I’ve been barking out Moncrief’s name to whoever will listen
during this fantasy draft prep season. It’s going to be easy for
some of the less-than-prepared owners to overlook Indianapolis
Colt players this year. Their offense struggled mightily last
season after Andrew
Luck’s injury in Week 7 against Denver. Luck tossed 15 TDs
in those seven games, and the combination of Matt
Hasselbeck, Charlie
Whitehurst, Josh
Freeman and Ryan
Lindley totaled 11 in the nine games they played. Those struggles
at quarterback naturally filtered down to the receiver position.
As a result, players like Moncrief and T.Y.
Hilton had forgettable seasons.
Moncrief and his Indy offensive teammates enter 2016 positioned
to carve out a stellar season. TE Coby
Fleener has gone on to the Saints, and Andre
Johnson has a tenuous hold of a roster spot with the Titans.
The 161 targets those two received in 2015 have to go somewhere.
Hilton will indeed remain the deep threat, but Moncrief could
begin taking over as the team’s undisputed go-to weapon. He was
second to Hilton in targets, receptions and receiving yards. Don’t
be surprised if those roles are reversed by season’s end.
There is little doubt that Keenan Allen is the unquestioned top
target in San Diego. If healthy, we could be viewing him as a
top-5 fantasy receiver at this time next year. But Gates, who
turned 35 in June, should not be overlooked. Sure, his reception
numbers have dropped each of the past three seasons, but here’s
why you should have Gates on your radar. Philip Rivers has voiced
his desire to get Gates the career touchdown receiving record
for a tight end. He needs eight to surpass Tony Gonzalez, and
Rivers has promised Gates that he will do everything in his power
to help him.
The one caveat about Gates, besides his age, is he will have
the greatest impact in TD-only leagues. PPR owners should perhaps
stay away from him. Assuming he stays healthy, I would expect
him to come close to duplicating his 2014 season when he went
for 69 receptions and 12 scores. The 12 scores seem a bit ambitious,
but with a QB poised to do the things necessary to get Gates beyond
seven TDs, maybe it’s not so farfetched.
I recall with much fondness Stafford’s breakout season in 2011.
I drafted him in the 10th round that year, and all he did was
lead me to a championship. His 5,038 yards and 41 TDs were both
career highs, but the three years following that season found
the former No.1 overall pick floundering in mediocrity. Stafford
regained his footing during the second half of 2015. That’s when
the team replaced Joe Lombardi with Jim Bob Cooter after the Week
9 bye. Stafford closed out the season strong under Cooter’s guidance,
tossing 17 TDs in the final seven games after throwing only 15
in the season’s first nine games.
Cooter returns for a full season at OC, and Stafford will benefit
greatly. The team will incorporate an uptempo offense that will
feature a lot of intermediate routes. Detroit is a pass-first
offense; the numbers since 2009 prove it. In those seven years,
the Lions have been in the top-5 in pass attempts six times—including
twice leading the league in pass attempts in 2011 and 2012. Needless
to say, Stafford will get ample opportunity to put up gaudy numbers.
Many owners, though, have him low on their cheatsheet—perhaps
due in large measure to Calvin Johnson’s retirement. But
Stafford can easily throw 30-plus TDs again this season, and with
the bargain price tag it will take to get him, I’d say the
return on your investment will be substantial.
Remember how Blake
Bortles and that Jacksonville offense surprised NFL fans and
fantasy owners alike last year? I expect a similar metamorphosis
from Winston and the Tampa Bay offense this year. New head coach
Dirk Koetter is a quarterback-centric offensive coach. Koetter,
the Bucs’ offensive coordinator in 2015, will give Winston every
opportunity to produce. We can look at his time as Atlanta’s OC
from 2012 – 2014. They ranked 8th, 3rd and 3rd in pass attempts
in those three seasons. With Lovie Smith as Tampa Bay’s head coach
last year, being the defensive, run-first coach he is, the team
ranked 22nd in pass attempts.
It was obvious they wanted to bring Winston along slowly. Even
with the limited opportunities, he still carved out 28 total touchdowns,
including six rushing scores. The training wheels will come off.
Winston reportedly worked with receiver Mike Evans during the
offseason. I expect those two to have monster years, much like
how Bortles and Allen Robinson came from nowhere last season and
took the fantasy world by storm. Winston enters 2016 as a mid-level
QB2, but I suspect he will morph into a weekly starter well before
Halloween.
Langford became one of those coveted midseason pick-ups last
season after Matt
Forte missed a couple games. While he didn’t remind many people
of Barry Sanders, he at least held his own—the San Diego and St.
Louis games in Weeks 8 and 9 come to mind. Forte, of course, is
now with the Jets, leaving the bulk of the running game in Chicago
to Langford.
We know head coach John Fox is going to get off the bus running
the football, especially with the erratic Jay Cutler under center.
Cutler’s enigmatic play, coupled with Chicago’s lack
of a top-end defense, puts the onus squarely on Langford’s
shoulders. It may very well be one of those years in Chicago where
the team decides to slow the game down with a run-oriented offense
much like the Cowboys did last year. Langford could be the beneficiary
of that philosophy. But not only is he serviceable in the running
game, he’s an able-bodied receiver out of the backfield.
He’s being drafted as a borderline RB2/RB3, but I think
his upside, considering the offensive limitations in Chicago,
is considerable.
Imagine Morris’ surprise when the Cowboys announced Ezekiel
Elliott as the 4th overall selection in this year’s draft.
Morris signed with Dallas before the draft, I’m sure having licked
his chops after realizing brittle Darren
McFadden racked up 1,400 total yards last season for Big D.
Elliott’s selection doesn’t necessarily rule out Morris’ fantasy
relevance, however. The rookie tweaked a hamstring during the
first week of training camp that kept him out of practice for
multiple days. Whether or not that lingers into the season is
anyone’s guess, but those hamstrings can be tricky subjects for
fantasy owners.
At the absolute least, Morris is a must-have for Elliott owners.
An absolute MUST. In fact, I’d venture to say his inclusion
here is exclusively for Elliott owners. Morris displayed a glimpse
of the vision and overall skill during the preseason game against
Miami that made him a fantasy darling in Washington during his
rookie season of 2012. He’s no slouch. But Elliot will and
should be given every opportunity to thrive. And just in case
the rookie hits the wall or simply encounters the bumps and bruises
that come with an NFL season, Morris will be there to pick up
the pieces. It bears repeating: if you are an Elliott owner, make
it your business to get Morris—even if you have to get him
a round (or two) early.
