Bears @ Dolphins - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Jay Cutler got back on track last week against a Minnesota team that surprisingly was unable to put any pressure on the QB. Cutler has learned that Martz’ scheme, while good for putting up numbers in the passing attack, also leaves the QB mostly unprotected due to the number of players going out in downfield pass patterns. Last week the Bears subpar o-line gave him some time and he delivered with 3 TDs, although he did continue to turn the ball over with 2 interceptions. While the Bears don’t have a true No. 1 type WR on their roster, between Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett and TE Greg Olsen there’s plenty of speed and guile at Cutler’s disposal.

Miami has played the pass fairly well in 2010 allowing 203.9 ypg and 13 TDs on the season. The Bears must protect Cutler once again as the Phins can put pressure on opposing QBs - 23 sacks on the season, including 8.5 form emerging star Cameron Wake. Their aggressive attacking style has not led to many turnovers this season however – but with Cutler on the schedule that may change this week.

Running Game Thoughts: Matt Forte was off to a fast start in 2010 before the “Martz factor” started limiting his production. Martz simply does not run the ball consistently and although Forte is a very adept pass catcher, so is fellow backfield mate Chester Taylor, so Forte’s opportunities have been limited. This week he faces a tough run defense making it even tougher for you to count on him producing for your squad – proceed with caution.

Miami’s run defense has done a nice job holding down opposing running backs in 2010. They are allowing 110.2 ypg and only 5 TDs in the nine games they have played so far. Although Ray Rice and Chris Johnson have put up nice rushing totals against them in recent weeks, Matt Forte isn’t in the same ballpark as either back and will likely struggle even if he was to somehow see significant carries.

Projections:
Jay Cutler: 265 yards, 2 TDs, 2 Ints. / 20 yds rushing
Johnny Knox: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Devin Hester: 40 yds receiving
Greg Olsen: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Matt Forte: 45 yds rushing / 15 yds receiving
Chester Taylor: 35 yds rushing / 10 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: The second Chad Pennington era in Miami lasted all of a handful of snaps before he once again was lost for the season with another shoulder injury. Former starter Chad Henne regained the job and played reasonably well before he himself succumbed to a knee injury. The extent of Henne’s injury is still unknown but it’s highly unlikely he sees the field on a short week and there’s a chance he’s lost for the season as well. That leaves undrafted QB Tyler Thigpen who exploded on the fantasy scene two years ago while a member of the Chiefs. The, at the time, raw Thigpen played almost exclusively out of the spread formation from the shotgun position so it will be interesting to see what adjustments OC Dan Henning makes for Thigpen’s start this week. Brandon Marshall has been consistently double teamed limiting his production, but could benefit from Thigpen who in Kansas City forced the ball to Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez even in heavy coverage and allowed them to make plays.

Thigpen will be behind the eight-ball as he’ll be forced into action on an extremely short week and will be thrown out to face a tough pass defense. The Bears have played the pass very well, allowing only 219.6 ypg and an NFL low 6 TDs against on the season. Julius Peppers was getting good penetration earlier in the season, but has slowed down in recent weeks, but the secondary has held up despite the lack of pressure on opposing QBs.

Running Game Thoughts: Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will likely be called upon to carry a heavier load with the inexperienced Thigpen under center – but neither have looked all that impressive this season. Thigpen’s very mobile in his own right and may add a new dimension to the Wildcat offense the Dolphins will surely look to run.

The Bears are the second ranked run defense statistically (82.3 ypg and 9 TDs). – so establishing a running game will be easier said then done for Miami. Lance Briggs and Brian Ulracher have been flying to the ball and with their speed they should have no trouble keeping the less than speedy Brown and Williams at bay.

Projections:
Tyler Thigpen: 215 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int. / 40 yds rushing, 1 TD
Brandon Marshall: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
Brian Hartline: 10 yds receiving
Davone Bess: 30 yds receiving
Anthony Fasano: 75 yds receiving
Ronnie Brown: 55 yds rushing / 10 yds rec.
Ricky Williams: 30 yds rushing

Prediction: Dolphins 20 Bears 17 ^ Top

Giants @ Eagles - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Eli Manning isn’t worried about the Giants having another second half collapse and neither should you as an owner of a Giants skill position player. Manning has turned the corner into a consistent producer and while he does at times still throw the occasional inaccurate pass he’s more often brilliant than not. The loss of his security blanket Steve Smith will hurt some, but Eli showed Peyton-like ability in working with what he’s got by making stars out of Mario Manningham and Kevin Boss in Smith’s absence. Hakeem Nicks cost himself another monster game by dropping a sure 40 + yard TD catch and by cutting off his route in the endzone which allowed an interception for Dallas, but he’s still a force to be reckoned with going forward.

The Eagles have allowed 221.1 ypg game and 16 TDs through the air in 2010. Their once feared pass rush has lost some of its bite, but DE Trent Cole is still a man that needs to be accounted for by the Giants who have are starting former Eagle castoff Shaun Andrews at LT in place of David Diehl. Expect Kevin Boss who is coming off two stellar games to perhaps stay in a little more to help keep Eli protected.

Running Game Thoughts: Ahmad Bradshaw has likely worked his way into the first round of many 2011 fantasy football drafts with his performance so far this season, despite inconsistent TD production. His yardage totals, both rushing and receiving, have been outstanding most weeks and he has proven to be capable of delivering at the stripe when called upon. The problem is that the Giants still need to keep backup RB Brandon Jacobs happy, so they use him to vulture valuable TDs. In fairness, Jacobs is more than capable at that task, so over the long haul from the Giants’ perspective it’s likely wise to keep Bradshaw healthy by avoiding the goal-line pounding.

The Eagles have a strong run defense (104.4 ypg and 8 TDs) – but the Giants have traditionally run well on them. The Giants are banged up all across the line, but still managed to run well against the Cowboys last week. Expect them to try and control the ball early and keep Michael Vick on the sidelines.

Projections:
Eli Manning: 265 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 5 yds rushing
Mario Manningham: 70 yds receiving
Hakeem Nicks: 115 yds receiving, 2 TDs
Kevin Boss: 45 yds receiving
Brandon Jacobs: 45 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Ahmad Bradshaw: 95 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: Michael Vick put on one of the greatest performances of all time by an NFL QB this past Monday Night. He was simply amazing both as a passer and a rusher. Although Washington was a bottom 3 pass defense the accuracy he showed downfield was enough to convince all but his harshest critics that he has truly turned the corner as a passer and is no longer simply a “running QB”. The speed the Eagles have on the outside (DeSeasn Jackson and Jeremy Maclin) is just too much for most defenses to handle, which makes it very tough to stop the dangerous Vick when he exploits the space those WRs create for him by taking off running.

The Giants with the speed of their two outside defensive linemen, may be one of the better suited units to deal with Vick’s style of play. DEs Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck have better than average speed compared to most outside pass rushers and should be able to contain and chase down Vick on occasion – albeit they are no where near as fast as Vick so they can’t totally shut him down. Vick could find it a little tougher to pass this week against the Giants top 5 pass defense (186.9 ypg and 14 TDs), but bear in mind, New York probably will have trouble keeping up with Jackson and Maclin as their secondary relies more on smarts, instinct and toughness than speed.

Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy has fallen off the pace of his torrid start to the season, but is still very productive on a week to week basis because of his involvement in the passing game. He isn’t all that fast for a smaller back, but has great cutting ability and is running a lot harder than he did in last season. With all the weapons the Eagles possess on offense, its easy for opposing defenses to forget about the running back position – but you as a fantasy owner shouldn’t forget what McCoy can do for your team each week.

The Giants have stymied opposing RBs and are the No. 3 ranked run defense - 83.3 ypg and only 4 TDs on the ground. Of course they haven’t faced an opposing QB like Mike Vick that can help pad his team’s rushing stats quickly.

Projections:
Michael Vick: 225 yds passing 1 TD, 1 Int. / 75 yds rushing, 1 TD
Jeremy Maclin: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
DeSean Jackson: 85 yds receiving
Brent Celek: 25 yds receiving
LeSean McCoy: 60 yds rushing, 1 TD / 20 yds receiving

Prediction: Giants 27 Eagles 24

Lions @ Cowboys - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Veteran Shaun Hill who was rushed back into action after suffering a broken arm a few weeks ago, looked tentative to open up the game, but started airing it out as his team fell behind in Buffalo. Hill is smart enough to know where his bread is buttered thus Calvin Johnson was the main recipient of his targets when the Lions needed to get back in the game. Of course waiting until the second half to get Johnson involved may be the reason that the Lions needed to play catch up in the first place.

The Cowboys must put pressure on Hill or they can expect some big plays from CJ against their inferior secondary that has been consistently lit up this season. They are allowing 232 ypg and have given up 20 passing TDs on the season. Michael Jenkins who the team had high hopes for when they spent an early draft pick on him has been a major disappointment, but may be the only defensive back big enough to handle the enormous Johnson.

Running Game Thoughts: Jahvid Best has had an up and down rookie season (very down as of late) and is probably a little more bothered by his early season toe injuries than he has let on. He’s a dynamic talent with great burst and cutting ability and as natural a receiver as players that actually play the position. However, he has struggled at times against the tougher defenses in the league and even struggled against the very poor Buffalo run defense in Week 10. Fantasy owners would need to be hard pressed for alternatives to be relying on him during these important last couple of weeks in the fantasy season.

The Cowboys can be run on however, as they have allowed 122.0 rushing yards per game and 6 rushing TDs on the season. The team seemed motivated by Phillips firing last week in beating a superior Giants team, but we’ll see if that momentum carries over for another week.

Projections:
Shaun Hill: 225 yards, 2 TDs / 1 Int.
Calvin Johnson: 115 yds receiving, 1 TD
Nate Burleson: 40 yds receiving
Brandon Pettigrew: 25 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jahvid Best: 50 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving
Maurice Morris: 30 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: The Cowboys still ran a heavily unbalanced offense which favored the pass last week, but did at least try and establish the run a bit more than they did when new Head Coach Jason Garrett was simply the OC. WR Dez Bryant that has produced the best numbers of all the Cowboy WRs under Jon Kitna, at the expense of veterans Roy Williams and Miles Austin who have both struggled in recent weeks. No one really expected Roy Williams to do much this season, but Austin’s down year has to be a shock to those that spent an early round pick on last season’s breakout star.

The Lions have defended the pass better than last season, but are still a below average unit, allowing 228 ypg and 13 TDs. They do feature a resurgent defensive line that has put them among the league leaders in sacks with 25 so the Cowboys poor o-line will be tested. Rookie Ndamukung Suh and veteran Kyle Vandenbosch play with motors that don’t quit and have allowed the Lions to get to the QB without the need to blitz. Kitna’s lack of mobility could really do him a disservice this week and make the Cowboys take a step back from last week’s output, unless they find a way to protect the veteran.

Running Game Thoughts: The Cowboys ran the ball 22 times last week (not counting Kitna’s scrambles) which means they did more than just pay some lip service to trying to establish a running game. They weren’t all that effective however with Jones and Barber combining for only 98 yards between them. Felix Jones did however break out with a 71 yard run after a short pass from Kitna – likely tempting his owners to get him back in their line-ups this week after being parked on their benches for the last couple of weeks.

The Lions are down amongst the worst run defenses in the NFL allowing 130.4 ypg and 10 TDs on the season. They allowed Fred Jackson to have a career day against them last week in Buffalo – so perhaps Felix Jones can remain fantasy relevant for two consecutive weeks.

Projections:
Jon Kitna: 245 yds passing 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 5 yds rushing
Roy Williams: 25 yds receiving
Miles Austin: 65 yds receiving, 1 TD
Dez Bryant: 95 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jason Witten: 50 yds receiving
Felix Jones: 80 yds rushing, 1 TD / 40 yds receiving
Marion Barber: 45 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving

Prediction: Dallas 34 Lions 17

Texans @ Jets - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Texans have rode on the back of Arian Foster all season, while trying to change their image from a high flying passing attack to a ball control ground offense. Turns out either approach produces the same ultimate results, where the Texans end up as a mediocre team that misses the playoffs once again. Matt Shaub’s numbers have dropped dramatically accordingly, much to the dismay of his fantasy owners. Only Andre Johnson has been immune to the change in style – although even his numbers are down quite a bit from last season.

Darrelle Revis is back to full health which has spelled trouble for Calvin Johnson and the Cleveland WRs (admittedly not a tough assignment) in consecutive weeks. Next up is the WR who started the whole Revis Island talk in the first place – Andre Johnson, who Revis held to 4 catches for 45 yards on opening day 2009. On a whole the Jets have allowed decent passing yardage totals to most of their opponents and are especially vulnerable to slot WRs who have been covered by rookie Kyle Wilson and then Drew Coleman and now back to Wilson again. The Texans don’t have a true slot type WR – but Kevin Walters or Jacoby Jones could break out this week against the Jets nickel cornerbacks.

Running Game Thoughts: Arian Foster has been a huge surprise on the fantasy landscape and has been the No.1 ranked fantasy RB for most of the season. Foster’s one cut and go style fits in perfectly with the Houston zone blocking scheme and he has shown good open field moves once he gets through the hole. He runs hard and with good balance making him equally effective in space and in short yardage situations.

Foster will be tested by the Jets 4th ranked run defense which has stymied most opposing running games thus far. New York is allowing only 89.6 ypg and a mere 4 rushing TDs on the season. This could be the week that Houston decides to go back to a more wide open style if Foster can’t get it going early on.

Projections:
Matt Schaub: 215 yds passing, 1 TD, 1 Int. / 15 yds rushing
Andre Johnson: 50 yds receiving
Kevin Walter: 60 yds receiving, 1 TD
Jacoby Jones: 40 yds receiving
Joel Dreessen: 45 yds receiving
Arian Foster: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 10 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: Mark Sanchez has led his team to back to back road overtime victories the last two weeks and arguably played his best game as a pro last week in Cleveland. He’s been able to keep plays alive by moving in the pocket to avoid the rush and then find one of the Jets growing number of weapons down field. Santonio Holmes is starting to become more and more involved and is a dynamic playmaker with the ball in his hands as shown by his game winning 35 yard catch and run for a TD in OT where he split two defenders and beat another to the endzone. Dustin Keller who was Sanchez’ favorite target earlier in the season has become less involved since Holmes came off of his suspension, but his production may pick back up with Jerricho Cotchery expected to miss a week or two with a groin injury.

