| All Out Blitz: Volume 50
 10/11/12
 
 Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy 
              owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes 
              hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat 
              man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against 
              a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense 
              brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes 
              the name of the game for the opposing team.
 
 In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure to 
              the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to the punch 
              in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a conclusion 
              about a player too quickly results in making a bad situation worse. 
              However, coming to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes 
              quicker than your opponents is considered foresight and can often 
              lead to fantasy championships.
 
 Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game 
              losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s 
              chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it 
              is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize 
              by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of 
              you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.
 
 
 There are decisions we make in life that we know almost immediately 
              are good or bad. This is one of those good ones…
 After months of wavering on whether or not I should consume more 
                football than I already do, I finally gave into the billion-dollar 
                empire of the NFL and decided to pony up the $60 necessary to 
                watch any NFL game any time I wanted. Within five minutes of purchasing 
                the Season-Plus subscription to NFL Game Rewind, it became obvious 
                to me that I needed to “up my game”. Here’s 
                why: In addition to providing the coaches’ tape in which fans 
                get to see all-22 footage, Game Rewind offers the full broadcast 
                and a condensed 30-minute version of games which essentially removes 
                all the filler in between plays, leaving fans with a nice, tidy 
                version of a NFL game that can be watched in about the same amount 
                of time as most people spend watching a sitcom. After doing some 
                quick math, it made sense to me that since I spend anywhere between 
                15-20 hours (usually more) putting together a column each week, 
                why not watch each of the games myself, allowing me to become 
                a more knowledgeable owner while sharing my thoughts and insights 
                with you at the same time?  All right, enough about Game Rewind as I have no deal on the 
                table currently to promote their services. But for the serious 
                fantasy owner who gets tired of taking somebody else’s word 
                on how a player is performing or relying on a box score to tell 
                you the story of the game, Game Rewind offers you a pretty valuable 
                tool in your quest for a fantasy title. Now, let’s get to how I want to help you – the fantasy 
                owner – going forward. In short, it is my goal to watch 
                each condensed game every week and provide a summation of what 
                stuck out to me the most in that game. While I hope to get more 
                technical with my observations in the coming weeks (much like 
                a scout or general manager would), I wanted to keep the first 
                edition fairly basic while also providing the same kind of forward-thinking 
                fantasy advice I strive to bring you each week. Without further ado, let’s give this new car a test drive: Cardinals-Rams Although it isn’t a commonly-accepted practice, the Cardinals 
                may be wise to make Larry Fitzgerald the default No. 1 option 
                on just about every passing play. What do I mean? Essentially, 
                on the few plays in which the defense doesn’t put a safety 
                over the top, it would be smart for Kevin Kolb to simply give 
                Fitzgerald a target. Why do I say that? Given the current woes 
                of the Cardinals’ offensive line, I’m not exactly 
                sure that unit can be trusted to give Kolb enough time to get 
                to his second read...after giving up 17 sacks over two games, 
                it is fair to say the line is THAT bad. The Rams knew their biggest 
                offensive mismatch coming into the game was Danny Amendola, but 
                one has to wonder how St. Louis saw it was beneficial to give 
                Steven Jackson just five carries in the first half. While he has 
                slowed down some in recent years, he hasn’t slowed much. 
                After all, we are talking about a 29-year-old RB with five percent 
                body fat whose YPC has consistently been league average or better 
                behind one of the worst lines in the league. With Amendola out 
                for at least six weeks, it would be surprising if the Rams don’t 
                increase their reliance on Jackson. Fantasy implications: It’s 
                a bit ironic these two teams start this column off and play in 
                the same division because each has a player that needs to be in 
                fantasy lineups each week almost regardless of their supporting 
                cast or opponent since their ability essentially supersedes their 
                matchup. What that does mean, however, is their owner is going 
                to have to live with a little bit of inconsistency. While the 
                emergence of Daryl 
                Richardson and the lack of passing-game use have been discouraging 
                to this point for Jackson’s owners, I’m not sure the Rams can 
                afford to scale back his touches anymore with Amendola out. While 
                Brandon 
                Gibson appears to benefit the most from Amendola’s absence, 
                I’m not so sure we don’t start seeing a lot more of Steve 
                Smith, who is a natural replacement for Amendola in the slot 
                even if he lacks the chemistry Bradford had with his top receiver. 
