In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure to the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to the punch in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a conclusion about a player too quickly results in making a bad situation worse. However, coming to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes quicker than your opponents is considered foresight and can often lead to fantasy championships.

Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.

As we learned from the alternative rock group Semisonic in their 1998 hit song “Closing Time”, every new beginning comes from some other beginning’s end. I find myself referring to that phrase quite often throughout the course of any given year and feel like it applies to the fantasy football season. Why? Because almost as quickly as it begins, it ends. While each season provides us with new memories that we can take into the NFL Playoffs, the fantasy season for most of us comes to an end this weekend. For some, this time of year means that some fantasy owners can move on to the next hobby or find a new one to fill the next 6-7 months. For others, Week 16 gives some of us a short break from the hobby we love, take a macro view of the past 4-5 months and begin preparations for the next season.

As you might imagine, I am one of those people in the latter group. However, I’d be lying if I suggested that I don’t look forward to the completion of Week 16, if for no other reason because it provides a sense of relief. For the fantasy teams fortunate enough to make it to this point, even the most patient money-league owners want to know what the fate of their team(s) is/are so they can make start making some kind of definitive plans on what to do with their newfound wealth. Although I feel as though I have some pretty good ideas as to how you can spend your prize money, I am not here to be your financial advisor near as much as I try to be a guide to help you get to the point where you can achieve that wealth. So with that in mind, let’s take one final opportunity to get your team from the doorstep and into the hallowed halls of fantasy champion status.

Ryan Mathews: Gotta have faith, faith faith...

I’ve long believed that skill (such as making savvy trades and spotting breakout players before your competition does) usually gets owners through the regular season and into the fantasy playoffs. However, even as someone who tries to control his playoff fate as much as I do, I recognize that my prognostication powers are limited and the matchup that looked good in August and September doesn’t always work out that way in December. In case you need proof, I challenge anyone to find me a person that not only had Ryan Mathews staying healthy for all but one game this season, but put a great deal of faith in him after a miserable stretch during the middle of the season.

In previous years, I would quite often refer to the fantasy football season as a 16-week marathon. In the most competitive leagues, guiding a team to a fantasy title can be emotionally and mentally grinding with the amount of research and second-guessing owners put themselves through. And let’s not forget to mention the number of times owners must overcome injuries to a key player or, as was the case in 2011, three or four key players. Pretenders can look good for a quarter or even half of the race, but at some point, the rigors of the season will expose a team. I’m convinced that any fantasy owner who believes this is a simple game simply hasn’t been playing it for very long.

Thankfully, despite the most trying season of my fantasy career, I was fortunate enough to place two of my teams into the title game this past weekend. Obviously, from a strictly financial perspective, I was the most thrilled when my big-money league team overcame the amazing performances turned in by Drew Brees and LeSean McCoy to find its way into the championship game. From a reputation and pride standpoint, I can’t help but feel good about leading FF Today into its second straight title game appearance in the SOFA Auction League. Although I won’t get a chance to rectify two lineup errors I made against Rotoworld that cost FF Today the championship game last season, I will get the chance to avenge that setback plus a regular-season two-point loss to the No. 1 seed RotoExperts.

Much like almost every other fantasy team still in the hunt, we are both limping to the finish line. Four of his six receivers are on the injury report while Frank Gore is playing hurt (and will be facing Seattle’s tough run defense) and Steven Jackson will go against the Steelers, who should be about as ready to dominate now – with James Harrison returning from suspension – as they are going to be all season. On my side, Matt Forte isn’t going to play and my receivers beyond Roddy White and Julio Jones aren’t the type of players who can dominate a game (sorry Pierre Garcon).

While the Blitz takes an eight-month vacation after this week, I will be rejoining you in two weeks with “Road to the Super Bowl”. However, I can’t get you thinking about postseason fantasy football until I get you through this week first. So let’s take one last look at touches and targets with an eye on next season. At the end of his position grouping, I’ll give you my top 12 at that position in PPR leagues as we look forward to 2012.

The cutoff at each position below is five touches/targets per game. To help provide some perspective, the average fantasy points/touch for the 64 RBs that qualify for my list above is 0.78. For the 64 WRs who qualified, the overall average for fantasy points/target is 0.57 and among the 19 that made the list at TE, it is 0.63. Feel free to use that number as a barometer to help you evaluate who is making the grade and who is not.

Note: For the players whose names and touches/targets are bolded and italicized, it reflects the touches/targets each player had with their former team before they were traded/released by that team.

