If the preseason is beginning, it can mean only one thing: my initial division-by-division projections must be coming to an end.

Sad as that may be for many of my loyal readers, it does mean that my favorite part of my summer writing schedule is just around the corner. For me, it means I can finally unwrap that present that has teased me for over a month. Unlike many other fantasy writers and analysts, I really don’t know how I truly feel about a player until I’ve put him this four-week grind and sort the players out by average and position. Only then do I allow myself to compare the players as a whole. But all the fantasy football predictions in the world are meaningless unless they can be put to use in one handy draft-day tool, which I refer to as “The Big Boards”. I have enjoyed a great amount of success since I began using this system back in 2008 and, based on the e-mails I receive, it appears many others have experienced similar success. However, I’d be the first to admit that even with the best draft-day tools at your disposal, fantasy football is often won by the moves made during the season. Like the real thing, the draft only sets the stage for what we hope is a successful four-month run.

But before we can get there, we need to resolve the here and now. And this week, that means we will take our fourth and final look at my game-by-game breakdown of each division. By now, many readers understand my methodology: securing as many good matchups during the regular season (and particularly the fantasy playoffs) as possible. Think back to all the times in your life you have heard some variation of the following from a respected analyst: “It is all about the matchup.” While it isn’t “all” about the matchup, there is still plenty of truth to it. In its early years, football was about winning the physical battle and imposing your will on the other team. While that part of football is unlikely to ever change, offensive football now is about creating mismatches. For example, slot receivers were rarely ever featured and often the team’s third-best receiver as recently as 10 years ago. Now, many teams realize the advantages of plugging their top receiver (or even their tight end) into that spot. If our job as owners is to make sure we put our players in the best position to succeed (as any good coach should), then why wouldn’t we want as many good matchups in our favor as possible?

Here’s a quick explanation of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this matchup is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

Here are some final notes to help you understand what you see below in the tables:

Notes:

1. The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season.
   
   
2. These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. Changes may come in the form of a different-colored matchup and/or a player’s “game log”. In some cases, a strong preseason may warrant the inclusion of one name in a team projection and the removal of another.
   
   
3. For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game. Additionally, players with fewer than 10 projected catches or 100 projected yards have been removed, which will explain the discrepancy in some of the quarterback’s final numbers.
   
   
4. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2013.
   

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC West

Matchup analysis: From a personnel standpoint, Manning has a shot to take a run at Tom Brady’s single-season passing touchdown mark (50 in 2007) and the schedule doesn’t figure to present much of an obstacle. The two biggest challenges for this passing attack will come in Weeks 1 and 16 with very little resistance in between. Welker could have a hard time in Week 1 if Lardarius Webb is healthy and Demaryius Thomas may have some issues against “shadow” CB Johnathan Joseph in Week 16, but the rest of the slate should be relatively easy for all three of Manning’s top weapons against a series of opponents that lack two – much less three – quality cornerbacks that can harass them. Julius Thomas has a chance to be another solid threat, but he’ll obviously take a back seat to the three receivers if he can stay healthy. Given the relative ease in which the wideouts should get open, he (or Dreessen) will likely be reduced to little more than a red-zone option. The Broncos should have plenty of leads to protect, so it is possible they will pile on the rushing yards late in games. Like Manning & Co., the toughest matchups figure to be against Baltimore and Houston with plenty of winnable matchups in between. The second part of the schedule appears to be slightly more difficult than the first, but neither half figures to be overly daunting.

Matchup analysis: Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy were about as matchup-proof as fantasy running backs could be under Reid and Charles should be no different. In fact, his speed may make him the best fit of any back Reid has coached. Charles doesn’t figure to come off the field much and should push 2,000 total yards against a schedule that is a bit challenging in the middle, but very forgiving at the beginning and end of the season. Smith will get a nice lift simply from the high volume of passes he will likely throw, but he could still be a dicey fantasy QB2 despite a relatively soft early slate simply because so much of his success will depend on Bowe. It’s not as if the seventh-year wideout isn’t capable of carrying the passing attack at times – he’s done it with some of the worst quarterbacking in the league – but strong passing offenses are not typically built around only one receiver and a running back. With that said, Bowe could (and should) dominate early and late during the fantasy season while a high volume of targets will help him through a difficult middle part of the schedule. Avery and Baldwin each have the talent and schedule to do so much more than what they are projected to do, but neither one has taken advantage of the numerous opportunities they have received to this point.

Matchup analysis: This offense figures to go only as far as McFadden can take it this season, although he will be doing so in a run-blocking scheme that is tailor-made for his skill set. Only two teams (Pittsburgh and Houston) figure to have the ability to put a lid on McFadden, although playing from behind – as was the case a lot last season – may prevent him from being able to reach his true fantasy potential. Still, there are enough cautionary matchups – including at least two during the fantasy playoffs – that McFadden should be slip into the third round of drafts when his injury history is factored into the equation. There is very little to get excited about at quarterback since Flynn is unlikely to be able to take advantage of Moore’s game-breaking ability and will probably be looking over his shoulder at Wilson. Moore and Streater are both capable of posting usable fantasy numbers as WR4 options, although there will be plenty of weeks they should be avoided as well – especially over the back half of the season. Much like Myers last season, the fantasy darling from this passing game might come in the form of Ausberry, who figures to be on the receiving end of a number of short passes when Oakland enters comeback mode.

Matchup analysis: No one will question Rivers forced some throws last season, but his recent slide has to be attributed as much to the falloff in talent around him (at the skill positions and on the offensive line) as it can to an erosion of his skills. Rivers will see plenty of aggressive defenses in 2013, but he and his receivers will not face an overwhelming number of top-flight cornerbacks – especially before the bye. In fact, Rivers could be a decent fantasy quarterback until the second half of the season when San Diego faces a number of teams that have elite pass rushers, great cornerbacks or both. There are plenty of potentially good matchups for the Chargers’ receivers and tight ends, although it would not be wise to expect Gates to exploit them all as he did when he was younger since he has shown an inability to hold up in recent years. Brown has also displayed a propensity to injury, which may clear the path for Allen. Although the rookie is reportedly behind right now, he is highly likely to be forced into action around midseason given the fragility of the Chargers’ wideouts. Consistent production in the running game was already going to be an issue with a poor offensive line, but we also have every reason to believe that Mathews and Woodhead will share the load fairly equally. There are plenty of matchups that could be exploited in the first half of the season, but the post-bye slate – as it is for the passing game – is one to avoid for both backs.

NFC West

Matchup analysis: As has been with the case with Arians’ offenses for years, the passing game will determine how much progress Arizona makes in the standings this season. Because he plans on moving Fitzgerald all over the formation, it will likely take nothing short of “shadow” coverage from a healthy Darrelle Revis and Richard Sherman to contain him in 2013 – and even that might be a stretch in this vertical-based offense. While he won’t command near the attention from Palmer as Fitzgerald will, Floyd should enjoy a breakout second season with a schedule that features a total of four non-positive matchups. A matchup for both wideouts against the Seahawks’ defense in Week 16 is a downer, however. Housler’s slate is slightly less attractive, but few teams have the personnel to match up with his size-speed combination; as a result, he should be a handful for the teams expected to have elite defenses such as Houston and Seattle. Mendenhall – and any other Cardinals’ running back for that matter – was already in line for a tough season thanks to the offensive line, but he has a dreadful six-game stretch over the middle part of the season that may cause owners to lose faith in him. The beginning and end of his schedule is no picnic either, since St. Louis could easily have a top 10 run defense, Detroit should be markedly better in all areas and Seattle is downright nasty.