Every year, rest assured someone at some point during each of
your drafts will utter some variation of the words “value
pick.” But what exactly is a value pick? What is value?
Value is a relative term that changes based on public perception.
When I consider value, I’m looking for a positive return
on my investment. Just because a player has an a 4th round ADP
and is still available in the 6th round does not make him good
value. At the same time, taking a player a round or two above
his ADP is not necessarily bad value.
My goal in every pick I make is to take a player I believe will
have a higher ADP the following season. Last season, Devonta
Freeman had an 8th round ADP. This year, he has a 2nd round
ADP. Freeman gave owners one hell of a positive return on investment.
On the flip side, Jeremy
Hill had a 2nd round ADP. This year, he has a 6th round ADP.
That’s the type of pick we all hope to avoid.
Let’s take a look at which wide receivers I expect to outperform
and underperform their ADPs.
Even with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick back, Eric
Decker (ADP WR26) is being undervalued by fantasy owners.
The case for Decker being undervalued:
He was a top 15 WR last year and with Fitzpatrick under contract,
there’s no reason to believe his usage will change.
The case against Decker being undervalued:
His output relied too much on touchdowns and the Jets face a tougher
schedule this year.
Verdict: The amount of disrespect
being shown to Decker is mindboggling. His ADP has actually risen
over the past month and has barely cracked the 4th round. Decker
played in 15 games in 2015 and had 80 yards or a touchdown in
all of them. He never had a multi-touchdown game and his highest
receiving total was 101 yards, but the guy was the epitome of
reliable. Decker ranked in the top ten for consistency among wide
receivers and was a red zone favorite of Ryan
Fitzpatrick. The Jets have the best receiving duo in the NFL
and considering they soak up a high percentage of the teams’ wide
receiver targets (67% in 2015), their fantasy value is secure.
Even if Decker suffers some mild touchdown regression, he is still
a mid-level WR2. The fact that he is being drafted as a WR3 represents
incredible value.
The case for Lockett being undervalued:
Lockett is a playmaker in an elite offense and saw his workload
steadily increase towards the end of 2015.
The case against Lockett being undervalued:
It’s possible Seattle returns to being a run oriented offense
via Thomas
Rawls and can’t support two fantasy relevant receivers.
Verdict: I was grasping at straws
for a reason why Lockett isn’t undervalued. I can’t remember the
last time I was this confident about a player at his current ADP.
Lockett isn’t just undervalued; he is at least three rounds undervalued.
He skyrocketed up Seattle’s depth chart last season because he’s
just that damn good. Initially drafted as a gadget/return man,
Lockett impressed coaches and players in training camp, practice,
and the preseason, forcing his way into the receiving rotation.
If not for Doug
Baldwin’s remarkable (and unsustainable) touchdown rate, Lockett
might have entered this season as Seattle’s No.1 WR. From weeks
13-16 last season, Lockett saw 7 targets each game. I expect that
to be the norm in 2016. Lockett is more talented than Baldwin
and the best part is you don’t have to draft him as a starter.
The ceiling is high and the risk is low. I will own as many shares
of Lockett as I can and I recommend you do the same as I fully
expect him to be a 3rd our 4th-round selection in 2017 redraft
leagues.
The case for Matthews being undervalued:
He’s currently operating as the Titans’ No.1 WR and he is being
selected in the 14th round.
The case against Matthews being undervalued:
I don’t think it’s possible for a player going in the 14th round
to be undervalued – at worst he is properly valued and ends up
irrelevant.
Verdict: Matthews only played in
ten games last season (I’m not counting his final game against
the Jets where his season ended with an injury), but he was a
useful part of fantasy lineups in eight of them. An underrated
and underutilized talent, Matthews is getting his chance to be
a featured receiver in Tennessee. The Titans brought him in with
a purpose and there’s a reason he immediately began running with
the first team ahead of Dorial
Green-Beckham, Kendall
Wright, Harry
Douglas, and Justin
Hunter. Matthews had 50 yards or a touchdown in those eight
useful games last season and proved to everyone that he can succeed
if given the opportunity. There’s a risk Mike Mularkey saps some
of the value out of the Titans’ passing game due to his “run-run-run”
philosophy. Fortunately for us, the Titans aren’t very good so
it may prove difficult to execute his “exotic smash-mouth” game
plan when the team is trailing by multiple scores in the second
half. I expect Matthews to quickly emerge as Marcus
Mariota’s favorite target and completely obliterate his present
ADP. Even if he’s a WR4/bye week filler, he’s a top-48 wide receiver
– and you’d be hard pressed to find that kind of contribution
in the 14th round. Reach a round or two for him to make sure you
don’t miss out.
