Just one short year ago, I offered my
strategy on how to gain a competitive advantage for the 2016
fantasy football season. If you followed my advice and went with
an RB-heavy approach, you were probably handsomely rewarded. At
the very least, you probably avoided disasters like Brandon
Marshall, Allen
Robinson, and DeAndre
Hopkins. The reason that my call to go RB-heavy was so effective
was not because it was some innovative concept I had just come up
with – far from it. It was because of how anomalous 2015 was for
both wide receiver production and poor running back production.
There was a natural expectation that running backs would rebound
and boy did they ever.
That leads us into the reason we’re all here: what should we do
in 2017 to gain that competitive advantage in our drafts? First
things first: It’s a new year and as much as I’d love to tell you
to go and grab two running backs with your first three picks, there
are too few at the position to feel confident in, making it simply
the wrong strategy to take. Perhaps we should not try
and bend the strategy. Instead, only try and realize the truth…there
is no strategy.
So what exactly does that mean? Using current
ADP, there are 12 running backs going in the first two rounds,
11 wide receivers and one Gronk. We have reached a point of equilibrium
in positional valuation between RBs and WRs. Yes, having an elite
running back will always be better than an elite wide receiver because
of position scarcity, but in terms of actual ability to produce
fantasy points: wide receivers are just as good as running backs.
With so much uncertainly don't force an
early pick based on a perceived need at any one position.
Despite the RB renaissance of 2016, the RB resurgence wasn’t as
strong as you may think. There were actually more wide receivers
in the top 24 than running backs (15-9) in non-QB PPR scoring. The
perception is a bit skewed due to the cataclysmic failure of pre-season
top 12 wide receivers like DeAndre
Hopkins, Allen
Robinson, Keenan
Allen and Brandon
Marshall. Just like I advised everyone not to overreact to the
WR boom of 2015, you must refrain from overreacting to the WR failure
of 2016.
Last year, there was a decided advantage to be gained by foregoing
the best player available in the early rounds in order to take an
RB due to the huge point disparity between early- and late-round
RBs. The edge you would gain was worth it. That’s not the
case this year. But it’s also not the case that you should
take a WR over an RB if the RB is the best player on your board.
This year’s strategy is less about formula and more about
individual player analysis.
Let’s take a look at Melvin Gordon, Devonta Freeman, A.J. Green and Mike Evans. Last year, if you were picking towards the
end of Round 1, I would’ve suggested you go with the RB (Gordon
or Freeman) no matter where you had those players ranked on your
board. This year, you should take the player you’re most comfortable
with regardless of position.
In fact, in the early rounds, your player tiers should not necessarily
be separated by position. There’s a consensus “big three” at both
premium skill positions: David
Johnson, Le’Veon
Bell, and LeSean
McCoy at RB (replacing Ezekiel
Elliott) and Antonio
Brown, Julio
Jones, and Odell
Beckham Jr. at WR. Those are your three best players and should
be your “Tier 1.” Which one you take is up to you and your personal
evaluations of players.
After Tier 1, it becomes far less defined. Obviously you can delineate
your tiers however you see fit, but for the purpose of this explanation,
here is my Tier 2: DeMarco
Murray, A.J.
Green, Jordy
Nelson and Mike
Evans. If all of my Tier 1 players are gone, I am taking one
of these four. And while I still would argue the “tie goes to the
running back,” it’s not as clear cut as last year. If Evans is at
the top of this tier, then don’t worry about passing on the running
back as once you get past the top two tiers, the level of uncertainty
regarding all players skyrockets.
As an example, currently third round running backs are Lamar
Miller, Marshawn
Lynch, Isaiah
Crowell, and Dalvin
Cook. We have one of 2016’s biggest disappointments (which,
not to toot my own horn, I did warn you about), a 32 year-old
who hasn’t played since 2015, a guy on the Browns, and a rookie
in a bad offense in a potential three-way timeshare whose ADP
has spiked as a result of two strong preseason games. Some question
marks to be sure.
But WR isn’t much better. Wide receivers in Round 3 typically
include DeAndre
Hopkins, Terrelle
Pryor, Demaryius
Thomas, and Keenan
Allen. We have one of 2016’s biggest busts, a converted quarterback
on a new team, a 30 year-old that hasn’t been elite since Peyton
Manning was around, and a guy who has played 9 games over the
past two seasons. I can’t, in good conscience, tell you that one
position is objectively more valuable than another. Take the player
you think is best, regardless of position.
One more thing: The way you’re going
to be successful in your draft this year is by understanding the
uncertainty regarding player valuations and ADP. Once you get
into the middle stages of your draft, it’s time to throw caution
to the wind and trust your own knowledge. Do not be afraid to
“reach” for players. If someone is the top player on your board,
but you know his ADP is two rounds later, don’t wait. Do not miss
out on your guy because your ADP source you told you it was too
early to pick him.
Here’s a pitfall I’ve succumbed to in mocks that
I wish to help you avoid. Many of the players I like after Round
5 all have ADPs of Round 8 or 9. If I don’t take one of
the three or four players I covet in Round 6, what happens? We
get to Rounds 7 and 8 and all of a sudden, the top players on
my board have become the top players available and I’ve
now locked myself out of the ability to get them all simply because
I was afraid to “reach” in Round 6. Instead, I took
a player I valued lower because the consensus valued him higher.
It doesn’t make sense. Go ahead and take the players high
on your board without fear of ADP.
If you’re looking for a yellow brick road to victory this
year, you’re not going to find one. The key to this year
is to not go into your draft with a set strategy. You may end
up going RB-RB-RB. You may end up going Zero-RB. You may end up
taking a QB or TE early (or both). Your success will come from
creating value based on your own player evaluations, allowing
you to adapt to whatever the draft room presents.
