| The best-laid plans on draft day often give way to moments of desperation 
              around midseason. Fantasy owners that came away from the draft with 
              three quality options at running back and wide receiver typically 
              find themselves scrambling for healthy bodies by Week 7. During 
              the course of this frantic period, which typically lends itself 
              to believing in players you knew you didn’t want anywhere 
              near your team a month or two ago. For example, I was convinced 
              entering the season I would not add a New York Jet to any of my 
              rosters this season. It took a little over a month before I broke 
              that “rule”.
 One thing is for certain every year in most competitive leagues: 
                the fantasy season will take us in so many different directions 
                that it is very possible you may not recognize the team you drafted 
                by the time the season comes to an end. For the unlucky few, adversity 
                strikes in a multitude of different ways: consistently running 
                into opponent’s “big weeks”, encountering countless 
                injuries and/or parading through what seems like a never-ending 
                stretch of ill-timed bye weeks. I have long maintained it is an owner’s ability to navigate 
                these troubled waters that distinguishes fantasy playoff teams 
                from the ones that miss out on the postseason. Part of steering 
                that ship through the 13-16 week season involves adding players 
                to your roster that are essentially sight-unseen properties. Last 
                season, David Wilson was a disappointing rookie stapled to the 
                New York Giants’ bench because of an early fumbling problem. 
                Similarly, Cecil Shorts was strictly a deep-ball specialist connected 
                with Blaine Gabbert with a knack for scoring touchdowns. One of the best parts of scouting is uncovering talent first 
                and seeing the potential in something or someone when others cannot. 
                One of my favorite parts about doing what I do is being able to 
                evaluate a virtual unknown player’s ability I see on TV 
                (or NFL Game Rewind) and make fairly concrete determinations based 
                on it. Predicting a breakout based on limited information is usually 
                incredibly difficult, but not impossible. Making my job more challenging 
                are all the off-field obstacles that tend to slow down a player’s 
                rags-to-riches story. As much as we want sports to be about the 
                best players will play, coaches (as well as scouts and general 
                managers on the pro level) hate to admit their initial evaluation 
                of a player was wrong. Other times, a player simply isn’t 
                ready to burst on the scene when we want him to, dealing with 
                some personal issue we don’t know about or simply too immature 
                to deal with the pressures of the job. There are a multitude of 
                reasons for not realizing one’s potential; all we can hope 
                is that our players recognize they are professionals and bring 
                their A-game to the field each and every week. Either way, part of the formula to winning fantasy championships 
                every season is to identify the supposed nameless wonders who 
                are contributing virtually nothing at the moment but are primed 
                for the opportunity to be second-half standouts with a little 
                luck. Some of the players below are known quantities that have 
                been shoved to the wayside because of injury or some other reason, 
                but my goal this week is to remind – or introduce, in some 
                cases – players to you that probably are likely not on rosters 
                (and if they are, they are dirt cheap). While there are several 
                more players we could discuss in a column such as this one, I 
                identified 10 players I believe can either get help you through 
                the bye weeks or injuries, become regular starters before the 
                end of the season and/or serve as a solid player for your dynasty 
                team.  To give you some perspective on how deep some of my more leagues 
                are, I’ll give you an example from the league I consider 
                to be my most important: 48 of the 52 top-scoring backs and 50 
                of the top-scoring 51 receivers are owned. (At running back, the 
                free agents are Chris Ogbonnaya, Ahmad Bradshaw, Mike Tolbert 
                and James Starks. At receiver, the lone free agent of the bunch 
                is Julio Jones.) The recommendations below are for owners in very 
                deep 12-team (or larger) leagues with fairly deep benches. While 
                there is a good chance some of the players below are owned in 
                your league, I’m quite confident all of them are not.  The Names You Should Already Know  
                  Dunbar is the best fantasy backup to DeMarco 
                    Murray.  Lance 
                Dunbar, RB Dallas – Dunbar may not qualify as one of 
                the top five handcuffs in fantasy football, but I would argue 
                the owner of DeMarco 
                Murray in every league should have him on his roster. Rookie 
                Joseph 
                Randle appears to be in line to start Week 7 and will generate 
                the most interest from fantasy owners, but Dunbar is the better 
                fantasy back of the two and a player the coaches love. Randle 
                was drafted this April in large part because Cowboys owner Jerry 
                Jones believed he “mirrored” Murray, but the main reason he fell 
                in the draft was because he lacked big-play ability. Dunbar has 
                the explosiveness Randle lacks but lacks the ideal size, which 
                probably means the two will share snaps when both are healthy 
                and Murray is not. With that said, I would expect Dallas to go 
                with a very pass-heavy approach with Murray out and the defense 
                beat up. That favors the second-year back, who Tony 
                Romo trusts as a receiver. The one caveat: hamstring injuries 
                are unpredictable and there’s no guarantee Dunbar beats Murray 
                back on the field. Shonn 
                Greene, RB Tennessee – While I can understand why Greene 
                is available in every one of my redraft leagues, it doesn’t mean 
                he should be. The natural argument will be if someone as explosive 
                as Chris 
                Johnson isn’t getting yards behind the Titans’ offensive line, 
                why would a plodder like Greene? It’s a fair point, but when you 
                combine the loss of QB Jake Locker with a long stretch of difficult 
                run defenses, it is not as if Johnson has “lost it”. I firmly 
                believe Johnson will begin to “awaken” a bit this week before 
                putting together a solid second half of the season, but his upside 
                will be limited by the fact he will not see goal-line carries. 
