouldn’t be favored
and will get clobbered if Rodgers sits. Too risky for me.
Derek
Carr @ DEN: It was good to see John Gruden and his
trademark grimace back on the sidelines Monday night, but did
you notice how it turned from playful affectation to genuine WTF-am-I-watching
disgust in just a few short hours? Carr threw easily the ugliest
interception of opening weekend (remember: Nate Peterman played)
and then capped off his disastrous 2018 debut by tossing a pick-six
to Marcus Peters to close out Week 1’s scoring. Rough. Things
don’t get any easier as the Raiders travel to Denver Sunday,
Carr’s personal house of horrors. He’s averaged just
12.7 fantasy points per outing in the Rockies and hasn’t
come close to the 200-yard mark yet. If he can’t figure
out a way to get his wideouts involved (5.2 points COMBINED),
he won’t once again. Chucky may turn this group around in
time for a migration to Vegas, but it won’t be easy.
