The best-laid plans on draft day often give way to moments of desperation
around midseason. Fantasy owners that came away from the draft with
three quality options at running back and wide receiver typically
find themselves scrambling for healthy bodies by Week 7. During
the course of this frantic period, which typically lends itself
to believing in players you knew you didn’t want anywhere
near your team a month or two ago. For example, I was convinced
entering the season I would not add a New York Jet to any of my
rosters this season. It took a little over a month before I broke
that “rule”.
One thing is for certain every year in most competitive leagues:
the fantasy season will take us in so many different directions
that it is very possible you may not recognize the team you drafted
by the time the season comes to an end. For the unlucky few, adversity
strikes in a multitude of different ways: consistently running
into opponent’s “big weeks”, encountering countless
injuries and/or parading through what seems like a never-ending
stretch of ill-timed bye weeks.
I have long maintained it is an owner’s ability to navigate
these troubled waters that distinguishes fantasy playoff teams
from the ones that miss out on the postseason. Part of steering
that ship through the 13-16 week season involves adding players
to your roster that are essentially sight-unseen properties. Last
season, David Wilson was a disappointing rookie stapled to the
New York Giants’ bench because of an early fumbling problem.
Similarly, Cecil Shorts was strictly a deep-ball specialist connected
with Blaine Gabbert with a knack for scoring touchdowns.
One of the best parts of scouting is uncovering talent first
and seeing the potential in something or someone when others cannot.
One of my favorite parts about doing what I do is being able to
evaluate a virtual unknown player’s ability I see on TV
(or NFL Game Rewind) and make fairly concrete determinations based
on it. Predicting a breakout based on limited information is usually
incredibly difficult, but not impossible. Making my job more challenging
are all the off-field obstacles that tend to slow down a player’s
rags-to-riches story. As much as we want sports to be about the
best players will play, coaches (as well as scouts and general
managers on the pro level) hate to admit their initial evaluation
of a player was wrong. Other times, a player simply isn’t
ready to burst on the scene when we want him to, dealing with
some personal issue we don’t know about or simply too immature
to deal with the pressures of the job. There are a multitude of
reasons for not realizing one’s potential; all we can hope
is that our players recognize they are professionals and bring
their A-game to the field each and every week.
Either way, part of the formula to winning fantasy championships
every season is to identify the supposed nameless wonders who
are contributing virtually nothing at the moment but are primed
for the opportunity to be second-half standouts with a little
luck. Some of the players below are known quantities that have
been shoved to the wayside because of injury or some other reason,
but my goal this week is to remind – or introduce, in some
cases – players to you that probably are likely not on rosters
(and if they are, they are dirt cheap). While there are several
more players we could discuss in a column such as this one, I
identified 10 players I believe can either get help you through
the bye weeks or injuries, become regular starters before the
end of the season and/or serve as a solid player for your dynasty
team.
To give you some perspective on how deep some of my more leagues
are, I’ll give you an example from the league I consider
to be my most important: 48 of the 52 top-scoring backs and 50
of the top-scoring 51 receivers are owned. (At running back, the
free agents are Chris Ogbonnaya, Ahmad Bradshaw, Mike Tolbert
and James Starks. At receiver, the lone free agent of the bunch
is Julio Jones.) The recommendations below are for owners in very
deep 12-team (or larger) leagues with fairly deep benches. While
there is a good chance some of the players below are owned in
your league, I’m quite confident all of them are not.
The Names You Should Already Know
Dunbar is the best fantasy backup to DeMarco
Murray.
Lance
Dunbar, RB Dallas – Dunbar may not qualify as one of
the top five handcuffs in fantasy football, but I would argue
the owner of DeMarco
Murray in every league should have him on his roster. Rookie
Joseph
Randle appears to be in line to start Week 7 and will generate
the most interest from fantasy owners, but Dunbar is the better
fantasy back of the two and a player the coaches love. Randle
was drafted this April in large part because Cowboys owner Jerry
Jones believed he “mirrored” Murray, but the main reason he fell
in the draft was because he lacked big-play ability. Dunbar has
the explosiveness Randle lacks but lacks the ideal size, which
probably means the two will share snaps when both are healthy
and Murray is not. With that said, I would expect Dallas to go
with a very pass-heavy approach with Murray out and the defense
beat up. That favors the second-year back, who Tony
Romo trusts as a receiver. The one caveat: hamstring injuries
are unpredictable and there’s no guarantee Dunbar beats Murray
back on the field.