                Enter Greene, who the Titans wanted to use in that role while 
                also giving Johnson a break every third series or so. So while 
                I believe Johnson offers some second-half low-end RB2 appeal, 
                that doesn’t mean the coaching staff will continue feeding him 
                the ball at the rate they have been with a healthy Greene around. 
                Johnson has never been particularly good at breaking tackles (which 
                is definitely the case again this year) and the team refuses to 
                use him in the same fashion the late OC Mike Heimerdinger did 
                during his best seasons. Unlike last year, Tennessee has the defense 
                necessary to stick with the run for as long as it wants and that 
                dedication to the rushing attack will begin to pay off as the 
                Titans stop playing the Jets, Chiefs and Seahawks (their last 
                three opponents) and start playing the Rams, Jaguars and Colts 
                (their next three foes after the Week 8 bye). As Tennessee begins 
                to impose its will on defenses over the second half of the season, 
                Johnson and Greene should have a fair amount of scoring opportunities. 
                Relying on short-yardage touchdowns is not a recipe for fantasy 
                success, but the Titans’ plan all along was to use Greene like 
                LenDale White during the days of “Smash-and-Dash”. I feel confident 
                that Greene will see enough work to be a decent – if not strong 
                – flex option upon his return, which could happen as soon as this 
                week. Chris 
                Ogbonnaya, RB Cleveland – Wait, what…isn’t Willis 
                McGahee the new unquestioned back for the Browns? Well, yes 
                and no. McGahee carries the ground game for the most part, which 
                is just great when Cleveland’s defense has everything under control. 
                However, it should be noted that McGahee has played 29 or fewer 
                snaps in two of the last three weeks while Ogbonnaya has seen 
                at least 40 in two of his last three games. The reason: part of 
                it is his ability to contribute as a receiver and familiarity 
                with the passing game, which figures to play a key role in his 
                ability to be a borderline flex play over the next month or so 
                – at least in PPR formats. For various reasons, Ogbonnaya could 
                be a regular target as Cleveland faces the Packers, Chiefs, Ravens, 
                Bengals and Steelers over its next five contests. Even in its 
                weakened state, the Green Bay offense should score against Cleveland 
                while the Browns’ AFC North rivals can all stop the run. It is 
                conceivable that McGahee isn’t seeing a lot of time when the Browns 
                pass (47 passing-play snaps in his first four games in Cleveland 
                versus Ogbonnaya’s 171 such snaps in six contests, per Pro Football 
                Focus) and that the 27-year-old hybrid tailback/fullback could 
                be more valuable than the ex-Bronco and Bill. Cordarrelle 
                Patterson, WR Minnesota – Somewhere in the mess of 
                the season the Vikings have created for themselves, the first-round 
                rookie has been forgotten or ignored. (You already know about 
                my disdain for OC Bill Musgrave if you are a regular reader of 
                this column, so the fact Minnesota isn’t maximizing its potential 
                on offense should come as little surprise.) Few will argue that 
                Jerome 
                Simpson is a NFL-quality receiver, but his best role is that 
                of a situational deep threat; Patterson is a big receiver who 
                excels in space. (Does that sound like someone the Vikings used 
                to have?) Per Pro Football Focus, Patterson has played a total 
                of 63 snaps this season (or less than half the number of Jarius 
                Wright, for some perspective) and seen fewer than 20 snaps 
                in every game. At some point that is going to change; if not because 
                Minnesota continues to lose and wants to get its youngsters some 
                more playing time, perhaps it will be because Musgrave has been 
                given his walking papers or Greg 
                Jennings gets hurt. When that day comes, owners will want 
                Patterson on their roster. However, my recommendation is not strictly 
                based on what should happen on the depth chart, it is in part 
                because new starting QB Josh Freeman is more of a downfield thrower 
                (and overall better quarterback) than either Christian 
                Ponder or Matt 
                Cassel. Is Freeman a significant upgrade? Probably, but I’m 
                not sure that we’ll be able to see how much better he is than 
                his predecessors until he gets a handful of starts and digests 
                the playbook over the next month or so. So, with an upgrade at 
                quarterback and the hopeful realization (and based on Musgrave’s 
                track record, hopeful is the correct word choice) that a big-play 
                all-purpose threat like Patterson has to play at least half of 
                his team’s snaps, I suggest owners pick him up and stash him. 