                However, given that Smith was inactive for this game and Austin 
                Pettis was, there’s reason to believe Pettis may be the first 
                in line to replace Amendola. Eagles-Steelers  
                  Is it time to panic if you're a Jeremy 
                    Maclin owner? Maybe it ends up being nothing, but it seemed to me that Philadelphia 
                ran the ball a lot to the left side in the first half and to the 
                right in the second half (after doing a lot of damage against 
                NYG to the right last week). Jeremy Maclin’s last four weeks 
                have been discouraging – to say the least – but I 
                don’t see much reason for concern, especially since there 
                has been no news regarding his hip pointer lately. (Maclin just 
                missed on a TD reception and was interfered with on another 40-50 
                yard throw in this contest.) After being miscast in the Eagles’ 
                defense last season, CB Nnamdi Asomugha is still not living up 
                to his reputation this season and has graded negatively in three 
                of his last four games, already having committed four penalties 
                this season. As for the Steelers, they ran a lot of draws for 
                Rashard Mendenhall and generated bigger holes in the running game 
                than I have seen all season. I was actually more impressed with 
                Mendenhall’s debut than Adrian Peterson’s in Week 
                1 as Mendenhall appeared to be quicker than he was before his 
                injury, which doesn’t seem possible less than 10 months 
                after surgery. Fantasy implications: I’m not sure if there is ever a buy-low 
                time for the elite fantasy RBs like LeSean McCoy, but if you currently 
                have a RB like Stevan Ridley or Alfred Morris that feels like 
                they may be a bit too good to be true, it may not be a bad idea 
                to float those backs and another potential starter at another 
                position to the McCoy owner. While I don’t usually agree 
                with Jon Gruden’s player analysis, I tend to agree with 
                him when he says McCoy is the closest thing we’ve seen to 
                Barry Sanders since the Hall of Famer retired. I still have little 
                doubt Maclin will fulfill my preseason expectations as a potential 
                low-end WR1 in fantasy, even if he seems to get nicked up a bit 
                more than his owners would like to see. I was most surprised by 
                Mendenhall, who makes it 3-for-3 on backs outperforming my expectations 
                coming off ACL surgery. It seems unreal that Jamaal Charles. Peterson 
                and Mendenhall - especially the last two – have been so 
                effective at the 10-month mark when the standard recovery timetable 
                used to be anywhere from 12-18 months not too long ago. Ravens-Chiefs Jamaal 
                Charles routinely getting to the edge early to generate many 
                of his rushing yards early, but Baltimore did a much better job 
                of beating him to the spot in the second half after stacking the 
                box, something future opponents would be wise to do from the get-go. 