Shonn
Greene, RB Tennessee – While I can understand why Greene
is available in every one of my redraft leagues, it doesn’t mean
he should be. The natural argument will be if someone as explosive
as Chris
Johnson isn’t getting yards behind the Titans’ offensive line,
why would a plodder like Greene? It’s a fair point, but when you
combine the loss of QB Jake Locker with a long stretch of difficult
run defenses, it is not as if Johnson has “lost it”. I firmly
believe Johnson will begin to “awaken” a bit this week before
putting together a solid second half of the season, but his upside
will be limited by the fact he will not see goal-line carries.
Enter Greene, who the Titans wanted to use in that role while
also giving Johnson a break every third series or so. So while
I believe Johnson offers some second-half low-end RB2 appeal,
that doesn’t mean the coaching staff will continue feeding him
the ball at the rate they have been with a healthy Greene around.
Johnson has never been particularly good at breaking tackles (which
is definitely the case again this year) and the team refuses to
use him in the same fashion the late OC Mike Heimerdinger did
during his best seasons. Unlike last year, Tennessee has the defense
necessary to stick with the run for as long as it wants and that
dedication to the rushing attack will begin to pay off as the
Titans stop playing the Jets, Chiefs and Seahawks (their last
three opponents) and start playing the Rams, Jaguars and Colts
(their next three foes after the Week 8 bye). As Tennessee begins
to impose its will on defenses over the second half of the season,
Johnson and Greene should have a fair amount of scoring opportunities.
Relying on short-yardage touchdowns is not a recipe for fantasy
success, but the Titans’ plan all along was to use Greene like
LenDale White during the days of “Smash-and-Dash”. I feel confident
that Greene will see enough work to be a decent – if not strong
– flex option upon his return, which could happen as soon as this
week.
Chris
Ogbonnaya, RB Cleveland – Wait, what…isn’t Willis
McGahee the new unquestioned back for the Browns? Well, yes
and no. McGahee carries the ground game for the most part, which
is just great when Cleveland’s defense has everything under control.
However, it should be noted that McGahee has played 29 or fewer
snaps in two of the last three weeks while Ogbonnaya has seen
at least 40 in two of his last three games. The reason: part of
it is his ability to contribute as a receiver and familiarity
with the passing game, which figures to play a key role in his
ability to be a borderline flex play over the next month or so
– at least in PPR formats. For various reasons, Ogbonnaya could
be a regular target as Cleveland faces the Packers, Chiefs, Ravens,
Bengals and Steelers over its next five contests. Even in its
weakened state, the Green Bay offense should score against Cleveland
while the Browns’ AFC North rivals can all stop the run. It is
conceivable that McGahee isn’t seeing a lot of time when the Browns
pass (47 passing-play snaps in his first four games in Cleveland
versus Ogbonnaya’s 171 such snaps in six contests, per Pro Football
Focus) and that the 27-year-old hybrid tailback/fullback could
be more valuable than the ex-Bronco and Bill.
Cordarrelle
Patterson, WR Minnesota – Somewhere in the mess of
the season the Vikings have created for themselves, the first-round
rookie has been forgotten or ignored. (You already know about
my disdain for OC Bill Musgrave if you are a regular reader of
this column, so the fact Minnesota isn’t maximizing its potential
on offense should come as little surprise.) Few will argue that
Jerome
Simpson is a NFL-quality receiver, but his best role is that
of a situational deep threat; Patterson is a big receiver who
excels in space. (Does that sound like someone the Vikings used
to have?) Per Pro Football Focus, Patterson has played a total
of 63 snaps this season (or less than half the number of Jarius
Wright, for some perspective) and seen fewer than 20 snaps
in every game. At some point that is going to change; if not because
Minnesota continues to lose and wants to get its youngsters some
more playing time, perhaps it will be because Musgrave has been
given his walking papers or Greg
Jennings gets hurt. When that day comes, owners will want
Patterson on their roster. However, my recommendation is not strictly
based on what should happen on the depth chart, it is in part
because new starting QB Josh Freeman is more of a downfield thrower
(and overall better quarterback) than either Christian
Ponder or Matt
Cassel. Is Freeman a significant upgrade? Probably, but I’m
not sure that we’ll be able to see how much better he is than
his predecessors until he gets a handful of starts and digests
the playbook over the next month or so. So, with an upgrade at
quarterback and the hopeful realization (and based on Musgrave’s
track record, hopeful is the correct word choice) that a big-play
all-purpose threat like Patterson has to play at least half of
his team’s snaps, I suggest owners pick him up and stash him.