The Houston Texans’ pass defense has been historically bad in 2010. They are on pace to be the second worst pass defense of all time and things don’t look to be getting any better. They are allowing an astonishing 301 ypg and 22 TDs on the season. No QB has failed to throw multiple TDs in a game against them other than Donovan McNabb, who threw for over 400 yards in that game - so it wasn’t like he was held in check. With bye weeks over, most owners probably don’t need to start Mark Sanchez anymore, but if your normal starter has a tough matchup this week, consider the second year player out of USC in this juicy matchup.

Running Game Thoughts: For the first time this season Shonn Greene (20) received more carries than LaDainian Tomlinson (18), but LT owners shouldn’t panic as LT was still on the field for substantially more plays than the second year player. Rex Ryan stated before the game that Greene would move more towards a 50/50 split with LT in order to keep the aging back fresh down the stretch and for the playoffs. Greene has run hard and could be a suprising boost for his owners down the stretch now that he’s seeing the rock more.

Houston isn’t really all that great against the run either but teams can only gain so many yards each week against them so they have managed to rank mid pack against the run. They allow 108.3 ypg and have yielded 8 rushing TDs on the season.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez: 265 yds passing, 2 TDs / 15 yards rushing
Braylon Edwards: 60 yds receiving
Santonio Holmes: 70 yds receiving, 1 TD
Dustin Keller: 55 yds receiving, 1 TD
Shonn Greene: 85 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
LaDainian Tomlinson: 65 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving

Prediction: Jets 27 Houston 20

Colts @ Patriots - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: The skill players surrounding Peyton Manning keep changing (almost on a weekly basis) but the Colts keep winning with Manning being the constant glue that keeps it together. Early season fantasy star Austin Collie goes down and last season’s out of nowhere star Pierre Garcon steps back up. Stud TE Dallas Clark is lost for the season and in steps unknown youngster Jacob Tamme who has been one of the top performing TEs over the last three weeks. Manning doesn’t care who he’s throwing to as long as the player gets open and catches the ball. Collie and Tamme’s status is up in the air this week, so keep and eye on the news on them. Reggie Wayne has been getting constant double teams with the Colts so otherwise depleted for receiving options, but he may see heavy targets anyway against rival New England who he generally performs well against.

The Pats’ young secondary has struggled for most of the season, but as cornerbacks Darius Butler and Devin McCourty and safety Patrick Chung have started gaining some experience they have played a little better. The Pats are still a pass defense fantasy owners should target though as they are allowing 277.8 ypg and 16 TDs on the season. The Colts best chance against the Pats could be to attack downfield even if Manning is throwing to guys like Blair While and Brandon James.

Running Game Thoughts: The Colts are as banged up at the RB position as they are at WR. Joseph Addai and Mike Hart who have been the Colts best runners are looking like they will each miss at least one more week. That gives disappointing second year back Donald Brown another chance to show the Colts that they can let Addai walk this offseason – something he has yet to show – while Edgerrin’s little cousin Javaris keeps the role as goal-line plunger for at least another week.

The Pats have played the run reasonably well so far and are allowing 113.0 ypg and only 7 TDs on the ground through their first nine games. Their younger talent, like linebackers Jerod Mayo and Rob Ninkovich and safety Patrick Chung have infused some much needed speed and athleticism into what was an aging Pats’ defense.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 285 yds passing, 3 TDs / 15 yds rushing
Reggie Wayne: 115 yds receiving, 2 TDs
Pierre Garcon: 60 yds receiving
Jacob Tamme: 75 yds receiving, 1 TD
Javarris James: 10 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving
Donald Brown: 45 yds rushing / 20 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: Since Randy Moss’ departure, the Pats run more of a dink and dunk style offense, featuring two TE sets, for the most part. Luckily they have two very talented young rookie TEs in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Hernandez has been the leading Patriots receiver during most of the season, but last week it was Gronkowski who caught five balls and scored three times. Expect each TE stat’s (and all of their receivers as well) to be inconsistent from week to week as the Pats have moved back to being a spread the wealth offense and will exploit matchups each week. Even former ppr stud Wes Welker has seen his targets decline.

The Colts with their smaller and speedy defensive linemen will need to try and disrupt Brady’s rhythm in order to stop the Patriot passing game. DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have the ability to take over a game at times, and if a depleted Indy team stands a chance in Foxboro, this will need to be one of those weeks. The Colts are the 10th ranked pass defense in the NFL allowing 211 ypg and 11 TDs on the season.

Running Game Thoughts: BenJarvis Green-Ellis has stepped up his game in 2010 and is the type of back that can cause the smallish Colt defenders nightmares. He’s a no nonsense North-South runner, but has developed a little more shiftiness than he’s shown in the past. Danny Woodhead, a former NCAA leading rusher out of Chadron State, has provided a change of pace spark to the running attack as well. An infusion of youth may have just been what this aging running game needed.

The matchup with the Colts is a particularly good one as the Colts have struggled tremendously in shutting down opposing running games with Bob Sanders once again missing in action. The Colts allow 133.2 ypg and a TD per game on the ground. Fantasy owners should crack a smile when they see “IND” listed as the opponent of one of their running backs.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 235 yds passing, 1 TD
Deion Branch: 40 yds receiving
Wes Welker: 50 yds receiving
Rob Gronkowski: 15 yds receiving, 1 TD
Aaron Hernandez: 70 yds receiving
Danny Woodhead: 45 yds rushing, 1 TD / 30 yds receiving
BenJarvis Green-Ellis: 90 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving

Prediction: Colts 28 Patriots 24

Packers @ Vikings - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: After throwing at least one interception in five consecutive games, Aaron Rodgers has now gone two straight without turning the football over. The Packers lost three of those five games, meaning the success of Green Bay’s offense—and indeed, the success of many a fantasy team—is predicated on Rodgers not only taking care of the ball, but doing something with it. He led an onslaught of the disinterested Dallas Cowboys last time we saw Rodgers two weeks ago, but he now gets to go up against an improving but still somewhat underachieving Minnesota pass defense. The Vikings have only surrendered multiple TD passes at home once this year.

Donald Driver is still nursing an injured quad, and his availability is still up in the air for this week. James Jones, however, stepped in last week in his absence and provided the kind of down-the-field threat Driver has yet to show in 2010. Jones is a nice start again this week, provided Driver sits out. Greg Jennings is ascending after a slow start this season. He has 25 receptions in his last four games and looks to have re-established himself as Green Bay’s undisputed #1 option. Start him with confidence.

Running Game Thoughts: Both Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn received the same number of carries last week, but don’t let that fool you. Kuhn got a lot of playing time due to the score, but Jackson has certainly established himself as Green Bay’s best option at RB. In fact, last week’s 13 carries for 50 yards for Kuhn were both career highs. And the fact that he hasn’t scored since week one is yet another reason why his spot on any fantasy roster should be questioned at this point. Jackson is the man, although five times this season the Vikings have held opponents to less than 100 yards rushing as a team. With bye-weeks now gone, Jackson is not a viable option against Minnesota.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 265 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Brandon Jackson – 40 yards
James Jones – 110 yards / 1 TD
Greg Jennings – 70 yards / 1 TD
Jordy Nelson – 30 yards
Donald Lee – 45 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: What a difference a year makes. This time last year, Brett Favre had 17 TDs and three INTs; right now he has 10 TDs and 16 INTs. The Vikings can’t win with that kind of production swoon, and neither can fantasy owners. His production is all over the map, and you simply can’t trust him or the supporting cast of injured and/or underachieving receivers.