                Of course, the losses of Terrell 
                Suggs and Jarrett Johnson in the offseason have made the Ravens 
                a middle-of-the-road run-stopping unit. Fumbling is getting to 
                be a concern with three over the past two weeks, two of which 
                resulted in turnovers. His current workload is not only a concern 
                for a running back of his size, but for any RB in general, especially 
                one coming off a severe knee injury. In this contest, it really 
                stuck out to me how often Dwayne 
                Bowe is the one and only read for Matt 
                Cassel on straight drop-back passes. On the surface, this 
                game appeared to be Joe Flacco regressing to the same quarterback 
                he was a few years ago who thrived at home but bottomed out on 
                the road, but after watching the game, I’m more inclined to believe 
                that penalties at key times disrupted any kind of offensive flow 
                the Ravens tried to establish, ultimately killing a number of 
                Baltimore drives. Fantasy implications: Charlie Weis must really be a miracle worker 
                because given the number of times I have seen Cassel since Weis 
                left in 2010, he should not be a NFL starting quarterback (a ridiculously 
                easy schedule in 2010 had something to do with his career year 
                as well). Regarding Charles – despite his recent numbers 
                – the big questions each week should probably be: 1) how 
                quickly defenses stack the box against Kansas City and ultimately 
                “set the edge”, forcing him to run inside and 2) how 
                long can he hold up under his current workload. I’m sure 
                people aren’t going to understand my continued support for 
                Peyton Hillis – granted he is not Charles (quite the opposite 
                actually) – but I don’t like Charles’ ability 
                to hold up or even be effective long-term at this rate. And now, 
                with Brady Quinn under center for at least a week, I don’t 
                think Charles’ touches will decrease. While Charles rarely 
                ever takes a big hit, I fear for any RB in today’s NFL averaging 
                31 touches/game over an extended stretch. Browns-Giants Josh Gordon’s first touchdown came as a result of the Giants’ 
                inexplicable decision to use LB Chase Blackburn to guard the slot 
                receiver. That decision was made worse by S Antrel Rolle’s 
                slow reaction to Gordon thanks to a token play-fake by QB Brandon 
                Weeden. However, Gordon could have actually scored a third touchdown 
                if Weeden hadn’t thrown a poor ball on a slant pattern in 
                the red zone. Victor Cruz is nearly impossible to guard – 
                as in Wes Welker in-his-prime – not exactly breaking news, 
                I know. His lateral agility is among the best in the league today 
                and it shows in the number of yards he collects after the catch. 
                The Giants love to run the misdirection toss play with RB David 
                Wilson, something I saw a few times in the preseason and again 
                in Week 5. While I’m not quite sure if it is the team’s 
                concession to the rookie since he often reversed field at Virginia 
                Tech or just a clever play drawn up by OC Kevin Gilbride to accentuate 
                his speed, it’s something that I believe we’ll be 
                seeing a time or two more from Wilson down the road. Fantasy implications: Weeden’s 
                strong arm certainly matches up well with Gordon’s ability to 
                go deep , but even with reports that Gordon “turned a corner” 
                in practice last week, I’d be hesitant to put much faith in the 
                Browns’ supplemental draft pick quite yet. As hard as it is for 
                me to believe I’m actually typing this, the Browns need Mohamed 
                Massaquoi back in the worst way in order to let Gordon grow 
                as a receiver this year and not be pressed into a lead-receiver 
                role just because he has the talent. Cruz’s ability speaks for 
                itself, which makes it that much harder to believe he was considered 
                to be one of the Giants’ final cuts during the 2010 preseason. 
                Wilson’s 40-yard TD run was a thing of beauty as he shot through 
                the Browns’ secondary untouched in a heartbeat. While no single 
                run will do the trick, the fact that he didn’t make a glaring 
                mistake in this game should help open the door for him to establish 
                a more regular role in the offense in the coming weeks.  Packers- Colts In what should have been a plus-matchup for Cedric Benson, he 
                managed to rush for less than 3.0 YPC before injuring his foot, 
                which will probably end his season. A highly questionable roughing-the-passer 
                call on Nick Perry in the first half– which negated a likely 
                fumble return for a touchdown for the Packers’ defense – 
                and an overturned interception by CB Tramon Williams in which 
                the ball did not move as he fell to the ground probably changed 
                the course of this game and the perception of the Green Bay defense. 
                In no way am I trying to defend the Packers’ inability to 
                hold a 21-3 lead, but 28-3 probably eliminates any chance of a 
                comeback. Donald Brown isn’t getting into the end zone, 
                but given how poorly the Colts’ offensive line has blocked 
                for Vick Ballard so far, the Colts need Brown’s speed on 
                the field to get to the edge to have any semblance of a consistent 
                running game. (I’ll be interested to see how much this changes 
                as the Colts face a string of weak defenses in the coming weeks.) 