Three less-than-durable young runners are going to give fantasy owners something to think about this offseason. I referenced Ryan Mathews earlier and could not help but be impressed with his performance against the Ravens. Like many young runners, his biggest problem is his propensity to let the ball get away from his body and not always covering it up when he runs inside. However, his talent is special and one has to believe that if HC Norv Turner manages to hold on to his job one more year, Mathews’ average of 23.25 touches over the last four weeks will be more the norm in 2012 than the exception. I’m not sure why Turner decided to leave Mathews in the game when the Chargers got near the goal line against Baltimore, but the fact that he converted both times is a clear indication to me that San Diego wants to feature him. It’s now up to him to make sure that happens, through his production over the remainder of this season and his willingness to go into training camp next summer in the best shape of his life. As for this week, the Chargers travel to Detroit, which has been a favorable matchup for RBs recently, meaning another 20-25 touch, 120-yard, one- or two-score effort is definitely possible.

Another young RB I want to discuss is Roy Helu. Since the bye weeks ended in Week 11, no back has seen a bigger workload than the rookie RB from Nebraska (28 touches/week over the last four games). Not surprisingly, Helu is now dealing with toe and ankle injuries and facing a matchup against the Vikings that favors the passing game much more than the running game. The bigger question in my mind, however, is what Helu’s recent success means for next season. The only real threat to his job currently on the roster is Tim Hightower, but I highly doubt he will return given the nature of his injury and the fact that Helu was the more talented back from the start that just needed time to adjust to the pro game. I continue to maintain that HC Mike Shanahan will commit to one runner being the featured back if/when it becomes clear that he has a player talented enough to be that guy. Nevertheless, it will be hard for most of us to ever embrace a Shanahan back as a RB1 in fantasy despite his fantasy-friendly system because of his penchant for pulling a runner at a moment’s notice. But let it be said now that Helu is the best young talent Shanahan has worked with in some time, so I feel the day that we can trust a Shanahan RB in fantasy again is closer than most of you think.

The final young runner I need to mention is C.J. Spiller, who just happens to possess the cloudiest future of the three runners mentioned so far. With 75 touches over the last four weeks (and good PPR production in two of those games), we are getting a small glimpse of the talent Buffalo hoped it was getting on draft day in 2010. HC Chan Gailey has compared Spiller to Jamaal Charles in the past, but the problem is virtually the same as it was when the Clemson alum arrived: Fred Jackson. Although Jackson will be 31 next season, he has the “tread” of a RB about 4-5 years younger, so it is definitely possible he still has 2-3 years left as a starting-caliber RB in the league. If that is a correct assessment, Spiller’s upside will be comparable to Reggie Bush’s for most of his career in New Orleans.

I try hard not to spend much time talking about the obvious RB starts in this column because many of you have read/heard the superlatives about them by the time your eyes grace this piece each Thursday. Therefore, I promise not to ramble too much about LeSean McCoy and Maurice Jones-Drew. But frankly, McCoy may be the closest thing to Barry Sanders we’ve seen since the Hall of Famer retired. Mind you, Sanders is one of a kind and is the most electrifying player I’ve seen in my lifetime, but when NFL Network aired video comparing the two players during a recent game on their air, I was stunned by the similarities in certain parts of their games. I’d be really surprised if McCoy isn’t a top-five fantasy pick for the next five years barring injury.

As for MJD, there needs to be an investigation if Jacksonville doesn’t use its first-round pick (and maybe substantial free-agent money) to fix its wide receiver issues. I completely understand one of the reasons why Jones-Drew leads the league in rushing is because he leads the league in attempts, but the fact he is doing it when defenses have absolutely nothing else to worry about makes his season all the more amazing. Looking ahead, Jacksonville has a 2-3 year window (with MJD entering his age-27 season in 2012) in which to make some very sound decisions about the future of its franchise, including what steps it plans on taking to ensure that Blaine Gabbert has all the tools necessary to succeed. If the Jags continue down their current path, Jones-Drew’s career may be headed for a Steven Jackson-like ending (Hall of Fame-talent at RB ending his career on a miserable team). In my opinion, MJD is one of the most important players to keep an eye on this offseason. If the Jags were to somehow land a receiver like Oklahoma State’s Justin Blackmon and a decent WR2 in free agency (which would allow Mike Thomas to stay in the slot full-time), Jones-Drew could recapture top-three fantasy status once again.