Will Sidney Rice be able to play or won’t he? That’s been a much-discussed topic among fantasy owners. It sets up beautifully for him if he does. Percy Harvin could have a flare-up of his migraines at any moment, Bernard Berrian is a below-average option, and Greg Lewis is best known for the last-second reception last season against San Francisco. So if Rice returns and can mirror even a portion of his 2009 self, he’d be worth a look. But the Packers have the 11th-best pass defense in the league and have only given up nine TD passes—fourth best in the league. So whoever Minnesota trots out on the field as a weapon for a breaking-down Favre, it’s going to be a tough go.

Running Game Thoughts: Adrian Peterson went scoreless last week—the first time in five games that’s been the case. But there’s a great chance that Peterson gets in the end zone against Green Bay because it’s been since week 15 of the 2008 season that he went more than one game without scoring. The Packers give up quite a few yards on the ground but have prevented most opposing RBs from hitting paydirt. They’ve surrendered only four rushing TDs all year. So something’s gotta give. I’ll give the nod to Peterson simply because he’s their offense. And with the depleted WR corp, expect Peterson to remain a cog in the passing game. Favre had a career-best game just several weeks ago, but relying on an aging 41-year-old QB to bail you out week after week is a tough way to earn a living in the NFL. Expect a solid—if far from spectacular—game from Peterson this week.

Projections:
Brett Favre – 215 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Adrian Peterson – 95 yards rushing / 35 yards rec / 1 rushing TD
Percy Harvin – 70 yards
Greg Lewis – 30 yards
Greg Camarillo – 20 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe – 65 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Green Bay 20, Minnesota 17

Bills @ Bengals - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: After surprising the fantasy football world with his ridiculously productive game against Baltimore in week six, a game that saw him toss four TDs, Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t only totaled three TD passes in the three games since. And last week’s 146 yard, one TD game really leaves some scratching their heads. But the best thing of all regarding Buffalo’s passing game is the surprising emergence of Steve Johnson. He had a stinker of a game last week, but that doesn’t take away the fact that he had six TD receptions in the last six games leading into last week.

Cincinnati’s six game losing streak can’t be blamed on the defense. This unit has played well, all things considered. And last week’s gem against Indianapolis on the road put that fact in full focus. So Buffalo could have a hard time eating up real estate through the air. The Bengals should hold Buffalo’s passing game in check, to the extent that both Lee Evans and Steve Johnson are bottom-end WR3s against Cincy.

Running Game Thoughts: It’s funny how once-cloudy running back situations somehow work themselves out in due time. Washington. Cleveland. Tampa Bay. Even Buffalo. A season that began with Marshawn Lynch (traded) and C.J. Spiller (injured—out this week) vying with Fred Jackson for playing time has been distilled down to only Jackson being the running threat. He came through in a big way against Detroit last week, rushing for a season-high 133 yards rushing. Jackson has never big a real threat to score consistently, but he has run for a TD in two straight games. The Bengals are a bottom-third run defense, so Jackson could be given consideration to those desperate owners in deeper leagues.

Projections:
Ryan Fitzpatrick – 190 yards / 1 TD / 1 INT
Fred Jackson – 85 yards rushing / 30 yards rec / 1 rushing TD
Steve Johnson – 70 yards / 1 TD
Lee Evans – 45 yards
Donald Jones – 35 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: Did you see Carson Palmer’s first interception last week? That was an ugly throw that looked more like a rookie making his first start. But with Palmer, you’ll have to take the good with the bad in 2010. The good: multiple TD passes in six straight games; the bad: five interceptions in the last three. If anyone’s play didn’t necessarily match their stats, Palmer is it. I’m sure his owners get nervous every time he drops back to pass because you have no idea which color jersey he’s going to throw it to.

Buffalo has the league’s fourth-best pass defense, but I think that number is misleading because teams are so successful running the ball against them. Their 18 allowed TD passes proves that. Also, to say Terrell Owens is primed for a good game because he’s going up against his former team is an obvious statement, but T.O. has been smoking opponents on a regular basis for that last month and a half. He had seven TD receptions in the previous five games heading into last week’s contest. Whatever his motivation, expect another solid game from #81.

Running Game Thoughts: Cedric Benson has been underwhelming much of this season. He has only one game with more than 100 yards rushing and has scored one TD in the last six games. This time last year, he had four times as many 100-plus rushing games and two times the rushing TDs. Obviously, he’s not having the kind of season many of us predicted. Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of all is the RB situation in Cincy is tailor-made for fantasy football—no threat of a RBBC. But Benson has been a bore to watch in 2010 and has fallen woefully short of preseason predictions. Since he undoubtedly gets the lion’s share of the carries, it’s always a tough call to bench him. Because the running game centers around him, though, I say start him and hope that he will finally have his first productive game in awhile. And by the way, going up against Buffalo’s league-worst run defense gives a slight reason to be optimistic about Benson’s chances for success this week.

Projections:
Carson Palmer – 215 yards / 2 TDs / 1 INT
Cedric Benson – 90 yards / 1 TD
Terrell Owens – 110 yards / 1 TD
Chad Ochocinco – 55 yards
Jermaine Gresham – 35 yards / 1 TD

Prediction: Cincinnati 24, Buffalo 20

Raiders @ Steelers - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: Louis Murphy returns to action this week after missing several games with a bruised lung. He torched Pittsburgh last season at Heinz Field and looks to have a repeat performance. Jason Campbell hasn’t been a fantasy world-beater, but his play has been steady enough to not render those around him completely useless. He actually has five TDs and one INT in the last three games. That’s pretty good, considering he’s still available in many leagues.

Surprisingly, Pittsburgh has given up a ton of yards through the air this year. They’re 26th in the league defending the pass but are among the league leaders in sacks with 24. It sometimes looks routine rattling Jason Campbell. If the Steelers are able to do that, they would really alter what Oakland would like to do in the passing game. TE Zach Miller may still be a week away, and with Murphy playing his first game in some time, it’s tough to recommend any passing game components for Oakland. I’m simply not ready yet to trust Campbell.

Running Game Thoughts: Ok, this should be fun. Oakland’s #2-ranked rushing offense battles Pittsburgh’s top-ranked rush defense. Keep in mind, too, that last week was the first time this season that the Steelers gave up more than 100 yards to a team. Darren McFadden doesn’t look like the kind of RB that would give Pittsburgh trouble, although he’s morphed into a bruising runner at given moments of games this season. I know many are toying with benching McFadden because of the opponent, but it’s got to be difficult to bench one of the top rushers this season. I’m a McFadden owner and I don’t have much choice but to start him. I’m not expecting great things, but he gives me comfort knowing he’s an integral part of the offense and he will get touches. What he does with them, of course, is the bottom line. He could see a few passes thrown his way, too. If you have a better match-up, go with that; if not, take the gamble along with me.

