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Jason Mitchell | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Risers and Fallers: Week 5
Fantasy Football Stock Watch
10/14/15

Quarterback

Rising

Josh McCown, CLE
Over the past three weeks, only four quarterbacks have at least 900 yards passing. Only two quarterbacks have at least 1,000 yards passing. Only one has at least 1,100: Josh McCown, with 1,154. I’m going to guess people have stopped asking for Johnny Manziel in Cleveland. In each of those three games, McCown has thrown for exactly two touchdowns, helping him finish QB8, QB4 and QB1 in those weeks. If he can keep up the remarkable volume (141 attempts in last three, a 16-game pace of 752), McCown should continue putting up solid fantasy numbers. Be careful about going all-in though, his next three games are against Denver, St. Louis and Arizona.

Sam Bradford, PHI
It might not be pretty, but pretty doesn’t matter in fantasy football. Points are what matters. Over the past two weeks, Sam Bradford has thrown for at least 270 yards in each, with five total touchdowns. These are the types of numbers fantasy owners expected when they took a shot on Bradford in drafts, it just took a few weeks to finally start showing up in the box scores. Turnovers remain an issue (his six picks are tied for fifth most in the NFL), but if he can continue getting yards and touchdowns, fantasy players can move past the interceptions. If you kept the faith in Bradford through the slow start, it’s looking more and more like you are going to get rewarded.

Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning sits at No.31 in FPts per game among quarterbacks, two spots below Kirk Cousins.

Falling

Peyton Manning, IND
It may sound sacrilegious, but one of the greatest fantasy quarterbacks of all time is droppable in fantasy leagues. I declared the same thing about Tom Brady last year in this space, so take this with a grain of salt, but there is just no reason to believe we will see the Peyton Manning we all know and love again. Manning already has two games with no touchdowns, he has one touchdown and four interceptions over the past two games, and he only has one game with more than 266 passing yards. There have only been five weeks, and he already has three games with single digit fantasy points. It’s tough because of his name, but there is no reason to hold out hope for Manning to return to greatness.

Matthew Stafford, DET
The center of the Lions disaster of a season thus far has been quarterback Matthew Stafford, and anyone that has attempted to use him in fantasy is feeling the pain. Over the last three weeks, he has only two touchdowns and six turnovers (five interceptions), leading to a three-week run of single digit performances. For the season, he only has four touchdowns while tossing eight interceptions. Detroit is coming off a rough set of games and the schedule does get a little easier coming up, but I just can’t imagine trusting Matthew Stafford in a fantasy football lineup right now.

Running Back

Rising

Devonta Freeman, ATL
What do you get when you combine Jim Brown and Barry Sanders? Devonta Freeman! How a running back that lost the starting job just a few weeks ago to rookie Tevin Coleman could suddenly turn into the player that he’s been the past few weeks is unbelievable. He has at least 141 rushing yards in two of his last three games, with seven touchdowns in those three games. On top of those remarkable numbers, he has contributed at least five receptions per game in each of the last three as well. Coleman returned from injury in Week 5, but he is clearly just another witness, as he only saw two carries. People who took Freeman in the middle rounds this season: congratulations on your winning record.

Justin Forsett, BAL
In the first three weeks of the season, Justin Forsett managed to rush for a grand total of 114 yards. After that third game, I labeled him as “falling.” Since that article, Forsett has rushed for 271 total yards in two games. I’m going to pretend I lit that fire under him. He hasn’t set the world on fire receiving like people may have though when Marc Trestman went to Baltimore, but he has caught exactly four passes in four of five games (zero in the other). Now Forsett owners just need to cross their fingers that his ankle injury won’t be a problem, because it seemed like he was just getting started on the road to making all his preseason believers a happy group.