                Dwayne Allen has seen 44 fewer pass-play snaps this season than 
                Coby Fleener, but despite missing Week 1, the Clemson alum has 
                played two more snaps overall than his pass-catching complement. Fantasy implications: Generally speaking, I understand most of 
                the comments analysts make about certain players, even if I don’t 
                always agree with them. However, the notion that Benson was helping 
                this offense confuses me. Here’s a player who rushed for 
                3.5 YPC with a long run of 11 yards through 4 ½ games and 
                71 carries this season. By comparison, Alex Green broke loose 
                for a 41-yard run on his ninth and final rushing attempt of this 
                game, showing impressive speed to set the Packers up for their 
                final score. Speaking of running the football, Brown recorded 
                at least 16 carries in each of his last three games, but he’s 
                likely out the next 2-3 weeks following a knee scope, leaving 
                Ballard with a trio of juicy matchups over that time. Given the 
                fact that Andrew Luck isn’t throwing to his running backs 
                (seven catches on 11 targets), there isn’t much upside in 
                PPR leagues. But it is hard not to like Ballard’s chances 
                of managing decent flex value against the likes of the Jets, Browns 
                and Titans – assuming Brown does not return before then. 
               Dolphins-Bengals It is amazing how much Reggie Bush has improved as a runner. 
                While he still has some of the elusiveness we remember from his 
                college days as well as his time with the Saints, he is much more 
                decisive runner than he was even two years ago. It was hard to 
                get a good read on BenJarvus Green-Ellis in this game simply because 
                Miami’s top-ranked rush defense lived up to its billing, 
                at least against him. “Law Firm” ran as hard as he 
                always does, but he offers about as much big-play potential as 
                Benson did during his Bengals’ career. (Green-Ellis hasn’t 
                broken a 20+ yard run since Week 15 of the 2010 season with New 
                England.) Fantasy owners who chased Brian Hartline’s Week 
                4 success likely came away disappointed in his effort against 
                Cincinnati. However, the Dolphins led for the last 36+ minutes 
                of the game, so Ryan Tannehill attempted a career-low 26 passes, 
                meaning panic is unwarranted. After watching the two last two 
                games on Hartline, I’ll admit I was wrong about him. He’s 
                not a special talent, but all he needed to be a productive NFL 
                receiver was a decent quarterback to believe in him. I think we 
                have seen over the past two weeks that Tannehill is well on his 
                way to becoming something more than a “decent quarterback”. Fantasy implications: One of the reasons that pushed me over 
                the top in regards to signing up for Game Rewind was so I could 
                finally speak intelligently about players like Hartline, who was 
                essentially cast into a deep-threat role under the previous coaching 
                regime. I’m not entirely sure Bush is convinced he is 100% 
                recovered from his knee injury, but he’s close. Even though 
                Jorvorskie Lane and Daniel Thomas appear to be the short-yardage 
                backs of choice in Miami, Bush is a player I want for the rest 
                of the season in fantasy, especially after looking at the rest 
                of his schedule. On the other hand, Green-Ellis is trending the 
                wrong way in a hurry after an impressive opener, failing to top 
                3.6 YPC in any of his last four games, including average-at-best 
                performances against the Browns and Jaguars’ poor run defenses. 
                Then again, there was a reason why a “feature back” 
                like him was drafted so low in fantasy. Bernard Scott showed just 
                the kind of burst the Bengals needed in the running before he 
                was lost for the season with a torn ACL. While Brian Leonard is 
                the next in line, owners in deeper leagues should want to consider 
                Cedric Peerman as a player who may eventually force a committee 
                with “Law Firm”.  Falcons-Redskins So far, it appears Atlanta pulled one over on Jacquizz Rodgers 
                and his fantasy owners. Certainly, his snaps have gone up this 
                season (148 through five games after seeing just 319 all of last 
                season), but Michael Turner has touched the ball on 43.5% of his 
                snaps (81 touches on 186 snaps) while Rodgers has just 41 touches 
                on 148 snaps (27.7%). In a comment that should already be familiar 
                to anyone who has seen Turner run lately, it is inconceivable 
                to me how a team that wants to play with the pace and pass-heavy 
                approach the Falcons do that Turner continues to see the workload 
                he does. Yes, he is doing fine statistically, but each of his 
                last two TDs have come on plays the defense simply fell asleep 
                and the majority of his runs appear to be over before they start. 