Projections:
Jason Campbell – 185 yards / 1 TD / 2 INTs
Darren McFadden – 55 rushing yards / 35 rec yards
Louis Murphy – 55 yards
Jacoby Ford – 40 yards
Brandon Myers – 40 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: Pittsburgh got down quickly last week and had to abandon the running game fairly early. Consequently, Ben Roethlisberger was given the green light to toss it all over the place in an effort to get back into the game. His 49 pass attempts where the most since he threw 54 times in week eight of the 2006 season. And oh by the way, they were blown out by Denver in that game. So look for the Steelers to establish a physical presence with the running game while choosing to attack the league’s second-best pass defense only when need be.

Hines Ward looks like he will be able to play after leaving last week’s game with a slight concussion. Assuming he’s okay, look for the usual short to intermediate pass attempts to him, with Mike Wallace threatening the defense with deep routes on a consistent basis. Pittsburgh seems to through it deep his way several times a game, so don’t look for that to change. Oakland’s CB Nnamdi Asomugha remains a question mark, but Oakland still fields the league’s second-best pass defense. This is going to be a low-scoring game with not much action coming from the passing game.

Running Game Thoughts: One of Oakland’s glaring weaknesses is its ability to stop the run; they’re 24th in the league at stopping the run. I would expect Pittsburgh to rely more heavily on their running game this week, as the Raiders have been pretty stingy giving up yards this season. Rashard Mendenhall is a steady option at RB, so starting him is a no-brainer this week. He was relegated to secondary status last week because Pittsburgh had a huge deficit to overcome early in the contest. That probably won’t be the case against Oakland, so look for Mendenhall to get his first 100-plus yard rushing performance since week three.

Projections:
Ben Roethlisberger – 210 yards / 1 TD
Rashard Mendenhall – 95 yards / 2 TDs
Mike Wallace – 75 yards / 1 TD
Hines Ward – 40 yards
Heath Miller – 50 yards

Prediction: Pittsburgh 21, Oakland 10

Cardinals @ Chiefs - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Cardinals can have some success throwing on the Chiefs in this matchup. The Chiefs have given up some big performances in recent weeks including Brandon Lloyds two score 130 yard day last week. While the Cards have missed Kurt Warner, they are showing some signs of life now that they have their receiving core healthy again and back to full strength. Lead WR Larry Fitzgerald has averaged 90 yards receiving over the last three weeks and scored twice. Derek Anderson has steadied the ship some since the Max Hall experiment. He is no fantasy starting option but getting a couple hundred yards and two scores on average. With all the attention Fitzgerald gets, his running mate Steve Breaston is flying a little under the radar but deserves some attention of his own. He’s had 100 yards receiving in two of his last three. He will face CB Brandon Carr, whom most teams prefer to pick on in order to avoid Brandon Flowers who is having a breakout season.

Running Game Thoughts: Yet again RB Beanie Wells is predicting a breakout performance. Begin holding breath now…Apparently he’s confident that his knee swelling that kept him basically inactive for the last two weeks. It hasn’t improved enough for him to practice in full yet though. He is expected to start, but how many touches he gets is in doubt with how little he has played of late. If at full strength and getting 20 or more touches, he can be a RB2 this week and beyond, but remains a risk at this point. The Chief’s have the 13th ranked run defense allowing 104 yards per game. They are favored in this game and should have an advantage in time of possession, all ingredients for making the Cards running game to be best left on the bench.

Projections:
Derek Anderson: 220 yds/2 TD/1 INT
Larry Fitzgerald: 90 yds/ 1TD
Steve Breaston: 70 yds/1 TD
Early Doucet: 40 yds
Chris Wells: 65 yds/1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: QB Matt Cassel and the Chiefs passing game is firing on all cylinders and look to continue it facing one of the NFL’s poorest pass defenses. Cassel threw for a season high 469 yard four TD game against the Broncos. While capable of putting up these kinds of numbers it seems unlikely. The Chiefs will want to run to run the ball and should be successful. A big part of their big passing game was because the Broncos jumped out to a large early lead. Even without another 400 yard plus day, WR Dwayne Bowe is a must start as one of the league’s hottest WRs. Over a span of five weeks Bowe has scored a remarkable eight times. Beyond Bowe, only TE Tony Moeaki merits fantasy consideration but he is questionable to play with a concussion.

Running Game Thoughts: Most pundits speculate Jamaal Charles would be kept fresh the first half of the year with limited touches and a bigger role for teammate Thomas Jones, but as the season wore on, Charles would begin taking on a larger role being the more talented player. Those predictions appear to be taking effect as Jones has had limited production over the last few weeks while Charles has seen more action. A closer look shows that the Chiefs may not have changed strategy as expected so much as they have fallen behind in their more the last few weeks. So while I don’t disagree with the notion that Charles will see more action as the season wears on, I would caution Jones Owners not to throw him into the scrap heap just yet. This is a game where the Chiefs may see a lead, which will favor the power run game Jones excels at. Wait and see what happens and how this game plays out before handing over the Nostradamus awards to the Jamal Charles fantasy hero in the second half club.

Predictions:
Matt Cassel: 235 yds/1 TDs/1 INT
Dwayne Bowe: 105 yds/1 TD
Chris Chambers: 40 yds
Leonard Pope: 30 yds
Thomas Jones: 60 yds/1 TD
Jamaal Charles: 65 yards/45 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Chiefs 27 Cardinals 20

Falcons @ Rams - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: The days of the Flacons being a power run team riding the stout legs of Michael Turner are fading ever so slightly. Recent weeks have shown a greater flexibility in the Flacons attack. They have been employing some spread formations with Jason Snelling in the backfield. And not just in passing only situations. Snelling is a regular part of the rotations and is worthy of flex consideration in PPR leagues. WR Roddy White has exceeded his already high expectations by making himself the most reliable WR in the league this year. He’s in your lineup every week. The return of WR Mike Jenkins to pair with Roddy, Harry Douglas, TE Tony Gonzales, and even Brian Finneran give them the depth too spread defenses out with reliable weapons. All of this is made possible because of the growth of QB Matt Ryan. The Falcons are giving him greater control at the line of scrimmage. Like Manning and Brady, Ryan is able to audible in and out of plays based on his pre snap reads. The spread formation, with the diverse talents of Snelling, gives Ryan the personnel freedom to run or pass. These recent changes bode well for the fantasy prospects of the Falcons pass attack players moving forward.

Running Game Thoughts: The changes in philosophy I mentioned above cast some limitations on the ceiling for Michael Turner. He is still a beast that is capable of multi-score games any given week, but he will probably have to do more with less. He is less likely to see 25-30 carries a game that seemed to be a sure thing the last few years. The Falcons should get a good lead, considering the roll they have been on offensively, which will mean close out carries and chances to score for Turner.

Projections:
Matt Ryan: 265 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Roddy White: 120 yds/1 TD
Mike Jenkins: 65 yds
Tony Gonzalez: 50 yds/1 TD
Michael Turner: 85 yds/1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: The Rams deserve some credit with the way they have handled rookie QB Sam Bradford. There’s no question he is talented but they make sure they don’t ask him to do too much and subject him to the type of pounding that can harm a rookie like the Texans did with David Carr as an example. Bradford completes a high percentage because he is accurate, quick with his decisions, and rarely throws downfield. Almost all their passes travel less than 20 yards in the air. They may be setting the new model for how to utilize rookie QBs in the future. He continues to grow because he’s only asked to do what he is comfortable with. Because their attack is so safe, he makes a consistent fantasy option, but with a very low ceiling. The Rams were apparently listening when I criticized their usage of Steven Jackson in the passing game last week. They targeted early and often to the tune of 8 receptions for 67 yards. Not sure why they waited so long but it’s a great sign for both their values. Top target Danny Amendola scored again, that’s a three game streak now, only this time he posted decent yardage (51) and reception (7) totals which had been slipping for several weeks. He and Brandon Gibson qualify as WR3’s this week facing the Falcons pass defense that can be thrown on. There’s a good chance they will be playing form behind this week as well, raising their numbers beyond season averages.

