In just a few days, the free agency period begins in the NFL. We
have already seen some major moves that will change the landscape
of fantasy football, and that’s only the beginning.
In the weeks leading up to the March 10th, I have been taking
a look at some of the most interesting names currently slated
to hit free agency at each of the skill positions (quarterback,
running back, wide receiver and tight end). I am pairing each
player with a team I think would be a best-case scenario for his
fantasy value. I have already taken a look at the Quarterback,
Wide Receiver and Tight
End positions. Today, I will examine the Running Backs. I
present them in alphabetical order, as this is not a ranking article.
The pairings may not all be 100 percent realistic, but not out
of the realm of possibility. For example, I don’t know if
the Jaguars are actually looking for a new starting running back
with Toby Gerhart and Denard Robinson around, and I don’t
know if the Detroit Lions actually see the need to upgrade from
Theo Riddick.
There are a lot of interesting names available at running back
this offseason, and there are plenty of opportunities for them
to find a place to succeed for their new teams (and more importantly,
for us in fantasy football).
After a 2014 where he finally got his chance to be the lead back
in an offense, Justin Forsett has earned the right to lead a backfield
again in 2015. With Gary Kubiak gone from Baltimore, it seems
Forsett would be best suited to seek out another offensive coordinator
that could get the best out of him. That man could be the new
offensive coordinator with the New York Jets: Chan Gailey.
In Gailey’s final two years as head coach in Buffalo, Fred Jackson
and C.J. Spiller each had a season of finishing in the top seven
in FPts/G at running back. Each of those seasons, Jackson and
Spiller combined for over 70 receptions and averaged over five
yards per carry. Jackson (2011) and Spiller (2012) each had their
career high in yards per carry average under Gailey.
All of that information adds up to great things for Forsett as
a member of the Jets. Forsett has always been a solid receiving
back, and he would likely get the majority of the looks through
the air with Chris Ivory not being much of a receiving back. Forsett
hasn’t averaged less than 5.2 yards per rush since 2011 and averaged
5.4 in his first full year as a starter, and Gailey’s time in
Buffalo proved he can be a boost to that stat for running backs.
He may not get drafted like it this summer, but if Forsett joins
the New York Jets, there is a clear path to a second straight
season of RB1 status for him in fantasy football.
Andre Ellington and the Cardinals offense were not a perfect
match in 2014. Ellington only managed to average 3.3 yards per
carry before getting hurt in the 12th game of the year. I do not
think this means Ellington is bad, I think it means Ellington
needs a partner in crime in the Arizona backfield. That’s where
Frank Gore comes in.
Gore joining the Cardinals would benefit both Gore and Ellington.
For Ellington, he would be allowed to return to a role similar
to the one he played in 2013 when he teamed with Rashard Mendenhall.
As for Gore, he could fill in the between the tackles role that
Bruce Arians and company tried to force out of Ellington in 2014.
If the Cardinals can keep the offense on the field in 2015 with
a hopefully healthy Carson Palmer, there’s no reason why Gore
couldn’t match the 255 carries he had in San Francisco in 2014,
while still allowing Ellington to get 200 touches of his own via
the run and the pass. That combination would have the potential
to give us two weekly fantasy starters from the Arizona backfield.
Roy Helu was quietly a pretty good fantasy option in 2014 PPR
leagues. He actually scored only 1.8 fewer FPts/G than much more
widely used teammate Alfred Morris, despite only 40 carries on
the season. Barring an injury to Morris, however, there’s no real
room for Helu to increase his role. The perfect place for him
to see that increase is with the New England Patriots.
If Helu were to take on the “Shane Vereen role” in New England,
that alone would likely mean a significant increase in both carries
and receiving targets. If Helu could find his way to 31st in scoring
in PPR leagues in Washington’s offense, flirting with the top
20 seems like an easy proposition getting double the touches playing
in a far superior Patriots offense.
Editor's Note: Ingram
re-signed with the Saints shortly after this article was posted.
When I started writing this article, the Eagles were off the
list of teams in need of a running back. I guess that changed.
Philadelphia has its pass catcher in Darren Sproles, so what it
really needs is a between the tackles runner, a great spot for
Mark Ingram.
Slotting Ingram into the role LeSean McCoy played in 2014 would
mean great things for the former Saint. McCoy was given 314 rush
attempts and 39 targets through the air. Ingram got 36 targets
last season and nearly matched McCoy’s receiving line, so he wouldn’t
necessarily hurt the Eagles offense when asked to be a receiver.
Last season, Ingram managed to finish 14th in fantasy scoring
– two spots behind McCoy – despite seeing 88 less carries.
After four years of never getting an opportunity to take on a
heavy workload in New Orleans, Ingram would finally have an opportunity
to achieve true RB1 status in fantasy leagues as a member of the
Philadelphia Eagles.