                There is no doubt in my mind that Rodgers would not only be more 
                productive with the touches Turner has received, but the team 
                would also avoid putting Matt Ryan into “comeback mode” 
                while they wait for the running game to “warm up”. 
                While Alfred Morris is no speed demon himself, he has the one 
                trait no recent Mike Shanahan RB has had – the ability to 
                stay healthy. However, let’s hope that OC Kyle Shanahan 
                was simply complimenting Morris’ hard-charging running style, 
                vision, quick feet and strong lower body when he said the rookie 
                has “some of Terrell Davis” in him. Fantasy implications: Turner owners will inevitably suggest his 
                production speaks for itself, but this offense is not clicking 
                on all cylinders and has been forced to rally twice in consecutive 
                weeks against weaker opponents in part because I doubt defensive 
                coordinators lose much sleep over Turner anymore. At this point, 
                it will probably take a painful loss for Atlanta to change their 
                ways in the backfield, but I stated earlier in the year that Turner 
                is a back who doesn’t scare me in fantasy simply because 
                I have a lot of confidence in the fact that he won’t break 
                a long run as long as the defense doesn’t severely blow 
                an assignment. I have no problem with him being the main short-yardage 
                option or the “four-minute back” that comes in to 
                put the game away against a tired defense, but it is actually 
                hard for me to watch him run now. Seahawks-Panthers Commentators often say football is an emotional game. If that 
                is the case, why does Carolina wait so long to get Steve 
                Smith – the emotional center of this offense – into the game? 
                I’ve seen Philadelphia open the game on a number of occasions 
                in recent years with a play-action deep throw to DeSean 
                Jackson and don’t see why the Panthers couldn’t do the same. 
                While he saw 13 targets in this contest, too many of those came 
                in obvious passing situations, which is a recipe for disaster 
                against Seattle’s physical cornerbacks. Of course, it doesn’t 
                help matters when Cam 
                Newton is fighting himself as a passer and his receivers and 
                backs drop the few easy throws he had in this contest. To be fair, 
                though, I don’t think a single Carolina offensive player played 
                all that well, the second time in the last three weeks that has 
                been the case. Even though his numbers were average (for him), 
                I am continually impressed with Marshawn 
                Lynch’s ability to get yards after contact. And although his 
                overall numbers are going to be average at best in the Seahawks’ 
                overly conservative offense, I’ve seen Golden 
                Tate flash a couple of times this season, something of a surprise 
                since he has been hyped and disappointed for a few years now. Fantasy implications: Even though C Ryan Kalil was grading out 
                as one of the worst run-blocking centers prior to his season-ending 
                Lisfranc injury, the running game can’t be expected to perform 
                better without the Pro Bowl pivot. In all likelihood, Newton will 
                be asked to carry even more of the offense now and one would assume 
                with such a dreadful defense, his numbers will come through the 
                air. I’ll be anxious to see if the bye week helps the Panthers 
                get their offense on track. The inability to get Smith the ball 
                nearly as much this season (completion rate is at 55%, down from 
                61% last season) as the sparkplug WR needed a 13-target game in 
                Week 5 just to get back in the same target rate he saw last season. 
                As for Lynch, his fantasy owners already know not to expect a 
                ton of catches, but they are probably praying that Seattle somehow 
                learns to trust Russell Wilson enough in the coming weeks so he 
                can attempt more than 25 passes per game, which he hasn’t 
                done in four straight weeks.  Bears-Jaguars I’m not sure what was more surprising: the fact this was a 3-3 
                game midway through the third quarter or that Jacksonville has 
                been outscored at home this season 95-20. Let that second nugget 
                wash over you for a second. Now consider that Maurice 
                Jones-Drew has seen a total of 31 touches over the last two 
                weeks and no more than 13 rushing attempts in any of those three 
                home games and we can begin to understand why Jacksonville is 
                1-4. Justin 
                Blackmon didn’t look to be pressing near as much in this game 
                and showed some of the same ability to get open that he did during 
                the preseason, but Chicago took that away pretty quickly once 
                the Jags thought they had found something. Not surprisingly, Cecil 
                Shorts seems to be the only player capable of threatening 
                a defense down the field, which will continue to make this offense 
                a below-average unit more often than not. As for Chicago, the 
                defense held Jacksonville in check as long as it needed to before 
                the Bears fired up the passing attack and got a couple of TD returns 
                from Lance 
                Briggs and Charles 
                Tillman. Matt 
                Forte once again looked like the same all-purpose monster 
                he has always been, which is great news as the Bears head into 
                their bye. Fantasy implications: The Jags’ 
                offense simply cannot be expected to hang with the likes of Houston 
                and Chicago if MJD – who averaged 4.8 YPC in those two games – 
                isn’t getting 12 carries per half, much less a game as was the 
                case in those two losses. For what it is worth, the road ahead 
                should get better for MJD after the bye with Oakland, Green Bay 
                and Indianapolis serving as three of the next four opponents. 