Running Game Thoughts: This is a game where Steven Jackson may get a good portion of his productivity in passing rather than rushing yards. The Falcons run defense ranks 7th in the league, while the Rams rushing attack has been less than stellar. The Falcons defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux doesn’t get the credit he deserves. He excels at creates penetration in the backfield that disrupts blocking schemes. He will force Steven Jackson outside where the Falcons LBs have the speed to clean up the mess and log a lot of tackles.

Projections:
Sam Bradford: 225 yds/1 TD/1 INT
Danny Amendola: 65 yds
Brandon Gibson: 50 yds/1 TD
Daniel Fells: 35 yds
Steven Jackson: 70 yds/45 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Falcons 31 Rams 17

Broncos @ Chargers - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: Good chance for a shootout with two of the league’s top passing attacks facing off. Play all your Chargers and Broncos. Orton to Lloyd has been one of the most consistent connections this year. The Chargers have a good pair of CBs but this combo should continue their good run. Lloyd can beat the Charger safeties over the top. The Broncos keep teams form constant double teams by spreading defenses out with Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney. Both are capable of making plays and keeping defenses honest.

Running Game Thoughts: The Broncos are trying to get more balance on offense by getting RB Knowshon Moreno more involved. Moreno may not be the special talent some expected coming out of college, but he is quick enough to consistently get chunks of yards with good blocking. The Chargers 3-4 defense relies on pressure from the outside LB position. The Broncos can get Moreno some room to operate by using delays, screens, and draws to wait for the OLBs to penetrate and run to the gaps they leave behind. The Chargers are normally disciplined against this kind of attack but they will be more worried about getting pressure on Orton than stopping Moreno. I like Moreno to post over a 100 total yards with a good chance to score despite facing a good run defense.

Projections:
Kyle Orton: 305 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Brandon Lloyd: 85 yds/1 TD
Jabar Gaffney: 70 yds/1 TD
Eddie Royal: 50 yds
Knowshon Moreno: 75 yds/35 rec/1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Regardless of who the Chargers roll out at WR each week QB Philip Rivers not only continues to succeed, but is doing so at a all-time record pace for yardage, threatening Dan Marino’s record numbers - with guys named Ajirotutu. Rivers receiving corps may be shaping up on the outside soon. Malcom Floyd, his top deep threat, is expected back. I don’t love his prospects after several weeks off and probably facing the Broncos Champ Bailey, but it’s hard to go wrong when you’re Rivers top target. Legedu Naanee is more of a question mark as he’s still only practicing on a limited basis. He's not much of a loss, as Patrick Crayton has shown to be more than capable of filling in his role as an underneath possession option. Vincent Jackson isn’t available for another week so the big question mark surrounds all world TE Antonio Gates. He will be a gametime decision after missing last week with an extremely painful foot injury. Gates claimed he was 50/50 to play. Yardage wise, Rivers showed last week he can overcome Gates’ absence but they miss him most in the red zone. San Diego went to his backup Randy McMichael for two TDs last week but the defenses will make adjustments. If Denver takes the TE away, the Chargers will utilize Darren Sproles out of the backfield in the redzone much like the Saints' usage of Reggie Bush.

Running Game Thoughts: The Chargers supposed starting RB Ryan Mathews hasn’t fully recovered from his ankle injury - even with the bye week. He missed practice Wednesday and was limited on Thursday and whether he plays or not, Mike Tolbert will have a big role. If Mathews is out Tolbert could have a big day against Denver’s weak run defense. The 3-4 defense the Broncos prefer utilizes speed, Tolbert utilizes power. Twenty plus carries could net him over a hundred yards and one or two scores.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 330 yds/2 TDs/1 INT
Malcom Floyd: 60 yds/1 TD
Patrick Crayton: 75 yds
Randy McMichael: 45 yds/1 TD
Darren Sproles: 35 yds/35 rec
Mike Tolbert: 65 yds/25 rec/1 TD

Prediction: Chargers 31 Broncos 24

Ravens @ Panthers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco’s hot streak continued last week as he threw for his fourth-straight multiple-touchdown game in a row. In fact, during that span, Flacco has thrown 10 touchdowns with only one interception—the best run of his young career. The third-year quarterback started off slow earlier this year, but has become a very consistent fantasy player since then, throwing at least one touchdown pass in every game since week three except one—and he ran a touchdown in that week.

This week Flacco plays against the Panthers’ defense which ranks 8th against opposing quarterbacks. That stat is a bit inflated, however, as the Panthers absolutely assaulted the Chicago Bears’ quarterbacks in Week 5. Over the past three weeks, the Panthers have allowed two touchdowns in every game and only forced one interception. With only 13 sacks on the year, the Panthers have struggled mightily to get to the quarterback which has led to some nice games by opposing QB’s. This would probably be considered a better matchup for Flacco and the Ravens’ passing attack if the Panthers weren’t expected to be blown out—it’s definitely a possibility that the Ravens are running the ball almost exclusively in the second half.

Running Game Thoughts: It has been a disappointing season for Ray Rice, who was a top-5 pick on almost every league. While he hasn’t been bad enough to bench for most owners, it’s becoming increasingly frustrating to watch him fail to get into the end zone. Through nine games, Rice has scored just two touchdowns—both of which came against the Broncos in Week 5. He’s coming off of back-to-back 100 total yard games against the Dolphins and Falcons, but the lack of touchdowns has to be a concern.

On the bright side, this week’s game against the Panthers may well be highest potential scoring game since he saw the Broncos. The Panthers rank 23rd against opposing running backs, having conceded back-to-back big games to the Buccaneers and Saints’ running backs. While the Ravens have struggled at times to run the ball this year, Rice is certainly more talented than any of the backs on those teams. The question remains, however, if Rice will be given the opportunity to score at the stripe or if he will continue to concede those carries to his partner-in-crime, Willis McGahee.

Projections:
Joe Flacco – 195 yards passing / 2 TD / 1 INT / 10 yards rushing
Ray Rice– 100 yards rushing / 1 TD / 35 yards receiving / 0 TD
Willis McGahee – 25 yards rushing / 1 TD / 5 yards receiving
Anquan Boldin – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD
Derrick Mason – 45 yards receiving / 0 TD
T.J. Houshmandzadeh – 25 yards receiving / 0 TD
Todd Heap – 35 yards receiving / 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: From stay-at-home Dad last week to starting NFL quarterback this week, Brian St. Pierre is the kind of rags-to-riches story that fans love to see. In his 8th NFL season, St. Pierre has never started an NFL game and has thrown only five regular season NFL passes in his entire career. The Panthers will be without rookie Jimmy Clausen who suffered a concussion during last week’s loss to the Buccaneers, and Matt Moore who was placed on IR after a shoulder injury.