Ryan Mathews is a talented running back who could be overlooked
in this large group of available running backs as free agency
gets underway. The knock on Mathews has always been his health
– he has only played one full 16- game season and he has
played in 12 or less in three of his five years in the pros. That
doesn’t mean he can’t help a team.
The Indianapolis Colts are on the verge of contending for Super
Bowls, but they desperately need help at running back. Daniel
Herron was nice, but he’s not the answer. Ahmad Bradshaw has injury
problems of his own (and now legal troubles), and Trent Richardson
is Trent Richardson. If Mathews came to Indianapolis, he would
become the lead ball carrier in a high-powered offense, a role
that usually means good things for fantasy football. Depending
on what the Colts do with Bradshaw, Mathews could find himself
a big part of the passing game – something that was lacking during
his final two seasons in San Diego.
Mathews has finished in the top 24 in FPts/G at running back
three times in the last four seasons, and with a new high- scoring
offense and perhaps a little more luck in the health department,
Mathews can continue his run as a when-healthy RB2, with the upside
of returning to his RB1 form of 2011.
In 2014, Knowshon Moreno was averaging nearly five yards per
carry in the Dolphins offense before succumbing to a season- ending
injury. After his top- five fantasy performance in 2013 and solid
start to 2014, it’s clear all Moreno needs is a chance.
The Jacksonville Jaguars can provide that opportunity.
Toby Gerhart didn’t appear to be the answer in his first year
with the Jaguars. Denard Robinson set the world ablaze for a small
stretch when he got his opportunity before hitting a wall. Moreno’s
best chance for success in 2015 may be to join a team that will
allow him to compete for a starting job, and Jacksonville would
be the ideal spot, because that’s a competition he should run
away with. It would be tough for Moreno to match his huge 2013
playing in the Jaguars offense, but just having the opportunity
alone would put Moreno back on the map as a weekly starter in
fantasy leagues.
The only player in this article I didn’t move also happens
to be the best running back available. After the way 2014 played
out, there’s no way a move to another team could improve
DeMarco Murray’s fantasy fortunes. The Cowboys boast one
of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and they were third in
the NFL in total rushing attempts last season. Murray may get
offered more money somewhere else, but staying home in Dallas
would make him a clear top- five pick in 2015 fantasy leagues.
Stevan Ridley has always been effective when given the opportunity
to run in New England, but the threat of a benching with every
future fumble made him a wildly frustrating player to own in fantasy.
Assuming he’s able to successfully return from his torn
ACL, his best-case scenario may be on a team with a similar backfield
situation as he had in New England, where one back dominates carries
while another back fills the pass- catching role.
San Diego offers that exact situation. With Danny Woodhead slotted
as the receiving back, Ridley could step in as the main ball carrier,
without the fear of him losing his job at a moment’s notice. The
confidence in him receiving work would be great for fantasy owners,
and likely for Ridley himself. A hopefully healthy Ridley/Woodhead
combo would give the Chargers an opportunity to replicate their
2013 season formula of splitting the running and passing work;
a formula that led to both running backs finishing in the top
20 at the running back position.
Though disappointing the last couple seasons, C.J. Spiller has
been successful in his career the few times he’s had the
opportunity to take on a bulk of the work in the backfield. With
the departure of Justin Forsett, there is an opportunity for Spiller
to give it another shot in Baltimore. With Marc Trestman at the
helm of the offense, the Ravens need a back who is strong in the
passing game, and Spiller is a guy who once had his position actually
changed from running back to wide receiver for a brief portion
of his career.
During Trestman’s two years in Chicago, Matt Forte averaged 277.5
carries, 112.5 receiving targets and 88.5 receptions. There’s
no guarantee that a workload like that would translate to the
Baltimore Ravens offense, but it gives you an idea of what kind
of upside a running back would have playing in that offense. If
Spiller were to sign with the Baltimore Ravens, he would have
to be considered in the early rounds of fantasy drafts this summer,
just on the upside alone.
After cutting Reggie Bush, the Lions have an opening in their
backfield. They are another team that has a huge divide between
heavy ball carrier and receiving back, and Shane Vereen could
excel in an offense that utilizes him in that receiving back role,
similar to the role he had in New England. The Lions seem to like
Theo Riddick, but that doesn’t mean they would shy away
from upgrading.
In 2014, if you combine Bush’s stats in games he played
with Riddick’s stats in games with no Bush, you’d
get a running back that finished 20th in PPR – just ahead
of Vereen. Insert Vereen, a player who would bring more talent
to the role than either Bush or Riddick did in 2014, and there
is lots of potential to move up even higher in fantasy rankings
down the road.