Charles Sims, TB
Doug Martin has carried the ball at least 20 times in the last two weeks, so it might seem surprising that Charles Sims finds his name in this place. With Martin’s rise, you probably missed that Sims has three straight games with double digit fantasy points. It certainly seems like the Buccaneers are interested in getting Sims the ball, as he’s seeing the ball around 10 times a game (averaging seven carries and three receptions). Sims isn’t a guy you are trying to force into any lineups, but if you are struggling at running back due to some major busts or injuries, Sims can be a solid fill-in for your team.

Falling

Ameer Abdullah, DET
Preseason star Ameer Abdullah hasn’t done much of a job carrying it over to the regular season. He rushed for 50 yards in Week 1, but hasn’t exceeded 33 yards in a game since. Abdullah also caught four passes in Week 1, following it up with six total receptions in the last four games. To make matters worse, he fumbled twice early in Week 5, then disappeared for the rest of the game. The Lions have had no success on the ground and Theo Riddick is the one getting the passing game work out of the backfield. I wouldn’t cut Abdullah because the opportunity for him to seize the job is still there, but there’s no way you can start him in the near future.

Eddie Lacy, GB
No, you’re not stuck in 2014, Eddie Lacy is in fact starting slow once again. He has three games with 46 or fewer rushing yards this season, with no touchdowns since Week 1. He’s not helping matters through the air either, catching just seven passes in five games. It seems like it should only be a matter of time until Lacy returns to being Lacy in the Packers offense again, but people who invested a first round pick into Lacy are probably running out of time to wait for him to turn things around. After the Chargers in Week 6, the Packers schedule goes BYE, at Denver, at Carolina. If your fantasy season needs to turn around immediately and you are waiting for Eddie Lacy, try to sell him to an owner who believes in Lacy and can afford to wait. It won’t do you any good for him to turn it on in Week 10 if you only have three wins.

Jeremy Hill, CIN
I have some bad news for those of you holding out for Jeremy Hill’s turnaround: he’s not the Bengals running back to own. His three touchdown game in Week 4 is the reason people will continue to start him (anyone that could score three times at any given time is probably worth a start), but you have to realize that’s what you are starting: a hope for a touchdown. When Hill isn’t scoring, he’s a disaster: he has three games with two or less standard fantasy points. Giovani Bernard has led the Bengals in carries four weeks in a row, and Bernard is the only running back contributing in the passing game (Hill has two receptions in 2015). If anyone in your league has missed the memo on the changing of the guard in Cincinnati, trade Hill to them immediately.

Wide Receiver

Rising

DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
Let this sink in for a minute: DeAndre Hopkins has been targeted 50 times in the last three weeks, or the same number of times that Antonio Brown has been targeted all season. Hopkins has eight or more receptions in four of five games, and he has over 100 yards in three straight games. No matter who is standing in at quarterback for Houston he is targeting Hopkins relentlessly and there’s no reason to believe he will let up either. I think Julio Jones is the only receiver I would rather own than Hopkins.

Willie Snead, NO
Entering 2015, Brandin Cooks was the clear Saints receiver to own, Marques Colston was the veteran people thought could still contribute as a later round pick, and Brandon Coleman was the high upside late rounder. So, of course, Willie Snead is starting to look like the best one to own of all of them. Snead has six catches in two straight games for totals of 89 and 141 yards. He leads New Orleans in receiving yards despite taking a few weeks to come on the scene. Of players with at least 20 receptions, Snead ranks fourth in the NFL at 17.3 yards per catch. Someone was bound to break out in the Saints offense with Jimmy Graham out of the picture, and now we know that someone is Snead.

Jamison Crowder, WAS
For the first two weeks, Crowder was an afterthought in the Washington offense. Since that time, he has gotten more opportunity, seeing 26 targets over the past three weeks. In those games, he has gotten progressively better: six catches for 45 yards in Week 3, seven for 65 in Week 4 and eight for 87 in Week 5. Fantasy owners should certainly take notice of Crowder’s recent arrival, but it remains to be seen how he will be affected when DeSean Jackson returns. It would be nice to see Crowder stay in the mix even when Jackson sees the field again, but it seems doubtful that a Kirk Cousins-led offense can support any more offensive weapons for fantasy purposes.