It may take a while longer, but his upside is higher than just
about any other receiver that is readily available in redraft
leagues.
The Names You Likely Just Became Familiar
With Recently
Jarrett
Boykin, WR Green Bay – The immediate reaction is that
he’ll be a one-week pickup with little-to-no upside when James
Jones returns (if he even misses a game) while Jermichael
Finley sees more time in the slot. I’m not so sure he doesn’t
become a semi-permanent fixture with a solid game against Cleveland
this week, which is certainly possible given how easily Kris Durham
posted an eight-catch-game last week against the Browns (mostly
against the cornerback opposite Joe
Haden, Buster
Skrine). Boykin isn’t a candidate to fill in for Randall
Cobb in the slot, but if the undrafted free agent rewards
Aaron
Rodgers’ preseason
confidence in him with a strong performance in Week 7, then
Green Bay may choose to leave Jones and Boykin on the outside
and ask Nelson to take on some of Cobb’s slot duties.
Kris
Durham, WR Detroit – Like Boykin, Durham is hardly
an overwhelming talent. In fact, there’s little question Ryan
Broyles is the superior option opposite Calvin
Johnson, but the snap count would seem to suggest there are
some trust issues – either with Broyles’ knee or with the receiver
himself. Durham has played 197 of a possible 211 snaps over the
last three weeks while Broyles has seen 120 over that same time
(per Pro Football Focus). Despite athletic limitations, there
are several reasons to buy Durham going forward: 1) as a former
college teammate of Matthew
Stafford, there is history and obvious
rapport between the two; 2) as a member of a pass-happy offense
receiving starter’s snaps opposite Calvin Johnson, he will never
be a focal point of the defensive gameplan; and 3) Nate
Burleson is still a few weeks away from returning and Broyles
is already seeing fewer snaps than Durham even though Broyles
is “healthy”. Also, keep in mind that Burleson and Broyles are
best utilized as slot receivers, meaning the 6-6, 216-pound Durham
has staying power as long as he continues to “win his matchups”
and maintains his reliability as Stafford suggested in the linked
article. Barring a long-term injury to Johnson, last week’s 8-83-0
line will go down as one of Durham’s finer performances. With
that said, his size and Detroit’s pass-happy offense mean he could
regularly step into the production Burleson enjoyed before his
injury.
The Names You Might Forget As Quickly
As You See Them
Michael
Cox, RB NY Giants – HC Tom Coughlin has repeatedly
stated that his 2013 seventh-round draft choice is not ready,
but Cox remains perhaps my favorite dynasty-league stash. (I spent
$15 of my $100 budget this week to get him in my 12-team, 24-man
roster experts’ dynasty league.) I’ll get into the reasons for
why I value him so highly in dynasty in just a second, but there
could actually be a hint of redraft appeal here as well. ESPN
New York reported earlier this week that Cox was told by the coaches
he would play this week against the Minnesota Vikings. Usually,
that kind of “report” doesn’t mean much, at least until we consider
the fact David
Wilson will probably miss at least a month and the Giants
don’t have any player that knows the offense beyond 31-year-old
Brandon
Jacobs. Coughlin stated, "There are some things that I think
right now we feel good about (and) other things not so [good],”
in regards to Cox, which suggests he is more than ready as a runner
(as he showed in the preseason) and not as much as a blocker.
