There is a perception among some in the fantasy football universe that running backs have greater likelihood of being “busts” than wide receivers. This has led to a wider use of an early wide receiver draft strategy.

As a subscriber to this theory, I took on the task of exploring running back bust rates with a mindset that I already knew the results. I expected to get a few years of data, put it in a spreadsheet, then confirm what I already thought I knew: preseason RB1s tend to bust at an annoying rate.

Before we get into the numbers, we need to define what a “bust” actually is. I consider an RB1 to be a “bust” if he finishes worse than 36th at the position. Since most leagues these days start at least two running backs and one flex, a top 36 reflects a list of players that at least provide value in a starting lineup even if they don’t live up to their RB1 expectation. All ADP data is from Fantasy Football Calculator, using late summer drafts to most accurately reflect ADP for that given season. I used drafts from the last four years to give myself a few years of information to work with.

For the purposes of this study, I removed Adrian Peterson’s 2014 information from the chart, as there was no way to factor a season-long suspension into a draft day decision. I did not, however, remove any players that may be defined busts solely due to a season ending injury. This means, for example, Jamaal Charles’ 2011 season that was cut short in Week 2 is included. He may not be a bust in the classic definition of being a bad player, but in the eyes of anyone that used a first round pick on him, he was a bust.

First, I’ll breakdown the numbers. At the end, I’ll examine what it means for you as you enter your fantasy drafts for the 2015 season.

This table came to be a bit of a surprise to me. Only five busts in four years doesn’t fit in with what I was expecting. This means over 90% of the time you use an early pick on a running back, he is at least able to contribute to your lineup.

That’s not exactly what you want out of your top pick, which is why I also broke down the data into smaller categories. Top 12 of course signifies a RBI finish, Top 24 says they finished as an RB1 or RB2, and Top 36 means at least they didn’t bust. According to our findings here, you can expect to get an RB1 about 55.3 percent of the time when you draft a top 12 ADP running back. On top of that, you have a greater than 70 percent chance of coming up with a running back who should return RB2 value at worst.

It doesn’t sound ideal to say you got an RB2 out of your early pick, but it’s only a disaster of epic proportions if you wind up with a bust. As it turns out, that doesn’t happen as often as you’d think at the running back position.

For some perspective on the matter, I decided to do a similar study of wide receivers. Knowing the bust rate of running backs takes on more value when you compare it to the other main position taken during the first two rounds of most drafts.

I’ll be honest, this isn’t what I expected. Preseason WR1s and RB1s tend to finish as WR1s and RB1s at just about the same rate. And the numbers are similar for returning at least a top 24 season. Part of the appeal of taking wide receivers in the first two rounds is they supposedly have a higher percentage chance at returning value, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.

The real eye opener for me is the number of busts at the wide receiver position. The idea that nearly 20 percent of the time when you use an early pick on a wide receiver he’s going to flat out bust, is a scary thought.

Based on my findings to this point, it would appear that your best bet is to return to the “old fashion” method of RB/RB to kick off your draft. Given the same likelihood of actually drafting a top 12 player from either the RB or WR position, it would seem you have to factor in the bust rates as the kicker, and these numbers tell me you are safer going with a running back.

Before wrapping up my datasets, I decided I needed to know if the numbers change when we focus on the elite of the elite. When I say “elite of the elite,” I’m talking about players drafted in the top 5 of their position. Here is what the breakdown looks like for both positions:

Interestingly, the numbers shift a lot when we focus on the biggest studs. Across the board, top five wide receivers have been a better option than top five running backs.

Top running backs are still slightly safer than their lower ADP counterparts in terms of achieving RB1 or RB2 status, but apparently there’s a massive difference when it comes to the wide receiver position. I broke down the rest of the RB1 and WR1 tier to visualize those differences.

We’re dealing with a smaller sample of players once it’s broken down into two sets, but I find it very interesting that the bust percentage drops when we focus on the second tier of the RB1s. In fact, the only category in which the top running backs beat out the “lesser” RB1s is in top 12 finishes. This tells me that there is more upside in getting a top tier running back, but there’s no extra safety in doing so.

As for wide receiver: I can’t explain it, but something happens to the position once you exit the “stud” or top 5 tier. Running backs remain relatively strong through all the RB1s, but the same can’t be said at wide receiver.

What does this mean for drafting in 2015?

Choosing Jeremy Hill over Megatron is the safest bet.

In the first round, it appears that the greatest upside and safety comes from the top tier wide receivers (ADP WRs 1-5). As of now, that would mean targeting Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas or Odell Beckham Jr. with your first round pick. However, I don’t think the numbers came back as lopsided in favor of wide receivers as I assumed they would. I’d still encourage trying to get your hands on one of those five aforementioned receivers, but I’m not as anti-first round running back as I might have been before I researched the data.

For me, this data has a far greater impact on how I will approach the second and early-third round of my draft. This is where you’ll find all of the “6-12” category players. I’m not going so far as to say that you should take the RB12 (Justin Forsett) over the WR6 (Calvin Johnson), but where it’s close, I’m taking the running back.

Sticking with Johnson for a second, let’s make an example out of him. In standard league ADP, he is going in between DeMarco Murray and Jeremy Hill. In PPR ADP, he’s sandwiched between Matt Forte and C.J. Anderson. Before this study, I would have found myself going with Johnson in all those scenarios. After? I have to say I’m taking the running back.

Near the end of the WR1 tier is where I would begin to question how early I want to invest in the wide receiver, depending on which running back is available. I’m not declaring these players undraftable by any means, but I would make sure the ADP RB1s are completely off the board before considering players like Alshon Jeffery (WR10), T.Y. Hilton (WR11) and Mike Evans (WR12).

As I wrap up, I realize I left out Rob Gronkowski. Given his dominance at the position, some believe grabbing the clear top tight end is more important than making sure you get your hands on the top ranked running backs and wide receivers. That is certainly a sound strategy that I can’t argue with but doesn’t fit the RB-WR comparison I choose to tackle in this article.

I also understand than the definition of a “bust” isn’t a specifically defined term in fantasy football. It’s loosely thrown around in conversation but seems to have a different meaning for everyone. Even if you don’t agree with my definition, the numbers above should help you determine how to get the biggest bang for your buck out of your top draft picks.