The case for Evans being overvalued:
Evans has a problem with drops and more concerning, a relatively
inexperienced quarterback.
The case against Evans being overvalued:
I’m totally wrong on Winston and the Bucs offense takes a step
forward with Evans being the primary beneficiary.
Verdict: I love Mike Evans the
player. The drops are a problem, but he wouldn’t be the first
elite wide receiver to struggle with drops and won’t be the last.
So while the drops certainly contributed to Evans’ deplorable
50 percent catch rate in 2015, they weren’t the sole issue. I’ve
been catching a lot of heat from friends and on forums for my
anti-Jameis
Winston position because he is a mainstream media darling
and everyone looks at him with an eye of optimism. I see a mechanically
flawed quarterback that is best at haphazardly heaving the ball
in Evans’ general direction. Winston does not read defenses well
and appears to make decisions regarding where and when to throw
the ball before the ball is snapped even if the defense has a
clear read on his primary target. The Bucs are going to open up
with a nice offensive performance against the Falcons and “the
year of Jameis” will be upon us. Then four of the top ten defenses
in the NFL come calling in weeks 2-5 (ARI, LAR, DEN, CAR). Winston
struggled against most of the quality defenses he faced in 2015.
I think he gets exposed this season and he drags Evans down with
him. With another quarterback, I’d be all in on Evans as a low-end
WR1/high-end WR2. Perhaps that will come in 2017. It likely won’t
be this year and for that reason, I see Evans as a low-end WR2
and quite overvalued as the current WR10 in redraft leagues.
The case for Benjamin being overvalued:
He was good as a rookie, but was inefficient and hasn’t played
football since 2014.
The case against Benjamin being overvalued:Cam
Newton looked like the best QB in the league last year and
Benjamin will now be Newton’s top target once again.
Verdict: I don’t know if Benjamin
is that overvalued in the wide receiver realm. What I do know
is that there are at least a dozen other players I’d rather have
in the late-third/early-fourth round. There are a handful of receivers
going after Benjamin that I like more, but not enough to say taking
Benjamin over them is absurd. The problem is paying a premium
draft pick for a player who has struggled with drops and conditioning,
playing for a run-first team with a QB capable of succeeding with
seemingly anyone at the receiver position.. That’s not to say
Benjamin isn’t the best receiver on the Panthers – he is – it’s
just that he’s not a critical component of their offense. He’s
a luxury. I’d be quite scared to take a receiver in the third
round that isn’t crucial to his team’s passing success. Benjamin
is coming off a torn ACL and while there shouldn’t be any worry
about his recovery, the fact remains he has played one NFL season
in two years. He had five games where he completely disappeared
with three catches or fewer and just one total touchdown. Best
case scenario, Benjamin delivers a WR2 performance in 2016 and
his ADP remains the same for 2017. Worst case scenario, he remains
inconsistent and plagued by drops, returning fifth or sixth round
value leaving your fantasy team in quite the bind.
The case for Gordon being overvalued:
His games-suspended to games-played ratio over the past two seasons
is 4:1.
The case against Gordon being overvalued:
He finished as the No.1 wide receiver in 2013 playing in just
14 games.
Verdict: I will forever remember
Gordon for carrying one of my 2013 teams to a championship. For
that, Josh, I thank you. But need I remind everyone that was three
years ago. Since then, Gordon has played in exactly five games,
all in 2014, the latter three of which you could combine and they
weren’t as good collectively as his first game in 2014 was by
itself. I remember when everyone expected Gordon to come back
after his suspension and immediately be Josh Gordon again – as
if not playing for the first 11 weeks somehow wouldn’t matter.
Fast forward two years and here we are again with people suffering
from the same delusions of grandeur. Gordon will have been suspended
for a total of 20 consecutive games when (if?) he returns to the
field Week 5. For starters, I’d be remiss to not address the fact
that Gordon still has to stay out of trouble between now and October.
Assuming he does, it will have been almost two full years since
Gordon played competitive professional football. When he was going
in Round 9, that was fine. But in Round 6 and still trending higher
(I expect the hype train to push him in the fifth soon enough),
you are now drafting Gordon no longer hoping for magic in a bottle,
but needing it to happen. I completely understand the allure,
but I believe it’s foolish to think Gordon can come back and instantly
be the WR1 he was in 2013. The price is too rich for my blood.