2012 Top 12 PPR Fantasy RBs

1. Arian Foster
2. LeSean McCoy
3. Ray Rice
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Fred Jackson
6. Maurice Jones-Drew
7. Matt Forte
8. Ryan Mathews
9. Marshawn Lynch
10. Darren Sproles
11. Chris Johnson
12. DeMarco Murray

Is A.J. Green the next Mike Williams (Tampa Bay) or Calvin Johnson? In other words, does the league figure Green out next season – the dreaded “sophomore slump” – or does he follow up an impressive rookie campaign with a 1,300-yard, 12-score season? Certainly, most of that depends on a number of other variables, such as whether or not Andy Dalton takes the next step as well. If I had to bet, I would say he’ll be viewed as top-ten WR option in fantasy next season that has a much greater chance at becoming the next superstar receiver and not the latest rookie surprise that turns in a dud the following season. Of the 64 WRs listed above, Green’s catch rate is the 16th best in the league and best among rookies (along with Doug Baldwin). Just like any other offensive player in the AFC North, Green’s fantasy ceiling will be somewhat limited due to four games against the Steelers and Ravens each year and two more against Browns CB Joe Haden, who will probably win as many battles with Green over the next few years as he loses. If you do draft him next year, I would simply advise patience because defenses will make him their No. 1 priority going into next season. What the Bengals do to surround him with a viable threat at RB will probably dictate just how close he can get to approaching “Megatron” status in 2012. For this week, however, I don’t see any reason why he can’t post WR1 numbers. The Cardinals’ defense has improved dramatically in recent weeks, but their pass defense continues to be one of the best matchups for fantasy owners to exploit.

For a long time, Darrius Heyward-Bey was fantasy’s favorite punch line. If you wanted to crack a joke among your fellow fantasy owners, all you needed to do was mention the initials “DHB” and before you even got done mentioning how awful of a selection he was for the Raiders three drafts ago, you were probably drawing laughter from the crowd. While it is much too early to say he has arrived, Heyward-Bey has silenced his critics in a big way this season. In his rookie season, his catch rate was an abysmal 22.5%. In 2010, it increased to 40%. While this season’s 54.8 rate still could use some help, it’s about time to recognize that DHB may be of some use to fantasy owners in coming years after all. I still believe Denarius Moore ends up becoming the focal point of the Raiders passing game going forward, but it is safe to say DHB’s breakout is due to his ability to break tackles and run away from defenders. HC Hue Jackson has praised his work ethic on multiple occasions, so perhaps his emergence wasn’t all that shocking to those people who put their faith into the coach’s words from the beginning. It also does not hurt his cause that he’s transitioned from JaMarcus Russell to Jason Campbell to Carson Palmer during his time in Oakland. With the investment the team made in Palmer, he’s going to be around the Raiders for a while, meaning Moore and Heyward-Bey should have a chance to grow together as one of the better young receiving duos over the next few seasons.

Speaking of punch lines, former Broncos HC Josh McDaniels took a beating from the media and NFL fans alike for his faith in a pair of 2010 first-round picks as he attempted to build an offense “unlike any the NFL had ever seen”. Denver was so thrilled with this plan that it pulled the plug on McDaniels less than one year after he signed off on the selections, leaving the futures of Tim Tebow and Demaryius Thomas in great doubt – the former because of his well-known lack of QB skills and the latter due to his college offense and shaky injury history. Roughly a year after McDaniels’ firing, his vision is coming to fruition under new HC John Fox. It’s probably not impressive enough that Thomas is averaging 11 targets over the last three weeks – second-best in the league behind Roddy White – but that he is on the receiving end of 42.9% of Tebow’s attempts over that same time. I get the sense the other shoe is going to drop pretty soon on Thomas (meaning he’ll drop a one- or two-catch performance on us over the next week or two while Eric Decker blows up), but is also quite possible that Thomas is about to put his injury-riddled past behind him and ready to give us the kind of second-half performance we look for in second-year receivers when trying to project third-year breakouts at the position.

It seemed pretty clear before the season that Pittsburgh was ready to de-emphasize Hines Ward, but I’m not sure anyone in their wildest dreams had Antonio Brown going from co-WR3 with Emmanuel Sanders in the preseason to co-WR1 with Mike Wallace. Yet, it appears that is exactly what is happening. Brown has only seen less than six targets in a game twice this season (Weeks 5 and 6) and has matched Wallace’s 28 targets since the Steelers’ Week 11 bye. In the four weeks leading up to the bye, Brown actually out-targeted Wallace, 41-30. Much like Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz in New York, I think most NFL people will tell you the original lead WR (Wallace and Nicks in this case) is the best player, so expect defenses to adjust a bit to Cruz and Brown this offseason. With that said, we see multiple offenses each year support two elite fantasy WR options. Considering both players’ skill sets, it is quite likely Brown and Cruz will remain valuable fantasy properties. A word of caution to owners who plan on taking a long break from fantasy football after this week: place an asterisk by Brown’s numbers this week (since Wallace has firmly entrenched himself as an elite fantasy receiver) if/when Charlie Batch gets the start vs. St. Louis since Brown’s numbers are likely to disappoint. Don’t let his likely poor Week 16 numbers convince you he is anything less than a possible fantasy WR2 option in 2012.