                While I’m sure I’ll talk about the Bears’ offense more in future 
                weeks, this game was all about Chicago’s defense, especially in 
                the second half. Brandon 
                Marshall continues to see a ton of targets and is a matchup 
                nightmare, as expected. But ultimately how consistent Marshall 
                will be going forward is going to rely a lot upon how often “Bad 
                Jay 
                Cutler” shows up compared to how often “Good Jay 
                Cutler” sees the field. We saw both again in this game. Titans-Vikings If indifference can show up on tape, then I believe that is exactly 
                what I saw from Tennessee’s offense. The offensive line 
                is starting to rival Arizona’s as the worst in the NFL and 
                can only seem to give Chris Johnson a hole to run through on about 
                4-5 plays per game. I’ve also seen no fire from the front 
                five outside of the Houston game, which is particularly concerning 
                since HC Mike Munchak’s background is on the offensive line. 
                Of the three Titans’ games I have seen thus far, this game 
                was the first time that Johnson appeared to be anticipating contact 
                (in the bad way) – at least on his first few carries – 
                which is hardly surprising when we consider how often has been 
                hit in the backfield in 2012. That’s not to say he was hesitant 
                in the hole, but it was the most hesitant I’ve seen him 
                this season. Much like Johnson, Adrian Peterson didn’t see 
                much success on traditional running plays as both players saw 
                the majority of their yards come via draws and delays. The use 
                of the tight ends (or lack thereof) in this game was startling. 
                Matt Hasselbeck did not target Jared Cook at all in the first 
                three quarters while Kyle Rudolph was absent from the game plan 
                until late – when it seemed Christian Ponder began to force-feed 
                him the ball – against the worst defense vs. TEs.  Fantasy implications: One of the main reasons I wanted to make 
                a move to this format was to better identify why players like 
                Johnson are struggling (and, contrary to popular belief, not because 
                I wanted to see more of my two least favorite NFL play-callers 
                – Chris Palmer and Bill Musgrave). I went back to some of 
                his 2009 tape for answers and two things became immediately clear: 
                1) very little defensive penetration and 2) a number of his big 
                runs came out of shotgun. In that 2,000-yard season, Johnson averaged 
                11.4 YPC out of 36 “gun-runs” and 7.5 YPC on 132 carries 
                in single-back formations. In short, Johnson needs space to run 
                and hasn’t performed well in two-back sets ever since he 
                became a pro, so the Titans are wasting their time when they do 
                it. His on-field demeanor will likely never be seen as charming, 
                but I have my doubts that his attitude is what is driving this 
                franchise down, which some people seem to be suggesting. I am 
                anxious to see how he performs against Pittsburgh this Thursday 
                – minus Troy Polamalu and LaMarr Woodley – because 
                if he can gash the Steelers for a big run or two like another 
                struggling back did (Darren McFadden), the schedule provides a 
                possible three-game window for owners to get out from this potential 
                mess of a situation in Tennessee since the poor run defenses of 
                the Bills and Colts await in Weeks 7 and 8. Bills-Niners Michael 
                Crabtree and Vernon 
                Davis were open at will in this game as Buffalo’s defense 
                continues to underachieve in a big way, giving up an almost-unthinkable 
                300+ yards rushing AND 300+ yards passing. While San Francisco 
                did some things to throw the Bills off-balance and Alex 
                Smith was displaying pinpoint accuracy on many of his throws, 
                there were at least two occasions in which Buffalo lacked awareness 
                and effort in chasing down a ball carrier down on long runs from 
                Frank 
                Gore and Smith. The offense wasn’t much better either with 
                a woeful 115 yards passing. Brad 
                Smith enjoyed a 35-yard run out of the “Wildcat” and C.J. 