Ranked 7th against the pass in the NFL, the Baltimore Ravens’ defense is exactly the type that could feast on a player like Brian St. Pierre. Though they were torched in Week 10 by Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and the Falcons; the Ravens had intercepted seven passes over their three games prior to that. Though many would argue that the secondary is the weak point in the Baltimore defense, it’s hard to believe that Brian St. Pierre is going to be able to get the ball to Steve Smith and the other Panthers receivers enough to make any sort of fantasy impact.

Running Game Thoughts: It’s never inspiring when a team is on their third quarterback and their third running back, but that’s where the Panthers are right now. Oddly enough, though, Mike Goodson became the first Panthers running back to rush for 100 yards in 2010 last week when he did it against the Buccaneers. The discouraging thing was that after that inspiring performance, the Panthers still opted to give the goal line touchdown to Josh Vaughan. Vaughan’s upside is probably just that—a couple yards and a touchdown—but there’s a good possibility that the Panthers would turn to him near the stripe again if they get there this week.

The Ravens 4th ranked run defense will make it tough for anyone in this offense to do much of anything. While Goodson looked good against the Buccaneers, the Ravens are even more difficult to run against and will be able to focus more on stopping the run now that Brian St. Pierre is the quarterback. Goodson should get a good number of touches, but his upside is very limited.

Projections:
Brian St. Pierre – 135 yards passing / 1 TD / 2 INT
Michael Turner – 60 yards rushing / 0 TD / 25 yards receiving
Steve Smith – 50 yards receiving / 1 TD
Brandon LaFell – 30 yards receiving / 0 TD
David Gettis – 25 yards receiving / 0 TD

Prediction: Ravens 24, Panthers 6

Browns @ Jaguars - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Rookie quarterback Colt McCoy suffered his first professional loss last week as his Cleveland Browns fell in overtime to the highly-touted New York Jets. The loss should not be hung on McCoy’s shoulders, however, as he had a decent day throwing the ball and didn’t turn the ball over. Despite not having a go-to receiver, McCoy has progressed better than expected and has given his team a chance to win every game he has played in. Mohamed Massaquoi caught his first touchdown pass since Week 1 last week, but tight end Ben Watson remains McCoy’s favorite receiver.

McCoy will have a chance for perhaps his best fantasy day of the season as he faces a Jaguars defense that ranks 30th in the league in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Other than a four interception performance against Jon Kitna and the Cowboys in Week 8, the Jaguars have allowed 18 passing touchdowns while forcing only three interceptions on the year. McCoy hasn’t been a great fantasy quarterback this year, but if you’re going to play him, this might be the week to do it.

Running Game Thoughts: With double-digit points in every game but one this season, Peyton Hillis may very well be the league’s most consistent fantasy running back. After three straight weeks with mediocre rushing numbers, Hillis has bounced back with back-to-back 100+ total yard games and has scored three touchdowns in the his past two games. At this point, Hillis is practically an every-week must-start no matter his opponent.

Hillis will get the opportunity to face a Jaguars run defense that has conceded a league-worst 11 rushing touchdowns already this season, including having allowed rushing touchdowns in four straight games. While Jacksonville’s run defense may be the better part of their game, it’s only because the pass defense has been so bad—this is among the very worst defenses in the league and fantasy owners must be chomping at the bit to get Peyton Hillis in there against them.

Projections:
Colt McCoy – 185 yards passing / 2 TD / 0 INT
Peyton Hillis – 115 yards rushing / 1 TD / 40 yards receiving
Mohamed Massaquoi – 50 yards receiving / 1 TD
Chansi Stuckey – 35 yards receiving / 0 TD
Ben Watson – 60 yards receiving / 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: David Garrard has come alive. In the last four games he has started and played through, Garrard has passed for 11 touchdowns with just one interception while adding an additional two rushing touchdowns. There may not be a hotter non-“stud” fantasy quarterback in the NFL. This comes despite the fact that his receivers, Mike Thomas and Mike Sims-Walker, have been perhaps the most inconsistent duo on the league. Whether it’s Thomas or Sims-Walker, though, one of the Mike’s seems to be have a good game every week—it’s just hard to figure out which one it’s going to be.

The Browns pass defense could be in for a tough game as they have allowed two-or-more passing touchdowns in four straight games. While they have intercepted seven passes as well during that time, there is growing concern that teams are avoiding running the ball at them to make room for more passing. This came to fruition last week when the Jets—one of the best run offenses in the league—passed for nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns as they defeated the Browns with an overtime touchdown strike from Mark Sanchez to Santonio Holmes. The Browns have been susceptible to the pass as of late and with how hot Garrard has been, it’s tough to take him out of your lineup now.

Running Game Thoughts: Maurice Jones-Drew owners were screaming “FINALLY!” last week as the consensus top-five pick going into the season had his first multiple rushing touchdown game of the season as the Jaguars defeated the Texans. While it was David Garrard’s last-second, miracle Hail Mary touchdown to Mike Thomas that secured the win, it was the solid play of running back Maurice Jones-Drew that kept the Jaguars in the game. Jones-Drew rushed for his third 100-yard game of the season and his second in a row in the contest, and may finally be on the upswing again.

Jones-Drew will have a tougher time this week, though, as he faces a Cleveland Browns defense that has been surprisingly very good at stopping the run this season. Though they allowed the Jets duo of LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene to rush for 129 yards last week, the Browns have allowed just an unbelievably one rushing touchdown all season. They have allowed five 100+ yard rushing games to opposing teams’ running backs, but as long as the Browns keep the backs out of the end zone, it’s tough to complain too much. Jones-Drew is playing better than he has all season and although we are projecting him to get into the end zone this week, don’t be too surprised if the Browns tighten up near the goal line and keep him out. He probably has to be in your lineup if you have him, but his upside is fairly limited this week against a tough defense.

Projections:
David Garrard – 250 yards passing / 2 TD / 1 INT / 15 yards rushing
Maurice Jones-Drew – 90 yards rushing / 1 TD / 20 yards receiving
Mike Thomas – 75 yards receiving / 1 TD
Mike Sims-Walker – 35 yards receiving / 0 TD
Marcedes Lewis – 45 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Browns 21, Jaguars 24

Redskins @ Titans - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Last week was more of a mirage than it was a trend, as the Redskins were blown out early in the game and had to look to pass the ball more than ever. As a result, Donovan McNabb threw for just his first two-touchdown game of the season, but also threw for a season-high three interceptions as the Redskins lost in embarrassing fashion to their division rival, the Philadelphia Eagles. McNabb has been a major fantasy disappointment this season and although he’s riding a streak of eight games with a touchdown pass, he threw only one touchdown pass in seven of those games and cracked 300 yards just twice.

He’ll face a Titans defense this week that is one of just three NFL defenses to have intercepted more passes than they have allowed touchdowns. Nevertheless, look for the Redskins to pass the ball a lot this week as they are likely to be without their top two running backs, Clinton Portis and Ryan Torain, who are both injured. McNabb is a high-risk play against a team that has a tendency to intercept so many passes, but the Redskins got to passing the ball deep quite a few times last week and it could turn to a couple big plays that may very well go for scores.

Running Game Thoughts: With both Ryan Torain and Clinton Portis likely to miss this week’s game, the Redskins turn to Keiland Williams. Williams, who is coming off of a big fantasy day that included three garbage-time touchdowns and nearly 140 yards of total offense, is presumably going to take the significant majority of carries again this week. He is not an explosive runner and doesn’t have particularly great strength either, but Williams has scored six touchdowns in his past four games despite very limited playing time.