2012 Top 12 PPR Fantasy WRs

1. Calvin Johnson
2. Roddy White
3. Wes Welker
4. Steve Smith (Carolina)
5. Hakeem Nicks
6. Larry Fitzgerald
7. Mike Wallace
8. Andre Johnson
9. Kenny Britt
10. A.J. Green
11. Greg Jennings
12. Percy Harvin

Let me begin by asking a question: are fantasy owners going to do the unthinkable next summer and go back-to-back Patriot TEs in their drafts? Depending on the size and skill level of your league (and just how high of a price an owner wants to put on Rob Gronkowski’s record-breaking season), I think there is a strong case that could be made by selecting Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez with consecutive picks in PPR leagues. Consider for a second that New England’s TEs are averaging 33.1 points in PPR each week this season, 13.5 points more than second-place New Orleans. Further consider that unlike most teams, the Pats have an elite QB in Tom Brady with receivers who don’t exactly profile as elite red-zone options. I think the case can be made that using this strategy would not only minimize risk at one of the shallower positions in fantasy each year, but also lessen the importance of grabbing an elite receiver in the first 3-4 rounds. Moreover, using both players would likely cause a run at the position, which is just the kind of thing savvy fantasy owners do in order to get a player one round later than he/she should get him.

This week, New England faces a Miami defense that has done very well against TEs in recent weeks. The problem, however, is that I don’t think the Patriots really care about matchups anymore when it comes to their TEs. Few teams have a player who can eliminate one TE – much less both – which is just another argument to consider the above draft strategy next summer. Whether they meant to do it or not, the Pats will start forcing teams to draft tall and athletic combo defensive backs – players considered to be tweeners at cornerback and safety that usually get labeled as Cover 2 corners – in an effort to defend the likes of Hernandez, Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham. Like it or not, there just aren’t many safeties or linebackers in the NFL right now that have a shot against this new breed of TEs.

One tight end I don’t give near enough love to in this column is Brandon Pettigrew. I admit the reason that I don’t mention him more often is because he isn’t the most consistent fantasy player. At TE, some owners will live with the downs that come with his ups, but one would think in such a pass-heavy offense that a very talented TE wouldn’t run so hot and cold. For example, in Weeks 3-6, his low PPR game was 12.4 points. Remove that four-week period from the equation and you are left with only two other games where he finished in double digits and eight single-digit games. The most disturbing thing is that his targets have been there all season for the most part. Regardless, Pettigrew is just the kind of TE that can be the solid final piece in any fantasy lineup that will be available in the later rounds (8th-10th round range) for the owners who don’t want to pay the steep price it will take to snag Graham, Gronkowski or even Hernandez next summer.

2012 Top 12 PPR Fantasy TEs

1. Jimmy Graham
2. Rob Gronkowski
3. Aaron Hernandez
4. Antonio Gates
5. Tony Gonzalez
6. Jason Witten
7. Jermichael Finley
8. Vernon Davis
9. Brandon Pettigrew
10. Fred Davis (possible one-year suspension for another failed drug test makes him very risky)
11. Dallas Clark
12. Greg Olsen

Next Week’s Waiver Wire Stars

Each week, I’ll select one player at QB, RB, WR and TE that is available in at least three of my five leagues and make a case as to why they could be important to you the following week or beyond. For those of you who have been loyal readers for some time, you already know I am not concerned with making safe picks; selective and smart aggressiveness is often the name of the game in fantasy.

With most of us in our championship week, my recommendations below will be for players who I believe have a bit of surprising value this week.

QB: Kyle Orton, Kansas City. First of all, if you need a QB recommendation for Week 16, I commend you for drafting such a strong supporting cast and pity you at the same time because you likely will find yourself pitted against an elite QB. With that said, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better Week 16 situation for a fantasy free-agent QB than the one Orton has, since the Chiefs do have talent at WR and Orton is no slouch playing for a new contract – be it for Kansas City or someone else. But more importantly in fantasy, Oakland represents a ridiculously easy matchup for such a capable QB who has some weapons and financial motivation to do well. Since the Raiders’ Week 9 bye, the lowest fantasy-point output by a QB was Philip Rivers’ 19.4 points. Otherwise, the other six QBs (a group that includes Caleb Hanie, Matt Moore and about three quarters of action from Aaron Rodgers) have all scored at least 20 fantasy points.