                Spiller also had a nice 12-yard run, but outside of those 
                two plays, there wasn’t much to like about Buffalo’s performance. Fantasy implications: There’s simply no excuse for the 
                Bills’ defense to be this bad. In three losses to the Jets, 
                Patriots and Niners, Buffalo has surrendered a minimum of 45 points 
                in each game. To be blunt, this tells me the Bills either have 
                little pride or little direction on defense. (With Dave Wannstedt 
                in charge, it would not surprise me if it was more of the latter.) 
                Meanwhile, San Francisco doesn’t blow opportunities and 
                it doesn’t often give opponents many chances to exploit 
                the few weaknesses it does have. When the Niners have a chance 
                to tackle somebody, they do it. When they grab a lead, they usually 
                hold and extend it. Merril Hoge (from ESPN’s NFL Matchup) 
                said earlier this season that San Francisco has the league’s 
                best offense. While that is a bit of a stretch in terms of overall 
                numbers, he may be right when it comes to efficiency.  Broncos-Patriots Seeing New England run its offense at breakneck speed certainly 
                makes for an enjoyable watch, but I am fairly certain defenses 
                will start picking up the Pats’ tendency to run off-tackle and 
                stretch plays just about every time they choose to operate at 
                that speed, if they haven’t already. Of course, tackling Stevan 
                Ridley or Brandon 
                Bolden is a chore no matter how quickly the offense moves, 
                so it may not matter if the defense knows what is coming. By my 
                highly unofficial count, Eric 
                Decker has drawn pass interference penalties in the end zone 
                on at least three potential touchdown catches this season. There’s 
                no denying Demaryius 
                Thomas is the physically-superior player, but ball security 
                (three fumbles already this season) has become a small concern 
                with him. I’m also a bit surprised by the lack of routes he is 
                asked to run. Willis 
                McGahee’s dropped pass on a fourth down and a late fumble 
                – both in the fourth quarter – may be just the opening rookie 
                Ronnie 
                Hillman needs to secure a larger piece of the backfield pie 
                although the rookie was getting more snaps in recent weeks anyway. 
                Still, there’s very little chance that McGahee doesn’t remain 
                the clear lead back in Denver this season simply because the Broncos 
                have taken such care in managing his workload thus far. Fantasy implications: There is no longer any doubt that New England 
                learned a lesson from last season: no threat in the running game 
                typically leads to a lack of a ring at the end of the season. 