                It may take a while longer, but his upside is higher than just 
                about any other receiver that is readily available in redraft 
                leagues.  The Names You Likely Just Became Familiar 
                With Recently Jarrett 
                Boykin, WR Green Bay – The immediate reaction is that 
                he’ll be a one-week pickup with little-to-no upside when James 
                Jones returns (if he even misses a game) while Jermichael 
                Finley sees more time in the slot. I’m not so sure he doesn’t 
                become a semi-permanent fixture with a solid game against Cleveland 
                this week, which is certainly possible given how easily Kris Durham 
                posted an eight-catch-game last week against the Browns (mostly 
                against the cornerback opposite Joe 
                Haden, Buster 
                Skrine). Boykin isn’t a candidate to fill in for Randall 
                Cobb in the slot, but if the undrafted free agent rewards 
                Aaron 
                Rodgers’ preseason 
                confidence in him with a strong performance in Week 7, then 
                Green Bay may choose to leave Jones and Boykin on the outside 
                and ask Nelson to take on some of Cobb’s slot duties.  Kris 
                Durham, WR Detroit – Like Boykin, Durham is hardly 
                an overwhelming talent. In fact, there’s little question Ryan 
                Broyles is the superior option opposite Calvin 
                Johnson, but the snap count would seem to suggest there are 
                some trust issues – either with Broyles’ knee or with the receiver 
                himself. Durham has played 197 of a possible 211 snaps over the 
                last three weeks while Broyles has seen 120 over that same time 
                (per Pro Football Focus). Despite athletic limitations, there 
                are several reasons to buy Durham going forward: 1) as a former 
                college teammate of Matthew 
                Stafford, there is history and obvious 
                rapport between the two; 2) as a member of a pass-happy offense 
                receiving starter’s snaps opposite Calvin Johnson, he will never 
                be a focal point of the defensive gameplan; and 3) Nate 
                Burleson is still a few weeks away from returning and Broyles 
                is already seeing fewer snaps than Durham even though Broyles 
                is “healthy”. Also, keep in mind that Burleson and Broyles are 
                best utilized as slot receivers, meaning the 6-6, 216-pound Durham 
                has staying power as long as he continues to “win his matchups” 
                and maintains his reliability as Stafford suggested in the linked 
                article. Barring a long-term injury to Johnson, last week’s 8-83-0 
                line will go down as one of Durham’s finer performances. With 
                that said, his size and Detroit’s pass-happy offense mean he could 
                regularly step into the production Burleson enjoyed before his 
                injury.  The Names You Might Forget As Quickly 
                As You See Them Michael 
                Cox, RB NY Giants – HC Tom Coughlin has repeatedly 
                stated that his 2013 seventh-round draft choice is not ready, 
                but Cox remains perhaps my favorite dynasty-league stash. (I spent 
                $15 of my $100 budget this week to get him in my 12-team, 24-man 
                roster experts’ dynasty league.) I’ll get into the reasons for 
                why I value him so highly in dynasty in just a second, but there 
                could actually be a hint of redraft appeal here as well. ESPN 
                New York reported earlier this week that Cox was told by the coaches 
                he would play this week against the Minnesota Vikings. Usually, 
                that kind of “report” doesn’t mean much, at least until we consider 
                the fact David 
                Wilson will probably miss at least a month and the Giants 
                don’t have any player that knows the offense beyond 31-year-old 
                Brandon 
                Jacobs. Coughlin stated, "There are some things that I think 
                right now we feel good about (and) other things not so [good],” 
                in regards to Cox, which suggests he is more than ready as a runner 
                (as he showed in the preseason) and not as much as a blocker. 
                There is no doubt in my mind he brings more to the table than 
                Jacobs, so he’ll need to prove he isn’t a liability in pass protection 
                in order to warrant any kind of serious fantasy value this season. 