Falling

Mike Evans, TB
In Week 3, Mike Evans caught seven passes for 101 yards, making it appear he had fully returned from injury and was on his way to becoming the WR1 he was drafted to be. Weeks 4 and 5 have changed those thoughts, as he only managed six catches for 73 yards in those two games. Doug Martin has been the focus of the offense, and Vincent Jackson is getting plenty of attention himself. With those two factors, plus Jameis Winston’s very up and down rookie season to this point, Evans is starting to look less and less like a wide receiver that needs to be started on a weekly basis. I’m not saying bench him, I’m just saying it’s okay to bench him if other options have presented themselves on your roster.

Demaryius Thomas, DEN
Adding Demaryius Thomas here is tricky, because he’s still a solid option. He’s third in targets and fourth in receptions, so it’s not like he’s been a bust by any stretch. The problem here is the decline of Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense. While ranking highly in targets and receptions, Thomas only sits 25th in FPts/G in standard scoring leagues. He isn’t finding the end zone (only one touchdown so far) and the yardage isn’t coming at a high enough rate to overcome the lack of touchdown scoring. He’s still a weekly starter in fantasy leagues for sure, he just isn’t the team-carrying top five wide receiver that he was drafted to be in the preseason.

Jordan Matthews, PHI
The recent rise for Sam Bradford has not translated into fantasy greatness for Jordan Matthews. Matthews has not surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game since Week 2, which also happens to be the last time he found the end zone. The Eagles are a high volume offense, but it is not the type of offense that commits high volumes of action to individual players. His 16 receptions for 182 yards over the first two weeks showed what kind of upside Matthews can have, but his last three outings made it clear that he hasn’t reach the upper echelon of wide receivers (yet).

Tight End

Rising

Gary Barnidge, CLE
I typically don’t like mentioning players in consecutive weeks here (spread the wealth!), but Gary Barnidge’s ascendance continues. Last week I said he “might have” thrust himself into the conversation for weekly starter in 12-team leagues. Now? He is definitely a starter. In Week 5, Barnidge caught eight passes for 139 yards against Baltimore. In the first four weeks combined, the Ravens had allowed just eight catches for 31 yards to tight ends. In a very short time, Barnidge has gone from unheard of to matchup proof. If you own him, get him in your lineup.

Antonio Gates, SD
People who eagerly and patiently waited for Antonio Gates to return from suspension were rewarded in a huge way on Monday Night. Nine catches, 92 yards and two touchdowns in his first game back made it clear that Philip Rivers was eager for Gates to return as well. Ladarius Green was okay in Gates’ absence, but he’s clearly not on the same level in the Chargers offense. Get Gates into your lineups without a second thought.

Falling

Travis Kelce, KC
Travis Kelce shows signs of being the next coming of Rob Gronkowski, but something about the Chiefs offense keeps it from happening. Week 1 should have been a sign of things to come (six catches for 106 yards and two touchdowns), but it wasn’t. Kelce hasn’t found the end zone since, and has had 58 or less receiving yards in three of four games in that time. It’s possible the loss of Jamaal Charles will translate into more offense flowing in the direction of Kelce, but it isn’t any fun that we have to hope for reasons for the Chiefs to use this awesome weapon they have at their disposal. Keeping starting him at tight end, but realize he’s not yet near the Gronk status he appears capable of reaching.

Jimmy Graham, SEA
Remember when Jimmy Graham was the best tight end in fantasy? It seems like a lifetime ago. The move to Seattle has turned Graham into a very mediocre option. He has three games with 30 or less receiving yards. Did the Seahawks really pull that huge deal just to ignore him? Apparently. Graham remains a weekly starter because of the lack of depth at the tight end position, but he is ruining the seasons of anyone that spent a third round pick on him two months ago.