                As long as Ridley doesn’t make fumbling a habit – 
                the very thing that led to his reduced role last season – 
                his job security should be a non-issue. However, much like Tom 
                Coughlin, if there is a coach who cannot stand ball-security issues, 
                it is Bill Belichick. With the amount of plays the Pats can run 
                nowadays (averaging just under 78 through five games), Ridley 
                is a very good bet for 20 carries on a weekly basis if he simply 
                does not fumble. Since most of the Broncos’ difficult opponents 
                are out of the way now, don’t be surprised if McGahee has 
                a strong month-plus, with my only concern being that the soon-to-be 
                31-year-old begins to wear down after about 200+ carries.  Chargers-Saints I’m always amazed when a player dominates early on in a 
                game only to disappear for the next two-plus quarters. Such was 
                the case Sunday night for Malcom Floyd, who had two catches for 
                71 yards on the Chargers’ second drive of the game alone 
                but was not heard from again until San Diego needed to rally on 
                the final drive. As mismatches go, Floyd’s 6-5 frame and 
                ability to get deep should have been exploited all game long against 
                a horrible Saints’ secondary. Granted, he did see eight 
                targets, but from 5:45 in the second quarter until the six-minute 
                mark of the fourth quarter (a play Philip Rivers was intercepted), 
                Floyd wasn’t targeted once. Robert Meachem caught two touchdowns, 
                but I haven’t yet seen any hint of this “complete 
                receiver” HC Norv Turner was talking about upon signing 
                him this offseason. I’ll get more into it down the road, 
                but the Saints’ lack of stubbornness with the run and the 
                distribution of those carries in concerning. With the only notable 
                loss on the offensive line being LG Carl Nicks, the Saints have 
                gone from a team averaging 4.9 YPC and 132.9 yards rushing in 
                2011 to 3.9 YPC and 75.2 yards in 2012. Darren Sproles (averaging 
                5.4 YPC) is averaging just nine touches while Pierre Thomas (4.9 
                YPC) has as many carries as Mark Ingram (37) despite outgaining 
                him by 2.0 YPC. Based on last season, this change has little to 
                do with the loss of HC Sean Payton since current OC Pete Carmichael 
                called plays for the final 10 regular-season games, when the offense 
                was more productive than with Payton running the show. Fantasy implications: The receiver position is typically an inconsistent 
                one in fantasy due to game situation, talent and a whole host 
                of other factors, but it doesn’t make fantasy owners feel 
                any better to see their player dominate a drive only to not get 
                targeted for nearly 30 minutes in a plus-matchup. Vincent Brown’s 
                eventual return should go a long way in helping Floyd be more 
                consistent. Meachem still looks like a matchup-fantasy WR to me 
                right now, but with some success under their collective belts 
                now, Rivers may be ready to trust Meachem a bit more. Sproles’ 
                part-time role isn’t a surprise, but with the amount of 
                time New Orleans has trailed this season, it is odd that his passing-game 
                numbers haven’t spiked. The player I feel truly sad for 
                is Thomas, who continues to suffer statistically despite being 
                one of the league’s most effective and highest-graded running 
                backs.   Texans-Jets In short, this game was much more about what Houston failed to 
                do than it was about what New York did. With no threat of a running 
                game (and thus, little reason to acknowledge play-action) and 
                a passer who completed less than 50% of his passes for a fourth 
                consecutive game in Mark Sanchez, Houston continually let the 
                likes of Jason Hill, Antonio Cromartie, Jeremy Kerley and Jeff 
                Cumberland get behind the defense. After putting together a first 
                drive one would expect from a complete (and healthy) offense playing 
                against a shorthanded defense, I very much got the feeling the 
                Texans took their foot off the pedal in what was easily their 
                worst overall performance of the season. The one Jets’ player 
                I respected the most entering the game – Jeremy Kerley – 
                was the one New York player I was most impressed with from this 
                game. And for Houston, I’d be remiss if I don’t mention 
                J.J. Watt…what an incredible player. There are plenty of 
                defensive backs who don’t get their hands on as many balls 
                as he does or situational pass rushers who sack the quarterback 
                as often he does and that two things alone don’t even begin 
                to tell the story on the impact he has on a game. Fantasy implications: Watching 
                a running game like the Texans’ on the same day I watch a running 
                game like the Titans really provides an eye-opening display of 
                how a running game should work vs. one that appears to have no 
                clue. In the Houston games I’ve watched this season, I’m not sure 
                I can recall five times combined in which Arian 
                Foster has been forced to dodge a tackler in the backfield 
                while Chris 
                Johnson is lucky to go one half with that kind of success. 
                The loss of Brian 
                Cushing figures to have a substantial impact on the defense, 
                but not so much that the Texans fall too far down the ladder in 
                regards to fantasy defenses. With three useful fantasy games in 
                five tries playing for a dreadful offense, it might be about time 
                to think about giving Kerley a turn at WR3 or a flex if those 
                spots are of some concern to your fantasy team…at least until 
                the inevitable Tim 
                Tebow promotion, that is.
 Suggestions, comments, musings about the article 
                or fantasy football in general? E-mail 
                me or follow me on Twitter. 
                
 Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA 
              Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last 
              two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for 
              106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member 
              of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
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