Previous recommendations: Matt Cassel, Week 3; Vince Young, Week 4; Tim Tebow, Week 5; John Beck, Week 6; Christian Ponder, Week 7; Colt McCoy, Week 9; Alex Smith, Week 10; Matt Leinart, Week 11; Matt Moore, Week 12; T.J. Yates, Week 13; Jake Locker, Week 14

RB: Sammy Morris, Dallas. (I can just hear it now, “Oh no, not another Patriot running back!!”) Thankfully, age is the only thing working against Morris these days. To say I feel confident about recommending any 34-year-old RB who signed with his new team just over a week ago would be a complete and utter lie, but I do feel like I can promote him as a possible flex option in deeper leagues this week against Philadelphia if Felix Jones cannot play (assuming Kahlil Bell was already picked up). Morris played with his new coach in Miami for a short while and it was this familiarity with Jason Garrett and his playbook that led Dallas to sign Morris as opposed to a younger back. While his age is concerning and his upside for this week is quite limited, Morris displayed some explosion in Week 14 in relief of Jones. The Cowboys have enough offensive firepower to hang with the Eagles if they don’t completely fall apart like they did the last time they played Philly, which would mean that Morris could be in line for 15 touches against an Eagles’ run defense that can still be exploited. I imagine 60-70 total yards is Morris’ ceiling this week. Just be advised that if you use him and expect 10+ points, just know you are betting on an unlikely short TD run.

Previous recommendations: Alfonso Smith, Week 3; Keiland Williams Week 4; Jackie Battle/Jacquizz Rodgers, Week 5; Joe McKnight, Week 6; Phillip Tanner, Week 7; Tashard Choice, Week 9; Kevin Smith, Week 10; Johnny White, Week 11; Shane Vereen, Week 12; Brandon Saine, Week 13; Kahlil Bell, Week 14

WR: Titus Young, Detroit. I’m willing to bet that after a full training camp next summer, Young will be closer to pulling an Antonio Brown than finding himself on fantasy waiver wires during Championship Week. Young teased owners (including me) earlier this year in the same way most rookie WRs do, but his post-bye usage has been encouraging to say the least. He’s seen seven or more targets in three of those six games, yet he has posted WR3 numbers in PPR in all but one of those games. While the Chargers do not present the easiest matchup anymore (it is December after all), Detroit-San Diego has a chance to be a high-scoring affair. If that happens, it would not be the least bit surprising if Young was able to exploit the Chargers’ beatable secondary for his third straight double-digit PPR fantasy performance.

Previous recommendations: Michael Jenkins/Dane Sanzenbacher, Week 3; Mark Clayton, Week 4, Naaman Roosevelt, Week 5; Arrelious Benn, Week 6; Roy Williams, Week 7; Joshua Cribbs, Week 9; Andre Roberts, Week 10; Demaryius Thomas, Week 11; Doug Baldwin, Week 12; Brad Smith, Week 13; Randall Cobb/Donald Driver, Week 14

TE: Kellen Davis, Chicago. I sincerely hope that no one needs this recommendation, but if you are in dire straits and willing to roll the dice at the position since all your other options are injured or just plain awful, let me suggest Davis. Not only did Davis post one of his few useful fantasy games this season against the Packers in Week 3, but Green Bay represents the second-easiest matchup for opposing TEs. With Johnny Knox out and QB Josh McCown taking over for Caleb Hanie, it’s not unthinkable that the new QB will spend most of his day checking down to his RBs and TEs. Davis is highly unlikely to produce a lot of receptions, but a short TD is a strong possibility against a defense that is definitely underachieving. Again, don’t go with Davis unless you are absolutely desperate. But if you are, this week should be one of the few weeks that he could have some value.

Previous recommendations: Ben Watson, Week 3; Jake Ballard, Week 4; Joel Dreessen, Week 5; Lance Kendricks, Week 6; Visanthe Shiancoe/Jeremy Shockey, Week 7; Dennis Pitta, Week 9; Daniel Fells, Week 10; Kevin Boss, Week 11; Jared Cook, Week 12; Anthony Fasano, Week 13; Evan Moore, Week 14

Suggestions, comments, musings about the article or fantasy football in general? E-mail me.