                Regarding his dynasty appeal, Andre 
                Brown can come back in Week 10, but has shown an inability 
                to stay healthy throughout and is on a one-year contract. Assuming 
                he somehow last the rest of 2013, Jacobs is unlikely to return 
                as well. Peyton 
                Hillis is even more of a stopgap option than Jacobs is. At 
                6-1, 214 pounds, Cox has the size to work in tandem with Wilson 
                and take on the role that Brown was supposed to fill this season 
                for a team that prides itself on running the ball. Khiry 
                Robinson, RB New Orleans – The cat is already out of 
                the bag a little bit on one of several players I 
                highlighted during the preseason (scroll to the bottom of 
                the linked page). There are a few reasons why Robinson is a risky 
                proposition, with Mark 
                Ingram’s pending return and the Saints’ committee backfield 
                among them. Like Cox above, I have little question about Robinson’s 
                ability as a runner and believe he is a solid long-term prospect. 
                Although he is not quite as violent or explosive as Chris 
                Ivory, he is a smarter runner with better balance; I also 
                believe his long-term real and fantasy upside is higher than either 
                Ingram’s or Ivory’s. As I stated in the introduction, I’m fairly 
                certain Robinson will be the new Ivory in New Orleans based on 
                the front office’s desire to give Ingram every chance to succeed, 
                but that doesn’t mean the former first-rounder is the better player. 
                I actually believe that Robinson and Travaris 
                Cadet are more than capable of becoming the Saints’ primary 
                backfield components in 2015 when Ingram, Pierre 
                Thomas and Darren 
                Sproles will all become free agents. New Orleans will almost 
                certainly add another running back or two to the mix between now 
                and then, but the future of its backfield is in good hands regardless. Mike 
                Brown, WR Jacksonville – Of all the players listed, 
                this is probably the lowest-upside recommendation with a very 
                small window to be productive in 2013. Having said that, it is 
                hard to believe Cecil 
                Shorts will play – much less be productive – when he is having 
                trouble raising his arm above his head. Shorts was diagnosed with 
                a sprained sternoclavicular joint that he suffered early in Week 
                6, which is the same injury that sidelined Ben 
                Roethlisberger for three weeks last season. Brown is hardly 
                the talent Shorts is, but he was another player I identified during 
                the preseason as a player that impressed me. Brown showed good 
                hands in Week 6 in relief of an in an injured Shorts and an ability 
                to find the soft spots in zone coverage, which is sometimes half 
                the battle with young receivers. Justin 
                Blackmon is going to draw some serious attention following 
                his huge performance against the Broncos, so Brown will be a regular 
                target for any games Shorts may be forced to miss. Brown is at 
                best a fringe option in 14- and 16-team leagues at the moment, 
                but he could easily work his way into 12-team league consideration 
                if Shorts is slow to heal. Tim 
                Wright, TE Tampa Bay – Bucs OC Mike Sullivan has called 
                his new undrafted 6-4, 220-pound rookie out of Rutgers “a slow 
                receiver, but a dynamic tight end”. And that’s exactly how it 
                looks over his last two games; the Bucs are giving him about one 
                “shot” play per game and hitting him with a bunch of underneath 
                patterns. Better yet, his success is sustainable because Tampa 
                Bay does not possess a quality third receiver and he is regularly 
                drawing a linebacker in coverage. As most would expect of someone 
                of his size, he is rarely on the field on run plays (26 of his 
                127 snaps have come as a run blocker, per Pro Football Focus), 
                so it is best to think of him as a part-time player who will play 
                about half of his team’s snaps. While most owners will probably 
                start putting out waiver claims this week hoping to catch lightning 
                in a bottle after a seven-catch, 91-yard performance, I’ve seen 
                enough after two games to believe he is the rare unearthed gem 
                that could become a regular fantasy starter in short order. He 
                has caught 12 of his 15 targets over the last two weeks and has 
                no legitimate competition for his role. He has exploitable matchups 
                in each of the next two weeks (Atlanta and Carolina) and four 
                of the next five (Miami and Atlanta) after a difficult stop at 
                Seattle in Week 9.
 Suggestions, comments, about the article 
                or fantasy football in general? E-mail 
                me or follow me on Twitter. 
                
 Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and appeared in 
              USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in 2010 and 
              2011. He is also the host of USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff 
              fantasy football internet chat every Sunday. Doug regularly appears 
              as a fantasy football analyst on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy 
              Drive” and for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). 
              He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
 |