Williams will face the Titans run defense which has allowed five total touchdowns to running backs in its past two games. This includes a game in which they allowed over 230 yards of offense and three touchdown to the Chargers’ banged up group of running backs, so there is definitely the potential for Williams to do more of that this week. Still, we have to expect that the Redskins will do a lot more passing this week than they do running and that doesn’t sit very well for Williams’ fantasy potential.

Projections:
Donovan McNabb – 240 yards passing / 2 TD / 2 INT
Keiland Williams – 45 yards rushing / 0 TD / 5 yards receiving
Santana Moss – 65 yards receiving / 1 TD
Anthony Armstrong – 75 yards receiving / 1 TD
Chris Cooley – 65 yards receiving / 0 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Vince Young will be back in at quarterback this week as he recovers from an ankle injury. Young has done an excellent job this season of avoiding interceptions while still moving the ball down the field—something that was a problem for him early in his career. Young has thrown 8 touchdowns in his past six games while throwing just one interception over that span, making him a surprisingly decent fantasy start as long as he’s not knocked out of the game with an injury.

Better yet, Young and the Titans’ passing attack may have their best fantasy matchup of the season this week as they face the Redskins defense that is fresh off of allowing the biggest fantasy game to an opposing quarterback in the history of the NFL. Mike Vick’s four passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns are an inspiring statistic for those who still like to compare the Titans’ young quarterback to Vick. Still, Young’s rushing ability is not on the level of Vick’s and he has not rushed for more than 30 yards in a single game this season. If you’re in a bind, Young does have some upside, but don’t expect the Redskins to make the same mistakes they did last week. We could still see some deep passes to Randy Moss and/or Nate Washington, however, so big plays are still a strong possibility.

Running Game Thoughts: Many consider Titans running back Chris Johnson to be the best in the league, but after a record-breaking 2009 season, his 2010 season has left his owners with a bit of a disappointment. Still, Johnson has scored 13-or-more fantasy points in six of his first nine games this season and ranks 4th among running backs in fantasy points for the year. As long as he is healthy, Johnson is an every-week must start regardless of his opponent.

Johnson’s fantasy potential is higher now with Randy Moss in the offense, pulling safeties in his direction and keeping their eyes out of the backfield. The Redskins were abused repeatedly by deep passes against the Eagles and they will presumably be looking to cut down on that this week as they face Randy Moss, who may be the best deep-pass receiver of all-time. This is good news for Chris Johnson who should have more holes opened up for him than normal. The Redskins have only allowed four rushing touchdowns this season, but Johnson is a good bet to bring that number to five this week.

Projections:
Vince Young – 220 yards passing / 2 TD / 1 INT / 20 yards rushing
Chris Johnson – 125 yards rushing / 1 TD / 15 yards receiving
Randy Moss – 50 yards receiving / 1 TD
Nate Washington – 60 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Redskins 17, Titans 27

Seahawks @ Saints - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Seattle’s seesaw 2010 season continued last week as they dominated their division rival Cardinals in Arizona. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck led the charge, passing for a season-high 333 yards and a touchdown. Hasselbeck came into the game with an injured wrist on his throwing arm but played through the pain. He has been battling the same injury throughout practice this week, but is expected to start again this week.

The Seahawks will have their hands full as they try to pass on the Saints’ secondary which currently ranks 2nd in the league in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed just one passing touchdown in their pass five games combined and have kept opposing quarterbacks under five fantasy points in the four games that they didn’t allow a touchdown. That said, receiver Mike Williams has come alive as of late and had his third game of 10 or more receptions in his past five games last week. There is definitely still some upside for Williams, but the rest of this passing attack should be avoided like the plague.

Running Game Thoughts: With just 84 yards rushing over his past three games combined, Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch has looked extremely poor as of late. It probably doesn’t help much that the Seahawks have been the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of the NFL this season, but Lynch just doesn’t look like himself out there. Meanwhile, in limited work, Justin Forsett has looked like the far more explosive back. Nevertheless, the Seahawks did trade for Lynch and will likely still continue to give him the majority of the team’s carries.

The Saints’ run defense hasn’t been nearly as great as their pass defense this season, but they have certainly been better over their past five games than they were in their first four. After allowing 98 fantasy points to opposing running backs in their first four games, the Saints have allowed just 46 in their past five. They did, however, let Mike Goodson crack the 100-yard mark, so there is the chance that the Seahawks’ running back duo could do some damage this week—albeit a slight one.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck – 210 yards passing / 1 TD / 2 INT
Marshawn Lynch – 50 yards rushing / 1 TD
Justin Forsett – 35 yards receiving / 0 TD / 30 yards receiving
Mike Williams – 90 yards receiving / 1 TD
John Carlson – 20 yards receiving / 0 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: With over 250 yards passing in each game and multiple touchdowns in five straight games, New Orleans Saints star quarterback Drew Brees should be well on his way to battling for another league MVP trophy. The problem is that he has also been his own worst enemy over that time, throwing 10 interceptions in the process. Still, unless you’re in a league that penalizes heavily for interceptions, Brees remains one of the game’s elite fantasy quarterbacks. He’s coming off a bye and the team should be the healthiest it has been since the beginning of the season.

Brees faces the Seahawks’ pass defense which has allowed 290 or more passing yards in three straight games. Prior to that stretch, though, the Seahawks had held their previous two opposing quarterbacks scoreless—again, another example of the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of this entire team. Brees will need to keep up the big passing numbers as the Saints have struggled to run the ball without Pierre Thomas in the lineup. He could have Reggie Bush back, though, and that could help alleviate some of the pressure from Brees.

Running Game Thoughts: Rumors are circulating that Reggie Bush could be back this week. Bush has missed the past seven games with a fractured fibula, but has not been rushed back into action. Though he is not the best between-the-tackles runner, Bush adds an element to the Saints offense that they have been lacking in as a short-yardage receiver and an unbelievably difficult matchup problem for opposing defenses. Whether or not he plays, though, the Saints will still likely give the majority of the carries to running back Chris Ivory. Ivory hasn’t scored a touchdown yet this season and has only broken 70 yards rushing once, though, so his value remains very limited.

Whoever is carrying the ball for the Saints will have a chance to do some damage, though, as the Seahawks defense ranks 26th in the league in stopping opposing running backs. They have allowed at least one rushing touchdown in five straight games, including allowing a 201 yard, two touchdown game to the Giants’ running backs just two weeks ago. If Reggie Bush does play, expect lots of passes to him as the Seahawks have been miserable at stopping opposing running backs in the passing game. They have allowed 35-or-more receiving yards to opposing running backs in six of their nine games this season.

Projections:
Drew Brees – 305 yards passing / 2 TD / 2 INT
Reggie Bush – 25 yards rushing / 0 TD / 35 yards receiving / 1 TD
Chris Ivory – 40 yards rushing / 0 TD
Marques Colston – 80 yards receiving / 1 TD
Lance Moore – 45 yards receiving / 0 TD
Robert Meachem – 55 yards receiving / 0 TD
Devery Henderson – 40 yards receiving / 0 TD
Jeremy Shockey – 25 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Seahawks 14, Saints 20

Buccaneers @ 49ers - (Eakin)
Coming soon.