There is no doubt in my mind he brings more to the table than
Jacobs, so he’ll need to prove he isn’t a liability in pass protection
in order to warrant any kind of serious fantasy value this season.
Regarding his dynasty appeal, Andre
Brown can come back in Week 10, but has shown an inability
to stay healthy throughout and is on a one-year contract. Assuming
he somehow last the rest of 2013, Jacobs is unlikely to return
as well. Peyton
Hillis is even more of a stopgap option than Jacobs is. At
6-1, 214 pounds, Cox has the size to work in tandem with Wilson
and take on the role that Brown was supposed to fill this season
for a team that prides itself on running the ball.
Khiry
Robinson, RB New Orleans – The cat is already out of
the bag a little bit on one of several players I
highlighted during the preseason (scroll to the bottom of
the linked page). There are a few reasons why Robinson is a risky
proposition, with Mark
Ingram’s pending return and the Saints’ committee backfield
among them. Like Cox above, I have little question about Robinson’s
ability as a runner and believe he is a solid long-term prospect.
Although he is not quite as violent or explosive as Chris
Ivory, he is a smarter runner with better balance; I also
believe his long-term real and fantasy upside is higher than either
Ingram’s or Ivory’s. As I stated in the introduction, I’m fairly
certain Robinson will be the new Ivory in New Orleans based on
the front office’s desire to give Ingram every chance to succeed,
but that doesn’t mean the former first-rounder is the better player.
I actually believe that Robinson and Travaris
Cadet are more than capable of becoming the Saints’ primary
backfield components in 2015 when Ingram, Pierre
Thomas and Darren
Sproles will all become free agents. New Orleans will almost
certainly add another running back or two to the mix between now
and then, but the future of its backfield is in good hands regardless.
Mike
Brown, WR Jacksonville – Of all the players listed,
this is probably the lowest-upside recommendation with a very
small window to be productive in 2013. Having said that, it is
hard to believe Cecil
Shorts will play – much less be productive – when he is having
trouble raising his arm above his head. Shorts was diagnosed with
a sprained sternoclavicular joint that he suffered early in Week
6, which is the same injury that sidelined Ben
Roethlisberger for three weeks last season. Brown is hardly
the talent Shorts is, but he was another player I identified during
the preseason as a player that impressed me. Brown showed good
hands in Week 6 in relief of an in an injured Shorts and an ability
to find the soft spots in zone coverage, which is sometimes half
the battle with young receivers. Justin
Blackmon is going to draw some serious attention following
his huge performance against the Broncos, so Brown will be a regular
target for any games Shorts may be forced to miss. Brown is at
best a fringe option in 14- and 16-team leagues at the moment,
but he could easily work his way into 12-team league consideration
if Shorts is slow to heal.
Tim
Wright, TE Tampa Bay – Bucs OC Mike Sullivan has called
his new undrafted 6-4, 220-pound rookie out of Rutgers “a slow
receiver, but a dynamic tight end”. And that’s exactly how it
looks over his last two games; the Bucs are giving him about one
“shot” play per game and hitting him with a bunch of underneath
patterns. Better yet, his success is sustainable because Tampa
Bay does not possess a quality third receiver and he is regularly
drawing a linebacker in coverage. As most would expect of someone
of his size, he is rarely on the field on run plays (26 of his
127 snaps have come as a run blocker, per Pro Football Focus),
so it is best to think of him as a part-time player who will play
about half of his team’s snaps. While most owners will probably
start putting out waiver claims this week hoping to catch lightning
in a bottle after a seven-catch, 91-yard performance, I’ve seen
enough after two games to believe he is the rare unearthed gem
that could become a regular fantasy starter in short order. He
has caught 12 of his 15 targets over the last two weeks and has
no legitimate competition for his role. He has exploitable matchups
in each of the next two weeks (Atlanta and Carolina) and four
of the next five (Miami and Atlanta) after a difficult stop at
Seattle in Week 9.
Suggestions, comments, about the article
or fantasy football in general? E-mail
me or follow me on Twitter.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and appeared in
USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in 2010 and
2011. He is also the host of USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff
fantasy football internet chat every Sunday. Doug regularly appears
as a fantasy football analyst on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy
Drive” and for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C).
He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. |